Please. . . . Calm down

originally posted by: Vinadetta
I'm sorry, but I am deeply concerned about this. It doesn't matter if this crisis is manufactured or not, if it came from bat soup in a market, or a level 4 Biological Weapons plant in Wuhan. This virus is here and I don't feel it is going away soon. I have never seen big governments, big business, scientists, healthcare professionals, and the general public be in complete and total fear of this. If the death rate continues to be around 4%, and the infection rate continues to spread like it does, you can see why people think that every hospital bed in the US will be full by the middle of May. Can you imagine our healthcare system which is inadequately prepare for anything like this being fully pushed to the brink? Everything is being cancelled from sporting events, conferences, festivals, business travel, tourism, we are likely going to enter a world wide recession and feel this for years. Imagine if major cities and states end up in full quarantine. It will result is massive layoffs, foreclosures, lost income, and crush our economy etc.

Like many of you I'm just as fearful as what the results will be.: Government forced vaccinations, cashless society, military healthcare marital law, population control, etc.

I don't think anything will ever be the same after this, and the world we live is ready for a massive shock. My .02

its going away after flu season then will be back when fall rolls around and flu season comes back lolol be afraid be very very afraid or else you might avoid the eval eye!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lolololololololol

Whelp....

I was going to write a thread about this, but have decided that I don't want the flags, stars (or perceived desire to get either/both) or attention associated with such a thing.

So I will state it here- I have been exposed and am displaying symptoms. It's more like an annoying hangover at this point, and TBH, I care more about my three under four than I do myself.

Symptoms include sore throat, runny nose, and tightness in chest. Of course there is a cough, but thankfully it is a dry one, and I have a slight fever. Also, oddly, itchy eyes.

We have always been disaster prepared in my household, and in case of a lack of food, I have more guns and ammo than my liberal neighbors. (not a knock on liberals, just a fact in Maryland) I'm more annoyed than anything else, and feel bad that two days ago I took my mother-in-law to a diner for dinner during the early bird time, and having been in uniform shook too many elderly hands. That, and I have been making a bunch of Wu-flu jokes, which is irony in a nutshell.

As to the OP; I think that this is a bunch of hype, and hyperbole. Yet I also have never seen such a lack of information in my time, and liken it to the early days of AIDS as far as information goes. Nobody knows nearly enough about this thing, and yet everyone is either a doomsayer or naysayer. That's getting pretty old.

I've always thought the herd needs thinning, but would rather not be a part of that slaughter. BTW, no I am not quarantined. they won't test us, and therefore there isn't enough information to go on.

Please do not star this post, but do feel free to IM me on this platform.

We can all relax now, the Governor of Illinois said they government is here for you and is here to help.....

“I want folks to understand this is going to affect your daily life, but know that your city, your county, and your state officials are working hard to stay ahead of this, and to give you all the facts as soon as you know them,” Pritzker said.

So no need to go on ATS, they government will tell you all the facts.

(BTW, did anyone catch this slip - he said "as soon as you know them" instead of "instead of as soon as we know them".

a reply to: ThouArtGod

See?

Now maybe I have it ... this time. I might have had it in January ...

The problem is that the symptoms are so general that any mild cold or flu-like illness could be it. Certainly in January husband brought it home after having had contact with Chinese VIPs at work, and we all three had it.

This time, we know it's in our area because there has been at least one positive tested case.

Hi everyone, this is my first post on ATS, so please go easy!

I was trying to post this on the Coronavirus Updates thread, but I'm not sure if I have sufficient permissions.

As such, some kind soul (!) might like to just pass on my sincere thanks to everyone who has been posting updates on there the last few months. I had never heard of this website before Coronavirus, and it was only by accident I actually found this website. As it turns out, the Coronavirus Updates thread has actually been my go to source for excellent new information, and explained in a very good way, with views from all over the world. Invaluable!

I am in the UK, and it will be very interesting to see what happens here in the next few weeks.

As this is my first post, I wondered if anyone would be able to help me and/or direct me to a post or thread relating to a question I had.

This is not a rude question, nor trolling of any sort whatsoever, it is just a really genuine question, of which I do not understand what the answer is, and I have looked long and hard on here, and cannot find an answer anywhere, nor online anywhere else!

