ATS, give us your 2020 Electoral College Predictions!

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Let's just say mail in ballots were largely limited as before, or we could imagine a pure inperson vote..... what would you think the outcome would be? Trump wins by landslide? Biden wins?

Biden only gets the presidency with mail in ballots.

a reply to: Ahabstar

Ron Paul’s biggest problem was that he was Ron Paul. No power nor influence at that time. Was he right? Yes and was a conservative Libertarian to boot. JoJo is not conservative. Was Ron Paul ever fully vindicated? Absolutely. By the TEA Party, which he could have had but...

The only way there will be a new party is when one implodes and a new one is rebuilt from the ashes.

The idealistic part of me wants to disagree here. Hell, the logical side of me want's to say that can't be. At any given time there are roughly 30% of the country who identify as Dems, 30% as Repubicans. So that leaves 40% of the country unaffiliated, and on paper possible for a third party to take root if both parties drop 10% (those numbers differ every cycle).

But the realistic side says we won't do it. Too complacent.

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Let's just say mail in ballots were largely limited as before, or we could imagine a pure inperson vote..... what would you think the outcome would be? Trump wins by landslide? Biden wins?

Yes with mainly in person votes .

Trump would win probably with record numbers.

originally posted by: 10uoutlaw
a reply to: Southern Guardian

352 to 185 Trump

You mean Trump gets 352 or Biden gets it?

Either way.... rather generous I think!

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Yes with mainly in person votes .

Trump would win probably with record numbers.

Thanks asabuv! Just wanted to clarify. I know people are negative about the elections and security but wanted to get your insight on the support out there. I take it by record numbers he wins all swing states plus more?

Interesting.... sure if that's the case, record numbers, hypothetically if votes were interfered with, they may not be able to interfere enough to stop trump? I mean turning 1 million Trump votes to Biden for example would take a massive undertaking of individuals? No? And a landslide would account for way more than this ahead of Biden?

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Yes with mainly in person votes .

Trump would win probably with record numbers.

Thanks asabuv! Just wanted to clarify. I know people are negative about the elections and security but wanted to get your insight on the support out there. I take it by record numbers he wins all swing states plus more?

Interesting.... sure if that's the case, record numbers, hypothetically if votes were interfered with, they may not be able to interfere enough to stop trump? I mean turning 1 million Trump votes to Biden for example would take a massive undertaking of individuals? No? And a landslide would account for way more than this ahead of Biden?

The best the Right can hope for is that Bidens Base loses faith and refuses to vote for him .

Even if Democratic voters leave Biden in droves and they may well do that , they will chop off there arm before they vote for Trump.

Trump will get his base and then some this go around , but the question is will it be enough.?

With the mail in ballots , I doubt it but we will see because Biden is very weak like I said his base may simply refuse to vote for him.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Well you know how the militia group The 3% believe that only 3% of the population actually fought in The Revolution? It was actually 11%, 1/9th of the population that fought. All semantics in the end but...the grain of truth is only a minority will actively participate in any given thing.

For example, very few people will do the required practice to be able to play guitar, harmonica, etc with any degree of proficiency. Thus there will always be people who play guitar and those that do not.

We will replace a party before we create a standing viable third party. And right now, there is a better chance that the Democrats become Libertarians than the Republicans becoming Libertarians. Of course someone will bring up the Green Party or maybe even the American Socialist Party. Both failed because ASP will never get past the truth in advertising (and the DNC takes them in anyway) and the GP is probably the ones that write the DNC policy anyway because “imitation (blatantly ripping it off a couple years later) is the highest form of flattery.”

a reply to: Ahabstar

Well you know how the militia group The 3% believe that only 3% of the population actually fought in The Revolution? It was actually 11%, 1/9th of the population that fought. All semantics in the end but...the grain of truth is only a minority will actively participate in any given thing.

I don't think that would work in today's day in age. Honestly, someone has to win in the market place of ideas. I know it sounds corny, but with technology, anything bad that happens will be permanent for all eyes to see. No way anything violent turns out well for the victors even when the ashes settle.

We will replace a party before we create a standing viable third party.

Agreed.

there is a better chance that the Democrats become Libertarians than the Republicans becoming Libertarians.

I'm just scared that refugees from either party would mess up the best part about libertarians, and that's the fiscal platform. Depending on the context, almost everyone will agree the federal government if possessing too much power is bad. Whether it be how it spends or fear of abuse of power. We were set up correctly to begin with, and that was with a larger balance of local autonomy.

I just don't see how a large federal government can do anything efficiently across the country. You're talking about city people dealing with one of the hardest things and that's our land mass. States and localities should be more competent, and I don't see how that ever happens when people expect everything to come from the federal government.

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Let's just say mail in ballots were largely limited as before, or we could imagine a pure inperson vote..... what would you think the outcome would be? Trump wins by landslide? Biden wins?

