The Decline of Ufology: Decades of Fraud, Frustration and Failure?

Many years ago, a family member put this question to me: "So, where do you stand? You've studied this subject for 25 years now in some capacity. You've read everything you can get your hands on. You've gone from being a 'believer' to being more skeptical, but you clearly still think something is going on. So what would you say if you had to give your official, final 'estimate' - like an intelligence estimate - right now, today, about these phenomena? What would you feel comfortable actually concluding?"

That was a hell of a question, and one I feel more people interested in the subject should consider. What we actually know today, not believe, but know, is... frustratingly... very little. So I spent a month or two reviewing evidence, retracing my steps, etc. etc. and this was the "estimate" I arrived at. Here's what I wrote for them:

Since at least the late 1940s, there have been credible, unexplainable sightings of flying objects in the skies over North America and other parts of the world.

At various points by and during the early and mid-1950s the CIA, Air Force, FBI, and numerous other national security and intelligence agencies, all had separate reports and internal memos of their own concluding that at least a small percentage of UFO encounters were reported by creditable observers, were supported by physical evidence such as radar tracks (corroborated by visual confirmation,) and which in some cases consisted of metallic looking, disc and/or cigar shaped, highly reflective, physically real objects which appeared to be intelligently controlled, and displaying speed and maneuverability well beyond anything possessed (or at least acknowledged) by any Earthly military on the planet at the time, often vanishing, speeding away, or rapidly climbing out of sight when interception was attempted... which it frequently was.

Despite this, and despite there at the time being continuing investigations and studies of the phenomenon by various other bodies and agencies, near the end of the Truman administration the CIA determined that continuing public interest in and reporting of UFOs constituted a potential national security threat - ostensibly due to possible mass hysteria and the flooding of communications and intel channels. Thus the CIA established a cursory, four day review of the available evidence by prominent scientists with ties to the military establishment (the Robertson panel,) after which the NSA mandated that unexplained cases like those described in the above mentioned reports and memos should not be discussed with the public and/or press, and perhaps most tellingly, that ONLY those cases which could be explained as mundane or the result of hoaxes and psychological issues should be publicized. In various forms, that policy has been in effect ever since, despite periods of renewed (or at least feigned) interest in being more forthcoming with the public. (For a time, it was even a crime punishable by imprisonment or fine to release UFO sighting data to the public and press, despite the study and investigation thereof continuing in earnest behind closed doors.)

Meanwhile, good, credible, military encounters with these objects continued unabated, with the same evidence based support as the above mentioned instances. These were studied, despite official claims to the contrary, with at least moderate interest and official sanction, while the public faces of the official investigations into such matters such as Blue Book and later other bodies, were kept out of the loop or told by their superiors to reduce the number of "unknowns" by cooking the statistics. (This is why credible, rigorous investigators like Ruppelt left eventually.)

There is as yet no definitive proof that these objects are the product of extraterrestrial visitors, however it can be argued that some evidence exists to support the hypothesis at least, in the event that no Earthly agency or force has secretly created them unbeknownst to us. There is as yet no proof that these objects are the products of American or Russian black projects either, with the possible (probable?) exception of later craft such as Aurora and other similar hypersonic scramjet vehicles, as well as potentially so-called "stealth blimps." If the remaining unexplained and highly credible sightings and encounters are black military projects by either Russia or America, then they are so highly secreted and compartmentalized, that even the upper echelons of the defense and intelligence establishments have frequently been kept out of the loop, as evidenced by their own considerable efforts to investigate the "UFO problem" over the decades,both publicly and covertly.

There were disc-shaped experimental aircraft, as well as semi-disc shaped craft with tails, which might be what some prominent and unexplained sightings such as the Rouen France UFO in the 1950s, would look like in flight from specific angles. However the consistency with which they would have had to be photographed only from the front or rear for those silhouettes to match, as well as the speed and maneuverability of the sighted craft, would rule out those experimental aircraft... unless there were far more successful designs being tested not just in North America, but all over the world. The publicly avowed "disc" craft had nowhere near the reported capabilities of these UFOs. The paucity of any similar craft eventually coming into service publicly at any point in the last 60+ years, how far ahead of what was considered feasible at the time (and arguably even today) these sightings were, and the behavior toward our existing conventional interceptors as well as apparent official concern over the sightings, all seem to render this improbable in my personal opinion. However the possibility that someone, somewhere, had improved considerably on these designs and possessed technology far in excess of what was thought possible then or now, must at least be considered.

