Corona Virus Updates Part 2

a reply to: texasgirl

Seriously, study the Spanish Flu and I think you'll have a much better idea. It's plenty spooky and seems to still be a much closer analog. Plus, it has the advantage of being fact and history, not fiction. There are a lot of parallels to what we're seeing.

I know; I know. It's the flu, so it's not some sexy mystery virus, but believe me, when flu picks up the right mutations and is a novel strain, it does things you wouldn't believe it could. The doctors back then didn't believe it was the flu.

@PDChina

About 50 patients and 30 medical staff in Wuhan Mental Health Center were diagnosed with the novel #coronavirus pneumonia on Feb 8, reported China News Weekly.
twitter.com...

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
Evidence to suggest tests may give false negatives 50-70% of the time

www.yicai.com...

"Not all patients can detect nucleic acid positives. For patients who are really infected with the new type of coronavirus, there are only The positive rate is 30% to 50%."

Excuse the dodgy translation

Which likely means the only truly accurate test is the subject coming out clean from the quarantine period. And I'm not really sure anyone knows exactly how long that needs to be.

Then for those that fail this test, the next test is to live long enough to be considered as "recovered".

But does "recovered" mean "permanently non-infectious"? I don't think anyone really knows the absolute answer to that one neither.

Lovely.....

IMHO.

well based on this, you'd need to test someone 13 times to be 99% sure they are not infected. If my maths is correct. I really need sleep. I do believe China is working on alternative tests though. This was a while ago though so they hopefully have those now.

Your point on the meaning of recovered is a good one too. The idea is that you have built up enough immunity so that the virus can longer survive in your body. i.e. you are completely clear of the virus and cannot be reinfected. You may be left with other things such as lung damage, possibly other organ damage, but you are at least considered recovered from the virus.

With things like Ebola hiding in very remote locations in your body though, you can test clear, only to re-infect yourself much much later.

Immunity may last 6 months until your body essentially forgets how to be immune to this particular virus, but the virus may have mutated by then anyway so although you may have some residual immunity, it may not be as effective against the mutated virus. Hopefully this one would be less severe though.

Lot of "hopefully"s in there.

My medical knowledge is pretty scant, but I thought that viruses (virii?) were a forever thing in the body. You are never really cured of them, your body has just adapted to them and maintains a truce with them. Something causing your immune system to go on vacation, and then the virus can start to get the upper hand again.

So basically every virus you have ever caught is still with you, somewhere in your body.

So am I misunderstanding how this works?

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
Evidence to suggest tests may give false negatives 50-70% of the time

www.yicai.com...

"Not all patients can detect nucleic acid positives. For patients who are really infected with the new type of coronavirus, there are only The positive rate is 30% to 50%."

Excuse the dodgy translation

Which likely means the only truly accurate test is the subject coming out clean from the quarantine period. And I'm not really sure anyone knows exactly how long that needs to be.

Then for those that fail this test, the next test is to live long enough to be considered as "recovered".

But does "recovered" mean "permanently non-infectious"? I don't think anyone really knows the absolute answer to that one neither.

Lovely.....

IMHO.

well based on this, you'd need to test someone 13 times to be 99% sure they are not infected. If my maths is correct. I really need sleep. I do believe China is working on alternative tests though. This was a while ago though so they hopefully have those now.

Your point on the meaning of recovered is a good one too. The idea is that you have built up enough immunity so that the virus can longer survive in your body. i.e. you are completely clear of the virus and cannot be reinfected. You may be left with other things such as lung damage, possibly other organ damage, but you are at least considered recovered from the virus.

With things like Ebola hiding in very remote locations in your body though, you can test clear, only to re-infect yourself much much later.

Immunity may last 6 months until your body essentially forgets how to be immune to this particular virus, but the virus may have mutated by then anyway so although you may have some residual immunity, it may not be as effective against the mutated virus. Hopefully this one would be less severe though.

Lot of "hopefully"s in there.

