Is America at the brink of collapsing

originally posted by: musicismagic
Just curious from someone overseas. It does seem like this will lead to a Military command to briefly interfere with the political landscape? Any takes on this with a call of the National Guard yet in D.C. ?

It's not going to fall apart. There are 300 million people in the U.S. What you see and hear on the news doesn't even make up 2 million people. And I haven't heard anything about D.C. being or becoming a big problem. Some people just don't like that Infrastructure Bill.

They already had the National Guard out after the Rittenhouse shootings.

When you see someone get shot by a Civilian on the news, it's sad, but you have to look at the numbers. There are more than 9 million registered gun owners in the U.S. When there's a shooting, the Government isn't going to take guns away from 9 million people who didn't do it.

I live by Chicago. It's very sad when a little kid gets shot in a driveby - and I hope they catch the f*ckers that did it. And there's a shooting just about every day on the news here. But Chicago has 8 million people in it. One shooting a day is 365 a year.

Sad, but the numbers make it almost meaningless.

And the news sensationalizes everything. Which exaggerates the view of the problem.

a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

Weird, you didn't answer my questions. Like you didn't even try. Kind of funny but not unexpected.

Yes I understand how dxy is measured but unlike you I understand that a stronger dollar *should* buy more goods. Only in this case it is not doing so. It is buying fewer as I explained in my prior post.

'Dear joe schmo, while your dollars may not be exchanged for goods at even near the same rate as last year, you may purchase other currencies in larger quantities than you could before. Your family ought to survive by building houses out of those currencies, burning them for warmth, and eating them for nutrients.

Sincerely,
GQI'

That's your argument and you're mad when people see it for the bull# that it is.

Eventually you'll have to come to understand that what you've written about the dollar outpacing inflation is an impossibility. It'll either be before or after you're bankrupt, but either way I'm confident you'll figure it out.

originally posted by: MDDoxs

originally posted by: musicismagic
Just curious from someone overseas. It does seem like this will lead to a Military command to briefly interfere with the political landscape?

Any takes on this with a call of the National Guard yet in D.C. ?

No America is not on the brink of collapse. A military coup will not occur. This may feel like a banana republic, but it is not.

I would have to disagree. When we have a political group that literally pays for people to burn cities down and condone those same people who lock federal employees in buildings and catch them on fire, only to look at a single event on January 6th and proclaim that singe event was the worst event since the civil war and place people in prison for years for minor damage.... Yes, we are in a freaking banana republic!

originally posted by: TzarChasm

So replace our government leadership with unelected unqualified vigilantes until they decide it's safe to leave the white house and let the leaders they approve perform their lawful duties.

why does that sound so familiar?

a reply to: musicismagic

America is in the process of collapsing. The Republic has been dead pretty much since 911, and the collapse process takes years.

Here's the BLS with a nice interactive chart for essential items. Some things up, some down, some stagnant.

www.bls.gov...

While these charts kind of bounce in a relative range over the past 20 years, wealth in this country has EXPLODED over the past 20.

The overall wealth in the country has increased by $92T in the past 20 years. All classes have seen wealth increases, while staples just kind of bounce around.

Dollar strong, wealth infinitely greater, staples not really moving.

If someone can't make it in this environment, they wouldn't make it anywhere. It's never been easier.

a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

Well nobody buys cars or houses daily so that’s silly.

Yeah, they do. Cars and houses are bought each day. It's laughable how completely out of your depth you are.

Cars and house payments make up nearly 50% of most American's budgets. So while the individual might not buy one daily (what does anyone buy, daily?) you do pay for it monthly. Furthermore, do they buy gas and groceries often?

But remember you told everyone that if they stuffed money under their mattress they'd have beaten inflation. I mean I really laughed out loud when I read that. So whether or not they buy something daily isn't even pertinent to the point I was making about your lack of economic understanding. If they stuffed dollars under a mattress they would have lost their shirt to inflation.

