Numbers Don't Lie

a reply to: blackrabbit1
Let's seee how accurate that statement is, as of July 20 Forbes that list is 33. 27 of the EU, China, Canada Mexico bring it to thirty. New Zealand Japan and Bahamas make it 33.

Pretty sure 33 out of over 200 will never qualify as most of the world. Mind you, some of those states still have exceptions allowing entry.

For comparison, what were the global travel restrictions like during ww2???

originally posted by: av8r007
a reply to: ScepticScot

You're trying to math geek the fact that the virus is not that dangerous. What I am saying is that 4 hundreths of 1% of the country died from coronavirus and it does not justify the economic, social, and well-being of the US being destroyed. Sorry my practical calculation got derailed by some very anal math geek terms, however my point stands this virus will kill 4% of 1% of the population.

The ability to work out very basic percentages accurately is not exactly 'Maths Geek'.

The virus so far has (not will) killed .04% of the population with all the mitigation measures in place.

a reply to: ScepticScot

Ah but here's where you go to far... population is not a static number nor is it linear... so applying a continuous death rate isn't what needs to be looked at here, as if it would continue to grow in percentage if left unchecked... that's not the case here, the range is 0.04% to 0.06% (I see where you're going it's easier to work with we were saying the same thing.) but population keeps growing regardless of COVID and we are obviously able to survive the virus as a whole. We are sorry for the deaths not only in the US, but across the globe too. We obviously wish they didn't occur, but continuing to perpetuate the lie that this is a danger to most people is where we need to take a step back and look at this objectively. This is not the danger we have been sold, it really is just another virus in a world full of many of them.

originally posted by: underpass61
I'm wondering if the draconian lockdown measures were actually an attempt to increase the death toll, since Sweden's no-lockdown approach is yielding practically the same numbers as the rest.

Sweden's approach wasn't "no-lockdown" but more of a voluntary lockdown and the Swedish people (some might say sheeple), for the most part, did as they were instructed by the guidelines without the need to be forced to do so.

Still...Sweden didn’t impose a lockdown, but its economy is just as bad as its neighbors.

Of course you will find other articles which provide different numbers. So, numbers don't lie?

Seems like the modern approach to pacify the masses is to provide info to feed people's bias and them let them vent on the interwebz.

originally posted by: av8r007
a reply to: ScepticScot

Ah but here's where you go to far... population is not a static number nor is it linear... so applying a continuous death rate isn't what needs to be looked at here, as if it would continue to grow in percentage if left unchecked... that's not the case here, the range is 0.04% to 0.06% (I see where you're going it's easier to work with we were saying the same thing.) but population keeps growing regardless of COVID and we are obviously able to survive the virus as a whole. We are sorry for the deaths not only in the US, but across the globe too. We obviously wish they didn't occur, but continuing to perpetuate the lie that this is a danger to most people is where we need to take a step back and look at this objectively. This is not the danger we have been sold, it really is just another virus in a world full of many of them.

You measure per capita within a set time period.

While you wouldn't include every deaths from road accidents since car were invented and divide by current population you equally wouldn't the 1950 number of deaths by current population.

Population changes slowly enough (in most ceases) to make it a usual denominator to work out the impact.

If the mitigation measures weren't in place then the number of deaths would almost certainly be much higher.

The virus isn't deadly or even particularly severe to most people. However there is no way to selectively apply the mitigation measures

I do wish I could go back and edit my percentages (too late now mods if you're there take off two zeros for me), but I feel like showing the 0.0004 shows the work whereas saying it as .04% makes it seem larger than .0004 which is what it really is.... 4% of 1%

a reply to: av8r007

Good thread op with the type of thread that hooked me to this site back in the day

USA: 144,000 deaths / 331,000,000 population = 0.0004%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sad I have to explain this.

Total Pop : 331, 000, 000

Total Deaths : 147, 000

TOTAL CURRENTLY KNOWN INFECTED.
4,170,000.

331,000,000, the total population has NOT been exposed to the virus yet.

4 Million infected / 147,000 dead = 3-4% fatality rate. (3.7%ish technically but I like to round)

The infected population is only 4 million out of 331 million. So how big of a threat we have? Let us extrapolate from the 4 million who are/were infected. Assuming every person was infected of the entire population and the current fatality rate of 3-4% you would have on the low end...9, 930, 000, on the high end, 13, 240, 000.

