First look: Dems crush GOP in party registration

All a president like Trump does is make the pendulum swing back in the other direction faster than it would have normally. The constant lies, the constant taunts, the constant general jackasserry. His personality rubs most of the country the wrong way at this point. And let’s be honest, the presidential race is nothing more than a popularity contest now.

From my personal experience, almost no one I know voted in the last election. Now, pretty much everyone I know has registered as a Democrat, with several even working toward becoming Democrat politicians.

It’s going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people who believe that ATS and the online right wing blogosphere is representative of the country.

a reply to: underwerks

I'm starting to get super excited, myself! Only 4 more months to find out!

originally posted by: burdman30ott6
a reply to: underwerks

I'm starting to get super excited, myself! Only 4 more months to find out!

So am I!

a reply to: Irishhaf

EDIT to add: if the Democrats want a blue wave they need a platform that will pull in the independents, and unaffiliated so far they have failed in an epic fashion to sway those people not in a political party.

Why do you think people like Ocasio-Cortez are beating establishment Democrats? Just like the Tea Party drew in independents for the Right, this new wave of Sanders-style Democrats will do the same for the Left.

This isn't indicative of anything, however I can see why this would be a glimmer of hope to a leftist.

While these numbers are certainly good, many factors remain in actual voter blocs.

An interesting article that highlights similar issues, but on a local level, if anything, is indicative to the overall perceptions.

"As a cautionary tale, Goldford noted that in November 2010, Iowa Democrats had 44,601 more registered voters. Despite that advantage, Democrats lost the governor’s race and control of the Iowa House." (Murphy et al)

"It is now the job of Democrats and liberal organizations to remain in contact with those newly registered voters, sustain their interest and ensure they vote in this fall’s election. There is no guarantee they will vote, even though they are registered. And Democrats know their voters typically turn out worse in non-presidential elections."(Murphy et al).

Source:www.thegazette.com...

So, while you may boast about numbers, its doesn't dismiss the #walkaway ordeal that is quickly gaining steam.

Furthermore, as the local article states, many of the new registered voters hardly do vote even then, must be maintained by Democrat and liberal organizations, which is of any indication from recent feeds, not looking promising as the Dems have no platform.

All in all, a worthy attempt at trying to dismiss the #walkaway as a result of increased voter registration, no different then when pundits assumed hillary would have won from their polls. Many dynamics play into these further down the road and we shall see what ultimately happens when we cross that bridge 😏

I just want to add what I found crazy, was how many rural farmers from where I’m from in Kentucky have dropped Trump.

Usually at our 4th of July party it’s solid republican, everyone making fun of liberals, etc. But this year it was the complete opposite. Everyone had something bad or nasty to say about Trump.

You don’t mess with a mans soybeans.

a reply to: Krazysh0t
Not in Kentucky! Even the left-leaning Courier Journal had to run with a story when Democrat registration fell below 50% in the Commonwealth.

wfpl.org...

Independents are gaining ground in the Bluegrass state. Democrats are fleeing the party that put us right there with Illinois on the pension issue. The party is broke and they've run off the conservative wing of the Democrat party. Normal people just don't want to be identified with the current leadership of the party.

When your version of "Making America Great" is constantly talking trash on over half the country, making enemies of our allies, propping up the rest of his 1% pals, bickering on twitter like a 4th grade child that can't put down their cell phone, openly being an ass towards women, and running an ongoing electoral campaign of division... duh... people aren't gonna be psyched. Reveling in the division of our country is no way to lead the UNITED States or a party.

originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: Irishhaf

EDIT to add: if the Democrats want a blue wave they need a platform that will pull in the independents, and unaffiliated so far they have failed in an epic fashion to sway those people not in a political party.

Why do you think people like Ocasio-Cortez are beating establishment Democrats? Just like the Tea Party drew in independents for the Right, this new wave of Sanders-style Democrats will do the same for the Left.

She only won because she wasn't running against a Clinton.

Didn't register online, Have been registered for many years.

Didn't register online, Have been registered for many years.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
First look: Dems crush GOP in party registration

Too bad there isn't a 2018 US Elections forum. Ah well. I'll just post this here instead. So it looks like Axios collected data on party voter registrations up to today and Democrats are CRUSHING it.

Here's some interesting bits about why this is important:

Key numbers: Among the 31 states (plus D.C.) with party registration, there are nearly 12 million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents.

In 19 states (plus D.C.) there are more registered Democrats; in the remaining 12 there are more registered Republicans.

This can make all the difference. A quick look back to 2016 shows Trump won 11 of those 12 states with more Republican registered voters.

I know there is this idea of #walkaway trending here recently, but the hard stats of reality are saying that the blue ranks are swelling.

Honestly I think a lot of this is fabricated and fraud to justify stealing elections when the time comes. I honestly believe most Americans actually enjoy their freedoms, love guns and freedom of speech! I honestly dont believe Hilary had more votes then Trump, I would put money on it that most of her votes were from dead people and illegals. I honestly do not know too many people that like that woman little alone the democratic party. I would put my life on it right now that if we the people cleaned up DC ourselves and the media with honest people we would find majority of Americans loving America for what it was and not wanting to change anything in the constitution.

originally posted by: okrian
When your version of "Making America Great" is constantly talking trash on over half the country, making enemies of our allies, propping up the rest of his 1% pals, bickering on twitter like a 4th grade child that can't put down their cell phone, openly being an ass towards women, and running an ongoing electoral campaign of division... duh... people aren't gonna be psyched. Reveling in the division of our country is no way to lead the UNITED States or a party.

