Nord Stream has been suspended indefinitely

a reply to: TheRedneck

as is the EU going for a mandatory flatten the curve on energy use during peak hours,

twitter.com...

no wonder they think they'll have trouble this winter

a reply to: nickyw

That is quite concerning... especially the reference to "flatten the curve."

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

A mixed blessing with short-term benefits for Russia: Russia maintains the funds required to pay for their war in Ukraine. The risk of the Russian economy failing, the fall of Putin's regime and a second Russian Civil War breaking out. At face value, Putin's downfall is a positive development. But who would replace Putin and the fate of Russia's nuclear weapons are unknown.

However, in the medium to extended time frames, China increases their economic leverage over Russia. As a result, miscalculations from both sides might result in China resorting to military force to seize related natural resources.

Unless Russia experiences hyperinflation, I won't read too much into the Ruble's value. Historically, the UK used funds from the Marshall Program to shore up their currency. In comparison, circumstances forced Western Europe and Japan to use that program to rebuild shattered industries. Japan and West Germany's "economic miracles" left the UK in the dust from former piles of Ruble.


China will pursue dual goals of obtaining lower-cost energy and maintaining Russia's economic lifeline. Moreover, the cost of the war in Ukraine will outstrip the modest revenue gained from exporting oil and gas to China. Nor will cutting off energy supplies to Western Countries reduce opposition to Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Lastly, the future of Putin's grip over Russia still relies on the outcome of the war in Ukraine. But unfortunately, threading the needle to ensure Ukraine is free from the invaders and averting another Russian Civil War might elude Western governments.

a reply to: TheRedneck

very chilling words, showing just how far the west has shifted from democracy..

like many others conspiracies we're seen turned real recently this has been dismissed as fearmongering they'd use the covid style rules to enforce green rules..

The game changes but the strategy remains the same for these guys. The similarities between Covid and the "Energy" crisis are interesting, almost as if they were both manufactured to push a certain agenda.

The push for electric vehicles, the ban on gas powered cars and equipment, the throttling and control of thermostats. With every new day it seems individual freedoms are slowly being taken and one day we will wake up and they will be gone.

a reply to: Charliebrowndog

while I know we are on that trajectory I also know human nature is not so easy to predict or control..
people will create their work arounds and they'll share them.

i see it as a chance for not just the real innovation we've been missing but also the real risk to them of crafting their own doom..

the only chance they had to get a NWO working was through positivity not through negativity and crisis they've adopted. happy people will embrace change they see that benefits them angry people will fight negative change forced on them and will spend their time drilling holes in the bottom of the ship of state..

its like these people have all the wealth and power but still lack any understanding of people..

a reply to: xpert11

The risk of the Russian economy failing, the fall of Putin's regime and a second Russian Civil War breaking out. At face value, Putin's downfall is a positive development. But who would replace Putin and the fate of Russia's nuclear weapons are unknown.

However, in the medium to extended time frames, China increases their economic leverage over Russia. As a result, miscalculations from both sides might result in China resorting to military force to seize related natural resources.

That is my concern. At present, we have Vladimir Putin to deal with... yes, he is a bad person, yes, he has little regard for non-Russian nations, but he has also proven over time that he is far from a madman despite what Western media wants to paint him as. He will fall from power. Who replaces him will be the real problem.

What worries me is if the USA/West manages to work in someone friendly to our interests; that is our Modus Operandi. I don't know if we could manage that with Russia, but rest assured someone will at least try. China sees us as a cultural threat; if it ever sees Russia the same way, China will take that as a serious military threat.

China already has economic leverage over Russia. We already handed that to them on a silver platter with the sanctions. The move to supplying China exclusively was and is a problem, but a minor one at best, and the end result will be that Russia's economy will boom. It just won't rival China's economy; they are poised to become the next global economic superpower and at this time I don't see any way of stopping that.

Unless Russia experiences hyperinflation, I won't read too much into the Ruble's value.

Russia is far from experiencing hyperinflation; the USA is doing so instead. Prices in the last year have doubled, tripled, in some cases quadrupled or more. That's a part of how the ruble is outpacing the dollar, but certainly not all of the story.

