Taiwan trembling with fear as dragon arms itself

Odium your right i didnt run everything through my head first, but all im saying is that a chinese invasion on taiwan would be about as succesful as US going into Iraq they might get in there but it would not be in there best interest, I personall dont think the UN wouldnt stand for China going in and taking over taiwan, i agree bush not running things the best way all i know is if China and US went to war i would rather be In US then over there. And true Russia Technology is getting better, and last i heard there was already 50 F22s in service with more to come. And pilot training has alot to do with having a good airforce russia can have the best fighter but no good without the training which has been a problem for them since the North Korean war, and as far as i know the F-15 has an undefeated record when is comes to air to air combat Russia supplied the best they had to Iraq in the first and second Gulf war And none of the Russian jets did very well.
Certainly US does not have the military Might it used to I dont think we would do a D-Day and send in troops, i do think there would be Espionage,sabotage, High altitude Bombing runs and cruise missile strikes, and with technology Taiwan is gettin from US i dont think Taiwan would sit and wait for chinese to get to there island.
And just so you know i strongly disagree with the Iraq war as well as most other nations do, however it might be a different story if the Iraq war was a UN Decision, I think UN would opt to Defend Taiwan.

Originally posted by zakattack
Odium your right i didnt run everything through my head first, but all im saying is that a chinese invasion on taiwan would be about as succesful as US going into Iraq they might get in there but it would not be in there best interest, I personall dont think the UN wouldnt stand for China going in and taking over taiwan, i agree bush not running things the best way all i know is if China and US went to war i would rather be In US then over there. And true Russia Technology is getting better, and last i heard there was already 50 F22s in service with more to come. And pilot training has alot to do with having a good airforce russia can have the best fighter but no good without the training which has been a problem for them since the North Korean war, and as far as i know the F-15 has an undefeated record when is comes to air to air combat Russia supplied the best they had to Iraq in the first and second Gulf war And none of the Russian jets did very well.
Certainly US does not have the military Might it used to I dont think we would do a D-Day and send in troops, i do think there would be Espionage,sabotage, High altitude Bombing runs and cruise missile strikes, and with technology Taiwan is gettin from US i dont think Taiwan would sit and wait for chinese to get to there island.
And just so you know i strongly disagree with the Iraq war as well as most other nations do, however it might be a different story if the Iraq war was a UN Decision, I think UN would opt to Defend Taiwan.

In regards with the United Nations, I don’t think that they would be able to declare war on China. Both Russia and France have veto power, in the event a ‘Counter attack’ was brought in front of the United Nations Security Council. Russia can’t loose out on the money they earn from China in weapons trade, so I personally think they’d veto going to war with China.

I’ve never seen any numbers going above 12 for the F-22 Raptors at the present moment - if you can find a link or if anyone else has one saying they ‘have’ more at the moment, I’d like it. Please.

“As of 2000, the F-15 in all air forces has a combined kill record of 104 kills to zero losses in air combat (a Japanese F-15J shot down another F-15J in 1995 due to an AIM-9 Sidewinder safety malfunction during air-to-air combat training with real weapons). The F-15E sustained two losses to ground fire in the Persian Gulf War of 1991. One F-15E was lost in the 2003 Invasion of Iraq, probably due to ground fire.” en.wikipedia.org...

But as far as I know, the F-15 has never gone up against a ‘Modern Air Force or SAM system’? It has always gone against dated technology - where as China could become a different story. Also, with the fact it is seen as ‘Unbeatable’ by a lot of people, this ideology could cause a lot more harm then good. Especially if a pilot begins to believe that they can’t loose because they’re flying an F-15.

As far as I know, China’s going to be getting the S-400 system in the next year or so (correct me if I’m wrong) but as far as I know, this system can actually shoot down ‘Cruise Missiles’ a lot better then the PAC-3 can, which is what Taiwan will soon have.

I also think Mainland China, would just bomb Taiwan with those 700missiles until they could walk in with only a limited resistance. Especially with the way Taiwan has set its Military up. It’s spaced up over three Islands - two of which don’t have much civilian info-structure (spelling), meaning they could inflict 20,000 casualties within what 10minutes of declaring war. Enough to get Taiwan to give up - especially since China would be ready for America (Western) intervention. They might have their Submarine fleet near to where the American Navy would be - waiting.

Also, if they went the route of the U.N. by the time the meeting had been organised, decision, etc, Taiwan would already be concurred. It’d only take 6hours to have the whole Island invaded. After all, the Zubr can make it from the Mainland to Taiwan in under 90minutes. Without their Air force able to take off (runways destroyed) or an active Navy, they’d be unable to stop the landing.

www.naval.ca...

