What does Putin really want? My theory about the war in Ukraine

I've been studying international politics on my own pretty much my entire adult life. After I got out of the Air Force, I decided to go back to school, and formalized my study by pursuing a B.S. in International Politics.

Now, I am not relaying that info to declare myself some sort of "expert" and assert that this makes my analysis correct. I have no expert credentials and haven't even finished my degree yet. The reason I brought that up was just to back up what I am going to say to begin here:

I am no admirer of Putin, and I am not here to debate his worth as a human, nor even the merits of the invasion, which I believe is wrong and should end. However, since I've been interested in international politics, one thing has been clear in any discussion of Russia. Putin is not known as a fool. By those who tolerate him, admire him, or hate him, he is almost universally known as being very intelligent, scheming, calculating, and shrewd.

But this is not the Putin we have been presented by the Biden administration and the U.S. media since Russia invaded Ukraine this year. Both left and right wing media, along with the administration, have talked about Putin like some bumbling idiot who thought the Ukrainians would welcome the Russians as liberators, that Russian forces would take Kiev in a few days, and that Putin would now rule Ukraine.

However, there are some serious flaws and contradictions in this narrative.

1. There is a serious disconnect in the media narrative about Russian propaganda about neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine. As many of you know, Russian propaganda is often meant for domestic consumption. They are mostly concerned with building a picture for the Russian people, not necessarily concerned with what the international community thinks.

So Putin cooked up or at least exaggerated the presence of neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine. Say we take that as fact, that it is all a Russian construct. That means that Putin knows these groups either don't exist or don't have much presence in Ukraine. So why would he think the Ukrainians would welcome his troops with open arms as liberators from a supposed neo-Nazi threat that doesn't exist, and that both Putin and the Ukrainian people know don't exist because it is only Russian propaganda? That makes no sense.

2. As you know, in some respects Russia did not invade Ukraine in 2022, because there's been an ongoing invasion since 2014. This is an escalation of an existing action, not a new action. Russia has had, depending on who you believe, mercenary groups, paramilitary forces, and even some of their actual military, in southeast Ukraine for years. Why is this significant to the present situation?

Well, those are the areas of Ukraine with more Russian speakers and ethnic Russians. And Russia hasn't been able to pacify them for 8 years. The Ukrainians are still resisting, still fighting over these areas that should, in theory, be the most welcoming to Russian forces and Russian rule.

So what about that would make Putin think he would be able to take the rest of the country, that is not majority ethnic Russian or Russian speaking, including the capital, in just a few days? It's just ludicrous to think he expected that. You could argue that he attacked with a much larger force, so maybe that's why he thought it would be fast, but I'll get to that a bit later...

3. Russia isn't China. Maybe if this were China invading someone we could say oh they just don't know how to fight wars, that's why they're performing this bad. But Russia has been in recent wars in places like Georgia, Syria, etc. I find it hard to believe that with their experiences there they thought they'd be able to just roll over a country like Ukraine.

4. Finally, this simply isn't the Putin we've all been told about for the past 2 decades. With the other factors I've mentioned above in mind, the former spy, master manipulator, goes for a direct, brute force, poorly thought out and planned strategy? It's completely counterintuitive to what you'd expect from him, if Western academia, media, and analysts had their profile of him correct.

So, what is really going on? Has he lost it?

I doubt it. Here's why. Say he really has gone off the deep end and he's just a raving madman now. Some media types and their "experts" talked about that in the opening days of the invasion. But as this has gone on, there's been less and less talk of it, and as time goes by I think it's less and less likely.

One simple reason: If he is no longer a rational actor, and if he really did think he'd have won this weeks ago, and it has become an unmitigated disaster and his grip on power is at risk because of it... why hasn't he escalated?

Why no tactical nuclear weapons. The West hasn't even had the courage to go full throttle on economic sanctions, do you really think we'd start a nuclear war because Russia popped a few tactical nukes in a country with which we don't have defensive treaty obligations? There's no way. So tactical nuclear weapons are definitely an options, but he hasn't used them to salvage this supposed disaster. Why has Putin actually de-escalated his nuclear rhetoric recently, by saying that they would only use nuclear weapons in response to an existential threat, which is pretty much every nuclear power's posture?

Why not even widespread use of chemical weapons? Sure, there's been a few isolated and disputed reports that maybe they were used, but again if this were becoming a serious disaster for Putin and he may even be toppled from power if he does not accomplish his goals, I think he'd have gone all in at least on chemical weapons. All that would happen in response are more economic sanctions, and he doesn't seem to care about those.