Replying to myself, hope that's not controversial but thought I should just mention this in case any of us get infected or the ones we love.

" The idea is that you have built up enough immunity so that the virus can longer survive in your body. i.e. you are completely clear of the virus and cannot be reinfected."

This is why currently, apart from various experimental treatments going on around the world, treat the symptoms.

Specifically, kids ibuprofen, for kids obviously. I read Aspirin for adults, but other things may be better, I'd have to look into it. Don't take my word for it.

Basically you want to keep them as comfortable as possible, take the strain off their bodies, let their immune system catch up. Buy them time. When you start getting into pneumonia this gets a lot more complicated, and this advice is very basic, just thought it worth mentioning. You just need to make them survive long enough to build the immunity.

a reply to: ketsuko

Hi Kets- Yes, I've studied the Spanish flu and have three books on it. Am currently reading FLU by Gina Colada. It's horrifying bedtime reading but I find it fascinating to learn how it quickly ravaged the world. One doctor's letter to a friend described the horror of bodies stacked up in a makeshift morgue "like cordwood". Very frightening.

But there are times when I just want to watch a movie. And Contagion fit the bill.

originally posted by: Violater1
a reply to: Rich Z

Coronavirus outbreak: Death toll surpasses total from SARS outbreak
Coronavirus deaths: Another 89 people died in China's Hubei province on Saturday, bringing the total death toll around the world to at least 813. The number of confirmed cases has risen to at least 27,100 in Hubei province alone, with the global number of infected now at more than 37,000 -- the vast majority in mainland China.
www.cnn.com...

Well, yeah, but the "reporters" at CNN probably learned that HERE.

a reply to: texasgirl

Can't generally watch the outbreak type movies with my husband around. He points out everything wrong with the science in them.



No fun at all.

He does the same thing with magicians/illusionists. Loudly sits there trying to break down how they do it. NO FUN.

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67

originally posted by: Rich Z

originally posted by: Oppenheimer67
Evidence to suggest tests may give false negatives 50-70% of the time

www.yicai.com...

"Not all patients can detect nucleic acid positives. For patients who are really infected with the new type of coronavirus, there are only The positive rate is 30% to 50%."

Excuse the dodgy translation

Sorry the short answer to that is I don't know. To hazard a guess, I'd say your body can fight off and remove some viruses, but some hang on. I imagine some find a special place to hide, like Ebola, and some as you say are just at equilibrium, waiting for you to get stressed and then they take advantage.

Which likely means the only truly accurate test is the subject coming out clean from the quarantine period. And I'm not really sure anyone knows exactly how long that needs to be.

Then for those that fail this test, the next test is to live long enough to be considered as "recovered".

But does "recovered" mean "permanently non-infectious"? I don't think anyone really knows the absolute answer to that one neither.

Lovely.....

IMHO.

well based on this, you'd need to test someone 13 times to be 99% sure they are not infected. If my maths is correct. I really need sleep. I do believe China is working on alternative tests though. This was a while ago though so they hopefully have those now.

Your point on the meaning of recovered is a good one too. The idea is that you have built up enough immunity so that the virus can longer survive in your body. i.e. you are completely clear of the virus and cannot be reinfected. You may be left with other things such as lung damage, possibly other organ damage, but you are at least considered recovered from the virus.

With things like Ebola hiding in very remote locations in your body though, you can test clear, only to re-infect yourself much much later.

Immunity may last 6 months until your body essentially forgets how to be immune to this particular virus, but the virus may have mutated by then anyway so although you may have some residual immunity, it may not be as effective against the mutated virus. Hopefully this one would be less severe though.

Lot of "hopefully"s in there.

My medical knowledge is pretty scant, but I thought that viruses (virii?) were a forever thing in the body. You are never really cured of them, your body has just adapted to them and maintains a truce with them. Something causing your immune system to go on vacation, and then the virus can start to get the upper hand again.

So basically every virus you have ever caught is still with you, somewhere in your body.

So am I misunderstanding how this works?

Sorry thought I'd answered this but seems to have lost it, writing again.

