Powerful X1.6-class Solar Flare

a reply to: LDragonFire

Well I guess I better bring extra hot dogs, coffee and newly legal medication with me for the long haul then!

2014-09-10 19:43 UTC Recent R3 Solar Flare Active Region 2158, now near center disk, produced a X1 (NOAA Scale R3 - Strong) solar flare today at 10/1745 UTC (Sept 10th 01:45pm EDT ). Impacts to HF radio communications on the daylight side of Earth are expected to last for more than an hour. Initial information suggests that CME is likely associated with this event, but further analysis is underway at this time.

Standby for more details.

NOAA

Still waiting for the confirmation of a CME, but its likely.

Spaceweather must be overwhelmed because its really slow if it loads at all.

X1.6 meh


all the folk panicking about a carrington event mmm NO ok not even slightly
this is a moderately powerful Xray event the CME has not even formed yet
and even when or if it gets here its magnetic polarity has to be just right
to interact with earth's to produce effects we can detect on earth
like the power fluctuations and strong auroras.

this event is still "tiny " when NOAA or SDO announce an X20 + THEN its time to worry.

ETA the effects as seen today are moderate short term blackouts of short wave radio as a result of the Xrays
interacting with the ionosphere and is quite NORMAL in these events.

< sits up a little straighter at attention >

We just moved from the south (FL) to a northern state, so the timing couldn't be better. Odds are, I'll actually see the Northern Lights, and they could be goodies

Hey Mother Nature, let's just have a pretty show & not fry everything, though, ok?

Confirmed A CME is inbound:

EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE AND CME: Sunspot AR2158 erupted on Sept. 10th at 17:46 UT, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. A flash of ultraviolet radiation from the explosion ionized the upper layers of Earth's atmosphere, disturbing HF radio communications for more than an hour. More importantly, the explosion hurled a CME directly toward Earth. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory photographed the expanding cloud:

spaceweather

Radio emissions from shock waves at the leading edge of the CME suggest that the cloud tore through the sun's atmosphere at speeds as high as 3750 km/s. That would make this a very fast moving storm, and likely to reach Earth before the weekend. Auroras are definitely in the offing. Stay tuned for a more detailed forecast in the hours ahead.

spaceweather

a reply to: LDragonFire
Thanks for the update.

Those interested in seeing auroras

How they are made
youtu.be...

I can always tell when something is off in the atmosphere because my TV reception gets shaky (I have an old fashioned antenna). When it does it my wife gets upset and I say it has something to do with the weather and the atmosphere and she gets mad because there "inst a cloud in the sky". Well thank you sun for making my afternoon suck.

And I remember something about ISIS attacking the electrical grid this week or something. Who knew they controlled the sun...

Spaceweather.com is now saying that 2 CMEs are on their way and to expect 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on around the 12th of Sept.

originally posted by: shrevegal
Spaceweather.com is now saying that 2 CMEs are on their way and to expect 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on around the 12th of Sept.

Yes there are two CME.'s a solsr flare yesterday , m class, I believe and today's x class

I would look to the northern skies from thurs to sun.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

Seeing the Northern Lights is on my bucket list. I've always wanted to see them but it never works out. My eyesight is getting worse with each passing year. I hope I get to see them soon. Maybe this time ..

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.

How far south are you. I live in northern Wis so this will surely give a great northern light display, that's if we could go a few days without rain and cloud cover. Looking forward to it. I saw a show once that was so bright the lights were dancing in several different colors and covered the entire sky. I was a teenager then so it was pretty freaky to see. It was on September 11, 1986. At that time we, or I, didn't know that northern lights were caused by solar storms. As an adult I tried to do searches and see if I could find out if there were any great magnetic storms listed for that date but I couldn't find anything. There are many dates over the years where they have pinpointed these storms, but nothing for that date. I'm sure it had to be quite a storm for the lights to appear that bright. I've live up here in these woods my entire life and have seen a lot of great northern lights, but nothing even remotely close to the brilliance of that night.

originally posted by: TexasSeabee
I can always tell when something is off in the atmosphere because my TV reception gets shaky (I have an old fashioned antenna). When it does it my wife gets upset and I say it has something to do with the weather and the atmosphere and she gets mad because there "inst a cloud in the sky". Well thank you sun for making my afternoon suck.

And I remember something about ISIS attacking the electrical grid this week or something. Who knew they controlled the sun...

I can always tell because I feel really lethargic and woozy. No kidding. It's like those people who can tell rain is on the way because their shoulder/knee/left elbow aches... only it's my whole body and it's a cosmic event. I feel the feeling, then I read about it later. Go figure.

a reply to: new_here

I do believe we humans have the ability to know a bit more about our surroundings if we just paid attention more. My wife gets the pains in her shoulder where she had surgery before big storms. Do you think I could convince my boss the reason I'm not doing anything is the suns fault? Haha

Wasn't the Carrington event an X36 or something? If so this ones just a pup. If it were a major concern space weather would certainly be bleeping more. Great northern lights are for sure possible along with some radio wave transmission disturbance but nothing to get one's knickers in a knot about!

STORM WARNING: A pair of CMEs is heading for Earth. The two solar storm clouds were launched on Sept. 9th and 10th by strong explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158. NOAA forecasters estimate a nearly 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12th when the first of the two CMEs arrives. Auroras are in the offing, possibly visible at mid-latitudes before the weekend.. Aurora alerts:

spaceweather

I'm not sure if these CME's are going to hit at the same time, or back to back. I have no idea what to expect.

originally posted by: TexasSeabee
a reply to: new_here

Do you think I could convince my boss the reason I'm not doing anything is the suns fault? Haha

Oh give it a shot. Ya nevah know.
Actually, I think we should dream bigger and apply for solar-induced disability.

originally posted by: LDragonFire

STORM WARNING: A pair of CMEs is heading for Earth. The two solar storm clouds were launched on Sept. 9th and 10th by strong explosions in the magnetic canopy of sunspot AR2158. NOAA forecasters estimate a nearly 80% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Sept. 12th when the first of the two CMEs arrives. Auroras are in the offing, possibly visible at mid-latitudes before the weekend.. Aurora alerts:

spaceweather

I'm not sure if these CME's are going to hit at the same time, or back to back. I have no idea what to expect.

It says Mid latitude is possible. That's Sacramento California and up!

Looks like they are over us the 11th to the 14th.

I'll have to take a drive outside of town. City lights generally drown them out unless they are very active.

a reply to: Rezlooper
I've never seen the colours we see in pics. The first time I was in northern BC and saw white beams coming down from the sky, very strange, had no idea what it was. Went home to southern BC. And thought these beams are following me! The next time I saw them they were just wispy white ghost things and part of the sky looked maroon colour.