Honestly it depends on how many mail in votes there are and what counties they come from. On purely motivating their base to get out and vote Trump wins, even then there are so many variables.Do the older and elderly get their votes in? I'd imagine more of those took advantage of mailing in their ballots but seriously who knows. We are in uncharted waters, I won't be surprised by any out come really except a Biden landslide LOL its 2020 after all.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

www.270towin.com...


I think I did that right...Anyway, I am probably over optimistic. I have Trump winning 305 to 212

originally posted by: Southern Guardian
Jesus you're really giving Biden Florida?? I'd love your thinking behind this!?

He'll out geezer Trump in God's Waiting Room.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

Trump, I think his support is deeper than people know

Trump 304 Biden 233

I don't see Biden carrying Pennsylvania with the energy platforms and rallies Trump had been doing there, I think the GOP base is excited there and that no one in Pennsylvania is energized to vote Biden, just against Trump, not a great recipe for success.

I think Arizona goes blue , I think Omar and the riots flip Minnesota Red, and I think Trump carries all the other states he won in 2016.

I think the polls are skewed by the same margins they were in 2016, but they also are still polling much closer than Hillary and Trump were. I think COVID ultimately gives Trump a boost and he comes back strong and appears and will play it and act a lot more sympathetic.

I don't think it will be that close, even with some Dem #ery. I think the campaign actions and efforts show that the internal polling also suggests this and both sides know it. I also think this has been part of the DNC playbook for awhile as well, they knew beating Trump was an uphill battle and ran a poor candidate and VP choice in order to not have a decent candidate lose and lose momentum for 4 years from now when it is wide open again. They ran it this way as a way to mitigate the loss, if they win they have a president they can threaten to force out if he doesn't either retire or quit during the term, and they have 4 years to set up Kamala as basically an incumbent and if they don't like her go a different direction there as well. Out of all the Dem nonsense, this plan makes sense to me and it would be what I would do. They started stepping up door to door campaigning hoping Trumps diagnosis causes an unexpected shift in internal polling in swing states.

Of course I could be wrong , it is just how I am reading the terrain.

originally posted by: scyther2286
I think COVID ultimately gives Trump a boost...

Unless the 'Vid has something else in mind for him.

a reply to: putnam6

Also you can use mail in votes to sway the numbers only to a certain extent. There becomes a certain point where basic mathematics can prove that some sort of debauchery has occured. The mathematics of statistics is not talked about enough when people start worrying about voter fraud.

It is why they can call a state with a small percentage of votes reporting, because mathematically the percentage of the votes can not change dramatically enough based on p value and standard deviation to change the outcome.

The last thing you want to do is commit fraud in a way that makes it over 95% certain you cheated.

www.270towin.com...

Its a little early for this still, but I think Trump likely wins this election. The polls aren't great, but I think there are reasons to believe he will outperform them again in this cycle.

-He has proven he can win the swing states in a high turnout election.

-The GOP is winning the voter registration battle in several of those key swing states. Biden's team has realized this in the last few days and is scrambling to mount a 'ground game'.

-Trump voters seem considerably more enthusiastic about their candidate than are Biden voters.

-There's a good chance this will be a low turnout election due to the pandemic, especially among the 'moderates', a group that would otherwise probably lean toward Biden.

-We're probably due for another round of leftist bad behavior once the ACB confirmation hearings begin.

All told, I think he will win Florida and NC, probably wins Pennsylvania, and also likely wins at least one of Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin...possibly all three. Here, I gave him Wisconsin, just as a more conservative projection due to having fewer EVs than Michigan. Arizona is a wildcard, and it and Pennsylvania will likely decide this election, IMO. I don't expect anything else to change.

Trumps wins in a landslide that is bigger than the Regan Carter one. Sure some people hate the President because the media has got them to hate him for no good reason but who the hell on this planet would vote for a President with Dementia?

Joint Chief says, Sir we need your orders to hit back, the ICBMs are inbound! Biden says""Attack who, ah get me my breakfast, common man just get me my fruity pebbles""

I've changed my mind....

I think Biden wins now.

I believe Trump could have even gotten more of an advantage with sympathy for have catching COVID. But he no stimulus bill until after the election. Personally I think the bills are horrible and just a hemorrhaging waste of money, but many people view them with positivity and want them.

It didn't have to pass, and he could have just stalled it all the same, but his vocalization of it painted himself as a target.

That is contingent he doesn't come back and do some "aRt oF tHe dEal" stuff and come back to the table.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

But he no stimulus bill until after the election. Personally I think the bills are horrible and just a hemorrhaging waste of money, but many people view them with positivity and want them.

Yes, I heard a lot of people were upset about this. I'm actually surprised it's making as much of an impact as people claim? He seems to have gotten away with cutting programs and stuff up until this point all of a sudden.

Also, I'm considering moving Florida into Biden's column. Seems to be consistently heading his way....

a reply to: Southern Guardian

I changed my prediction based on the early stealing results that are coming in...