Also have a read of that, China has no problem with annoying and irritating the America Navy.

Thats an interesting article. so are you saying that if china wanted to that they could invade Taiwan with no trouble at all? I dont think Taiwan would just sit there. You kind of make it sound like China can do anything it wants to, Do you think China is so powerful it could invade the US?, also got to think that when it comes to war China is not as Experienced when it comes to war as US is. I personnaly i dont think that just the US alone Could Invade China and win but i think the US could Gaurd Japan or Taiwan well enough to weaken The chinese offense, And both US and China have nukes to use on each other But i dont think that china wants to Nuke us nor do i think China wants to nuke or bomb the livin daylight our Taiwan. Then what would china have when they did get the island.

Originally posted by zakattack
Thats an interesting article. so are you saying that if china wanted to that they could invade Taiwan with no trouble at all? I dont think Taiwan would just sit there. You kind of make it sound like China can do anything it wants to, Do you think China is so powerful it could invade the US?, also got to think that when it comes to war China is not as Experienced when it comes to war as US is. I personnaly i dont think that just the US alone Could Invade China and win but i think the US could Gaurd Japan or Taiwan well enough to weaken The chinese offense, And both US and China have nukes to use on each other But i dont think that china wants to Nuke us nor do i think China wants to nuke or bomb the livin daylight our Taiwan. Then what would china have when they did get the island.

My view on this is actually fairly straight forward. On the Taiwanese homeland they have only 30,000 active soldiers. With something like 30 active airfields, 8missile bases, 10 Naval bases, 4 Army bases. China at the moment has over 700missiles pointing at Taiwan.

That by my rough math is, 52 bases vs. 700missiles. So, 14missiles per-base? If China can upgrade these missiles, so they had better targeting that would cripple Taiwan’s defence. Also, before they would attack they would get submarines, etc in place to cripple the Navy. It would all happen in one, quick strike.

Not giving the rest of the world time to react.

globalsecurity.org...

America is also fairly weak around Taiwan. If China went on a ‘full offensive’ they’d not be able to hold them off for long, without needing reinforcements and I don’t think they’d risk loosing two aircraft carriers + what else they have near their.

AS for Nukes, doubt it would ever happen. China won’t use them, they just say they would - which could be enough to stop America from getting involved.

China could never invade mainland U.S. nor Russia, Japan, etc. Taiwan’s a small island, easy to hold and they could set up a defence on it within a day once they had conquered it.

China was also inexperienced during the Korean war. They still did very well during that. They are a very united society and remember China also has ‘the draft’, encase they ever need to go on a mass war. Lot of soldiers they could get from that. Give a gun and any invasion on their land would be ruined.

With US satelites and intel I think taiwan would at least be able to deal a good amount of damage to oncomin forces doesnt taiwan have missile capabilities to hit china? Or atleast sea ports where part of there navy is.

I dont know this for sure but would china face Guerila warfare like US is now in Iraq? and wouldnt that make it a unstabble economy for China. Couldnt US just sell Taiwan a few mini nukes or somethin to quell the aggression from China, and if china can take over the island why havent they already done so?

One thing here, NO U.S. F-15 pilot is going to go in thinking their aircraft is invincible. In Gulf War 1, the F-15 pilots had to pull some slick maneuvers to avoid being shot down by anti-aircraft fire. The Air Force lets the pilots these days be very aware that the F-15 is not the superior plane in terms of maneuverability.

[edit on 6-3-2005 by Broadsword20068]

Originally posted by zakattack
With US satelites and intel I think taiwan would at least be able to deal a good amount of damage to oncomin forces doesnt taiwan have missile capabilities to hit china? Or atleast sea ports where part of there navy is.

I dont know this for sure but would china face Guerila warfare like US is now in Iraq? and wouldnt that make it a unstabble economy for China. Couldnt US just sell Taiwan a few mini nukes or somethin to quell the aggression from China, and if china can take over the island why havent they already done so?

At the present moment Taiwan’s not independent of China. They actually factor into the Chinese economy, because of this they have no reason to invade.

Taiwan does have some missiles that could reach China, but not many. As far as I know, it doesn’t even hit 100. As for American satellites, I don’t think they can pick up the new Type 094, from what I’ve heard. So, all China would need to do, would be to get one of these near the Taiwanese Navy. Sink a few of the larger ships and let their fleet, do the rest of the damage.

As for America selling Nukes, the moment that happened China would invade before Taiwan would ever get one. It’d be similar to the Cuban missile crisis, but China would attack.

