First look: Dems crush GOP in party registration

I know this news probably comes as a surprise to the echo chamber that ATS has become, but anyone that has actually followed the events of the past 1.5 years will not be surprised.

If you look at all of the special elections that have occurred since Trump was elected, Dems are overperforming, on average, by 17 points. Now obviously there's no guarantee this trend will hold in November. If it does though it gives the Dems pretty much every swing state. Which would be enough to give them control of Congress.

And it's not even just that more Dems are turning out to vote. They're turning out to vote for father Left candidates. We saw this in Virginia during our state elections and we just saw it in New York as well.

I even called this back in 2016 after Trump was elected. While the Right was gloating for months on end I warned them that if they don't try to compromise they're going to be the '10 Dems. And that's just what we're seeing now. Trump's rise to power combined with the actions of the Republicans in Congress (and let's not forget Trump's constant sophomoric trolling) have galvanized the Left.

But not only that we're starting to see the emergence of the Left's version of the Tea Party. That's going to draw in more of the fringe element that would normally vote third party.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

If we look at all the special elections (which generally have a lower turnout rate than midterms) Dems have about an 80% retention rate compared to 2016. Republicans are in the 50s.

a reply to: burdman30ott6

You know that.

I know that.

Some don't even consider these things.

originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: burdman30ott6

If we look at all the special elections (which generally have a lower turnout rate than midterms) Dems have about an 80% retention rate compared to 2016. Republicans are in the 50s.

2 of them have even been for federal offices!

Seriously, spare me the local politics "overperforming" shuck and jive on this topic. Local politics don't follow the same standards of partisanship, which is why, for example, the city of Anchorage frequently has a liberal mayor despite being the largest city by far in a massively red state. Voters are more willing to vote for someone they know and like as a person despite that person's political positions on the local level than they are on the federal level. The big blue wave isn't going to happen, but feel free to celebrate a few state houses flipping blue this November.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

Oh look!

It's the "blue wave".




Bookmarking this thread for after the elections.

It is just common sense that the Democratic Party would get an influx of passionate anti-Trump/anti-Republican voters. Just like the Republican Party got an influx of passionate anti-Obama/anti-Democrat voters. It is what usually happens. The ebb and flow of American politics. It is only the Kool-aide drinkers that think an election victory automatically equals the death of the party that lost, and an infinite reign for the party that won. History has proven this wrong time and time again.

However, I don't think it will mean anything in the upcoming election cycle. I think it won't really come into play until after Trumps second term(which I think he will get). Independents decide elections. Independents seem to not like one party rule. So until the Independents flip sides again, which historically happens after a two term president. I don't know if an influx of new registered voters will mean much.

But I am sure partisan hacks on both sides will try to spin this in their favor.

a reply to: MisterSpock

oh please, register my mom... ya know the dead get a free get out of death card to go vote, right. she's told me that if I can get her registered, she will jump on my husband's arse and make sure he stops by to say hi to me this year!!!

originally posted by: dawnstar
a reply to: MisterSpock

oh please, register my mom... ya know the dead get a free get out of death card to go vote, right. she's told me that if I can get her registered, she will jump on my husband's arse and make sure he stops by to say hi to me this year!!!

You have a very interesting family dynamic, dawnstar.

Yea not buying it, about 2 years ago nearly 50% of all registered voters were independent, unaffiliated or third party.

So all of a sudden we are to believe that the democrats are surging ahead in registered voters... nah not buying it.

EDIT to add: if the Democrats want a blue wave they need a platform that will pull in the independents, and unaffiliated so far they have failed in an epic fashion to sway those people not in a political party.

Trump very well could be a snake oil salesman, but the democrats platform of open borders 2nd amendment restrictions, and I hate trump, and raise your taxes are not going to sweep them back into power.

a reply to: avgguy

Because the republicans are a doormat for trumps every whim and that needs to stop before we're flying a hammer and cycle flag over the whitehouse.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

Source on that? The OP source was debunked earlier, this isnt a poll on only NEW registrations.


I submit that 90% of registrations are re-ups wealthy leftists who moved from California to Colorado and Texas. They blew the arse out of Cali and they know it.

"Keep America Great" 2020

a reply to: Sillyolme

You have some serious derangement if you think a “hammer and *sickle” have anything to do with trump.

originally posted by: avgguy
a reply to: Sillyolme

You have some serious derangement if you think a “hammer and *sickle” have anything to do with trump.

She clearly said cycle. Perhaps Trump will usher in a new era of fitness and alternate transportation and she's scared of chaffing.

originally posted by: avgguy
a reply to: Sillyolme

You have some serious derangement if you think a “hammer and *sickle” have anything to do with trump.

trump's pals with Putin and Putin was a KGB guy....how much more hammer and sickle can you get.

a reply to: Irishhaf
Many states do not require you to register to a party. Virginia does not require it. If it's a primary you tell them when you get there which party primary you want and you get the ballot with those candidates. In most states it's optional to have to register an affiliation. Of course you are free to vote for whom ever you choose whether you've stated an affiliation or not. So I don't see how anyone could come up with fifty percent are independent unless that means unaffiliated.

a reply to: Sillyolme

your right I made everything up, obviously the country is a majority of democrat voters, cause republicans have never been in charge.


ETA: I am not going to bother posting links to the information so people can pick apart who provided the information without actually looking at the information.

a reply to: olaru12

It’s scary you two are able to vote, luckily mine will cancel yours out.

originally posted by: olaru12

originally posted by: avgguy
a reply to: Sillyolme

You have some serious derangement if you think a “hammer and *sickle” have anything to do with trump.

trump's pals with Putin and Putin was a KGB guy....how much more hammer and sickle can you get.

Define "pals," please. We treat the fact that Trump isn't openly hostile towards Russia as some manner of evidence of the two being besties, while utterly ignoring the fact that the rank and file in DC have longstanding actual relationships (political as well as business and, seemingly personal) with Russia's premier. thehill.com...
The narrative is ridiculously excessive.

a reply to: Sillyolme

VA does if you vote in the primaries.

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: avgguy

Because the republicans are a doormat for trumps every whim and that needs to stop before we're flying a hammer and cycle flag over the whitehouse.

I dunno, I think it looks pretty cool