Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

The BBC is saying that museums in Moscow have been closed and that anti-terrorism laws have been activated in the regions bordering the Moscow Oblast.
This is getting insane. I knew that the Russian Army was most on the Ukraine, but do they really have next to nothing in the Moscow region?

a reply to: AngryCymraeg

museums in Moscow have been closed.

That's where most of Russia's military equipment comes from.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

Prigozhin seems to be P'O at way Putin has used Wagner as cannon fodder in senseless attacks against Bakhmut

The bad blood is now spilling into the open

Stay toned - may get real interesting

CNN dutifully reporting Western intelligence had no idea this was coming.

I'm not saying the West is behind this but the idea that we had no idea is pretty wild. We've been playing up this guy's tiff with the Russian leadership for months. But yeah, we had no clue.

a reply to: face23785

That said, the situation is extremely dangerous. Russia is a nuclear power. Who knows if they have the command and control and safety protocols over their nuclear weapons that we have. If Putin's government goes down, what happens to their nukes?

Most worrisome are the tactical nukes - they are portable The strategic weapons are too big to move, at least easily and trying to launch them is a complex procedure

The tactical weapons can be removed from their bunker by couple guys in a truck Question is what kind of PAL (permissive Action Links) are used by Russia to prevent unauthorized use

originally posted by: firerescue
a reply to: face23785

That said, the situation is extremely dangerous. Russia is a nuclear power. Who knows if they have the command and control and safety protocols over their nuclear weapons that we have. If Putin's government goes down, what happens to their nukes?

Most worrisome are the tactical nukes - they are portable The strategic weapons are too big to move, at least easily and trying to launch them is a complex procedure

The tactical weapons can be removed from their bunker by couple guys in a truck Question is what kind of PAL (permissive Action Links) are used by Russia to prevent unauthorized use

That's exactly what I was wondering. If some of them do wind up taken, how easy are they to use? Presumably they have similar safeguards to ours. But over the last 2 years we've learned a lot of the things we thought we knew about the Russian military wasn't accurate, at least according to the official narrative. So maybe their nukes aren't all that safe. I hope that's not the case.

originally posted by: face23785
CNN dutifully reporting Western intelligence had no idea this was coming.

I'm not saying the West is behind this but the idea that we had no idea is pretty wild. We've been playing up this guy's tiff with the Russian leadership for months. But yeah, we had no clue.

I was just watching a livestream by youtubers called "Russians with attitude"
Its a pro russian bunch of guys,but anyway they were saying that russian telegram is full of rumors about this all being a US/UK/Israel plot..
While I admit we do like to stick our noses in,often where we are not wanted-In this case I find it a stretch that we are involved.
Maybe those countries had inklings that something like this would happen,but there again so did we here on ATS.
But I really doubt Prigozhn would deal with us as he hates us as much as Putin does.

The Russians with attitude guys made an interesting point that this debacle will lkely make China a lot more reluctant to get invovled or provide more support-as getting betrayed like this will be seen as a MAJOR loss of face by the Chinese-and we all know they would hate to be associated with any loss of precious face!
Hopefully this event will make China think very carefully about their plan for Taiwan-as this is a great illustration of how,whatever your plans-things can spiral out of your control.

If Wagner get close to Moscow-who reckons Putin may throw Sergei Shoigu under the bus to placate Priggy boy?
That would not surprise me.

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse

I was just watching a livestream by youtubers called "Russians with attitude"
Its a pro russian bunch of guys,but anyway they were saying that russian telegram is full of rumors about this all being a US/UK/Israel plot..
While I admit we do like to stick our noses in,often where we are not wanted-In this case I find it a stretch that we are involved.

I dunno. Don't forget, the Obama administration tried to meddle in Putin's internal affairs back in 2011-2012, and this was before Russia took Crimea. Biden was part of that administration. Now, in a much more dire situation where Putin's power is even more precariously in the balance, we're just sitting on the sidelines?

I'd be surprised if that was the case. But I have zero evidence that there's any U.S. involvement. Given our past history though, it would be rather unprecedented for us to just let their internal affairs play out naturally.

I've been switching back and forth between Fox and CNN. Generals on both channels have been saying it's extremely unlikely the Wagner group can overthrow Putin.

In all fairness, same guys who said Ukraine would fall in a few weeks at the start of the war.

a reply to: Silcone Synapse

It is always the fault of the West, or America, or NATO, or the EU, according to Russian 'commenters'.

If they can stop blaming everyone else for their own faults, they may find their way out of this mess without a huge disaster taking place.

Cheers

Side effects should also be considered.

An open challenge like this to Putin's regime may make ordinary Russians a lot more vocal about the war, in particular the way the conscription was implemented.

Cheers

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
Side effects should also be considered.

An open challenge like this to Putin's regime may make ordinary Russians a lot more vocal about the war, in particular the way the conscription was implemented.

Cheers

This. There are so many moving parts here, and many of them balance on human unpredictability.

Also worth remembering none of the geniuses in international affairs and diplomacy saw the fall of the Soviet Union coming in 1990.

BBC are reporting that forward units could reach Moscow by around 8pm.

Seems odd that they can travel in convoy up a motorway through Russia.

What is happening at all those roadblocks?

Surely, travelling in convoy like this should be suicide?

Where is the Russian army and air force?

And, where is Vnex2?

a reply to: face23785

Yes. A lot of outcomes are possible at the moment.

My take is the Russian and Ukrainian views are probably the ones that will land close to reality; the views of other cultures are distorted by various biases (which gets back to your comment about the 'media generals' ).

Cheers

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
BBC are reporting that forward units could reach Moscow by around 8pm.

Seems odd that they can travel in convoy up a motorway through Russia.

What is happening at all those roadblocks?

Surely, travelling in convoy like this should be suicide?

Where is the Russian army and air force?

And, where is Vnex2?

Pure gold. But yeah, where's the AF?

Could be the twitter comments about Prigo not doing this alone have merit. His allies may be hindering the Russian military's response.

Cheers

a reply to: face23785

Maybe because WG have these?

www.armyrecognition.com... ata_sheet_specification.amp.html

Pantsir S1 air defence missiles.

originally posted by: Oldcarpy2
a reply to: face23785

Maybe because WG have these?

www.armyrecognition.com... ata_sheet_specification.amp.html

Pantsir S1 air defence missiles.

If the survival of your regime is on the line, I would think Putin would order them to attack that column whether they have defenses or not. He's been throwing his troops into a meat grinder for the last year and a half. Why wouldn't he now?

a reply to: face23785

Question is, will they obey those orders?

a reply to: Oldcarpy2

Now that would be huge.