The alternative explanation is that he has some other goal. This seems much more in line with what we know about his character, unless we've been lied to all these years about who Putin is. So what is it?

Obviously, I have no way of knowing for sure. But I think he just wants to expand his control over the southest/east portions of Ukraine. Think about it, what are Putin's strategic goals? If you think he wants to secure a buffer between Russia and NATO, taking over all of Ukraine would have had the opposite effect. Then Russian territory in Ukraine butts right up against Poland, a NATO country. It is actually better for Russia to only control the eastern/southeast portion of Ukraine. Trying to control the entire country would be a nightmare. Ukraine is bigger than Iraq, and look what trouble the U.S. had controlling Iraq for all those years. The southeast and east also contains some economically and strategically important areas.

Cont. below...

So why attack other parts of the country? Simple, to trick the West and Ukraine into thinking that was what he wanted. It's like a negotiation. You open like you want way more than you know they're willing to give, with your real goal being less. The entire country of Ukraine was seemingly in peril. The capital was "being surrounded." Remember that giant "convoy" that was going to encircle Kiev? Turned out there weren't really many attack forces in it, it was mostly logistics. Remember all the stories of conscripts despairing and giving up, or puncturing their gas tanks, or refusing orders? Putin didn't send his best forces to Kiev. He sent cannon fodder, troops he didn't care about. Why wasn't Kiev leveled to the ground like Mariopol has been?

Because that was never the goal. The goal is what they are moving after now. And after they take it and resume negotiations, maybe the Ukrainians feel they're lucky they didn't lose the entire country. Maybe the West urges Zelensky to cut his losses and give up on what little Putin took. You've won a great victory by fighting off the supposed Russian attempt to dominate your entire country. You had some successful counter-offensives. Russia will think twice about attacking you again. By that point, there's already been so much death and destruction, and Russia is dug in, and it will be a long, bloody affair to try to drive them out. Make peace.

And Putin gets what he was actually after all along.

a reply to: face23785

Very good points; especially 'So why attack other parts of the country? Simple, to trick the West and Ukraine into thinking that was what he wanted. It's like a negotiation. You open like you want way more than you know they're willing to give, with your real goal being less. '


You may have something

a reply to: face23785

I have a feeling Putin is just another arm of the Octopus, this war aligns perfectly with the Globalist agenda.

As for there being no neo-nazis in Ukraine, the Azov Battalion put rest to that BS.

Our left leaning media seem to leave out the fact that's who's currently holed up in the Mariupol Steel Factory.

a reply to: face23785

You forget a very plausible, and in my mind likely, possibility - Bad Intel.

He was fed a bunch of horsesh*t from his intel people (purposefully or mistakenly is another discussion).

As a vet of the Air Force, you should be familiar with this - not just Russian - problem.

I happen to know quite a number people high up in the US military/government. Not Biden or his crew, puke.

Anyway they all say there is only one way out for Russia. Putin needs to be "ousted" by his own people and only by Putin being 6 feet under will this all end. It must be openly done by Russians and no one else.

That will end the conflict.

originally posted by: 35Foxtrot
a reply to: face23785

You forget a very plausible, and in my mind likely, possibility - Bad Intel.

He was fed a bunch of horsesh*t from his intel people (purposefully or mistakenly is another discussion).

As a vet of the Air Force, you should be familiar with this - not just Russian - problem.

No matter what his intel was telling him, he was well aware that they haven't yet been able to pacify the regions they were already in for the past 8 years. There's no way they could've got him to believe they were taking the rest of the country in 2 or 3 days or even weeks, imo.

Also, I was a fuels guy lol not sure what insight you think that gives me into the intelligence world.

originally posted by: Grenade
a reply to: face23785

I have a feeling Putin is just another arm of the Octopus, this war aligns perfectly with the Globalist agenda.

As for there being no neo-nazis in Ukraine, the Azov Battalion put rest to that BS.

Our left leaning media seem to leave out the fact that's who's currently holed up in the Mariupol Steel Factory.

