Poll for all members (skeptics, debunkers, and believers) of ATS: Have you ever had a UFO sighting?

a reply to: ZetaRediculian

Hi Zeta, to be honest, I'm not exactly sure what I'm trying to derive from this poll.

Initially it was pure curiousity as to who believes they have had a sighting and who hasn't. Upon reading the replies I think there may be some kind of confirmation bias happening with certain posters. Some appear to have set the bar very low and I am dubious of certain claims, but I don't feel it appropriate to call upon individuals in a poll I set. Despite this, what is of interest is the meaning people ascribe to their sightings. I noticed a few 'abductees', an area I am also very dubious about, but again I didn't want to interrupt the flow of the thread.

Ultimately, I was particularly interested in those who I know from ATS to be on the more skeptical side. A reasonable number of these posters replied, and I am grateful for their postings - I personally place more value on the sightings of a skeptic as I think they have better filters in place to identify the more prosaic things which may fool other less credulous posters. There were certain posters I was hoping who would post in the thread who didn't, and I think their contributions would be valuable, especially for those who tend to fall more on the 'true believer' end of the scale.

I hope that helps. My rationale chopped and changed as the thread progressed, and this is as best as I can articulate my own motives at this point.

a reply to: cuckooold

Thanks. It is very interesting.

So I was in St Petersburg Florida 2 years ago for a wedding. One night we were out drinking and I noticed some folks looking up at the sky taking pictures or mapping the constellations with some iPhone app. Another guy comes out wondering what we were talking about and says "what is that?" while pointing up at the sky. I replied that I that it was Venus. He insisted that it was moving and was really baffled. I looked at it or a few more seconds and it did give an impression that it was moving. I think it was near the moon and decided that it wasn't moving. I just left it at that. So that guy had a sighting but I didn't. I never bothered finding out if it was Venus or not.

a reply to: Kandinsky

Sure, there a lot's of rational explanations. Sometimes there aren't. I'm just curious as to why some are so quick to completely rule non-human intelligence out.

I mean seriously, what are the chances? .001%? .000001%

If there is the slightest chance, then should not the possibility considered?

No one has given me a good reason why non-human intelligence should always be ruled out, apart from the circular reasoning that "they don't exist". Surely they exist in some part of the universe, so why couldn't they be around here?

Why do people get there pants in a knot if the possibility is even mentioned?

Again, I believe we are socially conditioned to think it is silly to consider. But given many of the sighting descriptions, it is not that far fetched. Thousands of trained civilian/military pilots, aware of Venus, weather balloons, shooting stars etc have reported objects in their vicinities that subsequently left the area at multiples of Mach, far in advance of any known earth tech at the times. And people aren't even considering non-human intelligence? I think people have been socially conditioned and are just deluding themselves to not even consider the possibility. Maybe it is just too much for some minds to comprehend.

54 years of nothing, I also have over 9000 hours flying mostly at night and grew up in Arizona looking at the stars a few times a week as an amateur astronomer for years. I would love to see something, I would love something to shake the very foundations of my beliefs, but unfortunately nothing....

a reply to: PlanetXisHERE

I mean seriously, what are the chances? .001%? .000001%

The chances are unknown. You can only determine odds based on known outcomes. In reality, the only thing someone can do is compare what they saw with known things. I cant calculate the odds of a coin flip not coming down heads or tails until it does that a few times.

originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
Sure, there a lot's of rational explanations. Sometimes there aren't. I'm just curious as to why some are so quick to completely rule non-human intelligence out.

I mean seriously, what are the chances? .001%? .000001%

First approximation: 7.14 E -10 (0.000000000714)
or about
0.0000000714%

I'm working on a revised value, but I'm afraid it won't be much better, if at all...

a reply to: cuckooold

I don't think you have been remiss at all, this poll was a great idea!

Why?