Oh yeah...for every one person who dies from it, 20 more are hospitalized and half of those will suffer permanent damage. So take those totals and multiply. Consider the economic toll this will do to the survivors as well. This is of course assuming the virus doesn't mutate, which the more of the population it goes through the more likely this will happen. Don't forget that black death only had a 5% fatality rate, then when it hit certain vulnerable populations/groups they suffered a 90%+ fatality rate.

So for every 100 infected, 20 will be hospitalized and one will die.
This virus is no joke, and it will get worst.

*disclosure* I was hired to do some programming in an attempt to adapt an MRI machine to detect the virus. (This failed miserably). I had to crunch alot of numbers, learn alot of stats, and seen enough of the brutal realities of this disease to safely say we are dealing with a borderline plague, one or two solid mutations and this virus will be Black Death 2.0.

Some countries did a complete shutdown and literally wiped the virus out of their population (New Zealand I believe is a prime example). If we don't figure a way to stop this the devastation will be unbelievable.

My prediction is over 250,000 dead by the end of the year, and 2 million the end of next year. Given the current political climate I'm not certain any action can be taken to stop this. If we don't see widespread adoptions of masks, social distancing, etc. the numbers will likely drift much higher. America is simply not built to handle this kind of threat.

Anyway hope that clears some numbers up, and hope everyone stays safe. Let us all do our homework about how dangerous the virus is before we spread numbers that are true (Corona has only killed .0004% of the population!) but inaccurate, instead of the more accurate (Corona kills 3-4% of all the population that it infects, hospitalizes 20%, and creates permanent damage in 10%). I don't have time to crunch every number for everyone here so please do your own diligence.

*Notes: Statistically if everyone was exposed to it repeatedly I only believe around 50-80% of the population could be infected so the above total numbers require some downward adjustments. Also, making a vaccine is easy...making one that doesn't kill the patient is difficult, this will likely take a couple years to accomplish.

a reply to: CobaltCPD

Using official numbers is misleading though. And while those are absolutely what is being reported, there are mounds of data overlooked in favor of a pragmatic mitigation of the spread. Scare everyone.

Here is the baseline estimate for number of New Yorkers with antibodies.

www.cnbc.com...

With a clinic in Queens seeing 68% antibody rates

amp.cnn.com...

New York City alone has or had at least 2.2 million people infected with Coronavirus, that is half the "official" nationwide total.

When considering "official" cases it is correct, even at 25% infection rate (the baseline estimate) and 22k deaths in NY City, and even throwing in on all undetermined deaths, 28k, you still have a MAXIMUM rate of 1.27%.

Official numbers mislead. I am leaning more towards the clinic in Queens with herd immunity numbers.

That said, it's still a deadly pathogen to the elderly and infirm. Though, I wonder how much of the official 3-4% is an intentional scare tactic, where reporting New York (in some estimations) below 1% would not strike as much fear, and people would not take it as seriously.

Especially when New York is officially listed at around 440,000 thousand cases and 32,000 deaths. People might read that and think it kills almost 8%, and everyone knows that is not true.

originally posted by: av8r007
a reply to: panoz77

Wrong! That's not what we are calculating... 0.06 = 6%. That would mean that 19,680,000 people died. That's just incorrect.

328,000,000 = 100%
3,280,000 = 1%
144,000 = 0.0004%

0.06 does equal 6%, just as 0.0006 equals 0.06%.

originally posted by: av8r007
a reply to: olaru12

Cognitive dissonance... the idea is so horrifying that we've been lied to on this scale that you are attempting to reject reality. Seriously

Seriously...I have a difficult time believing anything from a person that supports a known liar that bases his tweets on which way the political wind blows. I remember when trump called covid19 a hoax, now the story has changed.

www.theatlantic.com...



It's to easy for them to let their ideology get in the way of the truth and their common sense and skew the numbers to fit their political agenda.

It's about the data source....garbage in/garbage out. But it's not about the numbers anyway.... it's about the obvious political agenda..Cognitive dissonance indeed!!

btw, I was never in favor of shutting the country down. My retail shop is out of business never to recover but blessed to have options that many employees don't have.

a reply to: Degradation33

Yeah, I try and leave room for a certain amount of deviation.

