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originally posted by: ScepticScot
originally posted by: neutronflux
originally posted by: ScepticScot
originally posted by: neutronflux
a reply to: ScepticScot
What’s that brilliant sign going around?
If six feet apart was effective, why the masks?
If masks are effective, why social distancing?
If the above two were effective, why the lockdowns?
If the above three was effective, why the vaccines?
If the above four were effective, why the delta variant?
If you think that's a brilliant sign it might explain your confusion.
Social distancing doesn't stop the spread , it reduces it.
Wearing masks doesn't stop the spread, it reduces it.
If you do both you reduce it more. It's a fairly simple concept.
So, then masks aren’t effective at actual stopping the spread.
But some how reduce the spread they never did prevented?
Whatever.
But they are “effective” enough in “preventing” reaching some arbitrary number pulled out of some person’s butt. And then claiming biasedly “look, it never reached the imaginary number we made up.”
Sorry you find it difficult to understand.
Doesn't mean that masks don't work.
The Delta Variant Will Drive A Steep Rise In U.S. COVID Deaths, A New Model Shows
www.npr.org...
APRIL 21, 2020 3:05PM
How One Model Simulated 2.2 Million U.S. Deaths from COVID-19
www.cato.org...
A month later that 2.2 million estimate was still being used (without revealing the source) by President Trump and Doctors Fauci and Birx to imply that up to two million lives had been saved by state lockdowns and business closings and/or by federal travel bans.
The key premise of 81% of the population being infected should have raised more alarms than it did. Even the deadly "Spanish Flu" (H1N1) pandemic of 1918-19 infected no more than 28% of the U.S. population. The next H1N1 "Swine Flu" pandemic in 2009-10, infected 20-24% of Americans.
To push the percentage infected up from 20-28% to an unprecedented 81% for COVID-19 required assuming the number of cases and/or deaths keeps doubling every three or four days for months (deaths were predicted to peak July 20). And that means assuming the estimated reproduction number (R0) of 2.4 remains high, and people keep mingling with different groups, until nearly everyone gets infected. Long before 8 out of 10 people became infected, however, a larger and larger percentage of the population would have recovered from the disease and become immune, so a smaller and smaller share would still remain susceptible
Study estimates nearly 1 in 4 New Yorkers had COVID-19 early in pandemic
www.ny1.com...
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: LordAhriman
I just attempted to duplicate your experiment and failed. Same amount of condensation with or without a face cover.
But your experiment is not really relevant. The virus is not carried on water vapor (which is composed of individual water molecules, much smaller than the virus), it is carried by water droplets (mucus, if you want to be more accurate). These droplets are expelled when we cough, or even speak.
Masks limit these quite effectively. Perfect? Probably not. But a lot better than nothing.
www.nejm.org...
I know.
My post was pro-mask.
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: LordAhriman
I know.
My post was pro-mask.
But your experiment is flawed, easily disproved, and amounts to disinformation. Condensation does not indicate efficacy.
No need to stoop to their level. Buddy.
What you are seeing on the mirror (or not) is condensed water vapor, not droplets as expelled during speech. The mirror is cooler than your breath so the water vapor condenses on the mirror the same way that on a cold day it condenses in the air and you can "see your breath." Try chilling the mirror a bit before each trial and see what happens.
Droplets are the moisture from our breath.
originally posted by: Phage What you are seeing on the mirror (or not) is condensed water vapor, not droplets as expelled during speech. The mirror is cooler than your breath so the water vapor condenses on the mirror the same way that on a cold day it condenses in the air and you can "see your breath." Try chilling the mirror a bit before each trial and see what happens.
In any case, as I said, I tried to duplicate your results and was not able to do so. Science.
Droplets = respiratory moisture.
Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19
www.pnas.org...
In addition, nascent micrometer-size aerosols produced from coughing/sneezing of infected people have the potential of containing many viruses, particularly for asymptomatic carriers (16).
Future research is critically needed to assess the transmission, transformation, and dispersion of virus-bearing aerosols from human atomization under different environmental conditions, as well as the related impacts on virus infectivity. It is equally important to understand human atomization of airborne viruses: What are the number and size distributions of nascent aerosols as well as the viral load per particle from coughing/sneezing?
The virus can also spread in poorly ventilated and/or crowded indoor settings, where people tend to spend longer periods of time. This is because aerosols remain suspended in the air or travel farther than 1 metre (long-range).
www.who.int...
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: PillarOfFire
Yes. We have immune systems.
So I guess smallpox vaccines (tetanus, polio...) were pointless. Oh, wait. They enabled our immune systems to do what they do without being exposed to the live disease itself.
Just like all vaccines do. Including the COVID vaccines.