Well, if you frequent the Aliens and UFO forums and threads you might come away with the impression that true Unidentified Flying Object experiences are rare, that is flying objects which cannot be explained as Venus, balloons, birds, regular aircraft, experimental aircraft etc. Most of the members on here are familiar with the various objects that can be mistaken for UFO's.

And yet, we have an overwhelming majority of posters who HAVE experienced true Unidentified Flying Objects at least once.

So I guess the only conclusion from this is that for some strange reason, on many of the Alien or UFO threads, the debunkers have a hugely disproportionate presence. Or maybe that isn't surprising given many people's conclusions about these objects.

originally posted by: tanka418

originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
Sure, there a lot's of rational explanations. Sometimes there aren't. I'm just curious as to why some are so quick to completely rule non-human intelligence out.

I mean seriously, what are the chances? .001%? .000001%

First approximation: 7.14 E -10 (0.000000000714)
or about
0.0000000714%

I'm working on a revised value, but I'm afraid it won't be much better, if at all...

Remember to show your work if you want credit.

a reply to: tanka418

I have to say that as much as might disagree that you could possibly do this, the fact that you came up with a precise number like this, tells me you put more than 5 minutes into it. I think I may retire my argument and defer to you at this point.

originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
a reply to: cuckooold

I don't think you have been remiss at all, this poll was a great idea!

Why?

Well, if you frequent the Aliens and UFO forums and threads you might come away with the impression that true Unidentified Flying Object experiences are rare, that is flying objects which cannot be explained as Venus, balloons, birds, regular aircraft, experimental aircraft etc. Most of the members on here are familiar with the various objects that can be mistaken for UFO's.

And yet, we have an overwhelming majority of posters who HAVE experienced true Unidentified Flying Objects at least once.

So I guess the only conclusion from this is that for some strange reason, on many of the Alien or UFO threads, the debunkers have a hugely disproportionate presence. Or maybe that isn't surprising given many people's conclusions about these objects.

Since "The Debunkers" also have a presence in THIS thread I would say that such an impression could indeed be due to "many people's conclusions about these objects".

originally posted by: ZetaRediculian
a reply to: tanka418

I have to say that as much as might disagree that you could possibly do this, the fact that you came up with a precise number like this, tells me you put more than 5 minutes into it. I think I may retire my argument and defer to you at this point.

When my son was 4 years old everything was 14 to him. Everything amounted to 14. Everything cost $14. Everything took 14 minutes.

He was obviously a Bayesian prodigy.

a reply to: PlanetXisHERE

So I guess the only conclusion from this is that for some strange reason, on many of the Alien or UFO threads, the debunkers have a hugely disproportionate presence. Or maybe that isn't surprising given many people's conclusions about these objects.

Or maybe, just maybe, the folks you consider "debunkers" aren't debunkers at all and are just trying to help define the phenomenon. I found it surprising how many people that someone might consider debunkers used to believe ET was behind all of this.

My father and I (6 years old) were in a field a couple of miles from home.

He looked up in the air and pointed at a moving red light.

He started getting excited and said it was a UFO.

It started moving closure and closure to us.


The next thing we remember; we were walking (half-way home) and two hours were missing.

We had no explanation for the event and never discussed it again after that night.

Two together over a top secret military base ... Unable to explain their high speed conventionally ... they were high and fast

originally posted by: draknoir2

originally posted by: tanka418

originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE
Sure, there a lot's of rational explanations. Sometimes there aren't. I'm just curious as to why some are so quick to completely rule non-human intelligence out.

I mean seriously, what are the chances? .001%? .000001%

First approximation: 7.14 E -10 (0.000000000714)
or about
0.0000000714%

I'm working on a revised value, but I'm afraid it won't be much better, if at all...

Remember to show your work if you want credit.

Well then;

Understand this is first approximation.

It is based on the possible existence of advanced sentient life occurring around 5 stars. Three from the Sirius/Orion/Pleiades group and two from the "Hill" star map.

