Corona Virus Updates Part 3

The true number of coronavirus cases in Iran may be upwards of 18,000, according to a preliminary analysis by Canadian researchers, suggesting an epidemic there nearly 200 times larger than what the country has reported — and a situation with potentially grave global consequences.

A spokesperson for Iran’s health ministry said Tuesday that the country had 95 confirmed cases of COVID-19, as the disease caused by the novel coronavirus is called, and 15 deaths.

The true extent of the outbreak is “not only concerning to people in Iran, but also to Canadians and everyone else on the planet,” said Isaac Bogoch, a co-author of the analysis and an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital and the University of Toronto.

“We’re so interconnected that this is not just an Iranian problem.”

Experts have expressed concern that the extent of the outbreak in Iran is under-reported, and that uncontrolled transmission in the country could have profound consequences for limiting the global spread of the disease. Iran shares borders with or has close ties to several countries — including Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria — that have little to no capacity to detect or contain infections.

The Canadian scientists, a group of infectious disease specialists and mathematical modellers, crunched numbers over the weekend to estimate the real size of the epidemic in Iran. The results were published Tuesday on medRxiv, a website that posts preliminary research that has not yet been peer-reviewed and published in a journal.

The team based its analysis in part on the number of international cases linked to Iran.

www.thestar.com...

originally posted by: clay2 baraka

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
China took as hard line as anyone could in this world, short of shooting anyone with a cough...........

Unlike North Korea which immediately executed an official who placed themselves at risk in China.

(and are probably controlling the outbreak in N Korea in a similarly brutal way as we speak)..

Probably more so, Rumor is they arent even quarantining them, they are just putting them down.........if thats truth we may never know.........

But i get your point for sure

I'm at the conclusion that the American CDC knows now that the situation in America is out of control. Someone is controlling the news. Something is NOT right.

a reply to: liejunkie01

I am certainly not an expert but from what I have read you would just be a normal citizen almost a non-smoker but it depends on the damage on your lungs

originally posted by: musicismagic
I'm at the conclusion that the American CDC knows now that the situation in America is out of control. Someone is controlling the news. Something is NOT right.

They have known for a while now. The current strategy is to focus on an antiviral medication as they probably realize the long incubation period and unreliable nature of the tests makes quarantine impossible..

Just in. Tokyo time 2 pm Wednesday.

Well, I mentioned I'd turn on the news. Sat for 5 minutes and walked away.

1. Hokkaido now has 35 cases of known infections (OK, the truth here is this: Doctors can NOT test for this virus, the people have to go to a special place to be tested). I believe this is a good practice and should be done in America. And the test should be free. The test they are using is the PCR (www.verywellhealth.com...) These test are available usually at the hospitals and other type of infectious disease clinics. They should be free. By the way, has America Dept. of Health classified the corona an infectious disease? Something to think about. Right now in Japan, the National Health Insurance is not covering the Corona Virus, although it has been label an infectious disease and one can not enter Japan with the disease. Can you do it in America? For non residents/citizens.

2. This is so sad. Another death, I believe now it is 5 deaths caused by the virus. A party of 3 did/went somewhere, one of them died today in Hokkaido of the corona virus. People, don't kid yourself, this "KILLS".

originally posted by: musicismagic
I'm at the conclusion that the American CDC knows now that the situation in America is out of control. Someone is controlling the news. Something is NOT right.

I dont think its out of control bud.........I think yes they are hiding numbers that they dont want people to know about.....but out of control no.........not yet at least........

Keep reporting your situation tho bud

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask

originally posted by: musicismagic
I'm at the conclusion that the American CDC knows now that the situation in America is out of control. Someone is controlling the news. Something is NOT right.

I dont think its out of control bud.........I think yes they are hiding numbers that they dont want people to know about.....but out of control no.........not yet at least........

Keep reporting your situation tho bud

Sure no problem. We get the news that is reported locally to TV stations and then I believe as I just notice BNO some how reports it after maybe watching it on TV. Not sure how it works though. What counts mostly for the Japanese is what comes on at 7 and 9 pm by NHK. Usually they have about 30 minute coverage of the virus at 9 pm and at 7pm not so much time to cover it. (people having dinner or still at work)

hey and thanks

JMHO: I may be wrong about all of the following, but I have read and watched a huge amount of info on nCov19 in the last four weeks, including every post on all three of these three threads.

I believe nCov19 is primarily transmitted by ingesting fresh spit. Cough, talking flecks into other's food or shared utensils. Many non-china clusters evolve around cooks, shared food or utensils. nCov19 is extremely infectious in that if you ingest one or two virii, you catch it. But, exposure to a virii is difficult.

