Some quick math makes the coronavirus look like a complete non-issue

originally posted by: Nyiah

And NOBODY bothered scolding anyone for passing too close to each other, or the parents for letting kids on the playground equipment.

partially why lowering the curve was never going to work.. hygiene practices dont change overnight..

and then there are the denialists and the asshats that deliberately spread it.. choose to do nothing and your countries medical system may breakdown..

who is going to help you if you have a heart attack or stroke when your ICU's are filled by covid-19 patients?

a reply to: trollz

You are judging a virus while it is in the early stages possibly the middle. Some countries are only entering what is believed to be the peak of the virus but you're doing the maths. The one important thing other than waiting until it has been dealt with to work out whether people are overreacting (although morons buying bulk toilet paper is ridiculous) is it isn't the number of people it is killing that is scaring people and some scientists but how fast it can spread, how it can be transferred excluding the idiot on social media claiming it can be spread by looking at someone even from across the room (stupid and non true). It has nothing to do with the number of deaths yet, why not wait until it has passed before proclaiming people are overreacting.

a reply to: Ohanka

He was busy watching himself being impeached on tv. No time for any bugs in China.

agreed...

It’s been years sense I posted on this site, but I felt the need to say something tonight. So after years, I am back.

Today we are fasting an epidemic, but not one of reality, but one of hype. I am talking about none other the covid-19 (a.k.a coronavirus). I live in Houston Texas, and for the last few days the amount of fear over this virus has spread to...well to craziness. Today there was a press conference with the mayor to decide rather or not to put the city into a “stay-at-home” orders. Luckily today the answer was they will wait a few days and see.

Though on the surface a “stay at home order” may seem understandable, when you look that the actual numbers, it’s more like what in the hell are people thinking.

The entire STATE of Texas has a population of 28.7 million, as of date 9 have passed away from Covid-19…Not 9000, not 900, not 90….but 9! They are considering closing a city for 9 people in the whole state.

Why, because the CDC is claiming 2% to 3% death rate on this virus…This number is complete bull# and simple math can figure this out. I will prove it to you.

Currently as of tonight per Worldometer.com (they update daily), Texas has 809 confirmed cases, and 9 deaths. So to find the average of death you divide the deaths by the number of cases. 9 / 809 = .011 (multiply by 100 to get parentage) 1%. This seem high but less then CDCs numbers….well doing some basic math, this number drops even lower.

Its predicted that many people are running fevers in the US, but don’t go the doctor/hospital unless the case is serious. Current estimates are about only one in three people actually go to the doctor for a fever. This means 2 out of 3 are simply not going, and in case the actual number of people with the virus could be three time higher than the previous mentioned 809 number (or 2,427 case in Texas). In which case the death rate goes way down. 9 / 2427 = .0037 (a 0.4% death rate)….Or a 99.6% survival rate.

This is very simple math!

The other day an article from Stanford University came out called ‘A fiasco in the making”, ready it! As Stanford is agreeing with what I just said.

Additionally, you can go to same site mentioned above “wordometer.com” and look at Germany’s numbers. Germany has 29,056 confirmed cases, but only 123 deaths which is a 99.6 survival rate…hummm….same number I calculate above.

So why is the USA and other country got different rates than Germany, Stanford, and my amateur math… Sad to say, but the Germans is the only country testing right.

Currently in the US if you are NOT running a fever and go to the hospital you will likely not be tested for Covid-19. They are limited the test to people running a fever. This is nuts, as many people with this virus will run a fever for only a day or two, or maybe not feel ill at all., thus overlooking a bunch of potential Covid-19 sufferer.s So how to measure that? Well you can’t , the only people being tested in the US are those with server cases...And when you only look at bad cases, of course the outcome is going to look bad.

Germany is not doing that, the Germans are testing about 160,000 people a week, and because they are testing so many more, they are finding a lot more of mild cases. This is how they came to 99.6% survival rate. The Germans are testing more and finding better numbers, where in the US we are cherry picking out numbers by not testing anybody not running a fever. So surprise, there is probably about 3 times as many case falling off the radar in the US, leaving with numbers that seem crazy!


The real numbers don’t lie, and don’t add up to the hype!!!!

originally posted by: Kakamega
a reply to: trollz

You have done the wrong sum.

Try this sum:

3,407 as a percentage of 41,035

= 8.302668453758987 %.

That means over 8% of people who have caught it WILL DIE if Italy's data is repeated elsewhere. That is 8 people in every 100. This is staggering.

If the Covid-19 Virus infected all human beings, 7,530,000,000, then 0.62519093456805 billion people WILL DIE!

Actually it’s 12 in every 100 according to your math. Now that is more staggering.

a reply to: Eben51

Is this the one?

In the United Kingdom, things have trended steadily worse, however.

The U.K. death rate is now up to a staggering 5.3%, amongst those who contract the virus. Of those who end up in a U.K. hospital 71% never come home again!

This is so sad!: www.worldometers.info...

originally posted by: carewemust
In the United Kingdom, things have trended steadily worse, however.

