Some quick math makes the coronavirus look like a complete non-issue

a reply to: trollz

Hmmm...


Let's go with some numbers.

30K

50K

100K

200K

How much is your bill if you are one of the 18%-20% that requires hospitalization for this?

There are many more things to consider besides just Death here.

20-30% Lung reduction - wonderful crippling disability gift there.

Kidney damage.... Joy.

I understand where you're coming from and there are times that I feel the reaction and panic over this virus is worse than the virus itself. After all, how many people worldwide caught Covid-19 (before it became a #storm on the media) and recovered from it, thinking it was just a bad cold, or seasonal flu? The fact is, we don't know of these numbers and if we did, then the fatality rate for this virus would be significantly lower than the numbers that are being reported.

However, the total number of COVID-19 cases is not known. When media outlets claim to report the ‘number of cases’ they are not being precise and omit to say that it is the number of confirmed cases they speak about. The total number of cases is not known, not by us at Our World in Data, nor by any other research, governmental or reporting institution.

ourworldindata.org...

However, Covid-19 is a serious virus, not just because of the number of deaths, but because of something that many people (including myself) overlook. Covid-19's RO number is said to be between 2 and 2.5. In retrospect, the seasonal flu's RO number is said to be 1.3. Since Covid-19 is more contagious than the seasonal flu, more people will become infected, which will result in more sickness, especially among the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions. This is why this virus could easily overwhelm our health care system, resulting in more deaths. We simply do not have the resources to treat a huge number of patients. Matter of fact, there are some counties in America that have no intensive care beds.

This is why social distancing and "sheltering at home" for 2 to 4 weeks is important...to lower the rate of infection, so that our health care system can successfully treat those patients that end up with serious pneumonia.

a reply to: choos

Thanks. You're correct.

1st Responder/EMT

a reply to: Necrobile

Not entirely true.

Most people get through it fine. That's why it's so hard to process. For almost all of us, this will be nothing terribly severe, just a nasty cold to flu-like illness.

But for about 20% of us who get it, it turns into the pneumonia form, and that needs medical care. For those of us who get that ... it's hell on wheels to get over no matter your age. And that form needs medical care and support.

For a small percentage of those who develop pneumonia, the case goes critical, and then you're really in trouble. You have a higher chance of this as you age with the attendant higher chances of death.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

It's interesting. They did a statistical analysis in a paper recently. They discovered that in China about 86% of the cases were flying undetected leading to the crisis that started all the lockdowns there.

They also posit that in milder cases, it's less contagious than in severe ones, but that has yet to be tested in any substantial sense. However, numerically, the mild cases still do the job because there are so many of them.

a reply to: ketsuko

Aye, I understand that. I am being as cautious as I can, though, because of multiple factors. I'm 40 years old and my lung capacity isn't the best, so I'm worried that even though I'd survive the illness, it would affect me badly in the long run. Add to that what info said about the hospital bill, and yikes, I'd rather be safe than sorry.

I could actually surprise myself and fight this off like the majority, but it could also knock me through the ringer. I'm not a betting man, so I'm trying to play it safe.

a reply to: Necrobile

Oh, I understand if you have concerns due to personal issues - underlying medical. That's perfectly understandable. We were supposed to be out at my folks' today helping them move furniture, but my dad is in his 70s and has congestive heart failure. Even though we're all apparently healthy ... well, we felt the furniture could wait for better times.

originally posted by: choos

originally posted by: trollz

So, can someone tell me again why we're panicking and shutting everything down?

because it has the potential to overwhelm the medical system.. imagine if you needed emergency treatment due to an accident.. you need intensive care.. but there are none..

what if you had a stroke completely unrelated to the virus and needed an ICU bed, but there are none..

Some people are only seeing one side of this potentially infinite n-gon. They are fixated on a few statistics, while the possibility of it are unknown. They ignore things such as what you have said, in favour of their own self important opinions, which do not help the person standing next to them, nor the society in which they parade around freely, being a sort of grim reaper in their own way.

We can hope they are right.. but if hopes were truths by their very nature, we'd never have to hope for them.

Personally, I'll just watch this.. if nothing else, it has been a mirror that even medusa is forced to stare into.

