Some quick math makes the coronavirus look like a complete non-issue

Last night I was beginning to feel slightly anxious with talk of states shutting down, the grocery store being practically empty, and uncertainty about where everything was headed... So I looked at the numbers. I decided to start with Italy, because the news would have us believe Italy is currently some kind of virus-infested Hell on Earth.
As of right now, I'm seeing that Italy has 41,035 confirmed cases, and 3,407 deaths. But wait, what's Italy's population? 60.4 million... So let's do some math here. If I divide the confirmed cases (41,035) by Italy's population (60,400,000) to get the percentage of Italy's population that is infected, I get... 0.00067939 (0.067939%), which is less than 1/10th of 1%. Now, let's do the math on deaths. 0.00008392 (0.008392%), which is less than 1/100th of 1%.
I don't live in Italy, though; I live in the United States, so let' see how we're faring over here:
10,442 confirmed, 150 deaths, population 329,000,000. This comes out to:
0.00003174, or 0.003174% of the population confirmed to be infected, and 150 out of 329,000,000 dead, which the online calculator won't even display.

How many people die of heart disease in the US every year? Over 647,000. That means that on average 1,772 people die every day of heart disease just in the US alone.
Accidents in general? About 170,000, or about 465 per day.
In 2017, over 37,000 people died in car accidents, or about 101 per day.

So, can someone tell me again why we're panicking and shutting everything down?

a reply to: trollz

It`s gonna be a brave new world.

Yeah, I'll tell you.
Over 600 people died in Italy yesterday from Corona. It's an accelerating daily run rate of deaths. At the current trajectory between 0.5-1m Italians will die unless they can stop the spread.

America is even closer to the START of the trajectory.

doesn't add up.....it must be my Scriptural viewpoint... virus then economic woes then stacked on top of each other...quick,...look behind you, don't stop scanning the horizon for the third whatever.

next is food chain and Aliens. Seriously, Aliens were invented for a reason. naw I mean allowed to give this world hints since ever was....

the great deception....here she comes....everything is occurrung more rapid pace huh!!

There’s a few reasons.

One is slow down the rate of cases and don’t overwhelm the hospitals with a big portion of the population not getting it at once. As it’s highly contagious.

a reply to: UKTruth

I am not convinced the deaths are caused by the virus alone, they have received a lot of criticism on how they are operating and what kind of care/meds they have been giving.

originally posted by: trollz

So, can someone tell me again why we're panicking and shutting everything down?

because it has the potential to overwhelm the medical system.. imagine if you needed emergency treatment due to an accident.. you need intensive care.. but there are none..

what if you had a stroke completely unrelated to the virus and needed an ICU bed, but there are none..

I had the same position as you to. But then I learned this new perspective:

The big problem is ‘capacity’:
No-one is immune from this virus. So if it spreads, a large portion of the population will get it. Even if just a small percentage of those people need extensive help in a hospital, that would be such a large amount of needing people, that the hospitals wont have the capacity to give all the needed care.
This actually is happening now in Italy. Medics will make a choice who gets the help and who will NOT, with the consequence that person will probably die. The deathrate in Italy is around 8% due to lack of medical capacity.

So: most people will get the virus. For most people, that is no problem at all.
But: the infections need to be slowed doen and spread out over time to be able to help all severe cases. This to prevent unnecessary extra deaths.

originally posted by: trollz

So, can someone tell me again why we're panicking and shutting everything down?

Sure -

Because your math is completely inaccurate.
Your not taking into account the projected infections over the incubation period so if 21 days or so is the supposed incubation period then your math is out by 21 days minimum, not to mention that your math can't predetermine who gets it and their susceptibility to extreme infection making death more likely and how many people those infected have infected whilst walking around pre symptomatic which only amplifies the errors in your math.

Give it a rest, the math don't work here Einstein.

originally posted by: trollz
So, can someone tell me again why we're panicking and shutting everything down?

nypost.com...

Even if you survive it, it sure sounds like it's hell to live through.

What’s up people, my first post here. Currently in Long Island NY and my friend posts a video of a train over a mile long filled with tanks. If this was “fake” and nothing to worry about why are so many military vehicles being seen transport not only here in Long Island but all across the country. Google it

originally posted by: ApacheShark
What’s up people, my first post here. Currently in Long Island NY and my friend posts a video of a train over a mile long filled with tanks. If this was “fake” and nothing to worry about why are so many military vehicles being seen transport not only here in Long Island but all across the country. Google it

Because the real reasons for the lockdowns is about to unfold.

originally posted by: Imhere
There’s a few reasons.

One is slow down the rate of cases and don’t overwhelm the hospitals with a big portion of the population not getting it at once. As it’s highly contagious.

There's no need to lock down the world to prevent overwhelming hospitals. Good handwashing techniques and social distancing (without quarantining entire states, countries) can accomplish this.

As the OP stated, the threat doesn't match the governmental response. Thus, our critically-thinking minds start to look for alternative answers. We should be thinking of what actual reason there might be for the following:

1. Inducing fear in the population;
2. Movement restrictions;
2. Criminalizing gatherings >10 people;
3. Artificial shortages of products;
4. Sudden reliance on government for livelihood, UBI;
5. National Guard deployment, military presence domestic/foreign;
6. Destroying national economies.

Clearly, the overall theme of the above is controlling the population - but to what end? Again, to me, the response simply doesn't match the threat as described. Either the threat is far worse than we're being told (i.e., it causes unseen genetic mutations, sterilization, etc.) or all this is being done for some reason other than the virus itself.

a reply to: trollz

You have done the wrong sum.

Try this sum:

3,407 as a percentage of 41,035

= 8.302668453758987 %.

That means over 8% of people who have caught it WILL DIE if Italy's data is repeated elsewhere. That is 8 people in every 100. This is staggering.

