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Was Shutting Down a Huge Mistake
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I'm posting this here to keep politics out of the topic. I'm only asking about whether shutting down proved to be the right move. I think it was a
mistake and a lesson we need to remember.
South Dakota made the choice to not actually shut down, so I'm using it as an example of what it may have looked like if the country and the world had not shut down. I think the statistics tell the story.
South Dakota's population is roughly 900,000.
Source of the data below.
As you can see instead of the dramatic spikes, South Dakota's stat's have remained more or less level, and yet the predictions of overwhelmed hospitals has not materialized.
National unemployment peaked at 14.7%, while South Dakota peaked at 10.9% and then started dropping quickly. If I take what I've seen in the News at face value, their employment numbers have recovered by 80%. Their economy will be back to normal long before much of the rest of the country.
Please wait for part 2.
South Dakota made the choice to not actually shut down, so I'm using it as an example of what it may have looked like if the country and the world had not shut down. I think the statistics tell the story.
South Dakota's population is roughly 900,000.
Source of the data below.
As you can see instead of the dramatic spikes, South Dakota's stat's have remained more or less level, and yet the predictions of overwhelmed hospitals has not materialized.
National unemployment peaked at 14.7%, while South Dakota peaked at 10.9% and then started dropping quickly. If I take what I've seen in the News at face value, their employment numbers have recovered by 80%. Their economy will be back to normal long before much of the rest of the country.
Please wait for part 2.
While here in Anchorage, Alaska we are in the middle of our second shutdown.
Anchorage Municipalities population is just under 300,000.
Total hospitalizations for the entire thing are at 105. At one point most medical professionals were either on some sort of leave or without work. Our capacity at hospitals could have easily withstood this with no lockdown.
While South Dakota’s economy will be nearly back to normal very shortly, Anchorages economy is destroyed. 30-40% of the service industry businesses are expected to permanently fail and 1 in 6 of all businesses will fail permanently.
I can’t help but wonder if this entire shutting down idea was a huge boondoggle. It won’t change the number of deaths in the end, but sure destroyed the economy and the economic lives of many here.
Then we have to consider what the global fallout will be. Will more people die from the economic collapse than the virus?
Anchorage Municipalities population is just under 300,000.
Total hospitalizations for the entire thing are at 105. At one point most medical professionals were either on some sort of leave or without work. Our capacity at hospitals could have easily withstood this with no lockdown.
While South Dakota’s economy will be nearly back to normal very shortly, Anchorages economy is destroyed. 30-40% of the service industry businesses are expected to permanently fail and 1 in 6 of all businesses will fail permanently.
I can’t help but wonder if this entire shutting down idea was a huge boondoggle. It won’t change the number of deaths in the end, but sure destroyed the economy and the economic lives of many here.
Then we have to consider what the global fallout will be. Will more people die from the economic collapse than the virus?
Yeah....we didn't shut down in 2017 when 1 point 6 million died of the dreaded TB....nary I saw and add a nada......nil.....a mask drawn from its
quick access..........like I did in Alaska last week.....yep got a 28 foot rv.....high centered almost in Homer.......drove the hunting road both ways
against policy but....yeah.....Denali Highway is not near Denali .....it's
The hunting road.....140 miles ....6 hours......one way.....smoke was 80 a quarter.... yep It's the hunting road called THE DENALI HIGHWAY......rentals forbidden but the tour bus goes so I did too.....I promise the exhaust had no hanger in the middle let the muffler drag a little......editby]edit on 16-8-2020 by GBP/JPY because: (no reason given)
The hunting road.....140 miles ....6 hours......one way.....smoke was 80 a quarter.... yep It's the hunting road called THE DENALI HIGHWAY......rentals forbidden but the tour bus goes so I did too.....I promise the exhaust had no hanger in the middle let the muffler drag a little......editby]edit on 16-8-2020 by GBP/JPY because: (no reason given)
edit on 16-8-2020 by GBP/JPY because: (no reason
given)
edit on 16-8-2020 by GBP/JPY because: (no reason given)
a reply to: Blaine91555
The worst economy since the panic of 1873 and the Great Depression says 'yes, it was a huge mistake'.
The worst economy since the panic of 1873 and the Great Depression says 'yes, it was a huge mistake'.
a reply to: Blaine91555
What is the population density of SD compared to other states?
