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originally posted by: Arbitrageur
It's perfectly logical.
originally posted by: Jay-morris
This just does not make any logical sense at all. The witnesses said it was a huge craft travelling slow and low. These jets would have been fast. If they were high up, the formation would have been small. If they were low, the noise would be loud and they would fly by quickly.
Goes completely against what the witnesess saw. I do not believe the witnesses are talking about the same thing this guy saw. Just does not make sense.
If each one of those lights is a single airplane, each light is small at that altitude, but look how far apart the lights are in the formation. The lights are tiny given the relatively huge size of the formation relative to the small size of the lights, giving the illusion of a large craft, many many many times larger than any one individual plane. This is not a blue eagles air show where the planes are flying a tight formation wingtip to wingtip, there is a fair amount of space between the aircraft.
I don't see why you don't think this is logical but it makes perfect sense to me.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
a reply to: Jay-morris
I see a serious problem with your logic. When a witness says they saw lights there's no reason to doubt that claim, but when the person tells you they don't know what the lights were but they can tell you they were "close" or "far away", you are not applying either logic or well known data sets which document how inaccurate such distance perceptions often are, and moreover that it's very very common for witnesses to report distant unknown lights as much closer than they really are.
A very common occurrence which is well documented is that witnesses will say the light came down just on the other side of that hill a few hundred yards away when we know what they saw was a meteor hundreds of times farther away then they say. This isn't a rare event, it's common and well documented. The only time a witness might be able to judge the distance of lights at night on an aircraft is if the aircraft is known, and even in that case it takes an experienced and knowledgeable observer with training, but if the lights are an unknown object or part of an unknown object then there's no way to accurately judge the distance. So if you want to be logical, then accept that or do some research until you learn that it's true from your research, then you will know how unreliable witness estimates of distance are of unknown lights at night.
What about it tells you it's not huge? If it is a formation of planes which it almost certainly is in the video, the distance between the furthest lights is far larger than any known aircraft which is pretty much what the witnesses described, it was far larger than any known aircraft. That's huge!!
originally posted by: Jay-morris
You still have not answered my question. Going the video the guy released, they are pretty high up. If they were low they would have gone passed within a blink of an eye, with sound.
Looking at the plane formation, also indicates that the formation would not have looked huge in the sky, far from it.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
What about it tells you it's not huge? If it is a formation of planes which it almost certainly is in the video, the distance between the furthest lights is far larger than any known aircraft which is pretty much what the witnesses described, it was far larger than any known aircraft. That's huge!!
originally posted by: Jay-morris
You still have not answered my question. Going the video the guy released, they are pretty high up. If they were low they would have gone passed within a blink of an eye, with sound.
Looking at the plane formation, also indicates that the formation would not have looked huge in the sky, far from it.
Anyway perceptions of the distance of unknown lights at night are unreliable and you're trying to put too much weight on that when we know people don't and can't report that reliably.
Well consider this, I mentioned the Yukon case as a means of calibrating the accuracy of witness statements on unknown lights at night. Here's what they said about the apparent distance and we can calculate the actual distance since we now know what the object was:
originally posted by: Jay-morris
I have explained why. We will just have to agree to disagree.
Can we at least agree we have here a documented case of the distance estimate by the witness being inaccurate by an almost inconceivably wide margin? The witness said the distance was approximately 300 yards when it was approximately 254,669 yards. Not only the distance, but other characteristics of the event were misperceived, dramatically, like the object did not hover and that link contains many other misperceptions some of which relate directly to the Phoenix lights case like reports it blocked out the stars when we know it didn't do that.
Report: the UFO was hovering approximately 300 yards in front of the observer. "Hynek Classification: CE1" (Close Encounter of the First Kind).
Reality: the distance to the re-entering booster was approximately 233 km (145 miles), so this was not a "close encounter." At no time did it stop, or hover.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
Well consider this, I mentioned the Yukon case as a means of calibrating the accuracy of witness statements on unknown lights at night. Here's what they said about the apparent distance and we can calculate the actual distance since we now know what the object was:
originally posted by: Jay-morris
I have explained why. We will just have to agree to disagree.
"Top Ten" UFO Case - Yukon, Canada, 1996 - BUSTED!
Can we at least agree we have here a documented case of the distance estimate by the witness being inaccurate by an almost inconceivably wide margin? The witness said the distance was approximately 300 yards when it was approximately 254,669 yards. Not only the distance, but other characteristics of the event were misperceived, dramatically, like the object did not hover and that link contains many other misperceptions some of which relate directly to the Phoenix lights case like reports it blocked out the stars when we know it didn't do that.
Report: the UFO was hovering approximately 300 yards in front of the observer. "Hynek Classification: CE1" (Close Encounter of the First Kind).
