What does Putin really want? My theory about the war in Ukraine

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: 35Foxtrot
a reply to: face23785

You forget a very plausible, and in my mind likely, possibility - Bad Intel.

He was fed a bunch of horsesh*t from his intel people (purposefully or mistakenly is another discussion).

As a vet of the Air Force, you should be familiar with this - not just Russian - problem.

No matter what his intel was telling him, he was well aware that they haven't yet been able to pacify the regions they were already in for the past 8 years. There's no way they could've got him to believe they were taking the rest of the country in 2 or 3 days or even weeks, imo.

Also, I was a fuels guy lol not sure what insight you think that gives me into the intelligence world.

I still find this guy's information still plausible, there is no doubt the 2 FSB guys were indeed arrested, which implies it wasn't incompetence it was a concentrated effort/plan to deceive Putin.

www.thelowdownblog.com...

Mar 21, 2022
Is Putin's Invasion Failing Because Russian Intelligence Embezzled Billions Intended As Bribes For Ukrainians?

It's even wilder than the headline suggests. The FSB embezzled every dime of the billions in bribe money intended for Ukraine, which they figured was a low-risk crime because no one - not even Putin - would be crazy enough to invade Ukraine, the largest country in Europe, and the bribe money was in cash so there was no accounting. Meaning no one would miss the dough.

a reply to: face23785

You make some good points but you are lacking some accurate info as well that has skewed some of your conclusions.

The people of Mariupol, the civilians have been welcoming them as liberators.

The RA and conscripts of Mariupol were sent off to other parts of the country while replacements were brought in. From reports of POWs and civilians, those forces fell under the control of Azov that had based themselves in Mariupol.


The forces there under Azov fought a gorilla war/scorched earth war with RF. When they would withdraw from a building the Molotovs would be used to burn the buildings as they fell back. There is evidence of this left in and around the buildings.
They used the civilians as shields. Multiple reports of the different methods. Other civilian reports say the local police force was used as fodder or gunned down if they refused.

Mariupol voted to join the DPR back in 2015. Of course, nothing came of that but Azov and other nationalists do not see the people of Mariupol as their people or possibly even people.
Here is a segment of an interview with an Azov commander from before the invasion for further insight. Remove the space between (h ttps) h ttps://files.catbox.moe/b94z1n.mp4

I'd also like to address one thing I meant to say in the OP part 2 but forgot to mention:

How did I figure this out and our analysts and intelligence didn't? Well, I don't think that's what happened. I think we know he only wants part of the country.

Read up on the end of WW2, the Cuban missile crisis, any number of other conflicts/incidents. A lot goes on behind the scenes that the public only learns about years later.

Putin may have been intending to do this for months and Western leaders were trying to talk him out of it, threatening this and that, but he finally made his decision and this is how the West decided to spin it. If he's going to do it no matter what, this way makes the West look good for having helped Ukraine fight off this supposed invasion of the entire country, plus put on these "tough" sanctions that carefully avoided hurting Russia's energy sector, the one thing that might actually threaten Putin.

We'll learn about it 40 years from now.

I agree wi 35Foxtrot. I think he got bad intel and now is stuck.

not sure how 'Russian' those Donbas areas are. majority? or large minority?

maybe he gambled that the fuel and food his country provides made it bulletproof in the international community. (it's helped; I believe Germany is still buying oil from him)

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: Grenade

As for there being no neo-nazis in Ukraine, the Azov Battalion put rest to that BS.

He that as it may, that battalion formed after the annexation of Crimea and conflict in the east.

All countries have a nationalist element, and a country that's being occupied/invaded is going to be more susceptible to that.

But the narrative of Russias presence in Ukraine being mainly to rid them of Nazis doesn't hold water seeing as they were there before that.

The batallion adopted into the Ukranian NG, yes.

However, the leadership and sway, especially political has been there a long time. Back to Bamderas and Svoboda.

I agree, the nazi eradication sentiment doesnt hold much water where the past 8 years is concerned. That is in theater.

Yet our political critters knew and have zero issue arming and aiding them during that same timeframe.

Nor have we ceased arming terrorist to suit our ends in the past. Which inevitably creates another new generation of anti-west sentiment with radicalized and eventual terrorists groups.

Same tactics, same backers, surely same results.

It would be insane to think otherwise.

a reply to: JinMI

a reply to: Grimpachi

Mariupol voted to join the DPR back in 2015. Of course, nothing came of that but Azov and other nationalists do not see the people of Mariupol as their people or possibly even people.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

That statement shouldnt be just read in passing.

The bad intel theory seems more legit when you understand certain other things, such as people being afraid to tell Putin the truth. Also, there are reports, don't have time to dredge them up right now, that Putin had assigned money for years for the FSB to bribe officials in the Ukraine so when they invaded they would just fold. It seems this money was being siphoned off for personal use by the FSB officers. You know corruption breeds corruption. Putin is as corrupt as they come. The Russian Orthodox Church is built on corruption. It's head, Patriarch Kirill was a KGB official. In fact the entire Russian Orthodox Church used to be a KGB hotbed. The Soviets used the Church to inculcate the masses to bow to communism and of course their dictator. Things haven't much changed in that corrupt religion. Judges are corrupt, police officers are corrupt, security guards are corrupt, army official are corrupt. The entire Russian hierarchy is built on corruption. There is no doubt it exists everywhere on earth, but it seems to be excessively greater in that nation.

originally posted by: 35Foxtrot
a reply to: face23785

Maybe that's why he attacked all of Ukraine. Maybe his crap intel officers were telling him that those damn Yukes have been waging a non-stop asymmetrical insurgency in Crimea for the past 8 years, stopping our forces from freeing those poor Crimeans. We need to put an end to their support of the insurgency. Then Crimea (and maybe other parts of Ukraine) will finally be securely in our hands, comrade.

