Real Aliens? Real Spacecraft? Does the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis Still Hold Water?

“....the Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis is a scientifically valid hypothesis that is the simplest available to explain globally repeating, highly reliable observations by eminently qualified observers of solid objects under intelligent control with propulsion technology irreproducible by human knowledge...”

Brian Zeiler- Formulation and Predictions of the ETH
Source : www.nicap.org...

The acronym ‘UFO’ has become synonymous with the term ‘alien spacecraft’. Mainly because its roots lie in the era that the Unidentified Flying Object became a mass global phenomenon (the 1940s and 1950s) and then the reinforcement of that ‘alien’ association through popular culture and other means ever since.

In the second decade of a new millennium there are many theories as to what UFOs are that are not related to them being controlled by an alien intelligence. The purpose of this thread is not to look at all the other explanations and theories that have been put forward to explain UFOs but to question whether the extra-terrestrial hypothesis (ETH) still holds water today?

That question being;

Are at least some UFOs the product of an extraterrestrial intelligence?



This thread is also meant to be entertaining. So for those who want to know more about the various sub-topics I’ve added links and a few (shortish) videos. Although I don’t necessarily agree with the opinions voiced in them.  


Should We Believe in Flying Sorcery?


The ETH theory, at its most basic, is the assumption that SOME unidentified flying objects are spacecraft under the control of intelligent creatures not of this earth.
That theory probably began during the days when our ancient ancestors gazed at the night skies. By the 19th century newspaper stories of ‘strange airships’ , science fiction stories like HG Wells’ ‘War of the Worlds’ and Percival Lowell’s studies of Mars were bringing the thoughts of other beings from other planets into the consciousness of more and more people.

The dawn of the modern ‘flying saucer’ era is widely accepted as the day Kenneth Arnold reported seeing unidentified flying objects ‘skipping like saucers’ close to Mount Rainier in June of 1947. The ‘flying saucer wave’ that followed and the launch of official and unofficial studies into the topic once again drew attention to the skies.

For a brief period even the military were giving serious consideration to the possibility that some of the ‘saucers’ could be piloted by beings from other planets. But with no answers forthcoming and no proof of even an alien microbe existing out there in the universe it feels like the ETH has stagnated for over 50 years.


Above video : Richard Dolan discusses the ETH 


The Null Hypothesis



In direct opposition to the ETH is the null hypothesis. This is the theory that no unidentified flying objects are controlled by an extra-terrestrial intelligence. The null hypothesis explains that UFOs are simply random misunderstood sightings or disparate misidentifications of atmospheric or artificial terrestrial phenomena.
• To beef up that hypothesis arguments are often made as follows:

• The vast, vast distances between our solar system and others, given the constraints by the known laws of physics, present an insurmountable task to travel between stars. For example the New Horizons probe that recently studied Pluto would take 40,000 years to reach Alpha Centauri (our nearest stellar neighbour).

• The volume of reported sightings, landings and encounters are simply far too numerous to indicate any realistic study by an alien intelligence.

• The apparent ability of many UFOs to materialize and dematerialize, change shape, divide and split, merge with other objects, and other strange properties does not seem to suggest they are real nuts and bolts craft.

• Of all the species that have developed on Earth, over billions of years, only one has developed the technology to go into space. That species has still not managed to go beyond its own moon and space is a very dangerous place for fragile human bodies.

If the aliens really are coming then we have no proof they are on their way.....

Further information :

The Extraterrestrial Hypothesis and the null hypothesis

Public Opinion

A few years ago, a National Geographic survey declared....

Thirty-six percent of Americans, about 80 million people, believe UFOs exist, and a tenth believe they have spotted one, a new National Geographic poll shows. ...........
A growing number of Americans have come to believe that Earth is not the only planet in the universe hosting life..... The study showed that 77 percent of Americans believe there are signs that aliens have visited Earth.....

Source : ABC News

However, as we know, opinion polls can be wide of the mark when there are only two options available.
Another survey says people in Germany (56%) believe in aliens, followed by Americans (54%) and then the British(52%).

Pop culture, famous authority figures promoting the existence of a cosmic conspiracy, a huge volume of unidentified object reports going back decades and an attitude that UFOs are alien spacecraft unless proven otherwise, may well have influenced people’s beliefs.

