Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

11 May Update

Sources in Ukrainian special services told Ukrainian outlet Suspilne that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted drone strikes against a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd Oblast and damaged the AVT-1 and AVT-6 oil processing facilities and control cables for the facility's air coolers.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast; near Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City; in western Zaporizhia Oblast; and in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Report from the Crimean Tatar underground Atesh resistance movement claims they have a member embedded in the 44th Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces who has reported one of his units refused to go on an assault in Kharkiv Oblast , the report was posted on telegram , he also claims a new symbol of a rhombus with a cross has been painted on military vehicles.

An agent of the Atesh underground resistance movement who serves in one of the motorised rifle battalions of the 44th Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces has said that one of his units flatly refused to go on an assault in Kharkiv Oblast.

Source: Atesh on Telegram

Details: The Atesh agent said that the soldiers of this Russian unit were well aware of the high-quality fortifications on the border. They also witnessed unsuccessful sabotage and reconnaissance operations by Russian troops.

Quote: “In view of this, when new signs in the form of a rhombus with a cross were painted on the equipment and an order was given, part of the unit refused to comply with the criminal will of the command. (The signs, by the way, are painted at the soldiers’ expense.) No one wants to go one way for any money.”
abn.org.ua...

I make no claims to the truth of the report but can understand the reluctance of troops to be sent into a meat grinder having seen what they have so far seen from the Russian military leadership.

"Appeal of the Legion "Freedom of Russia" to Putin's army"


Rough Translation.
"Putin's army has already taken Kharkov
One day we all remember perfectly well what it's over a group of elite was waiting for the Pskov special forces reinforcements which in the end never came.
I waited, they all burned down at school having received bitterness from the locals resident repeat Potri in

My Russian soldiers feel great burns in the Armed Forces equipment and tanks of the Russian army you , you go on the assault and steps over the bodies your yesterday's brothers-in-arms, you are definitely you want to die for the Kremlin’s ambitions you really want to sacrifice yourself for the sake of some bandits who are sitting in Kremlin and command you captured and remain alive and well , you have every right not to comply criminal orders of your local commanders in uniform.

You have complete right to life And for this we give Start path of honor programs for voluntary surrender of all Russians for our part, we promise you a safe exit from the battlefield , anonymity food and medical care , those who want to stay safe Ukrainian prisoners will be given given opportunity But those who want to fight the Putin regime with us You have every right and opportunity to join the Russian Freedom Legion or RDK or Sibirsky battalion all the information you can read on Save screen.

12 May Update

Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced Sergei Shoigu with Andrei Belousov as Russian Minister of Defense on May 12, moving Shoigu to the position of Security Council Secretary in place of Nikolai Patrushev. . . . A prominent Kremlin-awarded milblogger noted that Belousov's new role "means the beginning of a large-scale audit and restructuring of all financial models" in the Russian MoD.

Ukrainian outlets Ukrainska Pravda and RBK Ukraine cited sources in Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) as stating that the GUR conducted strikes with Ukrainian-made drones against the Kaluganefteprodukt oil depot in Kaluga Oblast, the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk Oblast, and the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast overnight on May 11 to 12.

German outlet Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on May 11 that German Bundestag members Roderich Kiesewetter of the Christian Democrat Union Party, Agnieszka Brugger of the Green Party, and Marcus Faber of the Free Democratic Party expressed support for using NATO air defenses in countries bordering Ukraine, such as Poland and Romania, to intercept Russian drones over western Ukraine to allow Ukrainian air defenders to focus on protecting frontline areas.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

The corrupt President of Russia has finally moved his corrupt and inept friend from a position where he was filling his pockets but causing problems to a position overseeing the military-industrial complex where he can continue filling his pockets but do less damage ... possibly.

Bye Bye Sergei , If I were you I wouldn't be catching any planes.


Meanwhile , the US are delivering the long awaited military aid to Ukraine via Poland.


Chin up chaps , the Americans are here !

"We are fools, our equipment was shot down, soldiers are dead" , a Russian postcard from Kharkiv.

13 May Update

Russian forces continued to make tactically significant advances north and northeast of Kharkiv City on May 13

Russian opposition news outlet Astra reported, citing a source in the Crimean occupation Ministry of Emergency Services, that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air defense base of the 3rd Radio Engineering Regiment (Russian Aerospace Forces' [VKS] radio engineering troops) on Mount Ai-Petri in occupied Crimea on May 13

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful missile strikes against a Russian air defense base in occupied Crimea and successful drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in Russia.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

More at URL above.