Regardless of the ultimate reality, something physically real lies at the heart of some portion of the UFO phenomenon, and it is not entirely accountable for by mundane, meteorological, atmospheric, geological, electromagnetic, or temperature phenomena, or simple misidentification of natural, routine objects or behavior (such as birds or common celestial bodies.)

There is also some circumstantial evidence to suggest that a limited, highly secret "control group" dedicated to the study and control of the public discourse of UFO oriented subject matter, consisting of scientists from various disciplines, and certain industry and intelligence personages, may have existed at one time. There is no outright proof of its existence however, nor of its persistence beyond the 1960s or so. Nor is there any definitive proof that the MJ-12 and associated documents were genuine (and some evidence of them being hoaxes, evidence many consider sufficient to definitively debunk them.)

(Continued...)

(Continued from previous...)

On the matter of abduction: Numerous disparate, unrelated, often mentally healthy individuals have also since at least the 1950s, experienced both waking experiences and parasomnias characterized by extremely intense visual, emotional, and cognitive episodes during which subjects experience what they perceive to be physical contact and abduction by non-human entities. These perceptions and experiences are highly consistent from person to person. There is no credible physical evidence of these experiences that cannot potentially be accounted for by self-mutilation or hoax to date. However even eliminating those cases and those in which psychiatric condition might be a factor, we are left with a significant body of consistent, disparate, highly strange experiences by unrelated, entirely sane and competent individuals.

Very few possible explanations for this exist which could conventionally account for all such remaining cases. These include a new, emerging syndrome as yet undefined by the psychiatric community, possibly involving temporal lobe epilepsy, and/or an unusual release of endogenous D.M.T., as well as exploitation by unscrupulous hypnotherapists (however the latter would not account for all cases either.) Beyond these as yet unconfirmed hypotheses, there is little means of explaining this so called "abduction" phenomenon short of outright hoax, but the problem persists even when restricting oneself only to cases where hoax and deliberate deception have been ruled out or are judged to be highly improbable. (The other possible explanations stray into purely speculative territory and are not something I want to touch on in what is intended to be a factual estimate.)

CONCLUSION: We cannot conclude much about the ultimate reality of the phenomenon, its source, or the government and military's true position or knowledge thereof. All I can state with comfortable certainty is that it is credibly and physically REAL in a small percentage of UFO sighting cases, remains unexplained to a satisfactory degree with regard to the alleged abduction phenomenon (this facet of the subject remains much less supported by evidence to date and must be treated with great caution in my view,) and the true extent and depth of governmental/military knowledge pertaining to it - however great or inconsequential - has not been fully revealed to the people, and has been frequently concealed intentionally.

Although ultimately unsatisfying, this is the strange, factual reality as supported by all of the available, corroborated, strong evidence, in my personal opinion.

---------------------------------------

That's, in my opinion, where we stand. Frustration? You bet.

Peace.

a reply to: mirageman

Well, I certainly can understand the frustration and failure.

They can't even get the naming right. One thinks Ufology would be about the study of Unidentified Flying Objects. What you have instead is a bunch of people labeling anything unidentified as extraterrestrial.

