Russian civilian aircraft goes off radar, reportedly crashes over Egypt

originally posted by: Zaphod58
a reply to: ashpack

The aircraft may have broken up in flight, but after what ever happened was well under way, and at a fairly low altitude.

ETA: There was some kind of hole in the fuselage. They found one body of a girl 5 miles from the impact. There are no reports of major structural failure. That could indicate a bomb blew a hole in the fuselage.

Agreed. I would say it could of broken up initially fairly high if the statement below from the Russians is true (spread over 20km). With Japan 123 if I remember correctly it was just the top part that came off meaning it would go down in a slightly different fashion as to loosing all of the tail.

Do you have a source for the hole in the fuselage you mentioned?

I'm suggesting that hole rear part of the fuselage which you can see in the circulating pics became detached either quite quickly after trouble started or the explosive decompression possibly from the hole you mentioned blew the back of the plane off.

Info from Russians:
"Disintegration of the fuselage took place in the air, and the fragments are scattered around a large area (about 20 square kilometers)," Viktor Sorochenko, executive director of Russia's Interstate Aviation Committee, told journalists.

a reply to: ashpack

JAL 123 lost all but the very base of the tail. They had just enough left to keep lateral stability which allowed them to keep control until they got into the mountains while attempting to land.



The hole is based on the statement that they found one body at 5 miles from the impact site. There hasn't been confirmation yet. But with a body the hole could have occurred lower and it been thrown that far. And the pieces they're collecting could easily be lighter pieces that came off as they were out of control. I haven't seen anything to show that there were large pieces spread over that distance like from a high altitude breakup.

Looking at the ADS-B data the aircraft went from 470 knots to 71. That would be well below stall speed. It's possible they stalled and then over corrected and got into a pilot induced occilation mode and couldn't recover.

If that's the case it's possible the stress of going from a steep climb to a steep dive and back again caused a structural failure.

I'm really interested to know the TOW of this flight, if they indeed had problems with one engine it is incomprehensible that they climbed to FL310.
As for the similarity with AF447, this flight was in clear weather, it didn't flew into thunderstorms.
Since there were already complains about this aircraft the investigation should concentrate on the maintenance of this aircraft and others in the fleet of this company.

a reply to: earthling42

They were probably really close to MTOW. There have been several reports that Russian charter flights are pushed to run as full as possible.

is it not possible that the plane experienced technical difficulties and had to descend which then put the aircraft in range of a manpad, hence the video and claims that it was shot down?

a reply to: dashrunner

Looking at the transponder data they were climbing and diving at pretty steep rates at the time data was lost. It doesn't look like they came low enough to be fired on.

a reply to: dashrunner

Obviously something happened, decompression would force them to a lower altitude, below FL150 and well in range of manpads.
But the video is clearly fake, there also has been no emergency call that supports this.
Something one would expect because an aircraft cannot simply deviate from its altitude and flightplan without endangering itself and other traffic nearby.
The sudden steep climb during the safest part of the flight will be a clue in to what happened, this causes the aircraft to stall in mid air because with that angle of attack.
The data shows that the aircraft was descending and ascending during the last part of the flight which can point to structural damage and an aircraft that is uncontrollable.
I'm quite sure that it wasn't shot down.

a reply to: earthling42

www.dailymail.co.uk... hs-ago.html

see first picture, shows fusilege skin peeling outward (meaning force from in side heading outside)

originally posted by: Chadwickus
a reply to: CovertAgenda

Cool, so false flag because....just coz.

Way to deny ignorance!

Ya, and you its what the newz I watch tellz me coz.

Its gotta be dem Russkies right ?? or something to do with the actions of anyone but the WEST right ??

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: NightFlight
Where did those Patriots go when moved out of Turkey? Makes you wonder...

not really no.

Because you know where they are ??

originally posted by: research100
a reply to: earthling42

www.dailymail.co.uk... hs-ago.html

see first picture, shows fusilege skin peeling outward (meaning force from in side heading outside)

This is interesting you can also see the peel back in bottom right hand corner of picture 19. This obviously could of happend on the way down but does look suspicious. The satelite images also show a pretty big debris area.

This plane was not shot down that is clear. A bomb can not be ruled out but I'm convinced nothing was fired from the ground.

a reply to: research100

Thanks,

Picture 28 says it all, fire on board.

a reply to: earthling42

Which would be consistent with an airframe that was overstressed and suffered a structural failure. The transponder data is pretty damming. It'll be interesting to see if the FDR data matches.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Indeed, i wonder how long it will take before the data will be released.

a reply to: Zaphod58

There were more pictures added, the number of the picture is now number 34.
Also if you look at picture 39, it seems to show signs of intense heat as if there was a fire in the cargo area.
What is your take on it Zaphod?

a reply to: earthling42

I'm not sure a fire would have resulted in the path we saw, unless the fire started after the initial event. They were in some serious oscillations. A fire you'd want to head down, these guys were all over the place.

It's possible that there was a bomb. For now I'm leaning towards a pitot system/maintenance issue, but a bomb is a possibility.

a reply to: Zaphod58

Out of curiosity -

I thought the airline industry upgraded the cargo hold containers to the ones that could contain an explosion.

a reply to: Xcathdra

It's not mandated yet. There are several options and some new technologies being studied but they're not required as of yet. Airlines rarely do anything before they're required to.

A better view on the piece of debris that is shown in picture 39.



And some footage of the crash site.



This aircraft sustained damage during a tail strike accident upon landing at Cairo International Airport (CAI), Egypt.

Footage of the debris, in particular, pay attention to the tail section, time stamp 1.28 to 1.35 in the video.



I don't know what the distance is between the main crash site and the area where the tail of the aircraft fell, but it might be a cause of the crash.
So we have two possibilities in my opinion, either a fire in the cargo bay has led to the crash and the tail broke from the aircraft while it plummeted to earth, or those pieces of debris burned on the ground after the crash that was caused by metal fatigue at the back of the aircraft.