It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.
Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.
Thank you.
Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.
originally posted by: Skepticape
I never said the vaxxed immune system was stronger, don’t pretend we are agreeing about your lies now.
Totally illogical and misunderstanding of your own example. The vaxxed immune system is not stronger, it’s compromised. You’re spreading lies. The diverse natural immune system is also capable of making spike antibodies, natural immunity is better verifiably than the vax- which has limited the immune system from being able to process a diverse threat, to something far more limited.
You’re offering us lies and propaganda.
As I already proved to you with your wolf example, evolution isn’t random- put the wolves in a colder climate and there next generation will be better adapted to the cold than the parents. Put the virus in a vaxxed body that’s not effective like we have here, and the next generation will be better able to handle the new environment. External stimuli such as environment does direct evolution. It’s not Yahtzee. There’s no situation where a mutation would only impact the unvaxxed as the vaccine is not effect enough to offer protection, however you agree there is a situation where the compromise vaxxed system could be vulnerable.
Do you understand the vax itself doesn’t fight covid? Covid could never “defeat the vax” but it can and has killed the host. The unvaxxed are also not creating more variants as you suggest. You’re fear mongering
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
Yeah. The vaxxed immune system is indeed stronger.
But the payout, if a given variant were to defeat it is so much greater, that the difficulty is outweighed by it.
It takes more "trys" to find a winning variant, but each instance of exposure is a different "try". Since the vaxed vastly outnumber the unvaxxed (and overwhelmingly outnumber any one variation of unvaxxed immune system), there are more "tries".
Like it you had to roll a full "yatzee" of five 1's in a row to win, but you get ten thousand rolls. As opposed to only needing to roll "snake eyes" on two dice to win, but you get a hundred rolls.
But also in the "yatzee" case, you win big if you win. Because vaxxed will come into contact with vaxxed much more frequently than unvaxxed version 99 coming into contact with unvaxxed version 99. So a variant might emerge that can defeat unvaxxed version 99 only to see the host die and/or recover before ever encountering another unvaxxed version 99. But if a variant manages to defeat the vax, it will have a high probability of managing to encounter another vaxxed person before the current host can recover and/or die.
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
originally posted by: Skepticape
I never said the vaxxed immune system was stronger, don’t pretend we are agreeing about your lies now.
Totally illogical and misunderstanding of your own example. The vaxxed immune system is not stronger, it’s compromised. You’re spreading lies. The diverse natural immune system is also capable of making spike antibodies, natural immunity is better verifiably than the vax- which has limited the immune system from being able to process a diverse threat, to something far more limited.
You’re offering us lies and propaganda.
As I already proved to you with your wolf example, evolution isn’t random- put the wolves in a colder climate and there next generation will be better adapted to the cold than the parents. Put the virus in a vaxxed body that’s not effective like we have here, and the next generation will be better able to handle the new environment. External stimuli such as environment does direct evolution. It’s not Yahtzee. There’s no situation where a mutation would only impact the unvaxxed as the vaccine is not effect enough to offer protection, however you agree there is a situation where the compromise vaxxed system could be vulnerable.
Do you understand the vax itself doesn’t fight covid? Covid could never “defeat the vax” but it can and has killed the host. The unvaxxed are also not creating more variants as you suggest. You’re fear mongering
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
Yeah. The vaxxed immune system is indeed stronger.
But the payout, if a given variant were to defeat it is so much greater, that the difficulty is outweighed by it.
It takes more "trys" to find a winning variant, but each instance of exposure is a different "try". Since the vaxed vastly outnumber the unvaxxed (and overwhelmingly outnumber any one variation of unvaxxed immune system), there are more "tries".
Like it you had to roll a full "yatzee" of five 1's in a row to win, but you get ten thousand rolls. As opposed to only needing to roll "snake eyes" on two dice to win, but you get a hundred rolls.
But also in the "yatzee" case, you win big if you win. Because vaxxed will come into contact with vaxxed much more frequently than unvaxxed version 99 coming into contact with unvaxxed version 99. So a variant might emerge that can defeat unvaxxed version 99 only to see the host die and/or recover before ever encountering another unvaxxed version 99. But if a variant manages to defeat the vax, it will have a high probability of managing to encounter another vaxxed person before the current host can recover and/or die.