These stars were selected because they are the right stellar class, and the right age, and all have some relatively important role in Terrestrial myth.

Presuming one individual from each civilization on Earth at any given time...that is around 5 in 7 billion or 7.14E-10

I'm sure you can do the arithmetic on that...

Is this an accurate value? Probably not...but it IS a first approximation, and can provide a "starting point" for additional work.

originally posted by: DMFL1133
My father and I (6 years old) were in a field a couple of miles from home.

He looked up in the air and pointed at a moving red light.

He started getting excited and said it was a UFO.

It started moving closure and closure to us.


The next thing we remember; we were walking (half-way home) and two hours were missing.

We had no explanation for the event and never discussed it again after that night.

Wow, if what you're saying is true, and I have no reason not to believe you, your experience sounds like an authentic abduction experience, and there is a correlation between some UFO sightings and abduction.

If you are interested, I'm curious to get your thoughts on this thread I have linked below, and see if anything in the OP video resonates with you; if so maybe you could chime in on that thread, thanks.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Why do you think it was never discussed? Were you not dying to discuss it with someone? This experience mirrors that of most abductees; extremely hesitant to talk about the experience; whereas debunkers will have you believing people who claim abduction are clamoring for fame, fortune and notoriety - when in fact the opposite is true. One of the logical conclusions of this is that abductions are severely underreported.

originally posted by: cuckooold
a reply to: ZetaRediculian
-- snip --
Ultimately, I was particularly interested in those who I know from ATS to be on the more skeptical side. A reasonable number of these posters replied, and I am grateful for their postings - I personally place more value on the sightings of a skeptic as I think they have better filters in place to identify the more prosaic things which may fool other less credulous posters.
-- snip --

That is part of what makes the experience so friggin' hard to talk to someone about. My wife and son missed out on about half of our sighting during the 2000 eclipse precisely because of the fact that I was standing there with my mouth hanging open in awe at what I was seeing. This is in spite of the fact that a part of me knew that my family had an ongoing string of sightings going back to at least when my twin brother and I were toddlers too young to remember. All I could do was stand there with that stupid look on my face while thinking in the back of my mind, "Well I'll be an SOB, they really are real, I'm seeing something that people just DON'T see!"

I literally just signed on a few minutes ago because I was watching "I Know What I Saw" on YT and was so moved by the woman who expressed her frustration that it had taken 5 minutes for the object they saw to pass over their house and out of view and nobody seemed to care about identifying what she'd seen. Our eclipse sighting lasted 8 to 9 seconds as the object went horizon to almost horizon (the constellation Orion). I walked around in semi-shock for days. I can't imagine what she was feeling.

I like what the one guy said earlier in the same documentary, "H*ll, I'd be satisfied if they'd tell us just once, 'It's classified and we aren't going to tell you.'!"

I had a UFO sighting back in the 70's. You can read about it here...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: PlanetXisHERE

originally posted by: DMFL1133
My father and I ...

Wow, if what you're saying is true, and I have no reason not to believe you, your experience sounds like an authentic abduction experience, and there is a correlation between some UFO sightings and abduction.

If you are interested, I'm curious to get your thoughts on this thread I have linked below, and see if anything in the OP video resonates with you; if so maybe you could chime in on that thread, thanks.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Why do you think it was never discussed? Were you not dying to discuss it with someone? This experience mirrors that of most abductees; extremely hesitant to talk about the experience; whereas debunkers will have you believing people who claim abduction are clamoring for fame, fortune and notoriety - when in fact the opposite is true. One of the logical conclusions of this is that abductions are severely underreported.

Shame?

Ridicule?

Trying to come to terms for something you can't explain?

I have thought about it many times in my 40s after shutting down from it for so long.

I want answers, but there is none.

a reply to: PlanetXisHERE

whereas debunkers will have you believing people who claim abduction are clamoring for fame, fortune and notoriety -

nah, just the abduction "researchers".