But what is the reality?

Has even one alien spacecraft ever visited Earth?
 

Are [some] UFOs the product of an extraterrestrial intelligence?




The theory is still plausible and could simply be because we have been/are being visited by life as we don’t know it. How would we know how aliens would arrive or what they are like?

What if an alien species has sent out intelligent self replicating probes across the galaxy with technology way beyond our comprehension? Probes which are virtually invisible, able to transform themselves or perhaps so small that it is virtually impossible for us to detect them?
Maybe aliens really have visited on just a few rare occasions and we just don’t have evidence of it.

Or could it be that we do?

Could there be a real out of this world artifact in storage somewhere? Something we have absolutely no idea what it really is. We have never found another one; have no idea about its origins. It may explain a cover up of sorts but not the one certain popular UFO entertainment personalities would have us believe.



Or is there a huge, almost three quarter of a century cover-up as has been postulated?

Further Information :

When Will We Make Contact with Intelligent Aliens?


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The Wider and Wilder Picture

Since the 1950s the extra-terrestrial hypothesis has also been used to form the basis of much wider (and wilder) stories. These stories have taken the ET hypothesis and introduced many stranger ELEMENTS to the phenomenon. :


Alien Abduction


If the rumours of an alien agreement with Eisenhower were right then the aliens were a bit slow getting into gear. An awful lot of information about life on earth was already available in our text books. So why bother abducting people? In fact why did they take decades before doing so? There isn’t much on record before the mid-1970s of aliens taking people against their will.

The abduction phenomenon seems to have risen rapidly during the 1980s and faded away to almost nothing in the 21st century. Many abduction stories seem to involve hypnosis to retrieve memories from experiencers. This has been proven to be unreliable but many ‘abductees’ seem to report similar experiences (not always pleasant ones either).

What is going on?

Is it actually aliens or just people believing aliens are abducting them?


Further information :

ufos.about.com...

www.dailymail.co.uk... lain-encounters-fourth-kind.html

www.ufocasebook.com...


Secret ET bases


Under sea bases, desert bases, jungle bases, underground bases - covering all bases.

Apparently ET has them all over the world and on other worlds nearby. Even one of the Martian moons, Phobos, has been called an alien base in the past.

Area 51, Dulce & Wright Patterson AFB(US), AUTEC (Bahamas), Porton Down (UK), Kapustin Yar(Russia) and the far side of the moon all allegedly host secret alien facilities. There are many more. Rumours abound. One of the wildest is of an alleged fire fight between UN troops and aliens in an underground base at Dulce, New Mexico. You may have heard all about it?

How much of it is really a cover up for some of the clandestine activities of the world’s military that go on at these places?

How can there possibly be alien bases here on Earth and under our oceans?

Further Information :

www.thewatcherfiles.com...

www.storyeo.com...




Cattle Mutilations

These seem to have been a 1970s – early 1980s phenomenon. Certainly that is the period when the reports peaked. However stories continue to this day (even if less media attention is given to them.) The evidence suggests that many cattle deaths are due to attacks from predators and natural decomposition.

But there also seems to be evidence for a clandestine operation, especially in North America, of mutilating and testing herd animals. Many things point to this being conducted to monitor the food chain. Large numbers of cattle appeared to be mutilated in areas down wind of the nuclear test sites of WWII and the Cold War. Another whisper is that Alzheimer’s disease has grown rapidly in the last couple of decades because of the link between our love for fast food burgers in Western societies and dangerous prions in beef.

See :www.npr.org...

What is perhaps less known though is that there are cases of other animal mutations including marine life around the world.

Are aliens to blame for any of this or were they framed somewhere along the way?


Further Information :

Close Encounters of the Herd Kind




A Cosmic Treaty signed by President Eisenhower



Allegedly Ike Eisenhower met with two groups of aliens. One group were the human like ‘Nordics’ who wanted us to abandon our weapons and war like ways. Eisenhower, as the story goes, sold his soul (or actually other people’s souls) to the now ubiquitous ‘grey’ aliens in exchange for technology.