Imho Ufology is nothing more than a modern form of mythology, where the supernatural has been replaced by extraterrestrial. No wonder it is not getting anywhere.

a reply to: YabasaThere is actually a bit of evidece such as implants, marks on the ground, alien abductee storeys which match even though the abductees come from different countries and dont speak each others language, radar abnormalities which cannot be explained, astronaut sightings etc. Why would both the american CIA and Russias KGB have documented accounts of alien types etc if their was not something to this. I do believe that their are groups that are intereacting with aliens but this is kept very secret. As we are not an advanced civilisation their is probally some type of prime directive put on this planet which means that the general population is to be kept in the dark and isnt to intereact with aliens.Their is also likly to be a clean up crew that keeps witnesses quite and gets rid of any evidenceand their has indeed been stories of this occurring. Also why are their laws on the books against populations in general intereacting with aliens if their are no aliens.
Agreed that over 90% of alien stuff is fake and is just fraud and hoaxes, also think that a lot of the stuff that is true has some false imformation implanted into it Eg alien form is true but perhap not the ability to shapeshift. If these entities have the ability to play with our minds as suggested then what is true and what is not would be impossible for the average person to determine. Their is probally not a lot of aliens on this planet at any one time and they probally mainly keep to them selves as well as having cloaking technologies for their ships which would come in all shapes and sizes. As we would only send our best and brightest our into the universe when we get to that level of technology it is probally also true for them. It would also make sense that not many people would be abducted and that their memories of the event would be clouded or erased as most memories are only recalled under deep hypnosis and not easily brought up as many think

a reply to: mirageman

sadly, I agree with your opening post, it has been tainted with mis-information and hoaxes.

I believe that the black projects are so compartmentalized and they have had a lot of time to perfect processes and departments to the point where nothing leaks, that they don't need to inject anymore disinformation into the public domain to cover up these projects as there is very little chance of anything leaking. If anything did leak, it wouldn't make sense to anyone due to the compartmentalization.

I believe this is the main reason we have seen a rapid decline in notable sightings, UFOs etc.

a reply to: fleabit

That Holland County Case might be deemed 'unexplained' but how does that prove it was alien visitation?

It us up to those making the claim to prove it was aliens not shift the burden of proof and expecting others to disprove something that remains unproven.

Blue Shift made a good point earlier on that if we can't explain something then it doesn't mean if we had more data it would a)prove it was aliens or b) prove it was a hoax/misidentification. But we tend to let what we believe influence us and fill in the gaps.

a reply to: AceWombat04

Very well put together and deserving of a post in its own right.

a reply to: Qspeedyrock

There is actually a bit of evidence such as implants, marks on the ground, alien abductee storeys....

Can you point to any of the implants or marks on the ground that actually prove it was created by something not of this earth?

How high up do these alien storeys go?

......radar abnormalities which cannot be explained, astronaut sightings etc. Why would both the american CIA and Russias KGB have documented accounts of alien types etc if their was not something to this

Radar anomalies I accept, not so much the astronaut sightings as Jim Oberg has pretty much covered these.

Can you link to where the CIA and KGB have documented account of alien types? All the ones I have seen were hoaxed.

originally posted by: fleabit

.. unless you can explain it away with something logical.. and not guesswork, then you haven't proved you case that there is no alien visitation.

That is not the case that needs proving, nor is it provable. This major logical fallacy gets much use here [burden of proof/proving a negative].


I assume you meant that unless you can prove what something is, then you haven't yet proved what it isn't.

a reply to: mirageman

Its a shame that it was allowed to get this far, but yes a lot of attention seekers manufactured and doctored imaged or videos, embellished stories to satisfy their own craving for identification.
I for one (if funds were available ) love to work in or own a serious research centre, but alas it would be interfered with by governments and those same attention seekers whose main aim is divert people away from truth whatever it may be.
Nowadays all it makes us do is keep our eyes down and no longer look up and wonder if we're alone in the cosmos.
Its a crying shame that we as a society, no a civilisation have gotten to the point we're we no longer care about furthering our minds but only care about filling our pockets.

Why is the onus of proof on the "ufologist"? A true student of ufology wants the mystery to be investigated, not the alien hypothesis proven. So it would be a good idea for research to be carried out by a body that is dedicated to solving the mystery, not just debunking those cases that can be explained, right?

The thing is, no body or organisation exists that is unbiased and open as well as open minded because the whole subject is STILL regarded as a career killer. I believe that a lot of this comes from higher up, governments whose agenda is to keep top secret those technologies that may be discovered if serious study were to be undertaken.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that I believe that all ufo sightings are secret military tech, it is just that if serious study were to take place it is certain to reveal some of those technologies, just as a by product of the investigation, and we can't have that now, can we?