Sorry, but short answer is I don't know. To hazard a guess I'd say that some viruses can be fought off and removed by your body, some hang on. Some might hide like Ebola, some might exist in equilibrium as you describe, waiting for you to become stressed so that they can take advantage. I have no idea how nCoV behaves, but being a Corona virus, I'd assume it can be fought off like other Corona viruses. It's optimistic and I'm sticking to it.

originally posted by: ketsuko
a reply to: texasgirl

Seriously, study the Spanish Flu and I think you'll have a much better idea. It's plenty spooky and seems to still be a much closer analog. Plus, it has the advantage of being fact and history, not fiction. There are a lot of parallels to what we're seeing.

I know; I know. It's the flu, so it's not some sexy mystery virus, but believe me, when flu picks up the right mutations and is a novel strain, it does things you wouldn't believe it could. The doctors back then didn't believe it was the flu.

In case anyone missed this being posted earlier, it's a darn good video that really opens up your eyes about that Spanish flu.

www.youtube.com...

And it also opens up your eyes about the mistakes that government officials can make that wind up killing millions of people.

a reply to: ketsuko

I suggest you kick his a** out and watch it alone. More fun that way, anyway.

a reply to: Oppenheimer67

Generally with a virus, treating the symptoms is about all you can do anyhow.

I think though with this one, if you can start turning the corner in about 7 days, you'll beat it on your own unless you pick up a secondary infection.

a reply to: ketsuko

If it weren't for me being a huge sucker for disaster movies I'd do the same thing lol. Heck, I probably still do it, but it's usually in jest instead of "This is crap why am I watching this." Don't get me started on The Day After Tomorrow for example.

a reply to: Violater1

The number of confirmed cases has risen to at least 27,100 in Hubei province alone,

There is no way in hell, that with as fast as this has traveled in countries with way better healthcare than in Wuhan, that that number is correct

its mathematically impossible

The fact that just about every outlet is just swallowing the BS china puts out, other than TheBlaze, who is ringing the "guys stay informed and be cautious" alarm bell

And here on ATS

Ridiculous

with regards to Spanish Flu. Search "Cytokine Storm, Spanish Flu, nCoV".

Now that's horror.

On that note, I must go to bed.

Good night all and thank you for all your contributions and updates on this.

originally posted by: toysforadults
a reply to: ketsuko

this isn't over yet, there's a coincidental timing of this event with the saturn pluto conjunction

this is a big deal and there's more to come..

Stop trolling the thread man, one minute youre saying theres nothing to see here and everyoens over reacting, the next your intentionally posting stuff like this to troll the people here.

Look you dont have to believe anything posted, here, you dont have to take it serious either.

But have some respect and stop trying to derail the thread, for people who are actually doing constant research and updates on thsi thread.

Its hugely disrespectful.

Is anyone else monitoring the status of this in the USA and thinking, "Gee, it's been at only 12 confirmed cases for days now, how can that be?"

a reply to: IngyBall
Day After Tomorrow is one of my favorite comedies. Global Warming chases people!

originally posted by: Rich Z
Is anyone else monitoring the status of this in the USA and thinking, "Gee, it's been at only 12 confirmed cases for days now, how can that be?"

Not terribly surprised so far ... The cases we've had have been imported from China. We see the most cases so far in the West Coast cities with the largest native Chinese populations.

While this is very contagious, it's also more of a close contact spreader, meaning you ideally get it from being close to someone and take home and give it to your family. It will spread in the packed in spaces in places like Chinese apartment buildings like wildfire, but it's going to need a little help to get going here.

There are places where it could really become a serious issue though. Imagine it getting into the homeless camps in some of those West Coast cities. There are some apartment buildings in the states with nasty conditions in them. A school tends to spread everything it gets into it. The close quarters of business meetings can do it. A student in a college dorm would have a good shot at creating an outbreak.

Obviously, the last place you want to be is one a cruise ship as we see from those poor folks sitting confined to their ship in Yokohama.