As follows: .... If the first case of this Coronavirus was way back in December in China, then my (non-medical!) logic would say that this would have to have been circulating in China since at least November. Millions of people have flown between China and the UK, and that is 5 months of travel i.e November to March. This is supposedly one of the most contagious viruses of modern times, so why is it not already here in the UK, in the hundreds of thousands?! Shouldn't it be? My thought process was that at the start, they were only testing people with symptoms who had returned from China, so could it be that if they start vigorous testing very soon, that there will be hundreds of thousands of people who have already recovered, who perhaps recovered in say December or January?

It was interesting a while back seeing that someone in Spain died in early February (from memory), but was later tested, and was found to have the Coronavirus. So that suggests it could have been circulating freely in January.

So what I dont understand, is can any of the figures we are using, to give various percentages and ratios of deaths etc, can any of these figures actually ever give a meaningful answer?

Anyway, that was my question. Please appreciate I am completely new to this forum, and I have no background in medicals or anything.

Hopefully someone can point me in the right direction or to a post on this subject.

Again, thank you everyone for all the updates on the Coronavirus Updates thread. This website is brilliant, and I very much regret only finding it now! Nice to meet you all

a reply to: ketsuko

Yeah- I'm not too worried about me, but a few old-timers in my office have me worried, plus my kids. Of course, old-timers is relative in the military, as they are 50. but still.

a reply to: TimUK

Hey Tim, and welcome! I wrote a thread that addresses the R0 rate (R-aught), meaning transmission rate, etc., and have touched on real vs. perceived threats regarding the spread of the Wu Flu.

My Wu Flu Thread

How are things in the UK? My second favorite place to visit, and I have been thinking of my Afghanistan buddies who are stationed near Hyde Park...

Anyone know what's happened to the corona virus updates thread (4) I cant comment on it and cant see any replies since 7.20am this morning (gmt) ??

a reply to: Thecakeisalie

i've quarantine myself not from the flu, but from idiots who freak out when somebody sneezes, you know the type of people who need a tutorial on how to use a fork.

Well, hell, then I've been in quarantine for 20 years...

TheRedneck

a reply to: ThouArtGod

Yes, I am keeping myself home today at least. I'm supposed to have a water aerobics class, but since all the other attendees are retired age and up, I'm not going even though ordinarily I'd plug on.

I'll not take myself to PT today either.

I'm not that sick ... but in these times, it's just smarter not to take the chance that I might be passing the wrong thing on.

a reply to: TheRedneck

C'mon Redneck, there's a difference between self-isolation and being ostracized from polite society.

a reply to: ketsuko

Agreed... I'm not nearly as sick as a few in my office (actually, I just feel symptoms with a tight chest and cough), but they told us to be here, so I have no choice. Just no more unnecessary stops I guess.

a reply to: TimUK

Welcome Tim.

My viewpoint is this: yes, this is a very contagious disease and it has no vaccination (yet). It is likely already "out of the bag" and uncontainable. However, I don't think the death percentages are accurate. I base this on the fact that we are discovering new infected cases constantly as test kits become available. If 400 people died out of a suspected 10,000 cases, that's a 4% death rate; but if there were actually 100,000 cases and those same 400 people died, the death rate is 0.4%, much closer to season flu levels. In short, we don't know how many actual cases there are out there, so we also can only guess at the death rate. It's not going to be higher, certainly, because we are using numbers of already-known infected... but it could be much, much lower. This bug often has only very minor symptoms, seeming like a mild cold.

So far, the vast majority of deaths seem to be from people of advanced age with contributing illnesses that make the resultant pneumonia harder to treat. Those least affected seem to include children, those with certain types of COPD, smokers, and ex-smokers. There also seems to be at least two "types" of the virus, one significantly more deadly than the other. The fact that the death rate appears to skyrocket in certain areas makes me wonder if there are not multiple infections of the various types working together. I originally was of the mind that Wuhan was so badly affected due to the air pollution inherent there, but Italy's experiences are not consistent with that hypothesis. Perhaps it's got something to do with genetic susceptibility? Perhaps not; just thinking out loud.

Stay alert, take precautions, yes, absolutely. But like the OP said: please, don't panic.

TheRedneck

originally posted by: BowBells
Anyone know what's happened to the corona virus updates thread (4) I cant comment on it and cant see any replies since 7.20am this morning (gmt) ??

I am wondering the same thing. Looks like it’s closed down but with no explanation and no new one made. I keep hoping a part 5 will show up soon but with the other threads a mod posted to say it was shutting down and a new thread started so I’m confused

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: TimUK

Welcome Tim.