We can not, after all, focus heavily on our skies because, what might we see? So then, the average ufologist just picks up the crumbs of the ill informed, or worse, the agenda pushers, those who promote the negativity, both pro and contra, of the ufo issue.

The OP is not the only person who is promoting the idea of the death of ufology, as may be seen in this link from this very month.

The decline and fall of ufology October 2015

I don't believe that ufology has died, I do however believe some are trying to kill it.

a reply to: Jonjonj

Why is the onus of proof on the "ufologist"?

It depends on what the claim is. But logic dictates that it is not up to the 'skeptic' to disprove something which is unproven in itself. The existence of aliens visiting the solar system and Planet Earth is not an accepted fact.

As an example I could say this to you :

"I saw a huge bright light crash into the lunar surface last night. We had no spacecraft on the way to the moon. If it wasn't ours it must alien right? Unless you can prove it wasn't?


Now because many people believe there actually are alien spacecraft they struggle to see this as a logical fallacy.

But if I turned said this:

"I saw a huge bright light crash into the lunar surface last night. We had no spacecraft on the way to the moon. If it wasn't ours it must a red dragon breathing fire and ridden by a smurf? Unless you can prove it wasn't?

Then perhaps you can understand better?


When you say this :

A true student of ufology wants the mystery to be investigated, not the alien hypothesis proven. So it would be a good idea for research to be carried out by a body that is dedicated to solving the mystery, not just debunking those cases that can be explained, right? .......

You are absolutely correct.

But Ufology is so fractured and split because it's full of people with belief systems. So which organisation could possibly take up the research beacon without being shot down as soon as their findings don't match people's beliefs?

The OP is not the only person who is promoting the idea of the death of ufology, as may be seen in this link from this very month. The decline and fall of ufology October 2015 I don't believe that ufology has died, I do however believe some are trying to kill it.

Thanks for the link as Kevin Randle is a writer I do have a lot of respect for.

The main inspiration for the thread came from two pieces I read in New Scientist Magazine (both linked in the OP) from the late 1970s. They are rather critical of where Ufology stood then. A lot has happened since from the 1980s to the present day. The main problem being that with the end of the Cold War the UFO sightings started to dry up and the landings and crashes have been almost non-existent. Coincidence? - I think not.

But nothing new to talk about means forever digging in the past. Hence the Roswell slides debacle. It also means that younger people are not attracted to the field.

Ufology can still survive if it gets it's act together of course. But it's struggling after 7 decades.

Digital technology and, as an extension of that, the Internet, have been a godsend for those who dismiss 'ufology' as bunkum. For it has paved the way for such a tsunami of fakery and nonsense that it has rendered even the legitimately unexplainable, an absolute joke.

Ufology has become a cult and religion; not unlike traditional, organised religions. The pursuit has become little more than a game of one-upmanship of who can produce the most convincing faked abduction account or piece of "evidence".

Aliens have no need for fangled cloaking mechanisms or physical mimicry, when most everything associated with ufology is so absurd that it, in and of itself, serves as a camouflage more effective than any scientific technology could ever hope to afford.

There is at the heart of all this a certain hypocrisy from what might deemed as the scientific establishment as, currently to the best of my knowledge, there is no equation, no proof I or anyone else can offer up that proves beyond doubt that, our existence is anything other than solipsistic in its' nature. I do remember that, a couple of years ago, scientists were saying they were months away from a proof however as yet I have yet to see any confirmation they have finally done it.

Think about that for a moment, despite we considering ourselves so "advanced" we as a species can't even offer proof that anyone apart yourself exists. It's no use replying "Oh it's obvious, other people must exist" as there is currently, no more actual scientific proof than there is we have been visited by aliens. in a sense that might well be a marker about how really we as a species. are just not that interested in the truly deep questions and those that cannot be commercially exploited?

