Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

i've noticed that ebola has 'gone off the boil' somewhat on the MSM in recent days...

Malaga Spain

The man was admitted for possible spread of Ebola remains isolated in the Hospital of Malaga The 40 year old man was admitted to the Regional Hospital of Malaga for possible spread of Ebola remains isolated. Health officials report that is expected to know the result tomorrow by the laboratory of the National Centre of Microbiology, Instituto Carlos III.
The 40 year old man admitted to the Regional Hospital of Malaga suspected of having Ebola continues isolated and with all the security measures established in the protocol provided and pending the outcome of the analytical to confirm or not the case.

Health officials have reported expected results released tomorrow by the National Reference Laboratory of the National Centre of Microbiology, Instituto Carlos III, although it could be today.

The patient, who had a high fever on admission and was recently in Nigeria, has had no further symptoms after their entry into the early hours of last Sunday.

LINK

Update on british Nurse William Pooley

Ebola nurse William Pooley well enough for bacon sandwiches British nurse William Pooley is 'doing well' and eating 'bacon butties' his father Robin has said.
The British nurse who contracted the deadly Ebola virus while working in Sierra Leone appears to be recovering and is even enjoying bacon sandwiches, his father said.

William Pooley has been in isolation at the Royal Free Hospital in London since he was flown back to Britain last month.

His father Robin Pooley said that he son was doing ‘pretty well’ and was even sitting up and eating ‘bacon butties.’

Mr Pooley, 29, is being given the same drug that was credited with saving the lives of two American missionaries .

It had been thought that supplies of ZMapp had run out, but doctors at the Royal Free managed to get hold of some from abroad and Mr Pooley was given the first dose 10 days ago. Further doses are expected to be given to him "in due course".

LINK

Germany patient suspected of having contracted the virus

A patient suspected of having contracted Ebola was admitted today at a clinic in Leipzig, said the hospital in this city in eastern Germany . It is a 45 year old businessman was about five weeks in regions of Liberia , one of the three countries affected by the epidemic of Ebola, and showing no specific symptoms of an infectious disease. A first test was negative Ebola and waiting for tomorrow the result of a second test, said a spokesman for the clinic. The patient was quarantined preventively. The people who had contact, his partner and their children are well and are being watched .

LINK

Update with patient in Sweden

The man placed in isolation order this weekend in Sweden does not have Ebola. The analyzes were negative, according to the regional health authorities in Stockholm. Speaking to AFP, the hospital indicated that it will will still perform some more tests to men of foreign nationality. Suspicion arose after the patient concerned had returned recently one of the risk areas with fever and was admitted to the Karolinska University Hospital, the Swedish capital.

LINK

Update in India

New Delhi: Six people deemed "high risk" Ebola suspects were Monday admitted to a quarantine facility at Delhi airport, health ministry said Monday.
The suspects were among 181 passengers who arrived in India from the affected western African countries.

As of today, the ministry said, as many as 816 passengers were being tracked by authorities under Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme.
These passengers are those who carried certain risk because of suspicion that they might have come in touch with Ebola victims and are being monitored to ensure that they are attended to in case they develop symptoms of the dangerous disease.
"Report has been received from state IDSP units of 18 of the 20 states about 80 passengers being monitored. One passenger, who is being tracked and monitored in West Bengal has confirmed to be having Malaria...," it said.

LINK

Saudi Arabia suspends visas to employees of countries by virus

The Saudi Ministry of Labor on Monday suspended temporarily issuing work visas for citizens of Liberia , Guinea and Sierra Leone , countries affected by the virus Ebola . The official Saudi news agency SPA reported that it is a preventive decision to tackle the spread of the virus in West Africa . These go hand in hand with the directives imposed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Health to prevent the importation of the virus in Saudi Arabia

LINK

Updates from today's news. Hope they will continue doing more tests than one of these patients. Spain case is a new one as seems to be the Leipzig case too. Saudi Arabia is making efforts to keep Ebola away from the country.

