Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

This deserves a thread of it's own?

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: ufoorbhunter

This deserves a thread of it's own?

Certainly does Mr Carpy. Someone who knows how to start one. I've forgotten as no UFO sightings for quite some time

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Even using tactical nuclear weapons sets a very dangerous precedent. Even China would strongly condemn it and I suspect withdraw all support for Russia. They would be left with only North Korea and Iran as allies and I think even they would be hesitant.
I think the least that would happen would be all out war....it would be an incredibly risky and massive gamble by Putin and Russia would be even more of a pariah on the world stage than what it is now.

There can be no justification for any first strike use of nuclear weapons.....the whole world is more than aware now of the damage and harm they cause and the risk of escalation and M.A.D.

Is this just more sabre rattling and posturing by Putin aimed more for domestic propaganda outlets?
I suspect so but one just doesn't know for sure.
I for one would never advocate caving in and backing down to a bully and a dictator like Putin......but then again I'm far away from the war zone and rapidly approaching 60.

a reply to: Freeborn

Who knows if they are sabre rattling, or not?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

I'm inclined to say # 'em, bring it on.
Obviously one of the many reasons why I'm not a politician or diplomat.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

I'd do it but it takes me ages and am busy with w*rk and stuff.

a reply to: Freeborn

"Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough"?

Could this war lead to the collapse of Russia? And what might happen.

A long but interesting read:

foreignpolicy.com...

"There are various scenarios for what might happen in Russia after defeat in Ukraine becomes even clearer. Most likely is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s departure from office, followed by a vicious power struggle among the extreme right-wing nationalists who want to continue the war effort and destroy the existing political hierarchy, authoritarian conservatives who have a stake in the system, and a resurgent semi-democratic movement committed to ending the war and reforming Russia. We don’t know who will win, but we can confidently predict that the power struggle will weaken the regime and distract Russia from what remains of its war effort. In turn, a weakened regime, in conjunction with a malfunctioning economy, will invite disgruntled Russians to take to the streets, perhaps even with arms, and encourage some of the non-Russian political units comprising the Russian Federation to opt for greater self-rule; leading candidates include Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, Dagestan, and Sakha. If Russia survives this turmoil, it’s likely to become a weak client state of China. If it does not, the map of Eurasia could look very different."

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Hi mate. OK, posted it on WW3 forum for you, quoting your post. Hope you don't mind?

Russian Islander missiles scored a direct hit on a parade ground and canteen as electronic warfare trainees gathered in Poltava in northeastern Ukraine.

Dozens of military recruits scrambled for cover after being alerted by sirens but were blown up in the blast before they could reach for safety.

The attack was aimed at cadets from specialist military unit A3990 at the Institute of Communications but also damaged a nearby hospital.

Many people are now trapped under the rubble after buildings collapsed in the horror strike.

www.thesun.co.uk...

Who knows if they are sabre rattling, or not?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

We know that Putin is evil enough to use nuclear weapons

Whether he is deranged enough to do so is problematic .......

saw a clip the other day looks like someone has figured out how to drop thermite from a drone.

How terrifying... I was on a hike monday in the hills and I could hear a small drone up over head and I could not identify exactly where it was.

Could not imagine that fear on a battlefield.

originally posted by: Imhere
Russian Islander missiles scored a direct hit on a parade ground and canteen as electronic warfare trainees gathered in Poltava in northeastern Ukraine.
www.thesun.co.uk...

Don't you mean Iskander instead of Islander?

I know The Sun is a tabloid, but I thought even a tabloid would know the difference. My expectations weren't as high for you since your sources are sometimes not very good, case in point.

I wonder if The Sun has auto-correct; that trips me up on my phone sometimes, but they should have proofreaders.

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
Russian Islander missiles scored a direct hit on a parade ground and canteen as electronic warfare trainees gathered in Poltava in northeastern Ukraine.
www.thesun.co.uk...

Don't you mean Iskander instead of Islander?

