ATS, give us your 2020 Electoral College Predictions!

a reply to: Southern Guardian

I think it's going to be a lot closer this time and can really go either way. But when I run through each state I get Biden 160 and Trump 178. My map the winner comes down to who takes Pennsylvania.

www.270towin.com...

a reply to: dragonridr

Ah, we're not too different... our predictions. I mean you've given Ohio and Penn. to Trump.... those are the two states I feel are most vulnerable for Biden in terms of toss-ups.

Arizona, I mean I'm seeing trends but I have a hunch it will just flip over.

My honest opinion.

Trump will win the Electoral College.

But the left will state that Biden deserved to win, so they will stage an overt coup this time.

They've already shown (with Covid) that they have no regard for the Constitution and Bill of Rights.

Reference this post after the election, we'll see if I'm wrong.

a reply to: Ahabstar

JoJo gets a lot of attention from the right for her 2nd Amendment stance, but that is the only attention she gets from the right. The extreme left won’t like her stance there, but she checks all the boxes on everything else including but not limited to: no borders, pro abortion, open immigration, defunding federal funding of police, etc.

I think you're right here about how the right will see her.

And while your representation on her stance towards police isn't wrong... I just want to point out I think it has to do more with her overall attitude towards the war on drugs. Libertarians tend to hate that burning of cash as if it's a contest. That being said, i think you're still correct as the right will perceive it as anti police.

originally posted by: DBCowboy
Reference this post after the election, we'll see if I'm wrong.

Ah, I think we're all putting ourselves out there by posting our thoughts.

I mean the polls are confusing, it's hard to put full trust and be 100% confident anymore.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Thing with PA is that Biden grew up in Scranton until 10. But it is a hick town near upstate New York to everyone in Philly and Pittsburgh. Biden would have garnered more support in PA if he was from Camden, NJ or Wheeling, WV. And they hate both those places.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

A few faithless or invalid votes could cripple the chances in a close race to get the 270. Too few to completely rule out the possibility of corruption as the primary mitigating factor that decides the Executive.

originally posted by: DBCowboy

originally posted by: Middleoftheroad
538-0 Biden wins by mail in ballots.

Nailed it.

Oh! neh, neh, neh,
Nobody has said that there will be a free Meerkat dolly for one...in the post...nobody think of that?

It certainly would give the electoral college a fecking headache.

a reply to: Southern Guardian


My view on the polls is simple if its within 4 it will go to Trump. He has about 5 percent of voters hidden from the polls. Its the people that dont want people to know they are voting Trump. This is why its hard to poll Trump because people will just lie. So if the polls within 4 Are likely Trump, Florida I just spent 2 weeks there and its going to be a Trump landslide or we are deaing with the opisit problem in Florida and they dont want to admit they want Biden. You see 1 biden sign for every 200 trump.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Police just became the new military issue of the Reagan days. You either supported the military (wasn’t even support the troops until George W.) or you were supporting America’s enemies.

Now you either support the police or want to defund the police. There is no in between. But the Libertarian viewpoint has always been that the federal should not be funding local projects like police departments. JoJo is stuck adhering to the party line.

originally posted by: SuperStudChuck

originally posted by: Ahabstar
a reply to: Southern Guardian

Problem with the election this year is the wildcard of JoJo. No one is talking about her or even acknowledging her. But...

1. Her website crashed from traffic overload during the first debate.
2. She can pull a whole lot of votes from Joe Biden because is cleaner, more left and a woman without Harris’s baggage. And despite Pence being an all around “good guy” he is more than capable of asking an integrity question of how she agree to be the running mate of a guy she called a racist and rapist during the primary...


JoJo got a big bump. And I think that hurts Biden way more than Trump. I don’t foresee any Yellow states, but see more of an orange tinge than purple happening here and there.

Post debate, I see my liberal contacts pushing for Jojo. No one in the solid Trump camp moved. As a true libertarian who voted for Gary Johnson, there is no way I vote for Jojo.