Hopefully this will help:

Japan creates 30-minute Ebola test

Some microorganisms are transmitted by more than one route:
Chicken pox – Airborne and Contact
Ebola- Contact, Droplet and Airborne

Standard & Transmission- based Precautions
Part 9: Transmission-based precautions
Michelle Bergin
ADON Infection Prevention/Control-Midlands
Region September 2014
Standard & Transmission-base

This appears to be a presentation that was published 3 days ago.

I think we will see more and more of this if they do not even feed the sick.

Ebola Patient Flees Clinic In Search For Food



If they can not even feed a couple of 1000 people they do know about then they have absolutely zero chance of stopping the spread.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

I just emailed the author for further clarification and will share whatever response I receive.

l
Mandatory infection prevention/control trainingProvider: HSE Midlands, Midland Regional Hospital, Tullamore
Location:
Board CEU: 2
Summary: Infection prevention/control training including standard precautions/hand hygiene
External Application: Yes
Contact Details:
Mary Michelle Bergin

source

She teaches infection control continuing education for health professionals, I think she knows what she's talking about.

She is only a nurse, not an expert on infectious disease...

www.nursingboard.ie...

She may be an expert on disease prevention, but she is not an expert on Ebola. Ebola is not airborne.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

Patient with Ebola-like symptoms isolated at St. Catharines hospital

A patient who had traveled from West Africa where Ebola is endemic is being isolated at the St. Catharines hospital with flu-like symptoms. A statement from Niagara Health System chief communications officer Brady Wood confirmed they are managing and testing the patient as part of heightened vigilance. Wood said the patient is currently stable.

LINK

Regarding the spread of the disease in Port Harcourt:

The doctor who treated him (the diplomat who accompanied Sawyer) became ill on 11 August. He continued treating patients at his private clinic for 2 days, operating on at least two of them. Between 13 and 16 August, he was ill enough that he stayed home, but, according to the WHO report, he received multiple visitors who came to celebrate the birth of a baby. On 16 August, he was hospitalized. He did not tell doctors there that he had been exposed to Ebola.

The WHO report is grim: “During his 6 day period of hospitalization, he was attended by the majority of the hospital’s health care staff,” it says, and members of his church community visited and performed a healing ritual that apparently involved laying on of hands. “On 21 August, he was taken to an ultrasound clinic, where 2 physicians performed an abdominal scan. He died the next day.”

Nigeria's Ebola outbreak spreads (italicized portion added by me)

Port Harcourt is a MAJOR commerce (primarily petroleum) center:

Port Harcourt is a major industrial centre as it has a large number of multinational firms as well as other industrial concerns, particularly business related to the petroleum industry. It is the chief oil-refining city in Nigeria and has two main oil refineries that process around 210,000 barrels of crude oil a day, both operated by the Port Harcourt Refining Company.[31][32] Rivers State is one of the wealthiest states in Nigeria in terms of gross domestic product and foreign exchange revenue from the oil industry, crude oil being its principal export earner. Face-me-I-face-you architecture is quite common in certain parts of Port Harcourt. The Point Block of Rivers State Secretariat is an icon of the city. An 18-story building, it is the tallest building in the South/South and South/East Geopolitical zones combined.

Wikipedia

This is not going to be good.

Ebola patient escapes quarantine in Monrovia. Hungry man searching food. Hospitals lacks basic needs like water and food.

“A patient suspected of suffering from the deadly Ebola virus left quarantine in Monrovia to search for food at a local market,” explains the video description. “The video shows him being chased and finally being caught by doctors. He is forced back into an ambulance while scared and angry crowds watched on. One local woman said care for Ebola patients was so inadequate they were not even being fed. "The patients are hungry, they are starving. No food, no water. The government need to do more," she said.

LINK

OMG.....that guy could have infected so many of those people.......on a side note...did that one guy look like Marc Wahlberg?

and people wonder why Doctors ans staff get infected,,,

I have seen people calculating the mortality rate by just dividing the reported deaths with the reported cases. (1900/3500 = .54) So a 54% mortality rate. But the WHO just released these numbers. So I’m assuming that the 431 new cases are people that are still sick and haven’t recovered or died yet. If just 50% of the current cases are destined to die, (2115/3500 = .60) that would be an overall 60% mortality rate.