Reality: the distance to the re-entering booster was approximately 233 km (145 miles), so this was not a "close encounter." At no time did it stop, or hover.
originally posted by: Paddyofurniture
originally posted by: NoCorruptionAllowedThat's hilarious. You aren't the first wannabe debunker who actually thinks he knows better than witnesses who had a mass sighting, when you didn't see anything yourself, saying that you know better than they do without seeing, than those who saw it close up. I have heard James McGaha use that exact explanation before and couldn't believe the blatant arrogance of those words. Only you and other esteemed citizens in that special circle understand human perception, so everyone else is essentially blind and uneducated. It's only your opinion not based on anything credible, as opposed to actual real witnesses who all saw something inexplicable that night early on. You say there are people arguing that we can trust everything these witnesses say to be indisputable fact, but I have never even once heard anyone make that demand about a single case. I had the opportunity to personally investigate the phoenix case since I lived there at the time, and ask lots of questions of all kinds of witnesses, and because of that, know they weren't lying, and I know they saw what they say they saw because their testimony matched. That has nothing at all to do with little grey guys, only that there was an event where people saw something real, and nobody knows for sure where it came from or why it was there. That's all.
originally posted by: ArbitrageurAs did the 30 plus witnesses in Yukon, saw a very humongous craft that filled most of the sky as it passed over, and they said it made no sound, except that's not what they really saw in either event. It's what they think they saw, but they don't understand human perception, and neither do the people arguing that we can trust everything these witnesses say to be indisputable fact.
originally posted by: NoCorruptionAllowed a reply to: Arbitrageur Except the early event in Phoenix people saw a very humongous craft that was very low in altitude but filled most of the sky as it passed over, and they said it made no sound.
The belief systems which presume human observation is fallible are far more grounded in scientific verification than belief systems which presume human observations are not so fallible.
originally posted by: Jay-morris
If you want to disregard witness testimony, then Yes, it was a re-entering booster. If you want to keep on throwing up words "their imagination" to fit your own belief system, then yes, re-entering booster.
This is a diversion; that is not the case being discussed and I have no idea what happened in that case.
Reminds me of the coyne helicopter ufo incident and the rather stupid explanation that it was a meteorite Even though that goes against what the witnesses saw, on the ground and in the air.
I think you have some very distorted perception here. It's all about finding the truth. It's unusual for a top ten UFO case to be solved with this much scientific certainty so yes he's happy about that and if you are distorting this into your twisted belief that this somehow makes the rocket booster not the truth then you will never know the real truth yourself, either about the rocket booster or the range of fallibility in human perception.
But more telling for me when you read the comments of the article you linked, is that gloating. Which tells me, this is not about finding the truth, this is about people who have puts themselves into groups and they would rather be right than wrong. And this is part of the problem.
Actually I listened very carefully to the witness testimony in both cases, and then put it through my filter based on scientific evidence of what type of information tends to be reliable and what type of information tends to be unreliable. Anything about the distance of unknown lights in the sky tends to be unreliable, but if the witness says they perceived 5 or 6 lights then I see no reason to doubt that they saw 5 or 6 lights.
The point is, these people completely disregard witness testimony to come to their own conclusion. We see it time and time again. And they would rather be right, than wrong, which means they are running on belief, just as much as the believers
originally posted by: Lathroper
a reply to: Jay-morris
You are beating a dead horse! Here you are, repeating yourself ad infinitum. You haven't offered anything concrete to your boring argument. You can't go by what witnesses saw, Arbitrageur has tried to knock some thinking sense into you and you resist logic, thinking that your words are worth reading.
Let me tell you one thing, it doesn't matter what "your" witnesses claim they saw there was no other aircraft in the sky that day or night other than military planes. Now, put up evidence or move on. You haven't added anything new to the thread and you're not earning any points with a baseless, empty argument. Arbitrageur is to be complimented on his patience.
It's not really the topic of the thread but since you say "humans make lousy witnesses" only seems to apply to UFOs, you couldn't be more wrong. Of the over 350 DNA exonerations in the United States, over 70% of those involved witness misidentification, and some of those people were on death row for crimes they didn't even commit!
originally posted by: Jay-morris
a reply to: Arbitrageur
Sorry, but we have had some pathetic explanations, from this so called "humans make lousy witnesses" This only seems to apply to ufos mind you.
20 of 353 people exonerated served time on death row...