I'm thinking this too. They are getting cozy with India. So now we have Russia and India, China and NK, and they are all acquaintances and what do they have in common? They all dislike the US! Maybe not India... yet.

a reply to: face23785

The problem with that is: the narrative was laid out and basically almost accepted, Russia would send in 'peacekeepers' to the Eastern parts they wanted and no one would have lifted a finger.
I actually believe Russia knowing that thought they could stretch that leeway a little further and simply overplayed their hand.
They could have gotten the Eastern provinces easy, the problem was they wanted more.

a reply to: face23785

Maybe that's why he attacked all of Ukraine. Maybe his crap intel officers were telling him that those damn Yukes have been waging a non-stop asymmetrical insurgency in Crimea for the past 8 years, stopping our forces from freeing those poor Crimeans. We need to put an end to their support of the insurgency. Then Crimea (and maybe other parts of Ukraine) will finally be securely in our hands, comrade.

That's the problem with hypotheticals. We could probably go on like this forever, coming up with "maybes" for each other's "maybes."

And the bad intel/Air Force jab was just a blue on blue kind of jest. Like Marines eating crayons and the Air Force's luxury accommodations...

in putin's address to the world on reasoning behind the special military operation
many of the aspects you outline were stated very clearly by putin

i listened and digested what he was conveying and it for the most part is what you're saying

now the west though
i'd love to read your take on this CIA fueld nato drive here with regards to their current as well as possible end game
surely there's more then just ukraine interests being played out in ukraine

White rabbit

a reply to: The2Billies

a reply to: face23785

One of the best analyses of this war so far!
Thanks for posting.

I’ve been saying for a while now that there’s a time and place for underestimating the enemy in a war. That time is after the war is over.

If we believed the Biden and Media rhetoric at this point the Russians should be running back to Russia barefoot and starving with an empty fuel can in one hand and a ammo-less rifle in the other. Hasn’t happened!

a reply to: face23785

First of all I'd like to say what an excellent, well written and presented OP.
Normally my attention span wilts after a reading just a handful of sentences, but not in this instance.

You make some valid points and your conclusion is certainly not beyond the realms of believability.

But to be honest I lean towards his desire to reclaim 'former glories' etc and that the safety of ethnic Russians in Donbas is merely an excuse....and now a convenient get out.
I think he suffered from bad information and as tends to happen around dictators his 'advisors' etc were initially afraid to tell him some harsh truths.

I think his goals may have shifted and are now more realistic.

a reply to: lasvegasteddy

What are you talking about? NATO said no to Ukraine in 2014(?) and the people got a free re-vote in 2004 after the first run was without question heavily influenced and not by the CIA.

a reply to: Grenade

As for there being no neo-nazis in Ukraine, the Azov Battalion put rest to that BS.

Be that as it may, that battalion formed after the annexation of Crimea and conflict in the east.

All countries have a nationalist element, and a country that's being occupied/invaded is going to be more susceptible to that.

But the narrative of Russias presence in Ukraine being mainly to rid them of Nazis doesn't hold water seeing as they were there before that.

As others have said a very well written OP.

However I also don't think very realistic.

In this scenario all Putin gains is a small amount of extra territory that probably be the site of civil conflict for years to come.

It will have cost him massive ecomomc damage, loss of international prestige and his military and intelligence services have been made to look incompetent.

It's hard to see this as anything other than a disaster for Russia.

a reply to: face23785

When we look back in history at powerful old men, what do they want?

They want to go out with a bang!

a reply to: face23785

The whole Kiev fiasco proves your theory totally

If Russia really wanted to take out the capital it would have done a Grozny / Aleppo and level it completely. Job done.

An ex advisor to Putin was on the BBC a few months ago before the invasion took place. He said there was no way whatsoever Russia would want to try and control the west of Ukraine, it would be madness and lead to an insurgency that would be impossible to end. He said all Russia wanted was Donbas yet also some other southern parts, not sure if it was all the coast he did mention Odessa as on the list though

originally posted by: Freeborn
a reply to: face23785

First of all I'd like to say what an excellent, well written and presented OP.
Normally my attention span wilts after a reading just a handful of sentences, but not in this instance.

You make some valid points and your conclusion is certainly not beyond the realms of believability.

But to be honest I lean towards his desire to reclaim 'former glories' etc and that the safety of ethnic Russians in Donbas is merely an excuse....and now a convenient get out.
I think he suffered from bad information and as tends to happen around dictators his 'advisors' etc were initially afraid to tell him some harsh truths.

I think his goals may have shifted and are now more realistic.

I appreciate the compliment. I do think his desire to recapture former glories of the Russian empire is a motivation. I think that's why he is after what he's after. I just don't think he needs to capture all of Ukraine to get it, and probably knew taking the whole country wasn't realistic.