Russia has an abundance of the most valuable resource on the planet: energy, in the form of oil and natural gas. Nothing the West can do will change that. The only thing we could do is restrict Russia's ability to develop those resources, and everything we have done so far is the exact opposite. Look at what we have accomplished with the sanctions:

We made it nigh impossible for Russia to deal with Europe. Russia has two, and only two, land-based export possibilities for energy: Europe and China. Until the sanctions, Russia was dealing with both, and both were competing with each other for Russian energy. Now, with the sanctions, Russia is left with no choice but to deal with China. Whoever they deal with will require an investment from Russia to set up the needed infrastructure. Russia has limited economic resources right now, so who would imagine that they would resume dealing with a trade partner that just threw away their previous attempt to improve infrastructure (Nord Stream 2), is making it hard to keep another piece of infrastructure working (Nord Stream), and has lost access to their only other infrastructure (the Ukraine conflict, lost regardless of who caused it). On the other hand, their other potential customer is more than happy to buy every drop or milliliter of Russian energy and has plenty of money to do so.

Seriously, given those two possibilities, which customer would you choose?

The second thing we have done is to raise the global price of energy by restricting one source to much of the world. Supply and demand is a thing; drop supply and prices soar. At the same time, that just makes energy exports more profitable for Russia. I'm sure China will get a lower price due to the sanctions, but it will still be more than they would pay without the effects of the sanctions. So we have literally increased Russia's economy.

At the same time, who has been hurt by those sanctions? Europe, as they are about to run out of energy... the USA because higher fuel prices have aided hyperinflation...

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

Europe by that i mean the EU has been the canary in the worlds economic coalmine since the euro crisis, Putin and Xi know that the west is ready to fall like the soviet union did and both are positioning themselves to take advantage of that collapse.

Western hubris that has led us here along with the age old middle Europe thinking it can beat both the UK and Russia at the same time to become the dominant power.. but in doing so they've just shifted a resource crisis into currency collapse.

and the US Democrats throw fuel on it all by thinking they can defeat all their red enemies in one go, be it republicans, the red coats, red Russia and red china..

its hard not to see it all as self inflicted ..

a reply to: nickyw

And to top it off, the EU leaders are doing this with a total disregard for the needs of their own people. They completely don't care that most Europeans will be freezing, unemployed, and probably hungry this winter.

It's not hard to see that the collapse of the EU is going to occur soon -- a question of months, not years.

a reply to: AndyFromMichigan

very true, these outcomes where locked in at the point no one dealt with the structural issues that led to 2007/8 and the euro crisis.. not to say my country is any better as it has made the same lockstep mistakes, but in admitting that it's easy to see it now turning into a currency collapse..

I'm concerned that there is no one in Europe or the US can not see this outcome or I wonder if they really think the printing presses will save them..

its a mad world..

a reply to: nickyw

Putin and Xi know that the west is ready to fall like the soviet union did and both are positioning themselves to take advantage of that collapse.

Europe would have already fallen were it not for the US.

The USA made China its enemy by that same arrogance you speak of. China is fiercely protective of their culture, and they have watched the US Westernize Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and several other Asian countries. As a result, China does not want us anywhere near their borders.

There is no love lost between North Korea and China... were it not for us, China would have taken them over long, long ago. But, as it is, China is content to allow North Korea to serve as a buffer zone between them and us. That's also the real issue with Taiwan... China is not, I believe, intent on taking Taiwan over, but they would rather see it destroyed completely than see it continue to Westernize.

Russia is similar, but Russia is a poor country. They do not have the resources China has. Heck, how many years have they spent just trying to secure a pipeline between them and Iran so they would have seaport access? That's why they took over Georgia some years back, and that's also why they have a presence in Syria... Syria represents a Mediterranean seaport for Iranian/Russian oil. And where are we? Standing right between Russia/Iran and another seaport, acting like we are on some humanitarian mission.

Believe me, both Putin and Xi know we're full of horse-hockey. They're about to call our bluff.

A bully can get away with being a bully as long as they're the biggest guy on the block. When someone bigger comes along, they fall. China is planning on being that bigger someone, and they're almost there. When we sanctioned Russia, we just made sure they can make that goal.

We are our own worst enemy.