Which city in SD is comparable to NYC, LA or other similar sized cities with all the other elements that made those cities perfect for spread?
What is the population density of SD compared to other states?
Which city in SD is comparable to NYC, LA or other similar sized cities with all the other elements that made those cities perfect for spread?
very bigly a mistake, most doctors that I remember reading back in january said majority would get it no matter what.
So all we did was wreck the economy for something that will just happen later in the year is all.
To play devils advocate from what I remember of living in south dakota (rapid city area) its fairly sparsley settled so may not be a fair gague.
So all we did was wreck the economy for something that will just happen later in the year is all.
To play devils advocate from what I remember of living in south dakota (rapid city area) its fairly sparsley settled so may not be a fair gague.
Considering the massive media blast, emphasizing fear and unknown, it was going to be the predicted move.
With the truth now revealed no. Now what...
We did what we thought we needed to do.
Now results of that decision has changed the world. The world economy has changed, as we can see here on ats, society has changed. As a matter a fact, if I was not mistaken everything is in transition to something else.
With the truth now revealed no. Now what...
We did what we thought we needed to do.
Now results of that decision has changed the world. The world economy has changed, as we can see here on ats, society has changed. As a matter a fact, if I was not mistaken everything is in transition to something else.
edit on 16-8-2020 by Bicent because: (no reason given)
a reply to: opethPA
I purposefully chose South Dakota to compare with Anchorage to look at it without factoring that in. The statewide numbers in Alaska are very similar to those of just Anchorage. I wanted it to be more apple to apple.
To be honest, up here it's the small villages where the most dramatic numbers are percentage wise.
The idea of the shutdowns was too slow it down, not prevent any cases. So unless a vaccine or cure show up right now, the same number of people will die as would have if it ran its course. The primary difference is the destruction of the economy, and when Western economies fail, people all over the world end up with less food and less medical care.
One thing it does point out is that massive sardine can cities actually have inadequate medical capabilities.
I purposefully chose South Dakota to compare with Anchorage to look at it without factoring that in. The statewide numbers in Alaska are very similar to those of just Anchorage. I wanted it to be more apple to apple.
To be honest, up here it's the small villages where the most dramatic numbers are percentage wise.
The idea of the shutdowns was too slow it down, not prevent any cases. So unless a vaccine or cure show up right now, the same number of people will die as would have if it ran its course. The primary difference is the destruction of the economy, and when Western economies fail, people all over the world end up with less food and less medical care.
One thing it does point out is that massive sardine can cities actually have inadequate medical capabilities.
South Dakota has low population density. I think the circumstances for each state might be different. I would have done a piecemeal approach (similar
to Trump) where each state and county gets to decide for themselves. That is because not only is the virus on a different timeline in each place, the
circumstances are different everywhere.
One problem is that Trump has no empathy for the big cities, and lack of empathy is a leadership fault. Kushner even advised Trump early on to do nothing about COVID because it would only affect the big cities, which are liberal havens. Bad move on Kushner's part - he forgot about the reality of karma.
The reason this is relevant is because if only the big cities shut down, the leadership would still have to be willing to shell out money to aid them, as it is a just cause and prudent to do so.
If the leadership in Washington is openly for using their power to get "revenge" on big cities or something, they will get voted out.
At any rate, I'm sure there would be a way to use data modeling and mathematics to construct a system where each county goes into lockdowns for the optimal period of time at the optimal times to keep hospital capacity in the green.
Don't forget that mandatory masks actually allow us to ease lockdowns, which helps the economy. Conservatives should be for them because it mathematically helps us open up sooner.
One problem is that Trump has no empathy for the big cities, and lack of empathy is a leadership fault. Kushner even advised Trump early on to do nothing about COVID because it would only affect the big cities, which are liberal havens. Bad move on Kushner's part - he forgot about the reality of karma.
The reason this is relevant is because if only the big cities shut down, the leadership would still have to be willing to shell out money to aid them, as it is a just cause and prudent to do so.
If the leadership in Washington is openly for using their power to get "revenge" on big cities or something, they will get voted out.
At any rate, I'm sure there would be a way to use data modeling and mathematics to construct a system where each county goes into lockdowns for the optimal period of time at the optimal times to keep hospital capacity in the green.