I also believe that at this point people in the USA, every normal day, are exposed to multiple people who have nCov19. There is almost no testing. I have seen many accounts of US people with all the symptoms of mild cases and some with severe cases (a few deaths) that sound like nCov19, but were never tested for it. (why, is off my topic.) In fact, I think there is a 50/50 chance that my wife and I contracted mild cases late Jan 19th at LAX, and recovered.

My point: stay away from restaurants, fast food, and cafeteria!!!!

originally posted by: Oleman
JMHO: I may be wrong about all of the following, but I have read and watched a huge amount of info on nCov19 in the last four weeks, including every post on all three of these three threads.

I believe nCov19 is primarily transmitted by ingesting fresh spit. Cough, talking flecks into other's food or shared utensils. Many non-china clusters evolve around cooks, shared food or utensils. nCov19 is extremely infectious in that if you ingest one or two virii, you catch it. But, exposure to a virii is difficult.

I also believe that at this point people in the USA, every normal day, are exposed to multiple people who have nCov19. There is almost no testing. I have seen many accounts of US people with all the symptoms of mild cases and some with severe cases (a few deaths) that sound like nCov19, but were never tested for it. (why, is off my topic.) In fact, I think there is a 50/50 chance that my wife and I contracted mild cases late Jan 19th at LAX, and recovered.

My point: stay away from restaurants, fast food, and cafeteria!!!!

I read that only 3 states have the capaabilities for doing the testing themselves.

Just in:
New Coronavirus Rugby Top League Match Postponed
Following the spread of the new coronavirus, the Japan Rugby Association has decided to postpone the top league games scheduled for this month and next month.

About the month of May is still up in the air.

I wonder how major league baseball is going to do this season?

UK news BBC doing there annual NHS hospitals not coping with NORMAL winter pressures. Talking about a guy who had a heart attack waiting hours for an ambulance as none available then 12hrs+ waiting on a trolley in hospital.

This is what will cause the problems add in even an extra 0.5% of the population with this and our hospitals will be completely overwhelmed.

originally posted by: musicismagic
Just in:
New Coronavirus Rugby Top League Match Postponed
Following the spread of the new coronavirus, the Japan Rugby Association has decided to postpone the top league games scheduled for this month and next month.

About the month of May is still up in the air.

I wonder how major league baseball is going to do this season?

Also seems as though the March Grand Sumo tournament in Tokyo will either be canceled, or continue without any spectators.

originally posted by: Gumshoe

originally posted by: musicismagic
Just in:
New Coronavirus Rugby Top League Match Postponed
Following the spread of the new coronavirus, the Japan Rugby Association has decided to postpone the top league games scheduled for this month and next month.

About the month of May is still up in the air.

I wonder how major league baseball is going to do this season?

Also seems as though the March Grand Sumo tournament in Tokyo will either be canceled, or continue without any spectators.

Yep #13 here www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: Oleman

.... except that the virus is confirmed to be airborne (meaning that it can become suspended in the air in tiny droplets.)

but ingestion is certainly possible.

Heck now it's in the Daily Mail so even Jo Public is going to take it on board. Tho many are still saying it's just the flu.

Thousands of Britons are facing coronavirus screening amid fears the number of confirmed infections on UK soil could 'explode' with a 'worst case' Government report predicting 80 per cent of Britons could catch it and 500,000 may die.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

a reply to: checkmeout

Their maths is way off given the currently accepted (best estimates only) mortality rate is between 2-3%.

At 3% mortality of 48,000,000 (80% of 66,000,000) there would be approx 1,440,000 deaths

www.worldometers.info...

a reply to: tgidkp
Agreed. But if airborne was the primary transmission, a lot of situations where close contacts didnt get infected do not make sense. (ie German on island, and China traveller source) If simple airborne was an easy vector, we should have seen many more cases and a much higher Ro. Also wonder is incomplete burning of medical waste could have caused the airborne cases.

If I am right, it destroys my theory on ingestion vs inhalation / lung vs GI infection. I still don't get the dichotomy of symptoms and severity. Is still like there are two different pathogens, or maybe strains? Vitamin D3 deficiency theory still holds some promise. There is so much we still don't understand about this.

Side note to save me a PM: MusicIsMagic, STAY HOME! Let the air out of Yuko's tires!!!!

Time to start taking bets on if the Olympics take place.

I'm guessing it will be postponed.

originally posted by: tlearyus
a reply to: checkmeout

Their maths is way off given the currently accepted (best estimates only) mortality rate is between 2-3%.

At 3% mortality of 48,000,000 (80% of 66,000,000) there would be approx 1,440,000 deaths

www.worldometers.info...

Are there any figures/calculations that support over a million deaths. I would not think so.

Kind regards,

Bally