We actually agree quite a bit.
I think the Vax is a hard barrier to overcome. Just like how if you put the wolves in a colder environment, the environment would be harsher and they would have to try harder in order to thrive there.
This doesn't mean they wouldn't thrive. But in a sense it is harder to thrive than if you put them in a warm forest.
The rest we seem to mostly agree on. When many people share one immune system, the virus only needs to successfully mutate once, and it gets access to many many hosts.
If they all had different immune systems, then when the virus mutates to overcome one of them, it only gains access to a few hosts (those which share that type of immune system.)
And this has played out. It has been shown that most people who got covid got it at home from other members of their own family (who, being family, would likely have similar immune systems.)
And no matter how good a mutation is, if the virus carrying the mutation dies out before it can jump to another host, that mutation will be lost forever. As though it had never existed.
So availability of similar hosts is a very important concern for a mutating virus.
If the vaccine worked, this wouldn’t be a conversation. The vaccinated wouldn’t be able to contract covid-19, they wouldn’t carry a viral load, they wouldn’t spread it or any new mutations random or otherwise to others. Since it doesn’t work, they can and will do all those things. It’s odd there is so much vaccinated vs unvaccinated talk understanding no group only participated in sharing the virus to others.
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: Irishhaf
And mutations only happen because of a "leaky vaccine?" They don't happen when there is no vaccine at all?
originally posted by: Skepticape
I never said the vaxxed immune system was stronger, don’t pretend we are agreeing about your lies now.
Totally illogical and misunderstanding of your own example. The vaxxed immune system is not stronger, it’s compromised. You’re spreading lies. The diverse natural immune system is also capable of making spike antibodies, natural immunity is better verifiably than the vax- which has limited the immune system from being able to process a diverse threat, to something far more limited.
You’re offering us lies and propaganda.
As I already proved to you with your wolf example, evolution isn’t random- put the wolves in a colder climate and there next generation will be better adapted to the cold than the parents.
Put the virus in a vaxxed body that’s not effective like we have here, and the next generation will be better able to handle the new environment. External stimuli such as environment does direct evolution. It’s not Yahtzee. There’s no situation where a mutation would only impact the unvaxxed as the vaccine is not effect enough to offer protection, however you agree there is a situation where the compromise vaxxed system could be vulnerable.
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
That proves that it is harder for the disease to infect them.
Yet, it still can.
Just has a lower probability.
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
You're not understanding how viruses work.
It's similar to how hackers work in the computer world.
Viruses tailor themselves to hit specific targets.
If you have an immunity, the virus finds a way to defeat it.
Viruses don't so much aim to win "the game" as they aim to win "the opponent in front of them."
This is JUST PLAIN WRONG.
The virus DOES discriminate. Each version of it is better at beating one immune system, or another, and weaker against other immune systems.
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
originally posted by: Skepticape
I never said the vaxxed immune system was stronger, don’t pretend we are agreeing about your lies now.
Totally illogical and misunderstanding of your own example. The vaxxed immune system is not stronger, it’s compromised. You’re spreading lies. The diverse natural immune system is also capable of making spike antibodies, natural immunity is better verifiably than the vax- which has limited the immune system from being able to process a diverse threat, to something far more limited.
The probability of infection for Vaxed is still lower than for unvaxed. And vaxed people are tending to be pretty careless about masks and stuff, at least here in Portland.
That proves that it is harder for the disease to infect them.
Yet, it still can. Just has a lower probability.
However, it also gets to roll the dice substantially more times. And only needs to win once. It can lose all it wants so long as it wins once.
In the end, getting to roll more times outweighs it being a harder number to roll.
You’re offering us lies and propaganda.
As I already proved to you with your wolf example, evolution isn’t random- put the wolves in a colder climate and there next generation will be better adapted to the cold than the parents.
You're not understanding how viruses work. It's similar to how hackers work in the computer world.
Viruses tailor themselves to hit specific targets. If you have an immunity, the virus finds a way to defeat it.