You're the 1st person to bring this up. Trump base remains committed, however, Biden lost the Bernie Bros, it was them who crashed Jo's website.

a reply to: Southern Guardian

I think it will be closer then either side expects and not because of polling.

On one side there is the right, who are more pissed off then they were in 2016 and a new facet to that... the Democrat and independent voters who will not doxx themselves and come out and say that they are voting for Trump for fear of the left's brownshirts giving them a little visit or losing their jobs. So in terms of actual human voters, Trump will see better numbers then last time.

On the other side there is the left, who have normally enjoyed a 5-6% padding in Presidential elections through election fraud and ballot harvesting. You know, like how Obama won 107% of a parish, 104% of a county, etc. However, now they have upped their game through mail-in voting... a system designed to fail in a Federal election and ripe for abuse.

It will be interesting to watch, for sure.

I think it will be such an epic train wreck it wont matter, only 18 states routinely do bulk ballots through the mail the rest have little to no infrastructure for delivery, reception, counting, storage and security of ballots.

Doesnt matter who is declared the winner we are looking at court cases for ever since one side already said they will not concede and should not concede no matter what.

(hint not trump)

a reply to: Ahabstar

Police just became the new military issue of the Reagan days. You either supported the military (wasn’t even support the troops until George W.) or you were supporting America’s enemies.

Now you either support the police or want to defund the police. There is no in between. But the Libertarian viewpoint has always been that the federal should not be funding local projects like police departments

Purely from a realistic reading on how it's playing out... I can't argue that and think you're dead on. To the actually issue, usually I'd debate both sides on it at the same time. But it frankly isn't a high priority to me given everything that's going on at the moment. Seems to me to be a convenient wedge issue for both sides (but benefiting the right a little more IMO).

JoJo is stuck adhering to the party line.

I don't think she's stuck, I think she's running with what she believes. She's got nothing to lose, and I don't think her platform was exactly crafted to perfection. She's not my favorite flavor of Libertarian, and while I lean more towards Libertarian if we're talking notable parties, I still typically identify as an independent because they haven't been putting out the cream of the crop lately.

I'm more the Ron Paul type... And even he and I didn't see eye to eye on quite a few topics. But his idea to end the fed is brilliant, at least on paper. The issues I had with his platform were small boxes to check, I think ending the fed and putting our elected officials in a position of accountability with money is genius.

It's gonna be close and I don't think we know on November 3rd either. Maybe the end of the week

Trump by 10 in the end as some mail ballots are rightly disqualified in Pennsylvania given Trump the state and the win. The left goes bug# at the result and it's not a Happy Thanksgiving riots protests etc. etc.

a reply to: smurfy

As someone who lives in the second most liberal city in NC, I don't see it happening. Sure in the city you see a little Biden support, and I do mean a little. Outside of the city, you see Trump support just about everywhere else.

a reply to: CriticalStinker

Ron Paul’s biggest problem was that he was Ron Paul. No power nor influence at that time. Was he right? Yes and was a conservative Libertarian to boot. JoJo is not conservative. Was Ron Paul ever fully vindicated? Absolutely. By the TEA Party, which he could have had but...they were co-opted by the GOP. And the DNC got OWS who became the Bernie Bros.

The only way there will be a new party is when one implodes and a new one is rebuilt from the ashes. It is the way it has always been even when Buchanan (the worst president of all time) created the Democratic Party out of Andrew Jackson’s supporters from the old Federalist Party. And when the old Whigs and AbolitionistS formed into the Republican Party to combat Jackson’s Democrats.

Biden will win via Mail in Ballets.

a reply to: asabuvsobelow

Let's just say mail in ballots were largely limited as before, or we could imagine a pure inperson vote..... what would you think the outcome would be? Trump wins by landslide? Biden wins?

a reply to: Southern Guardian

352 to 185 Trump