Is the Su-57 project effectively toast?

The Kremlin’s new state armament plan, which will run from 2018-2027, will continue modernization of the Russian Aerospace Forces. However, while Russia will continue to buy modern combat aircraft such as the Sukhoi Su-35S Flanker-E air superiority fighter and the Su-34 Fullback bomber, Moscow is not likely to make large purchases of the fifth-generation Su-57 PAK-FA stealth fighter until after 2027.

“The Su-57 is not expected to enter into serial production until upgraded engines are ready, which is unlikely to happen until 2027,” Center for Naval Analyses senior research scientist Dmitry Gorenburg wrote in a new PONARS Policy Memo. “Over the next eight years, Russia will continue to purchase small numbers of these planes for testing.”

warisboring.com...

There are a few ways of viewing this.

A. The above is wrong. Possible, but...

B. The Russians really are in trouble financially and they have decided the pak-fa/Su-57 is an acceptable casualty in the medium term but plan to return to it once the rubles are flowing again. We already know they are postponing the bomber replacement/Pak-da and the latest boomer needs more dinero AND the t-14 tank has been vastly scaled back for its buy as well.

C. The Russians are really choking on the new engine and other tech needed for a fifth gen fighter. It has been a while since they developed all of the above from scratch for a fourth gen, never mind the challenges of the 5th.

D. The Russians MIGHT gave started viewing the Su-57 as too little too late and could be looking to restart with a new fighter or their equivalent of the pca rather than waste resources on a dead project walking. This is purely speculation on my part though and even I doubt this is the case.

Honestly, I think its mostly b with folding into that. YMMV.

The engine problems arent going away..

If Russia is selling their oil in Dollars, i doubt they are doing that bad.

Personally i think the SU 57 does a good job with the engines it uses now. I dont think it is the real reason they are scaling down or giving the impression that they are scaling down.

Personally i think the SU 57 is to advanced for the job it is set up to do when it comes to ground support and communications. The SU 57 lose much of its advantages if it cant communicate with other ground systems do to its technology.

originally posted by: anzha

The Kremlin’s new state armament plan, which will run from 2018-2027, will continue modernization of the Russian Aerospace Forces. However, while Russia will continue to buy modern combat aircraft such as the Sukhoi Su-35S Flanker-E air superiority fighter and the Su-34 Fullback bomber, Moscow is not likely to make large purchases of the fifth-generation Su-57 PAK-FA stealth fighter until after 2027.

“The Su-57 is not expected to enter into serial production until upgraded engines are ready, which is unlikely to happen until 2027,” Center for Naval Analyses senior research scientist Dmitry Gorenburg wrote in a new PONARS Policy Memo. “Over the next eight years, Russia will continue to purchase small numbers of these planes for testing.”

warisboring.com...

There are a few ways of viewing this.

A. The above is wrong. Possible, but...

B. The Russians really are in trouble financially and they have decided the pak-fa/Su-57 is an acceptable casualty in the medium term but plan to return to it once the rubles are flowing again. We already know they are postponing the bomber replacement/Pak-da and the latest boomer needs more dinero AND the t-14 tank has been vastly scaled back for its buy as well.

C. The Russians are really choking on the new engine and other tech needed for a fifth gen fighter. It has been a while since they developed all of the above from scratch for a fourth gen, never mind the challenges of the 5th.

D. The Russians MIGHT gave started viewing the Su-57 as too little too late and could be looking to restart with a new fighter or their equivalent of the pca rather than waste resources on a dead project walking. This is purely speculation on my part though and even I doubt this is the case.

Honestly, I think its mostly b with folding into that. YMMV.

My bet is on B. Uncle Vlad has been trying to restore Russia to it's Soviet posture. There's a reason that didn't work in the long run, and in the long run it won't work again. They just don't have the economy to keep up with the US and China in terms of military buildup. They're not even in the top 10 in terms of overall GDP, last I checked.

a reply to: anzha
> Name is "Goremburg"
>Studied at Harvard lived in the US
>Has no relation to the project or works with the Russian defense industry

OK What I am finding really funny russia-insider.com... "This leads to another important caveat regarding the T-50: many of its capabilities are planned-for rather than extant. The AESA radar is still undergoing testing. The current crop of PAK FAs is equipped AL-41F1 turbofans which are fuel inefficient and produce insufficient thrust, so the plan is to replace them with superior Izdeliye 30 turbofans once they finish development—which may take as long as 2027." What I find more amusing about this article, "The T-50 does boast a modern Infra-Red Search and Track (IRST) system with a maximum fifty-kilometer detection range" Maximum 50km range????? Even the SU-35 IRST has a 90km max range why the down side.....There are multiple Russian insider 2016 articles,(I believe I saw another one than this one saying it might take 2027) They have not interviewed anyone in the industry that I see in the article about the 2027 date or the 50km range even AUS airpower says its a 70 nautical mile range for their IRST.....Who the hell should we believe?

Basically this news is about a year and a month old. Now Gorenburg states this than every western source follows pursuit of some news that is over a year old is now a new thing.

russia-insider.com... "Moreover the 9th prototype, to be completed this year, will be the first to be finally fitted with the new Izdeliye-30 engine"

OK the prototypes I am assuming will be operational by 2020 since tests on the izdelie-30 are being conducted as we speak. So regardless most T-50s will be equipped with the A-engine. What about that 9th prototype after tests are successful? Will it basically role out with this engine by 2020 once they are planning to state the SU-57s operational by 2019-2020? www.nextbigfuture.com... 12 operational by or deliverd by 2019.....Russia obviously has only 12 SU-57 prototypes but the 9th prototype is undergoing tests with the izdelie 30......So does that mean that if the 9th prototype is flying successfully with this engine does that basically declare the engine ready but not to the point of it being in mass production???????????

a reply to: wewuzkangz

There are several possibilities.