The mental gymnastics you're trying to employ are olympic level but your skill is only around a 4th grade level. It's cute but at the end of the day it's a blooper reel.

Thankfully, it’s inflating faster than the cost of consumer goods, so I’m in a better position than I was January 1st dollar for dollar.

So since january 1st, your earnings, year over year, have increased by more than inflation? Good for you. Unfortunately most americans aren't in your situation..

Thank god we have actual indexes that measure this and not you’re moronic opinion that has detached from reality.

How adorable, a guy that doesn't understand that DXY outpacing inflation means absolutely zero to Americans, calling my pointing out of that reality, detached from reality.

Again:

DXY - 6.44% YTD
Inflation - 6.22% YTD

Let me put this bluntly: these two things have nothing to do with one another. No matter how much you want them to be intertwined, they're not intrinsically. When things are healthy they will correlate, when things are unhealthy that correlation will be less reliable.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

Well nobody buys cars or houses daily so that’s silly.

Yeah, they do. Cars and houses are bought each day. It's laughable how completely out of your depth you are.

Cars and house payments make up nearly 50% of most American's budgets. So while the individual might not buy one daily (what does anyone buy, daily?) you do pay for it monthly. Furthermore, do they buy gas and groceries often?

But remember you told everyone that if they stuffed money under their mattress they'd have beaten inflation. I mean I really laughed out loud when I read that. So whether or not they buy something daily isn't even pertinent to the point I was making about your lack of economic understanding. If they stuffed dollars under a mattress they would have lost their shirt to inflation.

The mental gymnastics you're trying to employ are olympic level but your skill is only around a 4th grade level. It's cute but at the end of the day it's a blooper reel.

Thankfully, it’s inflating faster than the cost of consumer goods, so I’m in a better position than I was January 1st dollar for dollar.

So since january 1st, your earnings, year over year, have increased by more than inflation? Good for you. Unfortunately most americans aren't in your situation..

Thank god we have actual indexes that measure this and not you’re moronic opinion that has detached from reality.

How adorable, a guy that doesn't understand that DXY outpacing inflation means absolutely zero to Americans, calling my pointing out of that reality, detached from reality.

Again:

DXY - 6.44% YTD
Inflation - 6.22% YTD

Let me put this bluntly: these two things have nothing to do with one another. No matter how much you want them to be intertwined, they're not.

Your opinion would get you laughed out of the meetings I'm about to go into.

It doesn't matter.

Since we import most of our goods, DXY is of great importance as a measure of purchasing power. Some argue on micro scales, some think macro.

Big vs small. It is what it is.

Those that argue on the smallest of scales will continue to have a small mindset and continuously complain as they get washed out and fall behind. No matter what economic situation those types of people are put into they won't succeed so why even bother arguing on behalf of people who don't move the needle?

We can even take away the massive amount of wealth that was generated in the past 20 years. Gas dollar for dollar was higher less than 10 years ago, when the average person commuted more in cars that had worse gas mileage.

Things aren't the same. Welcome to 2021. Sorry if you were left behind.

Slide in my DMs and I'll ask some of my coworkers if we can let you in a Zoom meeting to espouse some of your internet ramblings. We could use a good laugh.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

I bought a truck last year for $26,000. The same truck today is pushing $40,000, so is my dollar stronger today than it was last year or not? I bought a house last year for $450k that is now pushing $800k. Is my dollar stronger today than it was last year or not? The same groceries I bought last year for $350 per trip is now nearly $500 a trip, is my dollar stronger today than it was last year or not? Last year I could fill my truck up for $42.00 this year I can fill it for $75.00. Last year my heating bill was $2,100 for the season, this year my eating bill will be ~$3,500. So again, is my dollar stronger today than it was last year?