Anyone see any numbers of total reported survivors? I wonder how many of the 1600 cases that have not caused the death of the infected person are survivors or are still fighting to survive.

My guess is the mortality rate is at least 60% and not the 50% that I keep seeing reported. Any thoughts?

This is probably not a good development for Liberia:

Liberia: Ebola Hits Police Barracks

The wife of one of the officers of the Police Support Unit (PSU) residing at the Barracks on Horton Avenue, Camp Johnson Road has... died from ...Ebola...

...showing Ebola symptoms for nearly a week until she left the Police Barracks last week to see her mother... for care.

...died at the home of her mother about two days ago. ...contact tracing team... reached a decision to quarantine... police barracks where she was residing.

...building is currently quarantined as officers residing... remain trapped inside... period of 21 days...

The officer whose wife died... was recently on assignment at the Headquarters of the LNP [Liberian National Police - ikon]. ...not known whether the entire headquarters will be quarantined...

SOURCE

So she was living in a police barracks with her police officer husband for about one week while symptomatic. That police barracks is now quarantined. And her husband was at the headquarters for the Liberian National Police (LNP) and they may have to quarantine the whole LNP headquarters.

It's worth noting that the LNP and the Liberian military are the primary non-medical people responsible for containing the outbreak in Liberia. And Liberia is currently the hardest hit of all countries with Ebola cases.

That's the Case Fatality Rate, not the mortality rate. People get them confused all the time.

a reply to: Richn777

Two people have been quarantined in the northern Italian city Padua over fears they have the deadly Ebola virus.

A Nigerian and a person from Istria, a peninsula in northern Croatia, were suffering from a high fever and symptoms similar to those of the virus, Il Gazzettino reported.
They were placed in isolation at the Azienda Ospedaliera di Padova, a university hospital in Padua, in the Veneto region.
The move came just a few days after health authorities in the region issued guidelines on how to deal with suspected cases of Ebola, which as of August 28th had claimed an estimated 1,552 lives, according to figures from the World Health Organization (WHO).

A spokesperson for the hospital was unavailable for comment when contact by The Local. There have been no Ebola cases in Italy since the an outbreak of disease began in West Africa. The disease has so far been contained to four countries - Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. Italy’s Health Minister Beatrice Lorenzin said earlier this month the risk of anyone catching the disease in Italy is extremely remote but that the vigilance level of the authorities is high.

LINK

FYI, I have updated some of the Ebola charts with the new data released by WHO today.

I'll update other charts as appropriate when I can, probably late tonight or sometime tomorrow.

I have a question for everyone - The WHO has been giving press releases with the numbers of infections and deaths. But they also say those numbers are "vastly" understated. So how vastly understated are the numbers. I've read it some articles that the WHO numbers are only 50% of actual numbers. I've also read the WHO numbers only represent 25% of the real numbers.

So what do you think the real numbers are? And how would the real numbers look like on Ikonoklasts charts?

a reply to: CatLady3912

From the consistent exponential trend of the WHO sampling since July, I would say the actual trend looks exactly like Iconoklast's trend just simply factored upward. Pick your factor 2, 3, 4 etc. As long as the sampling methodology itself is consistently applied, which due to the consistency looks to be the case, the trend is true to form. Otherwise we would see bumps like the early data or you would have to believe the WHO is fabricating the whole thing, highly unlikely from the anecdotal evidence and the independent news sources. The WHO is providing the best help it can currently afford by continuing this basic service until the developed world takes serious notice of where this is headed. How many weeks in a row do we have to hear Ikon's "update apology" for producing his successful, precise prediction curve until the numbers appear above the fold in the NYT or even on the ATS front page? Ten thousand by Halloween? 50,000 by Thanksgiving? 100,000 by Christmas? Then slap your factor on those.

a reply to: fwkitziger
I wasn't being critical. This thread is about speculations, and thats what I was asking for. A speculation of what the actual number must be, because for all the hoopla going on about Ebola, I can't conceive only 2,000 are dead. It must be much much more. And so I wondered what that would look like on Ikon's charts. I totally appreciate Ikon's chart.