Don't forget that mandatory masks actually allow us to ease lockdowns, which helps the economy. Conservatives should be for them because it mathematically helps us open up sooner.
edit on 16pmSun, 16 Aug 2020 19:02:36 -0500kbpmkAmerica/Chicago by darkbake because: (no reason
given)
originally posted by: darkbake
South Dakota has low population density. I think the circumstances for each state might be different. I would have done a piecemeal approach (similar to Trump) where each state and county gets to decide for themselves. That is because not only is the virus on a different timeline in each place, the circumstances are different everywhere.
One problem is that Trump has no empathy for the big cities, and lack of empathy is a leadership fault. Kushner even advised Trump early on to do nothing about COVID because it would only affect the big cities, which are liberal havens. Bad move on Kushner's part - he forgot about the reality of karma.
The reason this is relevant is because if only the big cities shut down, the leadership would still have to be willing to shell out money to aid them, as it is a just cause and prudent to do so.
If the leadership in Washington is openly for using their power to get "revenge" on big cities or something, they will get voted out.
At any rate, I'm sure there would be a way to use data modeling and mathematics to construct a system where each county goes into lockdowns for the optimal period of time at the optimal times to keep hospital capacity in the green.
Don't forget that mandatory masks actually allow us to ease lockdowns, which helps the economy. Conservatives should be for them because it mathematically helps us open up sooner.
Trump has no empathy for the big cities? What planet are you living on dude?
He sent navy hospitals and did everything he could, short of overruling the stupid Governors of those places.
Try placing blame where it's due, on the murderous Dem Governors who put sick people in nursing homes.
originally posted by: Irishhaf
a reply to: opethPA
there is no comparison to the mega cities, when I moved to ellsworth AFB I had to drive east to west across the state, think I saw 200+ miles to next gas station twice.
I live in Sacramento County, in northern California; just one of more than fifty counties in the State.
My county, alone, has a population that exceeds the entire population of the state of South Dakota.
I don’t think we shut down for long enough, as a country.
We will see if, and to what extent, our decision to re-open when we did will have.
An economy can always be rebuilt, if there are people to rebuild it.
The dead can’t rebuild any kind of economy.
a reply to: Bhadhidar
Why do you think fewer people will die? That was never the goal? You do understand it was to slow down the hospitalizations and not to prevent deaths?
Have you considered the impact on the world as a whole? Less food, less money, less aid to the poorest countries will have its impact, part of which will be more deaths from the fallout from the economic collapse in the Western World.
How do you see the shutdown as being more effective than protecting the most vulnerable while the world went on as normal?
Why do you think fewer people will die? That was never the goal? You do understand it was to slow down the hospitalizations and not to prevent deaths?
Have you considered the impact on the world as a whole? Less food, less money, less aid to the poorest countries will have its impact, part of which will be more deaths from the fallout from the economic collapse in the Western World.
How do you see the shutdown as being more effective than protecting the most vulnerable while the world went on as normal?
a reply to: Blaine91555
Yes.
Shutting down was a huge mistake.
It made things worse.
Oh
Em
Gee
Shutting down was terrible.
That's all I can say without getting spanked by the mods.
Amen.
Yes.
Shutting down was a huge mistake.
It made things worse.
Oh
Em
Gee
Shutting down was terrible.
That's all I can say without getting spanked by the mods.
Amen.
We didn't know what we were dealing with for sure. Predictions were that millions in the US could die. It was a novel virus, or so we were told.
What was lurking in this virus? We just didn't know. Other countries were locking down and reporting large numbers of very sick people. Italy was
hit hard.
Then we learned what we are dealing with. We now know a whole lot more than we did. We know who is most vulnerable, who seems to be practically immune, and what remedies are available.
Time to open up and deal with it locality by locality.
China...that's all I'm going to say.
Then we learned what we are dealing with. We now know a whole lot more than we did. We know who is most vulnerable, who seems to be practically immune, and what remedies are available.
Time to open up and deal with it locality by locality.
China...that's all I'm going to say.
a reply to: queenofswords
China is all you need to say. People who don't suffer from TDS know what you mean.
China is all you need to say. People who don't suffer from TDS know what you mean.