Cheers

14 May Update

Geolocated footage published on May 14 purportedly shows the aftermath of a likely Ukrainian drone strike against a train in Samofalovka. The train was allegedly transporting fuel.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Krynky.

More at URL above.

Cheers

So this is the 3rd time Robotyne has changed hands... Czech President does not sound too optimistic about Ukraine's ability to recover its lost territory

Faytuks News
@Faytuks
·
11m
The capture of Robotyne will speed up the Russian advance in the direction of Orikhiv, Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast tells TASS

www.msn.com...

Pavel thinks it is not very likely that Ukraine will be able to regain control over all of its territory in the foreseeable future. Though he said that no one is denying the possibility that Ukraine might at some point join NATO, Pavel said it was important to make it clear that this will not create a direct threat to Russia.

Faytuks News
@Faytuks
·
11m
The capture of Robotyne will speed up the Russian advance in the direction of Orikhiv, Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast tells TASS

15 May Update

The Kremlin confirmed the appointments of the newly formed Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) and other military district commanders on May 15.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Siversk, and west of Donetsk City.

Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reportedly struck a Russian fuel depot in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 14 to 15.

More at URL above.

Cheers

16 May Update

Ukrainian intelligence sources told several Ukrainian outlets that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) conducted successful drone strikes against the "Bazalt" defense industrial plant, which produces weapons and ammunition for the Russian military. Footage published on May 16 purportedly shows the strike in Tula City.

Ukraine's largest private energy operator DTEK reported energy blackouts in Kyiv City and Oblast on May 14 and stated that blackouts occur without warning. Ukrainian energy company Yasno stated that Russian strikes cause Ukrainian energy operators to conduct emergency blackouts in order to balance the power system.

Russian forces are reportedly able to conduct fixed-wing drone reconnaissance deep in the Ukrainian rear due to Ukraine's lack of air defense interceptors.

Russian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupyansk and Donetsk City.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Ukraine running out of men for the grinder.......................

"Meanwhile, in Ukraine itself it’s emerged president Volodymyr Zelenskiy signed a law allowing some convicts to serve in the army.

A separate law increasing fines for those not opting to join the war effort was also signed, an entry on the Ukrainian parliament’s website showed, according to Reuters."

www.theguardian.com...

originally posted by: putnam6
So this is the 3rd time Robotyne has changed hands... Czech President does not sound too optimistic about Ukraine's ability to recover its lost territory

I don't think any competent analysts genuinely think Ukraine can recover all its territory now. Not on their own anyway, even with Western equipment and aid. The only way they're recovering all that territory is with NATO forces fighting by their side, which is obviously not a good option.

They had a shot at winning in the first year, but the West was too timid and delayed sending the most impactful equipment.

originally posted by: YourFaceAgain

originally posted by: putnam6
So this is the 3rd time Robotyne has changed hands... Czech President does not sound too optimistic about Ukraine's ability to recover its lost territory

I don't think any competent analysts genuinely think Ukraine can recover all its territory now. Not on their own anyway, even with Western equipment and aid. The only way they're recovering all that territory is with NATO forces fighting by their side, which is obviously not a good option.

They had a shot at winning in the first year, but the West was too timid and delayed sending the most impactful equipment.

I do not know, but recall it was big news when Ukraine took Robotyne

It would seem some op-ed writers at the New York Post agree though, so does Blinken, it will be an even more dangerous time now in Ukraine. Putin will turn up the heat, and Ukraine will be desperate to hold what it can.
Now the question is will Putin try and capture more territory?

nypost.com...

In December 2022, the Biden administration secretly modified HIMARS rocket launchers sent to Ukraine so they couldn’t be used to fire long-range missiles into Russia — a precaution it said was necessary “to reduce the risk of a wider war with Moscow.”

Will the new extended-range suite of ATACMS munitions come with the same restrictions?

It is questionable whether the White House ever thought Ukraine could win in the first place.

Afterall, then-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley advised Congress in 2021 that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine took place.

The fall of Ukraine seemed a foregone conclusion.

Yet Ukrainian battlefield successes complicated things.

The war ground to a halt, resembling a World I-like stalemate along a 600-mile front — and despite Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign promise of “no more forever wars,” Ukraine turned into just that.

Last month Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that the end of the war “depends mostly on Vladimir Putin and what he decides.”

Tellingly, he added: “The minute that Russia demonstrates that it’s genuinely willing to negotiate, we’ll certainly be there, and I believe the Ukrainians will be there.”

Days later, Austin stated, “Most conflicts of this nature end in some kind of negotiation and, again, when that happens, we want Ukraine to be in the best possible position so that it can achieve its goals and agree on the right things.”