The division already started before Trump got in office. Allies or not, it's good to clean up the trash thats been leaching off the united states. Having Europe or Canada as an Ally is like having a couple friends at school that want you to pay for there lunch everyday and help with there home work but when you ask for the same thing they're not around nor will they help when they are but they B*itch and complain when you get tired of it and dont want to help them anymore. Then they brag about how their parents are better then yours but your the one always having to help pay for their lunch and do their homework.

registered voters to not nessiarily mean they will vote as the 2016 election showed this link is before trumps victory

www.politico.com...

The wave of new voters this year has dramatically favored the Democratic Party, according to TargetSmart, which analyzed the expected party preferences of the new registrants in 15 of the first- and second-tier presidential battlegrounds. Overall, TargetSmart found that 42.6 percent of the new voters registered this year lean Democratic, and only 29 percent lean Republican (28.4 percent lean independent). Worse for the GOP, registration trended more Democratic in every single battleground state, from a small margin in Georgia (4.3 percentage points) to massive leads in diversifying states like Colorado (29.3 points), Nevada (20.4 points) and North Carolina (9.2 points). And since June 1, the trend has been even more stark. In Virginia, TargetSmart’s data show only 11.7 percent of new registrants lean Republican — versus nearly 50 percent expected to lean Democratic. Across all 15 battlegrounds, the Democratic advantage is nearly 22 percentage points since June 1. “As we cross the threshold of 200 million registered voters for the first time, there are signs of an ever diversifying electorate, and one that is more favorable to Democratic candidates,” Bonier said.

all the signs pointed to democratic victory but we know how that ended ,as other members have said independents that change their vote from election to election are the demographic to watch not which party has more registered voters but who the independents are siding with . note the article cited 200 million registered voters but the entire turn out of the 2016 election was 137.5 million meaning roughly 62.5 million registered voters didnt vote compared to registered voters and this is a midterm election which traditionally has lower turn out compared to presidential elections www.pewresearch.org... source for above numbers

www.pbs.org... pbs take on voter turn out in last election and who stayed home who built their base and who lost votes no clear winners in either side

“I think there’s warning signs in both parties,” Becker said. “Obviously Democrats are losing votes and Republicans aren’t really building their base. The numbers they’re getting are holding pretty consistent. That should be troubling when the electorate is on the older side.”

note they dont bring up independents which i think is the larger growing faction of voters compared to the two major parties

fivethirtyeight.com... compare this to the link from before the election 200 million registered but a good deal stayed home

www.pewresearch.org... pew research on why voter turn out drops during midterms (traditionally)

Voter turnout regularly drops in midterm elections, and has done so since the 1840s. In 2008, for instance, 57.1% of the voting-age population cast ballots — the highest level in four decades — as Barack Obama became the first African American elected president. But two years later only 36.9% voted in the midterm election that put the House back in Republican hands. For Obama’s re-election in 2012, turnout rebounded to 53.7%.

www.centerforpolitics.org... has a bunch of graphs showing how mid term elections turn out has dropped significantly since 2010

www.fairvote.org... last link with more graphs but again shows that registered voters does not necessarily = voter turn out if that makes sense

now to be fair both sides bases seem much more energized then usual,Republicans happy over packing lower federal courts two scotus picks so far and recent scotus rulings in their favor to name a few, and democrats pretty much frantically trying to stop anything trump wants to do or try to do but have seen progress in special elections since his election so could be a wild card so we may see higher turn out this election but we will have to wait tell midterms to find out

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: MisterSpock

That's cool. I'll just go ahead and report you for voter fraud then.

But then , wouldnt that destroy the Democratic voter base ?
You got to think ahead..
Welcome back. Been a while...

a reply to: underwerks

It’s going to be a rude awakening for a lot of people who believe that ATS and the online right wing blogosphere is representative of the country.

Do you "prophesy" ?
That was a theoretical statement , stated as factual.
You must have a good "inside line"
Learn the difference in verbiage between stating a "future" fact and projection.

a reply to: Krazysh0t


Your Source has West Virginia Blue. lol. They will go Trump again. I would bet on it. Even their Democrat Senator Manchin has to be for Trump just to get elected back to the Senate.

ETA. West Virginia was a democrat state when Trump won it. It had more registered democrats than republicans. See where I am going with this. This is not a sign that the democrats will win. Trump blew Political Science out of the water.

Why would anybody vote Democrat right now?

To fight against the most corrupt, fascist, authoritarian government in US history? How the hell can't people see that?

Do you think it's good to sell out national security to get 500 billion dollars from China, deport grandmothers, destroy the environment and give rich corrupt people a gigantic tax cut that will require obliterating spending on real people???

a reply to: CB328

To fight against the most corrupt, fascist, authoritarian government in US history?

But Obama is already gone and Clinton didn't win. That shoots that statement in the foot.

a reply to: underwerks

All a president like Trump does is make the pendulum swing back in the other direction faster than it would have normally. The constant lies, the constant taunts, the constant general jackasserry. His personality rubs most of the country the wrong way at this point. And let’s be honest, the presidential race is nothing more than a popularity contest now.

That is a perfect summary of what's driving the mid-term elections this year.

I believe that most of the electorate have no interest in politics. All they really see right now is the immaturity that Mr. Trump constantly has on display. I think a great many people see Donald Trump as a bully, and we are programmed to disapprove of bullying behavior. So, in quite a few states, people are going to register their disapproval by taking the blue pill this time around.

I predict a more-or-less blue wave in November. This will then be followed by 2 years of absolute gridlock. But there won't be enough votes for an impeachment; Donald Trump will at least finish his full term.

-dex