1. The new engines are not performing as well as they ought to be, necessitating either fixes or a redesign.

2. The engines might be great prototypes but there are concerns over manufacturing them in an assembly line.

3. The Indians pulling out if the fgfa, or that threat, has now helped squelch the final developments for the su-57 when combined with the sanctions Russia is now dealing with.

The Russians are in record as stating they are reducing and postponing their Su-57 buys as it is. And they gave stated they are buying other aircraft instead. Those previous statements with the new interpretation of the new procurement plan makes things look bad for the su-57 in a big way.

a reply to: anzha
I have heard the same 2027 story on Russia insider. Rather if they are buying other aircraft they already have 12 prototypes latest sources says only those 12 prototypes will be the purchased aircraft. russiandefpolicy.blog... I have read this and other sources stating the same thing no mention of cut downs though I would like to know why Gorenburgs opinion is relevant or where he has came with that conclusion? "The Su-57 is not expected to enter into serial production until upgraded engines are ready, which is unlikely to happen until 2027." Yes I will assume this is true since I am having a hard time trying to find the 2027 armament plan anywhere directly from the Russians(besides the 2018-2025 plan which does not speak of reducing SU-57s) than some US senior analyst that does not show where that information came from other than writing it himself.. so what about the ones with the A-engines. Funny thing is I read his and I read Gorenburgs there are similarities between in the rubble numbers with the 2025 and 2027 armament plans.

To make this easier where did Gorenburg draw the SU-57 conclusion? I cant find the same armament plan dates anywhere in Russian websites or on google other than the 2018-2025 dates? Don't get me wrong there are random web articles I see that say the new engine wont be in serial production with SU-57s by 2025 or 2027? Than this goes back to the 9th prototype rather if it will still be using the engine if successful or not if it is than its a budget issue.

I think the issue might be there engines they are going from a 3,500km range to a 5,000km engine which by default sounds like an ADVENT engine because that is a more than 35% increase in range when requirement is 30% increase, less moving parts and a 30% weight reduction are its specs. F-X is said to have this engine currently in developement aviationweek.com... I wont be surprised that the Russians are having a hard time shoving this engine on their SU-57. But since they have only plans of just producing 12 aircraft with their old engines I will be standing on my own head if they had that 9th prototype remain with the izdelie-30 engine which is basically like the russians saying "if we had the US military spending or a decent economy we would be mass producing 6th gen engines about now at a earlier time than having the 12 remaining prototypes be our only production of 12 aircraft by 2019."

a reply to: anzha

russiamil.wordpress.com...


The Russians themselves are now rolling back the total number of Su-57s they will be procuring between now and 2027. The total, according to the Russians, will not exceed 60 Su-57s by 2027. That's the equivalent of less than 7 per year for the next 9 years.

This would strongly imply two bits.

1. There is still more to work on for the Su-57 and the Russians are not going to go with concurrency for their procurement (good for them).

2. The Russians are seriously lacking in funds.

Both, I feel at this point, were pretty much the conventional wisdom outside of some very pro Russian posters.

It might also imply there is a significant problem with the manufacturing processes associated with the Su-57.

a reply to: anzha

Hasn't there been a lot of problems with manufacturing for parts in Russia like the sane component made several different ways?

a reply to: Woody510

The SU-34 manufacturing has been a nightmare. No two birds were wired or built the same. At least for a time.

Im wondering if they are waiting for other countries to get ahead in engine tech before they pilfer it..

a reply to: Blackfinger

They're almost certainly waiting for the new engine for the Su-57 to mature some at least.

The Russians have very solid R&D given their industrial and technical base, and a history of producing great aircraft. But for 5th gen, they are being pushed to new levels of manufacturing tolerances for the skin, and overall assembly standards as well as the technical challenges for the engines and avionics. Whilst they are enjoying a higher oil price for now, that has a fair bit to do with a weak USD as well as oil demand, and the price is now $65/pb, not the $110 when Russian could afford massive defence spending. And Indiai's participation (i.e. subsidy) with the derivative FGFA is still on a knife's edge, and even if something is salvaged, it will be on very different terms less favourable to Russia.

Whether it was the F-22, or the F-35, seems 5th gen planes are a lot tough to realise than people expected...

www.ruaviation.com...


The Russians are reporting they have not yet even signed the contract for the next set of 12 Su-57s. They are to be preproduction units, when the contract is finally signed, not final production versions. This sounds a lot like the Russians are still going through EMD and this is the new updated versions of the bird. The soonest those birds would start arriving is now 2019.

Interestingly, 10 of the 12 previously built prototype birds are in testing. No official word as to what is going on with two of them.

HOWEVER!

The bird with the new engines has not flown since the initial flight. That would indicate there are nontrivial problems to me with the engines. Anything but a success. Am I wrong?

Flying is one thing..Flying to its full potential is another.Maybe not enough speed or any other systems might be not at 100% yet.

a reply to: Blackfinger

The problem is the new engine has flown a second time period. That means there are issues.

Maybe they need reengineer the R-15-300..I miss the Foxbat

a reply to: Blackfinger

Shoot. I meant to say it had NOT flown a second time period.

a reply to: anzha
I wonder if they are thinking the same as the Chinese and putting old engines in just to get it flying and test the other systems.That way they can bench test the crap out of the newer ones so they work properly.Plus its better to have an engine fail on the ground rather than at 10,000 feet at Mach1.