Truck: +$14,000
House: +$350,000

Net increase on these 2 assets +$364,000

Groceries - Increase $150
Truck gas - Increase $23
Heating for the year - +$1400

So you could buy groceries everyday and you'd spend an extra $54,750 for the year. Fill up your tank everyday and pay an extra $8,395. Your heating is up $1400 for the year.

So if you paid these "bills" daily, and you don't (nobody does), you'd be out an extra $64.5K.

When measured against your asset appreciation you're still net positive $300,000...

IMAGINE THAT???? You're in a better position than you were last year financially using your own numbers...

If you're not smart enough to take advantage I'm sorry.

Since prices are based on demand for the goods/services, Supply/Demand, the fact that prices are increasing and people are paying them that tells you all you need to know. Again, sorry if you were left behind.

a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

Your opinion would get you laughed out of the meetings I'm about to go into.

And at the end of next year one of us will be broke and the other won't.

Big vs small. It is what it is.

Correct, the big is made up of the small. One of us understands that, the other doesn't.

Since we import most of our goods, DXY is of great importance as a measure of purchasing power. Some argue on micro scales, some think macro.

So you think you can exchange your dollars for more now than you could a year ago if you buy from other countries? That's interesting because basically all of my imports have increased in price as well.

Those that argue on the smallest of scales will continue to have a small mindset and continuously complain as they get washed out and fall behind. No matter what economic situation those types of people are put into they won't succeed so why even bother arguing on behalf of people who don't move the needle?

You really do think you're quite important. It's going to be sad to watch you guys starve to death with your piles of dollars that are worth nothing.

Gas dollar for dollar was higher less than 10 years ago, when the average person commuted more in cars that had worse gas mileage.

Yes, it's what caused the economy to cave in on itself in 2008 and almost again in 2014.

originally posted by: Dfairlite
a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

Your opinion would get you laughed out of the meetings I'm about to go into.

And at the end of next year one of us will be broke and the other won't.

Big vs small. It is what it is.

Correct, the big is made up of the small. One of us understands that, the other doesn't.

Since we import most of our goods, DXY is of great importance as a measure of purchasing power. Some argue on micro scales, some think macro.

So you think you can exchange your dollars for more now than you could a year ago if you buy from other countries? That's interesting because basically all of my imports have increased in price as well.

Those that argue on the smallest of scales will continue to have a small mindset and continuously complain as they get washed out and fall behind. No matter what economic situation those types of people are put into they won't succeed so why even bother arguing on behalf of people who don't move the needle?

You really do think you're quite important. It's going to be sad to watch you guys starve to death with your piles of dollars that are worth nothing.

Gas dollar for dollar was higher less than 10 years ago, when the average person commuted more in cars that had worse gas mileage.

Yes, it's what caused the economy to cave in on itself in 2008 and almost again in 2014.

The economy, or markets, aren’t the same as 2008/2014 or any other time frame you want to point to.

The market (see SPY) isn’t even remotely similar to previous iterations we’ve had, so trying to overlay things toward eras that don’t exist (Great Depression, Tech Bubble, 2008 Crash) is a fools errand.

Our current market (see SPY) has products that weren’t even around as recent as a decade ago:

-OpEx days 3 times a week
-3X Bearish ETFs
-VIX derivatives

The name of the game hasn’t changed. It’s still buy assets, compound wealth. Today we just have a million ways to hedge our wealth.

Since we can’t predict any risk event, we have no way of truly knowing when the market may downturn. What we do know is that risk events don’t last forever (VIX is not built to continue upward). We also know that Trillions of dollars is hedging the markets at all times. This means any risk event that would have wiped away wealth for years, wipes it off until OpEx and options insurance kicks in.

Money is hedged at all times, so dips get eaten up constantly. Since wealth keeps being created ($30T in wealth since the start of the pandemic) there is ALWAYS buying pressure.

Had the Covid-19 Pandemic taken place in 2005, it would have taken years to recover in the market. Now, a couple months of risk adjustment and buying dips and we bounce right back. Until the market takes away it’s hedging products, this is likely to continue and we will perennially be in a bull market. Most people with money know this.