The U.K. death rate is now up to a staggering 5.3%, amongst those who contract the virus. Of those who end up in a U.K. hospital 71% never come home again!

This is so sad!: www.worldometers.info...

(sigh)..... a 5.3% death rate, means a 94.7% survival rate (so 71% never coming home, is way way way off).....but again, these countries are cherry picking their numbers by not testing people without fevers....look at Germany they are the ONLY country testing everybody and have a 0.4% death rate, or 99.6% survival rate.

p reply to: Serdgiam
if you like that post, post it as a new thread...I can't as I am new here, and can only reply till I hit 20 plus post.

a reply to: Eben51
Mild cases are probably not being hospitalized so those who do end up in the Serious or Critical group do have bad odds of coming home.

Don't get me wrong, that huge group with mild symptoms makes a big difference in the CFR, but that wasn't what they were talking about was it?

originally posted by: Eben51

originally posted by: carewemust
In the United Kingdom, things have trended steadily worse, however.

The U.K. death rate is now up to a staggering 5.3%, amongst those who contract the virus. Of those who end up in a U.K. hospital 71% never come home again!

This is so sad!: www.worldometers.info...

(sigh)..... a 5.3% death rate, means a 94.7% survival rate (so 71% never coming home, is way way way off).....but again, these countries are cherry picking their numbers by not testing people without fevers....look at Germany they are the ONLY country testing everybody and have a 0.4% death rate, or 99.6% survival rate.

In the United Kingdom, things have trended steadily worse, however.

The U.K. death rate is now up to a staggering 5.3%, amongst those who contract the virus. Of those who end up in a U.K. hospital, 71% never come home again.

This is so sad!: www.worldometers.info...

a reply to: daskakik

When we only look at serious or critical case, of course the numbers look bad, but if you look at as whole wit both critical and minor cases the numbers change drastically.

Google these...
"Scottish maths expert revals your chances of catching coronavirus"
"Covid-19 Deaths in Germany far Below Rates in Other countries"
"A fiasco in the making? as the coronavirus pandemic takes hold"

there are a few professionals saying the same as me, but they being drowning out media hype.

a reply to: UKTruth

The mortality in the US is currently at 1.2% and that's only counting the people who took the test. If you add all the people who will get the drive through test, it will be dramatically lower that that.

a reply to: Eben51

That is what I said and I pointed out that the post you replied to was talking about a specific group within those who may become infected.

Still, one of the factors that someone pointed out in another thread is the number of beds available and the occupancy. Germany has 8 per 1000. Italy 3.18. The UK has 2.54 and the US has around 2.77.

That is why "flatten the curve" has become the buzz phrase.

Also, since we are doing maths, if only 10% of the US population is infected, at 5.3% mortality rate that is still over 1.5M dead americans.

a reply to: carewemust

I really don't mean to sound rude, but I think your math is way off on how percentages work.
All percentages have to total to a 100%. If you say 71% of people didn't make it home that means 29% did make it home. But that's not what you said, you said the death rate is 5.3%, that math is 100% - 5.3% = 94.7% ... meaning that 94.7% of people did not die. What, I am saying this number is not accurate, because the testing is only of people of serous cases and overlooking mild cases. Putting in BOLD in that 71% people never came home doesn't make you math right, it doesn't even work with worldometer numbers.

originally posted by: Eben51
a reply to: carewemust

I really don't mean to sound rude, but I think your math is way off on how percentages work.
All percentages have to total to a 100%. If you say 71% of people didn't make it home that means 29% did make it home. But that's not what you said, you said the death rate is 5.3%, that math is 100% - 5.3% = 94.7% ... meaning that 94.7% of people did not die. What, I am saying this number is not accurate, because the testing is only of people of serous cases and overlooking mild cases. Putting in BOLD in that 71% people never came home doesn't make you math right, it doesn't even work with worldometer numbers.

What CWM is saying is, "of the people who end up in the hospital" not of the people infected and recover at home. If it is bad enough you have to go in, your chances are poor.

originally posted by: Eben51
What, I am saying this number is not accurate, because the testing is only of people of serous cases and overlooking mild cases.

This isn't true, people who have been around a positive case are tested even if they don't show any symptoms. You can't know if they will end up in the serious group or not.

a reply to: daskakik

As for the number of beds per a country, I didn't work those numbers. What numbers I worked was the survival rates and rate doesn't add up to 5.3% but 0.4%...and that only if you contact it. Your chance of contacting it are pretty slim. I believe it's the same odds of rolling a six on a dice, nine time in a roll.

Its all in the articals I ask you to read....

anyway I am going to bed....night yall

a reply to: Eben51
The number of beds available has to do with people in critical condition being given a chance to pull through instead of just being given up on, which would increase the number of deaths.

Even with your numbers, the odds of rolling a 6 with one die is 16.67%. If we say that the population of the US is 300M that is 50M. If the death rate is 0.4%

50M x 0.4% = 2M dead americans.

That is a lot of people, no matter how you slice it.

a reply to: trollz

This virus is being used as a tool to implement world government regulations. There is little more to add I think...