“The treaty stated that the aliens would not interfere in our affairs and we would not interfere in theirs. We would keep their presence on earth a secret. They would furnish us with advanced technology and would help us in our technological development. They would not make any treaty with any other Earth nation. They could abduct humans on a limited and periodic basis for the purpose of medical examination and monitoring of our development, with the stipulation that the humans would not be harmed, would be returned to their point of abduction, would have no memory of the event, and that the alien nation would furnish Majesty Twelve with a list of all human contacts and abductees on a regularly scheduled basis.....”

Source : exopolitics.org...

The circumstantial evidence points to Ike having ‘gone missing’ at exactly the right time for one of these alleged meetings with ET. Did he really visit an emergency dentist as the official record states?

Further Information:

Eisenhower and His Alien Contacts

Eisenhower Secret Meeting with Aliens




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Majestic Twelve – MJ12

In the mid 1980s mysterious papers appeared in the UFO community referring to a clandestine group of scientists, politicians and military men called Majesty12 , Majestic 12, MAJIC, or MJ-12. Their objective seemed to be the control and cover up of the ‘alien problem’. The ’problem’ being how to best conceal the existence of alien beings and their technology from the global public. A slow drip feed of information and disinformation would be used to confuse the public.

Unfortunately the MJ-12 papers are almost certainly hoaxes. But some researchers hold out that the group really did exist.

....the MJ-12 story will not die is that there is a lot of evidence to support it. It is however important to make a distinction between the MJ-12 group which is real, and the MJ-12 document which is almost certainly not a legitimate document. Because the document is probably a hoax has very little to do with a UFO control group set up to handle the extraterrestrials, technology, policies, security, and national security implications.

Source : www.presidentialufo.com...

Further information :

The Illustrated History of MJ-12

Majestic Documents



Alien/human/animal hybrid experiments


This seems to be a meme developed from both abduction stories, cattle mutilation stories, underground base rumours and secret facilities dotted around the world. There is not a lot of evidence for this beyond the anecdotal. The most famous being the stories about the evil goings on at an underground base in Dulce, New Mexico.

‘Ancient Aliens’ theories have also proclaimed we were the product of another species who appeared to us as gods in the past. But these aliens seemed to have gone very shy on us for at least a millennium. The evidence provided is often widely open to interpretation if not completely false in some cases. However in certain circles there is a belief that humanity is the creation of alien life forms tampering with our genes in the ancient past. We’ve never found any proof of it...not yet anyway.



The Men in Black



Yet another aspect to the UFO phenomenon is the reports of “Men in Black”. These rather strange folks are reported dressed in sharp black suits and some appear almost, but not quite, human. They often turn up shortly after UFO sightings to intimidate witnesses into not talking about their experiences. Often appearing before anyone else could possibly know about the sighting.

Some believe they are government agents others that they are aliens imitating humans.




So What Do You Think?

Are the stories true? Are aliens visiting Earth, abducting human beings, mutilating our cattle and generally acting with impunity when they get here?

If so are our governments covering it all up in fear of or perhaps in collusion with these guys?

Is it all modern mythology and aliens have never been here? Thus making all the other bolt-on theories void as well.

Or could the truth be somewhere between the two?

Maybe there have been just one or two visits in the past and then it all went silent. Maybe a sort of cover up exists but it’s because nobody really knows where the aliens came from, what they came here for and why they’ve never contacted us again?

Maybe they just ran out of water?

Nicely presented thread and a lot to go over. I shall be back when I have more time to look through it all.

a reply to: mirageman

Superb work, this add's to the quality of the site, your presentation is great and the content is more ATS than many recent opinion thread's of more earthly or rather mundane matter's.

I was actually looking at that same men in black video the other day and remembered something I saw when I was a kid 70's-80's, not UFO but Bermuda triangle investigator's whom would die mysteriously just like many UFO investigator's and Alien base whistle blowers and at least one of those cases as I vaguely recall had a strange man in a black suit seen near to the apartment were the investigator was later found dead.

My personal belief is that some UFO are of other intelligence origin, alien or local though now that is another question, I also believe given the obvious similarity that some paranormal tales such as Fairy Abduction's (often with tales of time dilation such as the journey to the land of the young or perhaps other dimensional nature as they can not return without dying or rapidly aging in some cases and the similarity to UFO story's and there abduction's which are often a little darker are very intriguing.