AS for “Guerila warfare” I actually doubt they would. The reason for this is, a lot of people in Taiwan want to reunite with the Mainland - especially since China has been moving more people over there, to give weight to the next vote in Taiwan in their favour. Also, people on the Mainland and vice versa have family there and they know, being caught fighting could cause problems for their family. This might stop it from happening.

Originally posted by Broadsword20068
Onething here, NO U.S. F-15 pilot is going to go in thinking their aircraft is invincible. In Gulf War 1, the F-15 pilots had to pull some slick maneuvers to avoid being shot down by anti-aircraft fire. The Air Force lets the pilots these days be very aware that the F-15 is not the superior plane in terms of maneuverability.

This is why I said, could not would and a lot of people grow arrogant. Especially 'new boys'. Just glad to see pilots are told they're not unbeatable, about time the public learns this as well. (From the view American people give off, on this bored and ones I know in real life.)

So say the next Election in Taiwan comes up what impact would that have on the united states if taiwan no longer wanted to be independant,
Does the US not realize that any Advanced military equipment they sell to taiwan could eventually get into chinese hands, thats stupid why would US do that?!?!
And i thought Taiwan wanted to be independant and that that why they elected the President they have no is because he was makin moves to delcare independancy

just to clear things up...

Taiwan currently has NO offensive missiles, in other words nothing that can hit the mainland.

They are currently negotiating with the US to change this however.

Originally posted by zakattack
So say the next Election in Taiwan comes up what impact would that have on the united states if taiwan no longer wanted to be independant,
Does the US not realize that any Advanced military equipment they sell to taiwan could eventually get into chinese hands, thats stupid why would US do that?!?!
And i thought Taiwan wanted to be independant and that that why they elected the President they have no is because he was makin moves to delcare independancy

If Taiwan stops wanting to be independent, it would cause them to stop buying weapons from America.

At the moment, America thinks this won’t happen so they’re willing to risk it on the basis they see a better outcome.

He was making moves, but China are now going to pass a law which will make it so they ‘have’ to go to war if Taiwan declared Independence. This might actually stop the President from doing it.

Originally posted by Lucretius
just to clear things up...

Taiwan currently has NO offensive missiles, in other words nothing that can hit the mainland.

They are currently negotiating with the US to change this however.

Ahh, fair enough. Thank you again. I had read one or two things claiming they did, but nothing major.

Edit: "Any practice of putting Taiwan directly or indirectly into the scope of Japan-U.S. security cooperation constitutes an encroachment on China's sovereignty and interference into China's internal affairs," Li told reporters in Beijing.

Link

[edit on 6-3-2005 by Odium]

Originally posted by Odium

Originally posted by Lucretius
just to clear things up...

Taiwan currently has NO offensive missiles, in other words nothing that can hit the mainland.

They are currently negotiating with the US to change this however.

Ahh, fair enough. Thank you again. I had read one or two things claiming they did, but nothing major.

[edit on 6-3-2005 by Odium]

Taiwan claimed they might strike the 3 gorges dam or other sensitive targets if China uses milltary force.
They assumed that they would aquire the capability from the US at some stage considering it was the US who wuggested the idea to them in the first place.

However an attack on the 3 gorges dam would be useless as nothing short of a nuclear device could even crack it.
At minimum the damn is 300 meters thick, designed to withstand earthquakes measuring 10 on the richter scale.
There is simply no conventional weaponry in the world today that could bring it down... let alone get to it in the first place.

Another ? US has bases in Japan right so why is china concerned about the US meddling in the affairs with japan, Ok China takeover Taiwan ok, China Takeover Japan no way it would happen US never allow it.

Originally posted by zakattack
Another ? US has bases in Japan right so why is china concerned about the US meddling in the affairs with japan, Ok China takeover Taiwan ok, China Takeover Japan no way it would happen US never allow it.

China would love to take over Japan and get them back for the last, 2000 years - but I don't see a way it could happen. Japan has the second largest defence budget, in the world. (America, 1st. China, 3rd.)

What China means is: "If America turn Taiwan into another Japan or try too, this will be counted as a hostile action." basically, China would invade Taiwan and probably blitz Japan then atempt to make peace.

Cornering the dragon

"Late last year, then secretary of state Colin Powell warned Taiwan not to seek independence and said that US policy favored its "peaceful reunification" with China." Interesting quote, from the above article.