70%: Involved eyewitness misidentification
Eyewitness testimony is fickle and, all too often, shockingly inaccurate
IN 1984 KIRK BLOODSWORTH was convicted of the rape and murder of a nine-year-old girl and sentenced to the gas chamber—an outcome that rested largely on the testimony of five eyewitnesses. After Bloodsworth served nine years in prison, DNA testing proved him to be innocent. Such devastating mistakes by eyewitnesses are not rare, according to a report by the Innocence Project, an organization affiliated with the Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law at Yeshiva University that uses DNA testing to exonerate those wrongfully convicted of crimes.
originally posted by: Arbitrageur
It's not really the topic of the thread but since you say "humans make lousy witnesses" only seems to apply to UFOs, you couldn't be more wrong. Of the over 350 DNA exonerations in the United States, over 70% of those involved witness misidentification, and some of those people were on death row for crimes they didn't even commit!
originally posted by: Jay-morris
a reply to: Arbitrageur
Sorry, but we have had some pathetic explanations, from this so called "humans make lousy witnesses" This only seems to apply to ufos mind you.
DNA Exonerations in the United States
20 of 353 people exonerated served time on death row...
70%: Involved eyewitness misidentification
You're doing a lot more to display your ignorance of the science of human perception than to defend the eyewitnesses.
Why Science Tells Us Not to Rely on Eyewitness Accounts
Eyewitness testimony is fickle and, all too often, shockingly inaccurate
IN 1984 KIRK BLOODSWORTH was convicted of the rape and murder of a nine-year-old girl and sentenced to the gas chamber—an outcome that rested largely on the testimony of five eyewitnesses. After Bloodsworth served nine years in prison, DNA testing proved him to be innocent. Such devastating mistakes by eyewitnesses are not rare, according to a report by the Innocence Project, an organization affiliated with the Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law at Yeshiva University that uses DNA testing to exonerate those wrongfully convicted of crimes.
Please just stop embarrassing yourself with your overconfidence in eyewitnesses and your silly claim the problem only applies to UFOs. It only serves to put your ignorance on display.
It must have been meteorite debris--as I saw it landed somewhere behind my neighbor's house.
The light was moving toward the earth and it looked like whatever caused the light would have hit the ground a few hundred yards from my location. The light looked like a firework (roman candle) that was descending rather than ascending toward the sky.
I was driving east on I94, light came from behind, over car, and down into sight in windshield. Looked like a flare gun, but green in color, slow, droped to about the tree line then flashed bright and was gone. The flash appreared to be near the service road in Fort Custer Battle Creek, north side of I94 between Galesburg and Battle Creek. Light was traveling NE in a downward direction.
Similar time as the sightings in northern MI. But this was close by, 150 feet or so from my car.
It seemed very close!
My husband and I were driving west in our car when we observed this. At a glance, it looked close above treetop and almost resembled a flaming 55 gal drum moving across the sky. Because it was unusual, I noted the time. To me it looked close enough to the ground to have landed still lit, based on my observation of it's trajectory. I looked today to see if anyone had reported something strange locally and saw reports of sightings in Michigan, which is why I am reporting this.
My purpose, as I have said before, is to collect everything that is known on the subject of British Meteorites ; to establish by means of copious references every fact relative to each recorded fall ; and to inquire into all doubtful instances, so as to ascertain, if possible, whether their authenticity can be proved, and to expunge them from the list if they can be shown to be the results of errors.
The doubtful instances of meteoric falls may be classed under four general heads :-
1st. A meteor has been seen apparently to fall, and a search has been made where it seemed to descend. The results of those searches have included nodules of pyrite, fragments of scoriae, hematite, and ordinary pebbles, all distinctly terrestrial, but which have been described as "Meteorites"
Update on the Michigan fireball - this image shows the trajectory of the meteor as determined by the eyewitness accounts posted on the American Meteor Society Website. Our analysis yields a similar result, and we have calculated that this was a very slow moving meteor - speed of about 28,000 miles per hour. This fact, combined with the brightness of the meteor (which suggests a fairly big space rock at least a yard across), shows that the object penetrated deep into the atmosphere before it broke apart (which produced the sounds heard by many observers). It is likely that there are meteorites on the ground near this region - one of our colleagues at JSC has found a Doppler weather radar signature characteristic of meteoritic material falling to earth.
Pieces of an asteroid lying near Detroit? Let's see what the meteorite hunters find.
The ability to judge sizes is acquired by a painstakingly, long chain of experience only. Our judgement of sizes and what is basically the same thing, our sense of perspective, will be the more accurate the more objects of comparison we have, at various distances. Whenever such objects are practically absent, for instance, on the high seas, it will be very difficult to judge sizes and distances. On the high seas or on a barren plain, distances are nearly always greatly underestimated.
The safty board concluded that a contributing factor to the mishap on that dark night was a sensory illusion causing height and altitude misperception relative to the runway approach lights resulting in a crash 1.5 km from the landing threshold
Human subjects viewed round stimuli located equidistantly in the horizontal and vertical planes of vision under conditions where presumed cues to size were present and where they were systematically eliminated. Two experiments revealed a consistent tendency for the horizon object to be judged the closer. Cues introduced reduced the effect.