The facts are, from many people's perspectives Ridpath is peddling an outdated mythology that being that, our current scientific model can explain everything when quite patently it can't, it can't currently, even "prove" everyone reading this or replying to this thread, is more than a figment of my imagination.

it does make me chuckle when i see the UFO proponents talking about Einstein somehow being "gifted to humanity" by some "extraterrestrial intelligence" or, his brain was wired by them to "move us on as a race" when, in the final analysis Einstein ran away squealing whibble whibble whibble; when confronted with the "reality or non reality depending whether you're actually observing it", of our quantum world.

Let me give you an example of where science can only explain something today that 30 years ago it couldn't. David Beckam is an internationally famous footballer or soccer player for our colonial cousins. One of his specialities is the way he takes free kicks. Now, with the development of camera technology, his technique can be studied and they have discovered the following about Beckam's technique. That being that, if 99.999% of the world's population does what he can do with his ankle they would break their ankle the first time they tried it. Modern cameras prove beyond doubt he can do what he does, 30 years ago scientists within the field of human anatomy would have flatly denied it and said, "That's impossible, he'd break his ankle"; and they would have done so with good cause.

We "know" so much and yet currently, we are truly realising as a species, we actually know virtually sic nothing, as a certainty and that is something that, particularly people such as Ridpath seemingly, have absolutely no concept of. In fact, on a genuine philosophical level and accounting for our current scientific knowledge, the non existence of "aliens" is the "extraordinary theory that requires specific proof" not the other way round, as so often quoted. In exactly the same manner when someone says "Why do aliens have two legs and two eyes etc?"; the truth is, current science would point out that, the top predator species are almost all bipedal with stereoscopic vision, so it would be no surprise at all if an alien species was as well.

it's no coincidence that, virtually every culture in our world with a strong shamanistic heritage, almost all believe in what we call "aliens" and that we have had interactions with them for thousands of years. Neither do those with shamanistic traditions have any real philosophical problem with accepting quantum uncertainty as a "reality" in fact, they are happy to embrace it as they would point to that as an explanation for those who don't understand their world view.

Ridpath and his ilk represent a view of our existence that is truthfully in denial about our reality/non reality. In essence Ridpath and his ilk believe, note the word believe this is not just semantics it is a belief system the same as those who believe in the "star children", despite all the evidence to the contrary that, the world is "solid" everything can measured and evaluated by current scientific models and that, time is some sort of one way street that is separate to our space. Only, science has moved on, it's like any belief system though, many of it's adherents simply cannot let go because, it destroys their confidence in themselves. in short, it's about people's egos both individually and as a species.

Maybe think of it like this when you consider UFOs and their possible origins

Stage One.... I think they exist and they are an unknown technology
Stage Two... One reflection and taking into account our current understanding of science, they are more likely misidentified natural phenomena or possibly secret human technology
Stage Three. Much as I'd like to believe the above, there are a series of cases which seem to deny both of these assumptions.
Stage Four.. Why is it that we, particularly with a Northern European tradition, can seemingly, happily believe in the concept of some old geezer with a long beard running everything yet, we dismiss those shamanistic traditions that actually do seem to have some understanding of that we call UFOs?
Stage Five.. No matter what I thought I knew and what others insist they know, these damned things keep showing up and we still fail to either, manage to observe them in anything approaching a classical scientific manner, or explain them in a manner that truly fits that we do observe.
Stage Six.. You know what? Isn't about time we removed our collective heads from up our collective bums and just studied what appears in front of us no matter whether or not, it fits our preconceived ideas about what can and cannot exist?

If you're stuck in the "clockwork universe model" and you cannot handle the quantum world then go and read the French Geipan/SEPRA files and then ask yourself, why they are often, almost totally ignored by those on both sides of the current debate?

a reply to: Kandinsky

Another possible variable along these lines (perhaps an elaboration on what I was suggesting before) is that with the increase in technology and development there is less opportunity for people to wind up unobserved in isolated situations where historically a lot of experiences have occurred.

An example is a sighting from back in the heyday near my home. A man alone in his vehicle encountered a spectacular UFO on a lonely stretch of highway and observed it for a number of minutes without anyone nearby seeing it or any other traffic coming along. With the development that has happened it would now be impossible to be stopped that long on that highway day or night without other vehicles passing and there is now residential development all around.