I do however feel that most cattle mutilation's and similar including on human's can be explained by black operation's Corporate or government but very much in the interests of Biopsy retrieval, perhaps to monitor a spread, radiological, pathogen, pollution or even a test using them as subject's and taking samples were this may be given a predictable saturation level that they can then analyze.

Still I once saw something, don't know what it was but it was a spheroid or disc that was flying in and out of the low cloud which was illuminated well by light scatter from the street light's below back when we had sodium street light's with a high light pollution level here in the UK, I noticed that it was highly reflective and definitely an object, it was moving silently (I felt something, a sense if you like of another presence or being which is how I came to jerk my head upward and look directly at it), it was flying in opposition to high wind's and very fast, I have seen tornado fighters doing low level training many time's but this was faster, now realistically this was within spitting distance of RAF Warton, about 30 miles or so therefore it could have been something from there, it was heading toward Pilkington laboratory's' were they used to perform some work on behalf of the MOD and also the state's, I believe a lot of work was done were for the US in helping to develop those old shuttle tile's way back.

I do believe alien or ET vehicles have come to the earth but we may not be the only intelligence in residence and perhaps we are not there subject, it is also possible that another intelligence would not want us to be, maybe we are not alone on the earth but is that a reason to feel worried and if so what is there agenda.

Also it is highly possible that we are neither the first age of human originated civilization's and that perhaps we are not the first intelligent species on the earth or indeed the solar system.

Go back to the 1900's and medium's were talking about vibration's (frequency's) and other world's (Dimension's and parallel reality's) so who know's, what about a spiritual (or what we have always percieved as spirit) civilization, perhaps we are just a grub stage for a far higher intelligence life form of other dimensional nature.

a reply to: LABTECH767
Yes , why do the "aliens" have to be a product of this universe. Given the current theory of an infinite number of universes in the multi-verse , why cant the "aliens" be a product of those universes ? Given our known laws of physics , it takes an infinite amount of energy to move any mass at near light speed. How bout the amount of energy required to potentially move through the "branes" that separate the universes. Or , move through the 10 (11?) dimensions ? As I understand , again through current theory , god particles and gravity may well do this....
Just Sayin

You have obviously put a lot of work into your posts but all I am getting from it is titles, a paragraph or two of info that is neither new or thought provoking...links to a lot of websites and then a kind of 'Over to you' question at the end and no actual opinions from yourself.

My apologies, but count me out, as this thread actually offers nothing in the way of stimulation or information. It's kind of like a general summing-up something we already know.

a reply to: fromtheskydown

Yes but it serves it's purpose to get ATS back onto the type of discussion many of us came here for rather than the big stink in the room or the cunning wench and her dress staining husband.

originally posted by: LABTECH767
a reply to: fromtheskydown

Yes but it serves it's purpose to get ATS back onto the type of discussion many of us came here for rather than the big stink in the room or the cunning wench and her dress staining husband.

I agree...I'm not having a go at the OP, just that I feel the topic is too wide and would rather have more meat on the bone for one aspect of the phenomenon.

a reply to: mirageman

So does the ETH still hold water in your opinion?
I don't recall you committing to answer that question really.

FYI, in case you haven't seen it, one of the fathers of UFOlogy
himself, Dr. Vallee, wrote this paper in 1990:

Five Arguments Against the Extra-terrestrial Theory

Nice work though as always.

Kev

a reply to: LABTECH767

There never seems to be any tangible proof in regards to the ETH coming from the ufology. This is despite the fact that it is the most logical and easiest to understand explanation in the reality we know of. Meanwhile the hard science people have edged ever closer to discovering exo-planets, goldilocks zone planets, signs of water. We are possibly only a step or two away from discovering life out there.

But that still won't prove even one UFO was an alien spacecraft. Even though it might mean a more serious look at the topic by people who would normally steer well clear of it.

I personally think that if we have ever been visited then it was just once or twice and then the aliens moved on or died out before they could come back.

So although I think the theory holds water it's probably been leaking for a very long time.

originally posted by: fromtheskydown
You have obviously put a lot of work into your posts but all I am getting from it is titles, a paragraph or two of info that is neither new or thought provoking...links to a lot of websites and then a kind of 'Over to you' question at the end and no actual opinions from yourself.

My apologies, but count me out, as this thread actually offers nothing in the way of stimulation or information. It's kind of like a general summing-up something we already know.