My viewpoint is this: yes, this is a very contagious disease and it has no vaccination (yet). It is likely already "out of the bag" and uncontainable. However, I don't think the death percentages are accurate. I base this on the fact that we are discovering new infected cases constantly as test kits become available. If 400 people died out of a suspected 10,000 cases, that's a 4% death rate; but if there were actually 100,000 cases and those same 400 people died, the death rate is 0.4%, much closer to season flu levels. In short, we don't know how many actual cases there are out there, so we also can only guess at the death rate. It's not going to be higher, certainly, because we are using numbers of already-known infected... but it could be much, much lower. This bug often has only very minor symptoms, seeming like a mild cold.

So far, the vast majority of deaths seem to be from people of advanced age with contributing illnesses that make the resultant pneumonia harder to treat. Those least affected seem to include children, those with certain types of COPD, smokers, and ex-smokers. There also seems to be at least two "types" of the virus, one significantly more deadly than the other. The fact that the death rate appears to skyrocket in certain areas makes me wonder if there are not multiple infections of the various types working together. I originally was of the mind that Wuhan was so badly affected due to the air pollution inherent there, but Italy's experiences are not consistent with that hypothesis. Perhaps it's got something to do with genetic susceptibility? Perhaps not; just thinking out loud.

Stay alert, take precautions, yes, absolutely. But like the OP said: please, don't panic.

TheRedneck

Dear RedNeck,

That is really interesting, thank you very much indeed.

Interestingly, I had read somewhere else, that pollution is extremely bad in Northern Italy, and has been in the news in years gone by. Similarly in Iran. So your original hypothesis actually makes a lot of sense.

Tim

a reply to: TimUK

He's not the only one. I've been thinking there was a piece to China's puzzle we've been missing. Overall, this thing doesn't seem like it ought to be causing the problems it clearly seems to be in some places, not as compared to what we're seeing in others.

Whether China is grabbing the opportunity to take the trade war to a new level and using this disease as an excuse or there is some aggravating factor at work helping the disease out or even whether or not there are two strains of virus ... I don't know, but clearly what we see in some places seems at odds with what we see in a lot of others.

originally posted by: ThouArtGod
a reply to: TimUK

Hey Tim, and welcome! I wrote a thread that addresses the R0 rate (R-aught), meaning transmission rate, etc., and have touched on real vs. perceived threats regarding the spread of the Wu Flu.

My Wu Flu Thread

How are things in the UK? My second favorite place to visit, and I have been thinking of my Afghanistan buddies who are stationed near Hyde Park...

Hi, thank you for your kind message, and I will check out this thread

Things are getting "noisier" in the UK. The media continue to portray this as WW3. I speak to a lot of people in my local area through my business in Essex. In my opinion, I would say that from those I have spoken to, in all walks of life, it has only recently changed from something that is a bit of a joke (that is the british way at times), to something in the last few weeks I would say as "interesting." I wouldnt quite say i have seen a great deal of concern, but that is just my general opinion from speaking to several hundred people on this subject. I have seen no real panic buying, other than the handwash. But from what I hear, I think it is more the fact that supermarkets aren't very quick at re-stocking, rather than running out of stock. Plenty of toilet rolls in our local supermarket haha!

Interesting times ahead anyway

Tim

a reply to: TimUK

Interestingly, I had read somewhere else, that pollution is extremely bad in Northern Italy, and has been in the news in years gone by. Similarly in Iran. So your original hypothesis actually makes a lot of sense.

Oh, really? Hmmm... maybe my original hypothesis was on the mark after all then. Thank you for that information!

I had no idea that air pollution was bad in Italy. I tend to think of Europe in general as fairly low-pollution. Just that arrogant American attitude I guess.

TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
a reply to: TimUK

Interestingly, I had read somewhere else, that pollution is extremely bad in Northern Italy, and has been in the news in years gone by. Similarly in Iran. So your original hypothesis actually makes a lot of sense.

Oh, really? Hmmm... maybe my original hypothesis was on the mark after all then. Thank you for that information!

I had no idea that air pollution was bad in Italy. I tend to think of Europe in general as fairly low-pollution. Just that arrogant American attitude I guess.

TheRedneck

It's certainly a really interesting point.

Here's a couple of interesting links:

Link 1

Link 2

And then an interesting link for Iran:

Link 3

I am not scared for me, but I am scared for my elder parents.
When these so called experts say that up to 70% of all people in my country, Canada , will get infected, It is concerning to say the least.
And I apologize for my previous comments, I was trying to convey that we are not taking this serious enough.
This is like closing the barn door after the horse takes off. It's rediculous. Be safe and healthy.