I know The Sun is a tabloid, but I thought even a tabloid would know the difference. My expectations weren't as high for you since your sources are sometimes not very good, case in point.

I wonder if The Sun has auto-correct; that trips me up on my phone sometimes, but they should have proofreaders.

I’m well aware of the Sun tabloid.

Are you familar with "Sniff" and "Scurry" and "Hem" and "Haw" ?


A look back down memory lane in March:

originally posted by: Imhere

originally posted by: Kenzo
a reply to: Imhere

The 3 days was from fsb leaked documents, which analyst think were genuine source .

DOOMED TO FAIL How deluded Putin thought he would defeat Ukraine in 3 DAYS, leaked docs show – as disastrous war rages one year on

Again, any source where Putin officially stated he would capture it in exactly “3 days” ?

Besides some single “theSUN.uk” article? Which apparently some “analyst” thought was “genuine”?

originally posted by: Arbitrageur

originally posted by: Imhere
Again, any source where Putin officially stated he would capture it in exactly “3 days” ?

Besides some single “theSUN.uk” article? Which apparently some “analyst” thought was “genuine”?

From that article:

“Who’s going to be the one who actually says ‘Vladimir Vladimirovich that’s not actually the way things are’.”

Nobody, that's who. At least nobody who wants to keep their job, because Putin wants people to tell him what he wants to hear, not the truth.

Whether it was 3 days or 2 weeks is not the point. The point in the article is correct, that the downside of being a mad autocratic dictator surrounding himself with people who tell him what he wants to hear is that he doesn't get told the truth, because nobody wants to be the one to tell him the truth. That continues to this day, where Putin still doesn't grasp exactly what is going on, though he started to figure out that Shoigu was lying to him when Shoigu said Russia took Krynky recently, then Ukraine posted a geolocated video to prove Shoigu was lying. Then Putin talked to one of the commanders and confronted Shoigu because the field commander told Putin they didn't have Krynky like Shoigu said.

Putin really believed that Ukraine would rise up against Zelensky and welcome Russia and that it would happen quickly, and multiple sources have confirmed that Putin was outraged when that didn't happen and Ukraine fought back. Putin himself said he could take Ukraine in 2 weeks, back in 2014:

Hubris and isolation led Vladimir Putin to misjudge Ukraine

Putin’s misconception about Ukrainian weakness was paired with a swaggering view of Russian power. He famously boasted to a top European official in late 2014 that he could easily seize Kyiv “in two weeks” if he desired — a misconception he appeared to continue believing until he attempted to do so.

Putin Tells European Official That He Could ‘Take Kiev in Two Weeks’

So 3 days or 2 weeks doesn't really matter, what matters is Putin was living in a fantasy bubble that Ukraine would fall quickly in either time frame, and that obviously was not the real reality. And Putin was really mad when his fantasy didn't materialize. Maybe if Putin allowed people to tell him the truth, or didn't ignore or fire or imprison or even kill those who do, he wouldn't have made such a huge blunder.

You use “The Sun”

Just figured I’d pick that as a source, for those that are familiar with it. Such as yourself, Gortex, Kenzo and some others here that apparently follow it as the gospel etc.

As an American, I look at all sources, from all sides. If you want one dimensional information/news there’s MSM or MSNBC with Rachael maddow etc for that.

They live in a maze, a representation of one's environment, and they look for cheese, representative of happiness and success. Initially without cheese, the mice and humans pair off and explore the lengthy corridors searching for cheese. One day both groups discover a cheese-filled corridor at "Cheese Station C". Content with their find, the humans establish routines around their daily intake of cheese, slowly becoming arrogant in the process.

en.wikipedia.org...

originally posted by: Irishhaf
saw a clip the other day looks like someone has figured out how to drop thermite from a drone.

How terrifying... I was on a hike monday in the hills and I could hear a small drone up over head and I could not identify exactly where it was.

Could not imagine that fear on a battlefield.