A fully infected population of 331,000,000 with the 1.37% fatality rate is over 4 million dead.

4 million dead.
80 million hospitalized.
40 million with permanent damage.
Even the modest numbers are staggeringly large.

Which is the apparent problem. Don't forget getting medical treatment in New York may differ in quality from other parts of the country, contributing to variations in fatality rates.

Alot of people are trying to blow this threat off like it doesn't exist. I hope people can understand how big these numbers really are. That said I suspect that most of this board are people who do not live in cities, hence a skewed view.

*note : I doubt a population could actually achieve more than 80% infection rate due to genetic variance of the individuals. Regardless, the medical/death/societal toll is still enormous. Also, imagine what happens as it spreads into vulnerable populations such as Florida's elderly population. This is gonna get worst. Alot worst.

originally posted by: research100
also saw some babies are getting it and dying

100% BS without evidence...

So I can examine the evidence and call out the BS.

Maybe, just maybe, there have been one or two that died because they were extremely immuno-compromised already and any opportunistic bug would have killed them. Sad, but still nothing to shut the country down or close the schools or require children to wear stupid masks while at school over.

a reply to: av8r007
The numbers do not matter it is now Trumps fault.

a reply to: CobaltCPD

Even slightly less than 1% blows Influenza A out of the water. I have actually had it. Like many in Los Angeles and Southern California. And I was calling it The SARS and referencing South Park up until I got it.

Never regretted smoking more until I did. While I wasn't bad enough to need hospitalization, it still made walking hurt and cause slight shortness of breath, at 37 years old. Not fun.

This is a new pathogen with no herd immunity, and that's where it is heading in the worst case scenario. So even say, 70% of The United States (@ 0.9%) still amounts to over 2.1 million deaths. The equivalent of the entire Metropolitan population of Austin, Texas will die from Coronavirus in the USA if ubiquitous herd immunity is reached. But that is an "if" situation. And I am getting sick of "if" situations.

I'm thinking around a quarter-million personally.

You dont hear about non-covid deaths, or get more optomistic estimations. The broader perspective is increasingly being omitted to raise the awareness that is more useful.

To defend my point, While the above likely scenario should be enough, there is IMO a purposeful "agenda" to overstate the mortality rate, and lock people in to a fear midset. I know, if I see 0.9% I am less concerned than if i went by the official death rates.

And also ignored that complete picture:

2020 deaths so far:

Deaths from all causes - 1,420,658
Deaths with pneumonia, influenza, or COVID-19* - 212,737
Pneumonia deaths** - 135,158
COVID-19 deaths*** - 126,647
Deaths with pneumonia and COVID-19** - 54,649
Influenza deaths^ - 6,539

Of course heart disease, cancer, diabetes dominate that list.

Discarding the comorbidity, Non-covid cases are about keeping up with Covid, and would in any year.

Mitigation could have also been mandating self-quarantine based on age. You take away all the elderly this has a negligible fatality rate. 55+ ordered to stay in. And the steps reopened places are doing now, instead of going for the CDC advised total shutdown throat. Hindsight, right?

But new pathogens, even less than 1% fatal ones, are always a threat, are for the duration of the pandemic, and then show up in minor resurgences thereafter.

No one has had it before now. So you don't get 12% of total population numbers like you do with Influenza A in the first wave.

I just feel the manner in which the health official are approaching this is partly agenda driven. Not to get too political but I can't be the only one who sees opportunists and objectivists using the pandemic and using high end estimations to manipulate opinion and prolong societal destabilization or lock down. Assuring, through loss of perspective and deceptive use of stats, that people won't brush it off, which people will do anyway.

Far be it from me to call it a Chinese, WHO, and/or lizard person conspiracy to destabilize the economy and reign in the bull market 1987-style, but even I wonder sometimes if this is a man-made pathogen for exactly that reason.

China did seem to stop it right away by locking people inside and disinfecting entire infected areas...