Fair enough. If you ever read any of my other posts you will find I don't (often) go strong with opinions in the OP. Mainly because there aren't many definite answers in this field and I prefer to offer my opinions later after presenting the information. This post wasn't aimed at someone like you. If you already have seen all the information presented here and know it all then I am sorry to have wasted your time.

a reply to: mirageman

Myself, I am tired of playing pee-a-boo with reputedly 'intelligent' beings from outer space. It has been 70 years since the 1947 events with little more to go on than the 'speculative' evidence that goes round and round, morphing into this and that while each new generation speculates anew.

For a period if time I accepted the general supposition that maybe humanity was not ready to recognize the presence of extra-terrestrials and the process of oblique sightings and reports were a slow drip of preparation for the open arrival of 'others'. Add in all the movies with a 'friendly spin' and one would think that that period of preparation, guiding human thinking to the 'meeting' would be accomplished.

But we have nothing new, , really, to suggest that anything is coming other than the diverse speculations as we have seen here on ATS and scattered about from multiple sources such as presented you your thread all of which are fodder for someone else to pitch a movie concept to Syfi Channel.

Bitter? Me? Yeah, kinda. Billions have continued to suffer at the hands of tyrants and fools in the last 70 years and hack speculation of help coming across the universe to assist our plight is useless diversion.

a reply to: KellyPrettyBear

So does the ETH still hold water in your opinion? I don't recall you committing to answer that question really.

Hello Kev. I didn't commit to it in the OP. Although I did in a reply earlier. I think it can hold water but only if the visitations were a very rare or unique occurrence. Let's face it most of the stories from the contactees to the abductees have now faded to almost nothing. It's all suggestive of something else at work rather than aliens in spaceships. We both know that and your friend Mr. Vallee has some very good arguments against the ETH.

This post wasn't really aimed at stimulating a deep intellectual debate amongst the usual suspects who hang about the A&F forum. Much as we all enjoy that at times. The OP is a more general post to try and attract people with a more casual interest in this topic and forum. Even if all they do is read it then hopefully it will have piqued their interest.

Happy Thanksgiving by the way my friend.

a reply to: fromtheskydown

I agree...I'm not having a go at the OP, just that I feel the topic is too wide and would rather have more meat on the bone for one aspect of the phenomenon.

Perhaps you'd prefer these posts then for something more specific or opinionated?

UFOs and the Cold War : Project Palladium

The Decline of Ufology: Decades of Fraud, Frustration and Failure?

And I would encourage you to write your own post up if you have something you are particularly interested in.

With the thousands of reports since the dawning of UFO documentation and research, and due to the fact that none of the genuinely mysterious events have been officially explained to this day, I would say of course, the ETH is still a prime hypothesis.

However, there is a lesser covered one, and it involves other species evolving on this planet before us, which to me is as acceptable as the ETH. Although I would also add, that due to the different descriptions of some UFO reports, it may indicate that we are dealing with many different kinds of visitors/residents.

a reply to: Zcustosmorum

......However, there is a lesser covered one, and it involves other species evolving on this planet before us, which to me is as acceptable as the ETH. Although I would also add, that due to the different descriptions of some UFO reports, it may indicate that we are dealing with many different kinds of visitors/residents.

Yes indeed. UFOs are real. Although what they are is probably, as you say, many different things all pigeon holed into one topic. The likelihood is that we are dealing with a number of different types of UFO and that's what makes things so difficult to understand. Perhaps crypto-terrestrials theory by Mac Tonnies is just as valid?

See : docs.google.com...

a reply to: TerryMcGuire

Yup. We are the aliens (organic ones anyway) that we are waiting for.

It's a really bitter pill for many to swallow.

You mean that we need to fix our wrecked planet without any help, from NEITHER biological aliens NOR metaphysical angels (or Buddhas for that matter)?

That's exactly what is starting to dawn on people.

Btw, i like your honesty in this and other posts.

Kev

a reply to: mirageman

You are the quality UFOlogist.

Keep up the good work.

I'm just some guy with a theory.

Kev

a reply to: mirageman
IMHO, This is Easily, one of the nicest threads to have been put together on this topic, ever to be posted in ATS!
Excellent job OP.
So much to dive in to...gonna be a late night!