I personally would welcome a collapse. So would most of the people I deal with financially.

No, not even remotely close.

a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

The economy, or markets, aren’t the same as 2008/2014 or any other time frame you want to point to.

Agreed.

The market (see SPY) isn’t even remotely similar to previous iterations we’ve had, so trying to overlay things toward eras that don’t exist (Great Depression, Tech Bubble, 2008 Crash) is a fools errand.

While the market is functionally different for the reasons you've laid out below, it's still driven by the economy and the economy is about to collapse. Many of the things you've listed below are a function of why it's going to crash.

I'll explain using the following example of yours:

This means any risk event that would have wiped away wealth for years, wipes it off until OpEx and options insurance kicks in.

The market has been turned into an infinite money machine, NOT an infinite wealth machine. These are two very distinct things but people have a hard time separating them. Money is synonymous with wealth until it is not and we are getting near the point that it 'is not.'

When people stop going to work they stop producing goods and services. If there is excess money, this drives the price up (a big driver of the current inflation). Typically this problem self resolves with supply/demand pricing. However, when the government decides to interfere (sends people money or institutes price controls), it distorts the curve. Then you have a market that is designed to only go up putting money in people's pockets as well. Yet the amount of goods available still hasn't increased. So what happens? Well normally the market would correct and take money out of peoples pockets to help balance this imbalance but, as you've pointed out, that's not how the market works anymore.

So the market goes higher, the goods can't keep pace, inflation goes higher. Confidence in the dollar plummets. All because we built an infinite money machine and thought that would work. It's a fundamental misunderstanding of goods and money and it is something that is pervasively glossed over in macroeconomics education both online and institutionally.

Take a look at labor force participation if you think I'm wrong about the lack of goods.

Until the market takes away it’s hedging products, this is likely to continue and we will perennially be in a bull market.

Agreed. I've ridden this wave for a long time. It looks like the jig is up to me. When the market no longer represents the economy, it's just a matter of time before it all comes crashing down.

I personally would welcome a collapse. So would most of the people I deal with financially.

They must misunderstand what a non-rigged crash is. They can experience it in venezuela or most of africa if they'd like.

a reply to: GeechQuestInfo

The problem is that my primary residence and vehicle's aren't really assets. They're expenses. I have to have a place to live and I have to have transportation. No matter the dollar amount tied to them I cannot replace them with something similar and make the money in 'equity' that I have in them. If I could live without a home or a vehicle, I'd be in good shape, but since that's not really plausible it doesn't help me.

And again, the point was that you said if people hid money under a mattress they would have beat inflation. It's simply not true. Let's say they stashed 50k. When they went to get their money out from under the mattress they'd still only have 50k. Yet, for what they could have bought 2 new vehicles for last year, they can barely buy one and have a little left over this year.

That's what's so #ty about inflation. It's akin to a retroactive tax on every dollar you keep in your possession.

a reply to: Dfairlite

That's the point you buy something that on the surface looks great, but the running costs are a drain. A house with a mortgage rate at one time is doable, but a third party that changes the rules of the game have you stuffed. A nice range rover looks great until the price of fuel breaks you. If you look into it not much of the modern world is sustainable. It's nice on the surface but essentially unaffordable as a long-term bet. It seems to be all third-party risk which means any personal control is illusory.

a reply to: musicismagic

It depends, if our constitutional republic is still functioning, the mid term elections are the chance to correct our course. If you are dissatisfied, get out and vote. We have a good system if its allowed to work. Its kept this country pretty stable for 245 years.

a reply to: openminded2011

Come on America get rid of the criminals and reinstate the Republic we all miss you.

a reply to: MDDoxs

I just looked out the window and you are wrong, nothing has collapsed. It’s screwy for sure. Overly dramatic much?

Made ya look!

The spirit world is more real than you think.