Or maybe I am just angry there is no Opening Day. Go Padres. Duck the Fodgers.

a reply to: jtma508

on this, I agree to a point. We have no idea. It's all new. but we all need to understand that finding a balance in all this will determine if we make it out or not. I think everyone is frustrated, and to add the unhealthy hatred of Trump in there for the election, and there just isn't much room for good dialog.

a reply to: Degradation33

I have enjoyed our civil and stats heavy conversation Degradation33.

The scary thing is we are not arguing whether people die, but simply how many. I do hope that this virus doesn't burn through 70%+ of the population to get a natural herd immunity going.

Also don't forget for every death their are around 9-10 people who will suffer permanent damage and another 10 requiring hospitalization. The toll is beyond death. Our system just isn't built for this kinda pandemic, wait till the medical bankruptcies start seriously piling up.

Yeah, the man-made conspiracy theories are interesting, particular that it was unleashed to shut down the Hong Kong protests. I don't actually believe it but that theory makes so much sense I'm surprised it isn't brought up on the board more. (If any government had the ability to manufacture something like this they would be multiple decades ahead of where medical technology is today, basicall we all screwed lol). Don't know if u have seen the Chinese videos, government has white trucks with large metal housing on the back, someone tests positive they literally throw them in, and immediately take them to a quarantine zone.

Their are always opportunist. This just seems like a fact of life lol.

a reply to: av8r007 NAZIS Give Me Your Papers COVID VACCINE ID 19 Times since WW2 U been Scammed Get It

Certification of Vaccination Identification NAZIS Give me your Papers Travel Papers

a reply to: av8r007

I'm just going to fix your math (arithmetic):

USA: 144,000 deaths / 331,000,000 population = 0.0004%
Mexico: 41,908 deaths / 128,930,000 population = 0.0003%
UK: 45,554 deaths / 67,890,000 population = 0.0006%
Spain: 28,429 deaths / 46,750,000 population = 0.0006%
Italy: 35,092 / 60,460,000 population = 0.0005%

Percentage rates derived from the above numbers:

144,000 divided by 311,000,000 = .00043504531 or roughly .04%
41,908 divided by 128,930,000 = .00032504459 or roughly .03%
45,554 divided by 67,890,000 = .0006709972 or roughly .06%

Have to convert the decimal equivalents to actual percentage.

originally posted by: FyreByrd
a reply to: av8r007

I'm just going to fix your math (arithmetic):

Percentage rates derived from the above numbers:

144,000 divided by 311,000,000 = .00043504531 or roughly .04%
41,908 divided by 128,930,000 = .00032504459 or roughly .03%
45,554 divided by 67,890,000 = .0006709972 or roughly .06%

Have to convert the decimal equivalents to actual percentage.

I saw the bad maths, but the exasperation nevertheless remains.

In another thread, you said you would not want be sent home from hospital to die (if such a scenario, perish the thought, arose with Covid) in case you would potentially "kill people". Which is an understandable concern, but are you unconsciously doing yourself and others an injustice?

Obviously high-risk people at home would take precautions, as in any pandemic. Otherwise, if they're in the 99.6% of the USA population who are NOT at risk of death from Covid, they may as well never cross a public road since the odds of death there are far, far higher than 0.04% (ie 0.97%)

My wife and I caught Covid back in February (our town was the 'Ground Zero' for Covid, so inevitable really), although I thought it was a mild cold. At least it didn't last as long as a cold, but we were in the equivalent 99.6% of the UK, although outside the 80% who are asymptomatic.

Statistics are both the instigator of irrational fears, AND the solution to such fears if looked at logically. Unfortunately, calm logic and rationale has long since flown away in the world's first truly media-interconnected pandemic, thanks to a predictably demented press and twitchy, knee-jerk politicians.

But don't worry - I'm probably a "heartless ghoul" for questioning the narrative. I used to be angry, but now I just laugh at the insanity, the shocking unquestioning obedience of the hordes, and how QUICKLY such people surrendered. But that's for future historians to mull over.

Speaking of which, I chuckled long and hard today at Spain's latest Covid rules where the use of face-coverings outside one's home is compulsory, but one of the exceptions is if you happen to play a wind instrument...

Remember everybody: always carry a clarinet, flute, trumpet or trombone!



We may as well add to the hot air.


Phage will probably wander into the thread now...



"You heartless, murdering BASTARD!!!"