TheRedneck

Hi TheRedneck
there is certainly a lot to agree with in what you say and as you mention we are months and looking around Europe I'd even risk saying weeks away from the first dominoes falling.

in terms of china, Xi pointed out that the only recourse the west has to survive is to copy chinas authoritarianism which some seem to take to heart only I think Xi knows that kind of authoritarianism will break not make the West.

underlying that is the sheering forces in play, redistribution/less is more vs new wealth creation, the only way I can see the new UK PM growing the economy in this environment to cover whatever the short/long term energy plan costs are to lower taxes to the point of attracting the big money, we are already hearing hints the big boys are in favour of that plan.

a reply to: TheRedneck

China and Russia share joint opposition to democratic forms of government. But their interests diverge with China's numerous territorial disputes and global reach. In comparison, geography locks The Stans in Russia's orbit. Nor does Russia have the economic clout to compete with Germany and the EU trading blocking. But Putin is driven by a deranged desire to recreate the Russian Empire or the Soviet Union.

China and Russia are the bullies in the room. China's approach to Australia in the wake of the Covid-19 demonstrates that point. But what happens when either Russia or China turn on each other?

As a side note, hyperinflation occurred in the Weimar Republic and Zimbabwe. The present inflationary pressures facing the U.S. and other countries are a throwback to 1970s economic issues.

Concerning global energy prices, the madness of the Climate Change crowd is impacting the situation. For instance, Ardern's government banned new permits for natural gas exploration in New Zealand's waters. So New Zealand is left to import energy from overseas. Otherwise, New Zealand maintaining trade ties with China at all costs and opposition to Russia's war in Ukraine is the foreign policy version of Bipolar.

Beyond Russian energy, a rethink of international trade is required:

Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. importing consumer goods from China has boomeranged. China's exports funded their naval build-up and Belt and Road Initiative. There are no sound reasons why western countries' trade policies should support those measures and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Forgive me for not outlining the flaws with U.S. trade policy. I am avoiding going too far off-topic.

Moreover, U.S.-led sanctions failed to stop or prevent North Korea and Iran's nuclear weapons programs. So to what degree are sanctions and Putin's actions hindering Russia's economy/war effort? Perhaps the answer to the question is uncertain.

IMO western thinkers overestimated the impact of sanctions on the Russian people. Russia is a vast landmass populated by lower-income earners, and the country's wealth is with the oligarchy. The average Russian probably can't afford to travel overseas. Its possible geographical scope and paranoia toward foreign influences insulate Russians from the rest of the world. One might say that Russia's flirtation with Big Macs is over.

a reply to: xpert11

The "flirtation with Big Macs" was never anything but a pressure relief valve for their society:

"Look: you have the same things as they do in the West"

Cold War never ended in the minds of the people running Russia today. They just took a breather. As soon as they thought they had an advantage, it was time to beat up on the little brothers.

The West thought the Cold War had ended, but their biggest mistake was having no vision for what should follow. Thus, we have a bunch of powerful people who are miles out of their swim lanes. Waiting on activist billionaires to "fix" the world situation is a non-starter.

Cheers

originally posted by: xpert11
Concerning global energy prices, the madness of the Climate Change crowd is impacting the situation. For instance, Ardern's government banned new permits for natural gas exploration in New Zealand's waters. So New Zealand is left to import energy from overseas. Otherwise, New Zealand maintaining trade ties with China at all costs and opposition to Russia's war in Ukraine is the foreign policy version of Bipolar.

As a NZer, Im personally fine with no gas exploration thanks... none of the gas and oil we'd make here would be for domestic consumption anyway we'd still be importing the vast majority of it, given the companies that would do it would all be foreign owned and the majority of profits would go immediately off shore like it does in most sectors here owned primarily by outside companies, not to mention the environmental risks just aint worth it... small number of jobs, for little economic reward and huge possibility for an eco disaster?... pass.

Whats wrong with maintaining trade with China? they havent invaded some other country yet, ruSSia isnt China. Sure i hate the problems the Chinese have caused here and the way they are gearing up, but hey prices for goods are prices, the days of getting most of our imports from the UK, and the US are long gone... come back when China invades Taiwan and we'll see what happens (if Labors still in they will cut ties with China if China did something stupid like that. If National... you'd bet your rear they'd retain trading with them).

a reply to: BigfootNZ

Natural gas explorations offer New Zealand the opportunity to generate exports and achieve higher levels of energy independence. For example, New Zealand could follow Western Australia's model and withhold a percentage of the gas supplies for domestic consumption.