If the Covid-19 Virus infected all human beings, 7,530,000,000, then 0.62519093456805 billion people WILL DIE!

Now you understand why everyone is worried. It is showing to be highly and quickly passed on and we are all vulnerable to it.

World wide, 244,500 have been infected as of yesterday,

metro.co.uk...

the coronavirus death toll has now passed 10,000.

10.000 is 4.09 % of 244.500.

The world wide trend is almost 5 in every 100 dying who contract the Virus.

Nature has been a very clever hacker to have spread this on all of us and our machinery so very quickly.

Do you not see the obvious? That is why we must do everything we can realistically do to slow the infection rate so we have a chance of treating the ill. So quickly we will be inundated and people will be dying in their homes and their corpses rotting.

Let us not downplay this. We need some serious Malware protection here.

I am hoping not to lose my Mother to this who has just returned from India. She has a heart problem and very weak lungs. My brother's wife has MS and I have chronic asthma. I'll do anything I can to make sure we stay alive and tolerate what lockdowns need to happen to save us all from certain hell if this gets out of control. It has already got quite out of control in Italy. It is still spiking day after day. Day after day there are increasing numbers of people dying their hundreds now. Will that turn into thousands each day? It could do.

a reply to: UKTruth

I know you and I rarely see eye to eye... But kudos for saying something in the midst of everyone trying to drum this up as some hoax.

originally posted by: Kakamega
a reply to: trollz

You have done the wrong sum.

Try this sum:

3,407 as a percentage of 41,035

= 8.302668453758987 %.

That means over 8% of people who have caught it WILL DIE if Italy's data is repeated elsewhere. That is 8 people in every hundred. This is staggering.

If the Covid-19 Virus infected all human beings, 7,530,000,000, then 0.62519093456805 billion people WILL DIE!

Now you understand why everyone is worried. It is showing to be highly and quickly passed on and we are all vulnerable to it.

World wide, 244,500 have been infected as of yesterday,

metro.co.uk...

the coronavirus death toll has now passed 10,000.

10.000 is 4.09 % of 244.500.

The world wide trend is almost 5 in every hundred dying who contract the Virus.

Nature has been a very clever hacker to have spread this on all of us and our machinery so very quickly.

Do you not see the obvious? That is why we must do everything we can realistically do to slow the infection rate so we have a chance of treating the ill. So quickly we will be inundated and people will be dying in their homes and their corpses rotting.

Let us not downplay this. We need some serious Malware protection here.

Many more are likely infected than the data shows. Thus, your percentages are almost certainly incorrect.

a reply to: trollz

You're doing the wrong math. As I have said before, if all these folks were thoughtful and considerate enough to die at home and not seek medical care for life-threatening issues, then there'd be no issue at all. Just as you've demonstrated, their deaths are a complete non-issue. And if they do so in pain and suffering, alone and afraid, no sweat off your nose, right? People die, right? Too bad so sad.

The correct math is how many people will be symptomatic at one time, and how many of those patients will develop life-threatening complications, and how many of those patients will go to the hospital at the same time... then correlated with the number of hospitals/doctors/nurses/technicians/equipment, etc., required to provide medical treatment to that amount of patients.

Do we have enough medical resources -- human and otherwise -- to provide medical care to that number of patients at a given time? And do we have enough to do so for an indefinite amount of time?

If the answer is no, then our only choices are to minimize infections or increase medical resources or both. We are doing both.

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: UKTruth

I know you and I rarely see eye to eye... But kudos for saying something in the midst of everyone trying to drum this up as some hoax.

There are times to put politics and ideological viewpoints to one side. This is definitely one of them.

originally posted by: UKTruth

originally posted by: CriticalStinker
a reply to: UKTruth

I know you and I rarely see eye to eye... But kudos for saying something in the midst of everyone trying to drum this up as some hoax.

There are times to put politics and ideological viewpoints to one side. This is definitely one of them.

Couldn't agree more. I'd like to see us all be able to look at any topic and detach from broad ideology and just talk about pros and cons of X without predisposition... We may be a while off from that, but this issue seems to be a test if we're ever capable of such a thing.

originally posted by: oriondc
There's no need to lock down the world to prevent overwhelming hospitals. Good handwashing techniques and social distancing (without quarantining entire states, countries) can accomplish this.

Surely you jest. Have you seen humans?? Have you actually watched how they are?? Sure, some humans are nice and clean, but many are actually quite disgusting and refuse to follow any rules whatsoever. Why do you think every government is over-reaching?? Because people won't take it upon themselves to be clean, nor actually follow through with social distancing.

Look on twitter at how many people say things like "I'll do what I want!". Hell, many people literally do the exact opposite of what any authority figure tells them. I work in banking and here's a nice, lovely example for you. One of our regulars, not a very nice lady at all, came into our branch the day before we started closing lobbies to do a tiny deposit. She brought her daughter and her 5 grandchildren in with her, all 5 years and younger. They were running around, dirty hands messing around with everything, and 3 of them didn't even have shoes on. Her daughter had to sign a check over to her, so upon handing me her ID I saw that she actually had dirt crusted on her hands. This woman, with multiple children, had dirt crusted on her hands. They also don't seem to give a crap about social distancing, because they were even leaning over the counter at me. This is one of many out there, humans are quite disgusting.

Then there's this little gem:

baltimore.cbslocal.com... ndemic/

The mayor had to actually ask the gang-bangers to stop killing each other, even for a little bit, so they don't overwhelm the hospitals.

So, yeah, I get what you're saying. If people just got cleaner and kept up social distancing, this would help everything greatly, but would they?? No, they wouldn't, hence why we're all being grounded like snotty children that won't listen to their parents.