Essentially, the White House is offering Putin his desired “sanitary zone” in exchange for what’s left of Ukraine’s sovereignty and eventual inclusion into the NATO alliance.

Zelensky will not accept that, nor will Europe: Putin will never abide by it.

Meanwhile, Russia is making incremental advances at a cost of nearly a thousand soldiers a day — and constructing defensive positions as they go to retain it.

Biden’s goal of “weakening Russia” has forced Ukraine to pay a terrible price.

Ukraine is at an inflection point on the battlefield and is finding out that winning outright was never Washington’s intention.

That’s a monumental tragedy not just for Ukrainians but the whole world.

17 May Update

Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on May 17 that its sources in Ukrainian intelligence stated that Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Security Service (SBU) struck Russian military facilities in Novorossiysk and Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai and in occupied Sevastopol on the night of May 16 to 17.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka.

US officials reiterated the White House's unwillingness to support Ukraine's use of US-provided weapons in strikes against military targets in Russia.

More at URL above.

Cheers

18 May Update

Russian forces have recently intensified their effort to seize the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne.

Ukraine's new mobilization law went into effect on May 18 and will help Ukraine stabilize its force generation apparatus amid ongoing manpower constraints.

More at URL above.

Cheers

a reply to: YourFaceAgain

Looks like the French are just looking for an opertunity to enter. Didn't realize how much the French hate the Russians until you start reading their news.

The Russian "Turtle Tanks" are still relatively new to the Ukraine battlefield having appeared in April 2024, and have been evolving, though it's not just evolution, because there appears to be no centrally coordinated effort to implement the shell designs so they are all made differently in the different regional shops that are modifying the tanks.

Usually it's some kind of metal frame welded to the tank, then sheet metal is welded to the frame. The shells typicallly protect the top and sides to some extent from FPV drones, but especially the earlier versions had openings in the back and or front, which Ukraine exploited by flying the FPV drones in those openings. Some more recent versions are closing those openings but in that case the driver can't see, so what they have done in some cases is buy an off-the-shelf Russian backup camera and monitor but instead of using it to back up, they mount it in front and use it to drive. It has a relatively narrow field of view though so they can't see much of what's going on around them on the battlefield. You can see what the driver sees on the monitor in the video below, which is not much past the edges of the de-mining roller in front of the tank.

In addition to the turtle shell, some extra options sometimes seen on the "turtle tanks" are:
-mine clearing rollers
-EW or electronic warfare unit on top to interfere with the drones (again this only affects $400 radio controlled drones, not the newer $1000 AI vision system controlled drones Ukraine is starting to use)
-Smoke generators.

This youtube channel has been making a series of videos showing the evolution of the designs, and this video and others have got over a million views:

Russia's Turtle Tanks Are Evolving


Recently, there has been more video of the "turtle tanks" being destroyed, though it may take more FPV drones to do it once they closed up the openings Ukraine was using before. So the latest video in this series examines if the tide is tuning against the Russian "turtle tanks":

Is The Tide Turning Against Russia's Turtle Tanks?

We continue our series of videos tracking appearances of Russia's tanks equipped with counter-FPV shells - the Turtle Tanks. In the past week there have been a growing number of videos showing the tanks being successfully engaged. Which raises the question: has the tide turned on the Turtle Tanks?

So far the evidence we see like this is somewhat anecdotal, though with the lack of a central design even Russia may not be tracking any reliable statistics on how effective these modifications are, given the varying designs.

So far I haven't seen any examples of Ukraine making "turtle tank" modifications to their own tanks. In addition to poor visibility etc, wouldn't it also make some maintenance operations a problem to have to remove all that welded on cage stuff before you can even start doing the maintenance procedure? And then have to weld it all back on again? Russia's suicide drones seem to have a different design than Ukraine's suicide drones so I'm not sure how much difference that makes.

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
18 May

Russian forces have recently intensified their effort to seize the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne.

Ukraine's new mobilization law went into effect on May 18 and will help Ukraine stabilize its force generation apparatus amid ongoing manpower constraints.

Don’t worry

When Russia takes it coming up, you’ll have Oldcarpy here in 2 seconds declaring it was some “Pyrrhic victory”

Or that it was insignificant like Bahkmut or something lol

Speaking of which, how’s the hailed Tiktok announced “Robotyne offensive” coming along?

a reply to: Imhere

No. I'll be here calling you out for the Putin bootlicker that you are.

Please, show me on the doll where those horrid Ukrainians did hurted you?