The issues with trade with China are varied from what I mentioned previously, including IP theft. Former New Zealand Prime Minster John Key's legacy to New Zealand -China relations focuses on exporting milk powder to that country. Key doesn't distinguish between China's authoritarian regime and democratic forms of government.

The Covid - 19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine are wake-up calls for New Zealand. New Zealand and Key's addiction to globalisation left a country reliant on international supply chains. Sensible trade policies would factor in the requirement to improve New Zealand's self-reliance/boost the manufacturing sector.

The post-Cold War assumption concerning Chinese democracy would follow from international trade liberalisation proved disastrously incorrect. The same applies to Russia's becoming a western-style democracy.

Also, consider the impact war in Asia would have on New Zealand's fuel supply. Yet current events aren't persuading Ardern's government to look at the absence of fuel security in New Zealand.

Belt up, New Zealand's geographical isolation and insular culture aren't protection from the rough waters ahead of us. But I digress from the topic.

a reply to: xpert11

So much to unpack here...

Yes, China and Russia are both "bullies" on the International stage, and historically have been anything but allies. Their one correlation with each other historically has been the rise of communism as the controlling economic system. Even then, that similarity did little to cement Russia/China relations. They simply do not like each other, and I believe that comes from a shared love of their indigenous cultures. Russians are quite fond of "Mother Russia" and the Chinese do not like Westernization at all. But their own cultures are also quite incompatible.

That was the EU's ace in the hole. Russians actually would identify more with Europe than with China, all else being equal. Russia preferred to sell their exports to Europe than to China. But that was before Europe screwed them over.

Think of it this way... imagine for a moment you own a big area of mature forest, ripe for logging. You're struggling to make ends meet, but then someone offers to buy all the timber you have, for a premium price, putting you in a great financial position for once! You'd jump at the opportunity! But there's one little catch... your property has no roads for the loggers to get in. So you take what little savings you have, plus a loan from your bank, and put in some roads. It's not as many roads as will be required, but you figure if they log those areas, you'll make enough to put in more roads, and eventually you'll make back everything you spent plus a small fortune.

Sounds like a good idea, right? So you sign with the logger and put in the first roads. The logger comes in and takes some wood out, but your money isn't exactly what you thought it was. So you approach the loggers and you have disagreement after disagreement after disagreement. But you're still making something, so you keep putting in new roads.

Now the loggers decide they don't want to keep logging. No reason; they just don't like you personally. It just so happens you just put in a whole bunch of better roads, too, at a huge expense to you. You need that money! But the loggers ignore your pleas and go around to make sure no one else logs your property either. Now you're stuck with all those new roads that are suddenly worthless.

But one logger decides, hey! We don't care about what that other guy says... we'll buy all your lumber! Now, you don't really like this guy, but you're broke and you need the money desperately. Are you going to tell him to go away, or are you going to start dealing with him?

If the original logger comes back and decides, "well, we want to deal with you after all, but you'll have to do this, that, and the other thing," are you going to do it? He's already screwed you once.

In that scenario, you are Russia; the original logger is Europe; the roads are the pipelines Europe closed down; the new logger is China.

Alliances are not born out of personality; they are born out of necessity and ambition. Russia's ambition is to rebuild their country and become prosperous; China's ambition is to become the next global economic superpower. They each have exactly what the other wants. Pragmaticism will win out over personality. Every. Single. Time.

As for how long that lasts, I agree; it will not. However, it does not have to last long. Once Russia is economically stable, they can afford to pursue other interests. Once China is the global economic superpower, China can pursue military interests. The alliance of convenience can shatter all to hell and back, but it will not change what has happened under it.

What will have happened is that we have a new bully on the block that has been taking steroids: China. They'll likely eventually overthrow Russia when they have the military might to do so. My point is that had Europe not screwed Russia over the pipelines, Russia would not have turned to China and China would not have the economic power to pursue their military goals as quickly.

Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. importing consumer goods from China has boomeranged. China's exports funded their naval build-up and Belt and Road Initiative. There are no sound reasons why western countries' trade policies should support those measures and Russia's war in Ukraine.

Of course they have boomeranged! We are now so dependent on Chinese goods, not for just consumerism but for our own military ambitions, that we could not continue without Chinese assistance.