The wolf that just evolved a warmer coat will do great in the Cold now, but would be quite weak if it were then to try surviving in a desert.
Viruses don't so much aim to win "the game" as they aim to win "the opponent in front of them."
Put the virus in a vaxxed body that’s not effective like we have here, and the next generation will be better able to handle the new environment. External stimuli such as environment does direct evolution. It’s not Yahtzee. There’s no situation where a mutation would only impact the unvaxxed as the vaccine is not effect enough to offer protection, however you agree there is a situation where the compromise vaxxed system could be vulnerable.
This is JUST PLAIN WRONG.
The virus DOES discriminate. Each version of it is better at beating one immune system, or another, and weaker against other immune systems.
The danger of the Vax is that every contact a vaxxed person makes with someone who has the disease is a separate roll of the Yahtzee dice. A new mutation getting a chance to see if it will be the one that can overcome the Moderna barrier.
Meaning that both :
A - Corona is getting a lot more tries at beating it.
And
B - If it succeeds once in finding the right mutation, that mutation has a high probability of making it to another host.
If instead we had gone the path of natural immunity by waiting for people to get it and recover, there would be hundreds of differently configured immune systems.
So even if a new mutation emerges that can beat one of those immune systems it would have a diminished likelihood of spreading far and wide, because only a small percentage of those exposed to it would have the right immune system for it to be able to infect them.
This means that, even when a mutation like that emerges, there is a good chance it dies out, and ends up only infecting exactly one person.
originally posted by: More1ThanAny1
a reply to: bloodymarvelous
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
That proves that it is harder for the disease to infect them.
Yet, it still can.
Just has a lower probability.
That is incorrect. Everyone has the same exact probability of getting infected. The vaccine isn't some magical force field, it just introduces your immune system to a new antigen. Your immune system does all the work in the end. Your immune system doesn't extend outside of your body. In order for a vaccinated person to "fight" the virus they first have to get infected with it so their immune system can respond.
It is important to note that immune response time is not instant. There is plenty of time for the virus to replicate before Memory T cells can do their job. In fact, it takes 2 to 3 days for Memory T cells to even start to divide. That means 2 to 3 days the virus gets to replicate (and possibly mutate) inside your body even when vaccinated.
That delay in immune system response means vaccinated people can transmit the virus even if the vaccine was 100% effective. However, transmission is determined by viral load (determined by how much the virus has replicated) which is determined by many other factors.
originally posted by: bloodymarvelous
You're not understanding how viruses work.
It's similar to how hackers work in the computer world.
Viruses tailor themselves to hit specific targets.
If you have an immunity, the virus finds a way to defeat it.
Viruses don't so much aim to win "the game" as they aim to win "the opponent in front of them."
This is JUST PLAIN WRONG.
The virus DOES discriminate. Each version of it is better at beating one immune system, or another, and weaker against other immune systems.
That is really wrong. I am not sure if you are speaking in analogous terms or what, but let's all understand that viruses are not technically alive. They don't aim to do anything. They don't think. They don't discriminate. They are nothing but clumps of matter which, due to their makeup and shape, have unique uncontrolled interactions with everything they come into contact with.
Think of viruses as a series of random building blocks that act like instructions, like a short snippet of computer code that doesn't make any sense. In most cases nobody wrote this code, it just came to be. By itself the instructions don't do anything because they need to be given to a computer to run. The "computers" are cells inside of your body.
That is the main reason viruses are bad, they are like random nonsensical instructions that are being executed without authorization on a computer. Things like that are going to crash the computer or cause it to operate in abnormal ways. However, there is one set of instructions on every virus that does make sense, and those are instructions to copy and paste. To replicate.
It is said that viruses need a host to "survive" but even that is not entirely true. That is like saying computer code needs to run on a computer to survive. That is not how it works. However, viruses are always at the mercy of their environment. At the physical layer light, heat, and other forces can randomly alter / mutate / damage / destroy the code. That happens completely randomly. Any part of the virus' instructions can randomly change at any point. So in order for the virus / code to continue to exist there needs to be backup copies of it somewhere. The issue is that only computers can make a copy. Also, the code that tells it to copy must exist and not be destroyed.