And if it is something? Won't have many of the "It's just a flu!" people left to be boring all day, with.

originally posted by: oriondc

originally posted by: Imhere
There’s a few reasons.

One is slow down the rate of cases and don’t overwhelm the hospitals with a big portion of the population not getting it at once. As it’s highly contagious.

There's no need to lock down the world to prevent overwhelming hospitals. Good handwashing techniques and social distancing (without quarantining entire states, countries) can accomplish this.

But combine that good advice with the people who say there is nothing to worry about, ignore proper sanitisation, and completely forgo the social distancing, and you have a problem.

They've had to shut down Bondi beach, because hordes of people were ignoring all the recommendations, and as such, potentiating the situation.

www.abc.net.au...

Once again, it's not so much the virus - it can be controlled to a manageable degree, IF people, individuals, all follow the same advice.. But it's the nature of humanity in general. The "I'm not feeling it, so bugger what they say." mentality.

Selfishness. And, well, it's time out for the children, I guess. Which then reveals just how constrained we really are. Both in our ability to be self sufficient and survive without basic hygiene and without someone else to provide it to us, or the ability to sustain ourselves without a store to give us pre packaged food, toiletries and other things that are BASIC HUMAN REQUIREMENTS..And moreso - just how quick the gates shut, to keep the flock under control...

We most likely will survive, but be forever changed, and even as things return to a sort of status quo, that memory shall remain.. and next time, human nature will have that memory, and be even more spooked, at least in my opinion.

Why this denial of the disease?
Every day I get on here and see threads basically saying don't pay attention to the news this is nothing.
Why? Why are you guys denying this pandemic?

I just don't get it.

And if you think I can't tell that it's completely political you are wrong. That's as obvious as the nose on Mel Brooks face.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
And if you think I can't tell that it's completely political you are wrong. That's as obvious as the nose on Mel Brooks face.

They deny it because they know better. They survived the flu and didn't die in a car accident last year, so..


"Stahp, dere is notink to vorry about, now show me your papers."

ahhaha Mel Brooks Nose..

a reply to: trollz

Looks like you got a thread full of people that still buy the propaganda....

Most the deaths were from a major pre existing disease — not the coronavirus.

a reply to: shawmanfromny

One case in the U.S. on February 3rd.
almost 20K today and over two hundred dead in a month and a half.

Yeah can't wait to see what September looks like.

a reply to: ApacheShark

Because all that equipment that went to, or was enroute to Europe for a major multinational exercise had to come home. And once it arrived in the ports it had to be shipped to their home locations. That means trains. And the units were from multiple states. There will be more as it returns.

a reply to: ketsuko

Some get through it fine others get pretty flippin
sick.
And still others die.
But hey don't over react or anything cuz it might save a life.

You don't need a livelihood if you don't have a life.

originally posted by: KKLOCO
a reply to: trollz

Looks like you got a thread full of people that still buy the propaganda....

Most the deaths were from a major pre existing disease — not the coronavirus.

Except the ones that were young and otherwise healthy. But we can ignore them in favour of the narrative that it's all a ploy to subdue us, and we won't have any of that. Why I'm still going to walk around, touching everything - I might even lick a toilet seat to prove it's all fake - and therefore I will still be here tomorrow.

Yessir, ain't no mere cold gonna stop me being me.

It's obvious. They've been pushing this climate change business for a while now. People weren't going to change their way of life easily, so what do we do we create a reason to shut the normal way of life down. Job done...

...the only thing is, climate change is natural, so when they still see that the climate is still heading down a certain road, they're going to look really silly. Or at least shut the silly people up and that Greta thing.

a reply to: Sillyolme

You can react to this just fine without buying Costco out of meat and toilet paper. A lot of people I know are taking it seriously, and still comment that it's not as bad as the flu. Every one of them is also following the recommendations to try to keep it from spreading. There's a huge difference between taking it seriously, and losing your damn mind.

a reply to: ketsuko

With a death rate twenty times higher than the flu.

a reply to: KKLOCO
Pre-existing conditions that probably wouldn't have killed them for years if not for Coronavirus.
Jesus H Christ.
They are still dead because of Coronavirus no matter how you look at it.