The problem I have is that I watched the US and the EU encourage Russia to invade Ukraine! Sure, Russia actually gave the orders, but they were also backed into a corner. Economically, the shutdown of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was an affront to their desire to sell oil to Europe. Militarily, the talk about Ukraine joining NATO and placing NATO weapons on Russia's border was a direct threat to Russia's national security. Putin is well aware that he cannot win a military conflict with NATO; he has admitted that on multiple occasions.

Add to that that Ukraine is far from an innocent little lamb. That country has been in a civil war, sometimes warm, sometimes cold, for decades now. East of Kyiv the people identify with the Rus peoples, same as Russia. West of Kyiv, the people identify more with Europe. Russia will obviously support their own historical cultures, so Russia looks upon injustice towards East Ukraine like we might look at injustice toward the UK. They may not be citizens, but they are "our kind of people."

Finally, include the constant history of disagreement over the Ukraine pipelines, mostly emanating from Kyiv and west, which the Nord Stream pipelines were built to correct... and you have one of the most obvious attempts to instigate a military action I have ever witnessed. Yes, Russia invaded... yes, Russia was in the wrong by doing so... yes Russia should withdraw... but we're not angelic in this by a long, long shot either.

One might say that Russia's flirtation with Big Macs is over.

Funny you should mention that. After the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakup of the Soviet Union, the US decided we were going to "help" our Russian "friends." Well, turns out that "help" was the exact same kind of "help" the South received from the carpetbaggers after the War of Northern Aggression... in other words, complete and total ransacking of anything that was left. We didn't "help" anyone in Russia except our own interests, and we left that country worse off than we found it. Is it any wonder that Russia does not trust the West?

We in the West need to learn to step back and look at our own failings instead of simply assuming that we're right because we're the West. When it comes to our involvement with other countries, we're usually wrong. This time, we're damn sure wrong, and we will pay for that history sooner than later.

The die has been cast.

TheRedneck

a reply to: BigfootNZ

Whats wrong with maintaining trade with China?

Nothing. As long as you understand the day is coming when China will make that decision for you.

We call it "putting all of one's eggs in one basket."

TheRedneck

originally posted by: xpert11
Belt up, New Zealand's geographical isolation and insular culture aren't protection from the rough waters ahead of us. But I digress from the topic.

Aye i only responded off topic since i saw NZ pop up lol... and while i agree you do make good points and i hold similar ones to a degree, I just mostly got a little antsy due to talking about Ardern which as someone that votes Labor (although i go with party vote Green since they make a good coalition, or used to, partner with Labor and Labor arent 100% like they used to be unfortunately) i got a little defensive given there are some people in NZ with pull who do alot to bash her at every opportunity, usually extremely unfairly (and often in the American media fashion which is something thats pissed me off about my countries media and pundits the last 10 years)... aaaand theres me being a snowflake liberal lefty i guess lol. **shrug** Ill own that.

Although you did mention Key negatively so your clearly neutral, so yeah im glad he's long gone from the halls of Parliament... anyway.

NZ is a long way off, and while we are isolated we're still extremely self sufficient (when needed) that any disruption (and we've had disruptions in the past) wouldnt be to much of an issue (although it would hurt)... and as alot of us tend to think down here, that isolations a good thing, even with any problems that might be created if those in the northern hemisphere decide to go full retard...

Please you guys up there, regardless of whos side your on in this... dont go full retard.

Oh and im not sure where your from, so sorry if me responding as if your not from NZ offends in anyway since you might well be from NZ (you appear to follow our political situation), in which case hello fellow country man.

And yeah back to the topic...

originally posted by: F2d5thCavv2
a reply to: xpert11

The "flirtation with Big Macs" was never anything but a pressure relief valve for their society:

"Look: you have the same things as they do in the West"

Cold War never ended in the minds of the people running Russia today. They just took a breather. As soon as they thought they had an advantage, it was time to beat up on the little brothers.

The West thought the Cold War had ended, but their biggest mistake was having no vision for what should follow. Thus, we have a bunch of powerful people who are miles out of their swim lanes. Waiting on activist billionaires to "fix" the world situation is a non-starter.

Cheers

On the other hand, it's clear to me that the Cold War never ended in the minds of the people in charge of the United States today. We even have the old Cold War boogeyman of nuclear war being dragged out of retirement, like they just pulled an old government pamphlet from the 1950's off the shelf, blew the dust off of it, and started using it again.