I'm not saying being alone in that particular geographic location was responsible for his sighting, but if that was a factor no one is ever going to be alone at that spot again. Just some wild speculation on my part.

a reply to: mirageman

But nothing new to talk about means forever digging in the past. Hence the Roswell slides debacle. It also means that younger people are not attracted to the field.

Ufology can still survive if it gets it's act together of course. But it's struggling after 7 decades.

I just dont think the interest is there, especially among researchers. Not enough Hyneks or Knapps in the world. Ufology is that taboo subject in science, much like religion/God. The Arizona governor is apologetic for making light of the Phoenix lights, but the fact remains, he was able to get away with it because most people dont take it seriously. Just a bunch of fairy tales and kooks. So many cases like the Portage county chase where careers were upended simply for reporting what they thought happened.

Then there are those going after the documentation like Podesta, but so far nothing, because in reality, the only people who care are on nutter sites like this one.

I do think the old cases are all we are left with(for me at least they are convincing enough) but thats not enough to sustain interest for much longer. Just looking at the recent thread you did on the Airport case, even if we proved something was over OHare that day, it wouldnt be enough, as Springer mentioned, it could just be a black project. Its only when you look back at the older cases like Westall that explanations like that dont make sense.

More to the point, this very forum is proof of title, really not that much activity.

a reply to: 111DPKING111


Plus, people simply do not report what they see as often as they did in the past. In the last decade I have had several cases reported me by people that, in the last 3-4 decades of the 20th century would have been "classic cases" the sort referred to time and time again in various books about the subject. When I asked why they didn't report these sightings the answer was either, "Who to and what for? or; "Well, I just assumed it was some secret tech of ours".

For the last couple of years I have being trying to convince a friend's father to give me a full and frank account of a tale his son told me almost in passing that happened circa 2000 where, the friend's father took "pot shots" at some "unknown creature" after a series of "weird lights" had been seen over an area near me for 2-3 nights running. I have had a couple of friends who hail from the area ask around on my behalf and it does seem that, there are people who do indeed remember the "strange lights" from the commensurate time period my friend says his father had his "strange encounter".

You know, one of the most pleasing moments for me on this forum was when, a couple of years ago, a guy came on and recounted his experience and I realised that. He was one of three other witnesses to a landed "strange craft" in South Birmingham the UK circa 1980, reported to me independently in confidence, a couple of years before he chose to go public on this forum by another occupant of the car that night. He also confirmed the following that, none of the witnesses ever spoke about what they had seen, even in the seconds after they saw what they saw or, with each other or family and friends in the intervening decades.

Always with the PHYSICAL PROOF....As if an advanced alien species would just leave undeniable, unquestionable, unequivocal proof (which would probably have to be a spaceship and/or them walking out on camera in front of the world)and If one did ANYONE have physical evidence and the government knew about it, do you think the government would just allow them to keep it and go public?? I have personally seen a UFO something like 350-400 ft away. Unless you can explain to me what a ,for lack of better term, "white ball of light" that makes no sounds and doesn't move an inch could possibly be?? What about the sightings with thousands of observers of objects doing impossible maneuvers and denying the laws of physics, the sightings with corroborating radar detection? Radar detecting objects going thousands of MPH doing right angle turns?? Humans who have had close encounters with these crafts that suffer from radiation poisoning and other ailments? Radiation levels, much higher than normal, in the soil where these crafts were spotted. Weird materials with different isotopic levels than elements found on earth. The sightings from 100's of years ago? This list goes on and on...

originally posted by: EnPassant

originally posted by: DelMarvel
The biggest, most important factor is that the stimulus for the interesting UFO and encounter reports has left the stage leaving nothing substantial to focus on. With the most intriguing old reports being so
We know have a huge and increasing percentage of the world carrying cell phone cameras/video cameras at all time and yet no convincing images are being produced. (at least none I've seen.)

The Kumburgaz sighting?

Fairly solidly debunked as an ocean liner.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: mirageman

I know what i saw. Plus unexplained is not disproving aliens, if anything it proves we don't know it wasn't.