Data Will Expose the Covid Conspiracy

Here's a thoughtful article to help those who actually want to start down the data path:

www.statnews.com...

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed. We don’t know if we are failing to capture infections by a factor of three or 300. Three months after the outbreak emerged, most countries, including the U.S., lack the ability to test a large number of people and no countries have reliable data on the prevalence of the virus in a representative random sample of the general population.

This evidence fiasco creates tremendous uncertainty about the risk of dying from Covid-19. Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless. Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%). It is also possible that some of the passengers who were infected might die later, and that tourists may have different frequencies of chronic diseases — a risk factor for worse outcomes with SARS-CoV-2 infection — than the general population. Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

Makes me wonder why so many folks here and elsewhere are afraid to question the reality of this situation by asking for the real, underlying data with all supporting methodologies and calculations.

Then people could, in a truly informed way, decide how freaked out they need to be. Not freak out because someone told them to freak out.

Mass hysteria indeed.

I should have noted this in my OP... but some of you may have wondered why I (or others) are such vociferous opponents to how this is being handled/what's really going on.

Here's my why:

1. A huge chunk of The Western World is currently under a stay at home order.
2. 3.5mm Americans went unemployed virtually overnight.
3. Small businesses are decimated.
4. Service and Transportation industries are crushed.
5. "Elective" surgeries largely postponed.

The list goes on...

If all of that is going to happen, then I need to see some exceptionally clean, unredacted, globally standardized, raw, reliable and unbiased data that unequivocally supports those efforts.

We don't have that.

And based on what we're doing globally, this better be the biggest BFD of all BFDs that have ever been a BFD.

And the data says it isn't that.... given as of the time of this writing per the link below both of these data points are true:

Population Count Infected Count Deceased % of Pop Infected % of Pop Deceased
USA 331002651.00 104277 1704 0.0315034% 0.00051480%
World 7800000000.00 617288 28377 0.0079139% 0.00036381%

data sources:
www.worldometers.info...
www.worldometers.info...
www.worldometers.info...

When 33x the number of people went unemployed over the span of a few weeks than are actually deemed "infected" with the virus and 2053x the number of people who have died from the disease are unemployed in the US alone - you're darned right we need to be digging in and asking a whole boat load of questions.

And the data doesn't support what we're doing.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

I go by what first responders are saying and the capacity they say they have and the number of cases they are expecting to see based on their years of experience.

Here is what this looks like:


That looks like something I dont want to happen to my city. The numbers were the same for Spain and Italy until they got overwhelmed and had to learn more about this virus on the fly and adjust their predictions and their response.

originally posted by: HelloboysImbackguy
a reply to: EnigmaChaser
I go by what first responders are saying and the capacity they say they have and the expected cases they are expecting to see based on their years of experience.
Here is what this looks like:

That looks like something I dont want to happen to my city. The numbers were the same for Spain and Italy until they got overwhelmed and had to learn more about this virus on the fly and adjust their predictions and their response.

Do you have any scale on:

1. how busy the hospital is traditionally
2. if all of those people actually have covid confirmed cases.
3. when the videos was taken.
4. Other articles written by or videos published by the outfit in question to see where they are coming from.

More questions could and should be asked. Instead you posted a scary video.

You probably think the media isn't overblowing this - which is your right to think that way.

I'd rather think for myself - and if you think you need to be a "first responder" to be able to run data you're incorrect.

Show me fear mongering videos all you want - doesn't change my stance.

a reply to: TheLead

This is simply a NWO plot,

There's no such thing as OWN ... I mean NWO!

(SARC)

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

So, when your data turns out to be incorrect and the first responders were right, then what?

You'll fade back and apologise for nothing.

You speak as an authority and all you're doing is guessing. I still think you're wrong. This will cause mass devastation; more damage to the economy. Your stats could be utterly bogus. First responders have no motive to lie, leaked videos show devastation after devastation.

Iran could even use this as a pretext to attack America in a time of mass weakness. I speak to people from healthcare in the UK and they are bluntly telling me that, even though the 'confirmed' cases are only reported 77 where I live, their wards are already flooded and they cant cope. They're already having to decide who gets treatment and who doesn't. Bear in mind, that's 77 people in an area with 4 hospitals.

Yeah, I don't trust the statistics at all, statistics are always balls, and it's always 20/20 hindsight.

a reply to: Joneselius

So the nobel prize winner from Stanford has no idea what he's talking about? Entirely discounting observable information is a dangerous path to go down - I really wouldn't encourage anyone to ride through life on the basis of hearsay.

You're right though, we can kick each other in the shorts all day long. Factually, only time will tell.

That said, I'll rely on things that aren't hysterical to base my decisions on. Too much wolf has been cried not to - and I promise you fact-based your overlords rely on data significantly to continue to be your overlords. We already have impact like this is a world-ending virus when considering peoples lives and the global economy - your version of reality is already playing out and baked in to most assumptions.

I'm willing to operate under the assumption that those of us who scaled this properly and based decisions not on hype but what we can observe and calculate stand to be much better of than those who don't do that - ultimately.

a reply to: Joneselius

To my point earlier about emotional commentary - your "I'll bet you a year's worth of wages comment..." was just that - emotional BS bar talk. But, I'll give you some solace that my money is where my mouth is....