That's the problem with hypotheticals. We could probably go on like this forever, coming up with "maybes" for each other's "maybes."

And the bad intel/Air Force jab was just a blue on blue kind of jest. Like Marines eating crayons and the Air Force's luxury accommodations...

I got your jest, I was jesting back

For sure there's no way to be certain anything I said is the real deal. I respect your views.

a reply to: face23785

Read up on the end of WW2, the Cuban missile crisis, any number of other conflicts/incidents. A lot goes on behind the scenes that the public only learns about years later.

Since 1997 scholars have had access to recordings that Kennedy secretly made of meetings with his top advisers, the Executive Committee of the National Security Council that presents a much different picture of the Cuban Missile Crisis than what has been spun and fed to us. It takes a lot of years to get the truth, probably because it's so ugly compared to the official narrative.

www.theatlantic.com...

originally posted by: randomuser
The bad intel theory seems more legit when you understand certain other things, such as people being afraid to tell Putin the truth.

I considered that. But I think it's worse to tell him he's gonna have an overwhelming victory in a few days and have it turn into a quagmire like this.

I think that's gonna piss him off exponentially more than you telling him the truth up front.

originally posted by: nugget1
a reply to: face23785

Read up on the end of WW2, the Cuban missile crisis, any number of other conflicts/incidents. A lot goes on behind the scenes that the public only learns about years later.

Since 1997 scholars have had access to recordings that Kennedy secretly made of meetings with his top advisers, the Executive Committee of the National Security Council that presents a much different picture of the Cuban Missile Crisis than what has been spun and fed to us. It takes a lot of years to get the truth, probably because it's so ugly compared to the official narrative.

www.theatlantic.com...

That was pretty much what I was getting at. These leaders communicate a lot more than what makes it into the news. Who knows what deals were struck.

I can see him taking all of the donbas region, and all the southern part of Ukraine all the way to Odessa. That would give him easy access to Crimea, and the deep water port at Odessa.

a reply to: JinMI

We have no problem arming Saudi Arabia either, who is decimating Yemen right now and is one of the worst human rights violators at home.

Our foreign policy rarely has anything to do with freedom or even principle for that matter.

Same applies for Russia as well. They could say they're after Nazis or corruption... But if you look at their sphere of influence and the nations they support, it is just as hypocritical as the US.

At the end of the day, people in power have different interests than their public platform. I believe Hillary had a good quote on that, a private stance and a public narrative (paraphrased).

Putin is 100% correct about the nazis in Ukraine. In fact, it was on the world's radar back in 2014.
The West - IE, the corrupt elite are just choosing to gaslight the world now about it.

originally posted by: The2Billies
I happen to know quite a number people high up in the US military/government. Not Biden or his crew, puke.

Anyway they all say there is only one way out for Russia. Putin needs to be "ousted" by his own people and only by Putin being 6 feet under will this all end. It must be openly done by Russians and no one else.

That will end the conflict.

Funny, so do I. And they know that the people of Russia do not want to oust Putin.


Russia has a right to defend herself - and Ukraine and NATO was posing a threat.

a reply to: shaemac

Russia has a right to defend herself - and Ukraine and NATO was posing a threat.

Ukraine had no pathway into NATO. That was never a serious discussion. The conflict broke out because of their possible entrance into the EU, which ended up getting rescinded.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Sure, but imagine the outrage had an EU country incorporated a militia into it's official national guard that used the Wolfsangel as it's insignia.

Seems all is forgotten and news is all about the narrative, rather than the truth.

You can be an ultra right wing armed militia, promote Nazi ideology and commit war crimes, just make sure you have been vaccinated and hate Russia, then all is forgiven.

a reply to: Grenade

Sure, but imagine the outrage had an EU country incorporated a militia into it's official national guard that used the Wolfsangel as it's insignia.

The Golden Dawn in Greece. They even had some traction in politics there.

That was around the time of their economic crisis. And if I remember correctly, part of the disdain was that they abolished their own currency (going so far as to destroy their minting equipment), and adopted the Euro.

I also think the claims of nazism or extreme nationalism usually get exaggerated to justify agendas... And while I'm aware of certain factions in Ukraine, was it enough to justify a full invasion and the destruction of several modern cities? I think that's a fair question, and causing more destruction than those you were "protecting" people from is no good deed.
The line between neo nazism and nationalism is a hard one given the age of Goodwins Law... But extreme nationalism is existent in almost every country, and gains traction whenever sovereignty is at risk.

Ukraine isn't necessarily unique given their circumstances. I'm not justifying true nazism, merely pointing out extreme nationalism (sometimes flirting with or turning into nazism) is more prevalent when you're being invaded or occupied.

a reply to: Grenade

...pretty sure going after fringe groups can wait. Their whole country was just invaded FFS!

All hands on deck until this foreign invasion is sorted out! (yes, this includes idiot right wing nazi groups)