This is worth a read as well. Written by a guy in Hong Kong, so he knows the view of the Chinese better than we do. =)

Another good article, Now im not for war in most cases but while the US is ahead wouldnt Kind of be smart to Engage in battle instead of waiting 10-15 yrs for them catchup, i think the less ground they have the better

what if they took over this country and decided well the country we took over originally had control of this country so we are going to take them to
and eventually start getting around to the US.

True they have an army to compete with maybe but would US stand for that

You can't just start wars because you have the advantage, not in the modern world anyway.

And it would be wrong to suggest that China or US are looking forward to war. They are not.

Taiwan has anti radiation missiles that can be used to hit Chinese coastal radar sites but those are protected by ground version of 730 and S-300s.

I doubt a missile would destroy 3 gorges damn, just look at the size and the thickness of the concrete. It needs to be HUGE, TITANIC sized to hold off the third largest river in the world. So what a missiles hits, its gonna destroy three meters of concrete? There would definitely be structural integrety problem but probably not instant and would only factor in over time and could be fixed, plus we have S-300s protecting 3 gorges dam.

as posted by Odium
China is pretty much on the same level as the top Russian fighters as well, until the Next Generation of Russian Aircraft come out.

I would have a tendency to agree, being that Russia is selling 'anything and everything' to the Chinese.
And don't mind me here, but I certainly hope that the Chinese pilots are getting more flight time than those Russian pilots. As of 2000, Russian pilots were averaging:

The average annual flying time was 10 to 16 hours for fighter pilots, 18 to 24 hours for pilots in ground-attack aircraft, 12 to 26 hours for bomber pilots, 20 hours for long-range aircraft pilots, and 44 to 60 hours for military transport pilots. Exceptions to this were the bomber, ground-attack, and reconnaissance pilots flying missions in Chechnya.

Reality Check: Russian Defense Minister says....(2003)

So America doesn’t actually have ‘best airforce’ as you put it, till the F-22 Raptor is in service and they have how many of those? 12 at the moment (as far as I know).

Sources will vary, but the active in service number at this current time is two times + what you have stated: close to 33-40.



seekerof

[edit on 6-3-2005 by Seekerof]

as posted by COWlan
So what a missiles hits, its gonna destroy three meters of concrete?

This may be of interest to you, COWlan?
US to sell Taiwan 40 AGM-65G missiles (2001)


What is the AGM-65G?
This might help?

The Maverick G model essentially has the same guidance system as the D, with some software modifications that track larger targets. The G model's major difference is its heavyweight penetrator warhead, while Maverick A, B and D models employ the shaped-charge warhead.

AGM-65 Maverick


Further clarification?

...Maverick AGM-65G and AGM-145C hard target capability cruise missiles all use advanced unitary penetrators (AUP-113, AUP-116, P31) or BROACH warheads with the mystery high density metal in alloy casings'.

US Used Nuclear Waste


And there are many other Earth Penetrating Weapons (EPWs) that could do the trick. A GBU-28 and GBU-37 tipped cruise missile could well work. These links might help?
Earth-Penetrating Weapons
AGM-86B - rocket assisted bunker "buster"
super bunker buster cruise missiles





seekerof

[edit on 6-3-2005 by Seekerof]

Has anyone even thought of the 1000's of Guerilla campaigns that would sprout up all over the states defending China... How many China Towns are in America? How many Chinese people live in America... This alone would severly dampen and dull and offensive operations attempted by America against China.

Tensions between the two giants has been on an up and down journey the last decade or so.

Does anyone remember the US Spy Plane that crash landed in China and the uproar that came from the US because China held the pilots for 2 days? This all occured while the US was selling advanced missile technology to Taiwan... Now reverse the situation... What would happen if a Chinese spy plane crash landed in China, at the same China was selling advanced missiles to Cuba... THAT WOULD BE WW3!!!

Originally posted by COWlan
Man, Taiwan, Taiwan's been a trouble maker for the last god like 400 years. Uprisings like once half a century and the dynastys would send troops and kick their butt.

Seekerof, you seem to know very little about nationalists, currently Nationalists are the ones who wish to reunite with mainland and the Pro-Unification side won by a slight majority a few month ago in the vote for parliament/senate (forgot which one is the one that Taiwan has).

Actually, most people in Taiwan wish to stay in status quo. That goes the same with the nationalists. they did the survey on this. I know it because thats where I came from. And by the way, the president of Taiwan is actually a Hitler in the making. His party is actually installing racism among the same race of people in order to gain political power. I remember seeing one election poster distributed by their party, it read: vote us, we're Taiwanese. Don't vote them, they are Chinese. I dunno man... Isnt it against the law to attack your political opponents based on ethnic background? Oh wait... They control the laws...