Imagine if they started using fuel air bombs 😳 sure, they have used the little hand launched ones but why not give something with a little oomph a whirl.

4 September Update

Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Lviv City, Lviv Oblast and Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during another mid-sized combined drone and missile strike on the night of September 3 to 4.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced on September 4 that Germany will provide 17 additional IRIS-T air defense systems to Ukraine by 2026.

Ukrainian officials announced a series of resignations and appointments among senior members of the Ukrainian cabinet on September 3 and 4.

Ukrainian forces reportedly made marginal advances in Kursk Oblast amid continued fighting throughout the Ukrainian salient on September 4.

Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions west of Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: Dalamax

en.m.wikipedia.org...

I believe Russia used these type of weapons in Cechnya.

They have smaller rocket launchers deployed.

I'm no expert but I think that the ones used in Afghanistan by the US hd to be delivered by Hercules so delivery of these by dropping them from slow moving vulnerable aircraft could be problematic.

Most if not all of you are aware that corruption is rampant in Russia, especially in the military. In fact I still wonder if Russia would have taken Kyiv in the first month of the invasion if its convoy from Belarus hadn't run out of fuel because the fuel they needed to get to Kyiv was sold on the black market in Belarus. Also, trucks were getting flat tires because the military officials bought cheap Chinese tires instead of the military grade tires they were supposed to buy, and so on.

I think it was earlier this year, then defense minister Shoigu was caught lying to Putin about capturing Krynky and he was soon demoted, and a new defense minister was named that has no military experience. Inside Russia says the new defense minister has apparently had the FSB arrest 13 generals since March of this year, through this week, for corruption, fraud, theft type charges, and expects that the pattern of arrests is not yet finished.

Did Putin just change the rules of the game for these generals, where he allowed, or perhaps even condoned corruption, as long as he got his cut, and did he suddenly wake up one day and realize that the Russian military would be a lot more powerful if so much of the military budget wasn't being diverted in corruption schemes?

Russia's Minister Of Defense Has Lost Control Of The Army | 13 Generals Have Been Arrested So Far


Inside Russia is thinking that the loss of such a vast amount of experienced leadership in Russia's military might be a good thing for Ukraine. Maybe, but what about the flip side, meaning if more of the military budget actually goes to military purchases instead of being diverted in corruption schemes, Russia's military might actually get strong enough to stop being the subject of so many global jokes about it being a paper tiger. They have about tripled military expenditures as a percent of GDP since 2021, though between that and big reductions of oil and gas revenue they are going broke doing it, so I expect to see more Russians freezing this coming winter due to lack of infrastructure maintenance.

Meanwhile, I'm seeing more boldness in the younger generation of Russians speaking out. This woman stops short of obviously illegal things like calling the war with Ukraine a war, but she's very critical of Russian leadership in a way I never heard 2 years ago, I wonder if bad things are going to happen to her? Or is this part of a trend where more people are speaking out?

SITUATION IN RUSSIA IS INSANE

One example she gives is that a typical Russian has to work 20 minutes to get enough money to buy 2 eggs! Of course that's not the case for highly paid professionals etc but still, those eggs seem expensive. More broadly she talks about how much help the Russian people need and that Russia would have enough money to help the people if they weren't spending so much of it on something else (She obviously implies the war, but she skirts around the law against criticizing the war by leaving that implied instead of stating it).

I see a generational gap in Russia in more ways than one. A lot of the younger Russians like her have VPNs and can see sources other than state media and she obviously doesn't support what Putin is doing, but I think a lot of the older generation doesn't even know what a VPN is, are brainwashed by state media because that's all they can watch, and still support Putin because they believe the propaganda and aren't fully aware of what exactly he is doing.

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Hi Mr Carpy yes totally awesome posting it I do apologise not responding until nw, you stated same about work, little on last week then crazy 'til 11 last night all in at once, swines

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

It's all good .

W*rk gets I the way of life. Who loves you, baby? 😚