Another issue is that computers are not perfect at copying and pasting. So the resulting copy can have random changes / mutations in the instructions too. These mutations are so random that a majority of the time the changes degrade and destroy the virus. This usually means the older a virus is, the weaker it becomes. Think of the random bytes in computer instructions being changed or even deleted, it makes the code even more nonsensical.
However, it is possible (and very rare) to randomly change the code in a way that makes the viruses more infectious and or more deadly (or gain function of some sort). This is rare because it's like taking code and blindly changing it for no rhyme or reason at any point and magically having coded it to do a specific function. There is a much much higher probability of just breaking the code. To gain function by randomly modifying code would be like winning the lottery many times in a row.
In the extremely rare case that it gains function it is entirely possible for the virus to kill all the computers it runs on (become more deadly). That means backup copies can no longer be made. That makes it very difficult for that virus to exist. That makes it even more rare for a virus to get more deadly over time (on top of having to randomly change to be more deadly). That is a way to say that deadlier viruses are harder to spread because it kills their hosts before getting a chance to transmit to another person.
On the other hand, if the mutation causes the virus to more easily make copies of itself, well, that means there are more backup copies and it becomes more infectious. Being more infectious means the virus exists for longer periods of time, and can spread to more computers. So its more common for viruses to become weaker yet more infectious, and yet less deadly.
With that said... our immune systems are very much like antivirus software on a computer. Vaccines are very much like updated definitions for the antivirus. It can detect these snippets of code we call viruses, delete them, or encapsulate them into "quarantine", and disable them. Sometimes our immune systems don't care and will delete everything, even healthy cells, in an effort to clean up. That is usually what causes the most damage, not the virus itself.
One problem is that virus definitions are somewhat specific, and if the virus changes slightly the immune system won't be able to detect it early. The immune system is also slow, so the virus has time to make copies and or mutate. Anything the immune system misses or doesn't recognize can become the next vaccine-resistant variant if its transmitted to others.
In the end, viruses don't do anything but enter cells, replicate, and randomly change. It is by random chance they become either weaker or stronger. After that it is by natural selection whether they continue or not. If the host dies before they can spread to the next host, or the immune system completely cleans it out first, that strain stops existing. Since vaccines only help the immune system remove certain strains, any strains it misses possibly becomes the next variant that is vaccine-resistant. In that way vaccines help filter out old strains, and allow new strains to exist.
TLDR; It's all randomness. Stop thinking viruses are assassins learning better ways to kill. They are just glitches in the matrix.
originally posted by: More1ThanAny1
That is really wrong. I am not sure if you are speaking in analogous terms or what, but let's all understand that viruses are not technically alive. They don't aim to do anything. They don't think. They don't discriminate. They are nothing but clumps of matter which, due to their makeup and shape, have unique uncontrolled interactions with everything they come into contact with.
Think of viruses as a series of random building blocks that act like instructions, like a short snippet of computer code that doesn't make any sense. In most cases nobody wrote this code, it just came to be. By itself the instructions don't do anything because they need to be given to a computer to run. The "computers" are cells inside of your body.
That is the main reason viruses are bad, they are like random nonsensical instructions that are being executed without authorization on a computer. Things like that are going to crash the computer or cause it to operate in abnormal ways. However, there is one set of instructions on every virus that does make sense, and those are instructions to copy and paste. To replicate.
It is said that viruses need a host to "survive" but even that is not entirely true. That is like saying computer code needs to run on a computer to survive. That is not how it works. However, viruses are always at the mercy of their environment. At the physical layer light, heat, and other forces can randomly alter / mutate / damage / destroy the code. That happens completely randomly. Any part of the virus' instructions can randomly change at any point. So in order for the virus / code to continue to exist there needs to be backup copies of it somewhere. The issue is that only computers can make a copy. Also, the code that tells it to copy must exist and not be destroyed.
Another issue is that computers are not perfect at copying and pasting. So the resulting copy can have random changes / mutations in the instructions too. These mutations are so random that a majority of the time the changes degrade and destroy the virus. This usually means the older a virus is, the weaker it becomes. Think of the random bytes in computer instructions being changed or even deleted, it makes the code even more nonsensical.