Had 50% of my portfolio in 2 and 3x leveraged S&P and NASDAQ ETFs last week (carried over from the Friday prior) before selling out around noon on Friday - still ~30% equitized in S&P - but assumed traders would wouldn't want to be long over the weekend given we don't know what news would come out. Also plowed a chunk into 3x leverage oil ETF late in the day on Friday and a few other energy related positions that are beat to snot with oil being cheaper than basically ever in modern history - I took a hit on that and will probably get crushed a bit more but that's a long-term play - give me $50/barrel oil and that will be a real, real profitable trade.

Many people see fear, others see opportunity - why? - data. Headlines wouldn't have led to a productive week on the investment front - and most people are emotional and buy the headlines - which is why many folks got some serious whiplash last week after making emotional decisions to sell out. They can thank their emotions and buying the headlines for that...

If I'm right, I'd still buy you beers despite our disagreement here until you can't walk If I'm wrong, I'll own that too, still buy you beers and you can spike the football over my wrongness.

There's no value in being stubbornly wrong or believing too strongly in "beliefs"... just compounds your mistakes.

Regardless of who's right now - we all want a positive outcome. We're just approaching it differently.

originally posted by: TheLead
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

They updated the symptoms to include, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Im about 90% thats what i had in late December leading into the New Year. There are a lot that have already came to that conclusion much more will with these syptoms added. It was what was throwing me off. I had a fever for about 4 days, no sense of taste and couldn't keep even water down.

Ya know, now that you mention it, I had a pretty nasty something right after Christmas, including shortness of breath.

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: TheLead
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

They updated the symptoms to include, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Im about 90% thats what i had in late December leading into the New Year. There are a lot that have already came to that conclusion much more will with these syptoms added. It was what was throwing me off. I had a fever for about 4 days, no sense of taste and couldn't keep even water down.

Ya know, now that you mention it, I had a pretty nasty something right after Christmas, including shortness of breath.

I hope you have recovered and are back to being well!

TheLead:

They updated the symptoms to include, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Im about 90% thats what i had in late December leading into the New Year. There are a lot that have already came to that conclusion much more will with these syptoms added. It was what was throwing me off. I had a fever for about 4 days, no sense of taste and couldn't keep even water down.

Yep. Me too. Went for a drink around Manchester UK one Friday evening in Late November. On the following Sunday evening I quite suddenly sat up in bed and projected a stream of vomit in the dark (talk about Exorcist!). I then had to rush to the loo and suffered the most water-riven diarrhea blast in my life. Was off work for a week. Couldn't keep anything down, or stay off the loo seat. Thought I had food poisoning or the Norovirus?

Now, here, self-isolated I feel I am coming down with something that feels like a dry head cold. A mild temperature and no cough.

originally posted by: EnigmaChaser

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: TheLead
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

They updated the symptoms to include, nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea. Im about 90% thats what i had in late December leading into the New Year. There are a lot that have already came to that conclusion much more will with these syptoms added. It was what was throwing me off. I had a fever for about 4 days, no sense of taste and couldn't keep even water down.

Ya know, now that you mention it, I had a pretty nasty something right after Christmas, including shortness of breath.

I hope you have recovered and are back to being well!

I'm fine, thanks. Was only sick for a few days. Was pretty nasty, but I've had worse.

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Change the subject slightly, Suppose Yellowstone were to - God forbid - blow, surely their had been a sort of Drill as to how such would be handled ? Imagining the ash pumped from that, Respiratory rescue equipment would have been available no ?

Had such been the cause of panic, then surely the UK too would have to be prepared for it ?

originally posted by: steaming
a reply to: EnigmaChaser

Change the subject slightly, Suppose Yellowstone were to - God forbid - blow, surely their had been a sort of Drill as to how such would be handled ? Imagining the ash pumped from that, Respiratory rescue equipment would have been available no ?

Had such been the cause of panic, then surely the UK too would have to be prepared for it ?

Based on our response to this, I doubt any country is prepared for that.

Or this:
www.britannica.com...

originally posted by: face23785

originally posted by: steaming
a reply to: EnigmaChaser
Change the subject slightly, Suppose Yellowstone were to - God forbid - blow, surely their had been a sort of Drill as to how such would be handled ? Imagining the ash pumped from that, Respiratory rescue equipment would have been available no ?
Had such been the cause of panic, then surely the UK too would have to be prepared for it ?

Based on our response to this, I doubt any country is prepared for that.

Lets take one massive issue at a time if we can, gents

a reply to: EnigmaChaser

So far they have wrecked economies, moved closer to full marshal law, built hospitals for thousands yet to get sick. Locked up half the worlds population in their place of residence. Why if this is a nothing burger? The reality is that its got to be this way to pull back the full reality of this thing, one should ask are these measures going to be enough.? because to keep supplies lines open people with mild illness will still be working and spreading. This is the end of an age now, even if it disappeared tomorrow, the whole place will still be running a War type command economy. With rationing waiting in the wings.
The point being they probably know more about this virus than we do, so have taken action accordingly. I would guess getting infected a second time by a slightly different strain is a probability.

In Canada it seems to be the panic that is putting strain on the medical system.

In British Columbia up until recently, most people are trying to receive tests because they have been in contact with someone from overseas and they couldn't go back to work without results. If you show any symptoms of illness your sent home.

We have around 900 cases, 16 deaths with about 3M people.

a reply to: MALBOSIA

In Canada it seems to be the panic that is putting strain on the medical system

So, where is the stress on the medical system?

If you show any symptoms of illness your sent home.

a reply to: Phage

At first it was trying to get a note that you dont have it, so you can go back to work, because you had been in contact with someone overseas in the last 14 days.

Now it is because people are legitimately concerned their symptoms are COVID-19. It is causing line ups.