Ebola: Facts, Opinions, and Speculations.

I didn't expect to see this quarantine getting lifted so quickly:

Liberia will end its quarantine of Ebola-hit neighbourhoods in capital city Monrovia tomorrow morning, the government has announced.

The coastal West Point neighbourhood will be opened up again at 7am (6am GMT) after residents cooperated with health checks and education seminars about the disease.

SOURCE: ITV News

Hopefully this is a good thing, not a bad thing.

a reply to: ikonoklast

IF the real numbers are in the 12,000 to 20,000 range then it was a futile exercise

a reply to: joho99

I also wondered if it could be because of civil unrest. I doubt Liberia has enough soldiers to contain 50,000 to 70,000 angry, hungry people scared they will die of Ebola or starvation if they cannot break out of the quarantine zone. How many soldiers would even stay on post if they were overwhelmed in numbers and frightened they would be exposed to Ebola?

The Rivers State Commissioner for Health, Dr. Samson Parker, says the late Dr. Samuel Enemou, who treated Olu Koye, a Nigerian diplomat with the Economic Community of West African States, was aware that the diplomat was a carrier of the deadly Ebola virus.

The commissioner stated this during a press conference in Port Harcourt on Friday evening.

Parker said, “He had received the late Dr. Patrick Sawyer in Lagos. Upon developing the symptom, confided in a female colleague, called Lilian, who contacted the late Enemuo. It was after contact was established with Dr. Enemuo that Olu Koye flew to Port Harcourt to see him.

“To conceal his movement, Koye, who had been quarantined among other people for having primary contact with the late Dr. Sawyer, the Liberian-American who transmuted the Ebola virus into Nigeria, sneaked out of the isolation unit where he was being observed and took a flight to Port Harcourt and switched off his phone so that he could not be reached or traced should he answer a call.”

On arrival in Port Harcourt, he said Koye checked into Mandate Gardens, a local hotel in the Rumunokoro area in Obio/Akpor Local Government Area.

The hotel is within the Rumunokoro area where Dr. Enemuo’s private health facility, Sam Steel Clinic is located.

Parker added, “From what we have gathered so far, Dr. Enemuo, knowing that Koye was positive of the Ebola virus took some measures of precaution to protect himself while treating Koye.

“Knowing the enormity of what he was doing, Enemuo upon Koye’s departure for Lagos, poured bleach all over the room that Koye slept in order to sanitise the place.”

Makes me wonder how many other people had contact with this man.

I don't think this will help:

Parker also said 60 more people who had secondary contacts with Koye were quarantined last night, bringing the total so far to 100.

Late doctor knew diplomat had Ebola virus –Rivers

Health workers have gone on strike at a major Ebola treatment centre in Kenema, eastern Sierra Leone... hospital staff told Reuters on Saturday.

"The workers decided to stop working because we have not been paid out allowances and we lack some tools," said Ishmael Mehemoh, chief supervisor at the clinic.

Clothing to protect health workers being infected from the deadly virus is inadequate and there is only one broken stretcher which is used to carry both patients and corpses, he added.

SOURC E: Reuters

I can fully understand why health workers would stop working under such conditions, but this sounds guaranteed to make things worse. The hospital in Kenema is one of the main hospitals involved from the beginning of this Ebola outbreak. If workers are not being paid, do not have adequate protective clothing, and are no longer working here, that's really bad.

And if they only have one (broken) stretcher to carry patients and corpses, that pretty much ensures that any patient coming in with possible Ebola will almost definitely get Ebola even if they didn't actually have it when they came in. No wonder people are afraid to go in to the hospital and no wonder people in the area are accusing health care workers of actually spreading Ebola to people.

Thank goodness, the Ebola test on the young girl from Gatineau, Quebec, Canada came back negative.

CBC

Suspected EBOLA case in Stockholm Sweden

A suspected case of Ebola infection have been discovered in Sweden.

A person who visited one of the countries risk has fallen ill with fever - and cared for now at the infectious diseases clinic at Karolinska Hospital.

- The risk is minimal that it is Ebola, but we are extremely strict in management, says Åke Örtqvist, Director of Disease Control in Stockholm County.

At 17:30 o'clock on Sunday sent a specially equipped ambulance to Solna to pick a man with Sweden's first suspected cases of Ebola.

The man had fallen ill with a fever, and when he recently visited a risk countries where the epidemic struck. Healthcare acted then, according to the action plan that the National Board has developed and the man has been transferred to the infectious disease unit at Karolinska Hospital.

***
"Not the first time"

Anders Tegnell, state epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency, said that it is not the first time that a suspected Ebola cases are being investigated.

- We have had some samples during this spring with suspected cases. All have been closed very quickly. It has been about people who have been in this part of the world and had a fever, says Anders Tegnell.

He is not surprised that yet another suspected case is now being investigated.

- We have talked about all the time and is entirely expected. It has happened in most EU countries already and we have said that had cases in Sweden before. It will continue that way and that's the way it should be. We are such an extremely high level of what is suspected to enable us to minimize the risk that something would turn up and we miss it.

AftonBladet

This thread on money and Ebola vaccine is important. Please read.
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola

Based on the known numbers.

Hi! All

For bilingual Spanish/English speaking people around ATS.

Full Ebola outbreak updated report translated into Spanish finished 31st Aug 2014.
Full medical document about how Vitamin C works -not cure- against Ebola virus.

Spanish /English speaking people in this English speaking forum?
If so, please, download and spread this full translation,
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mega.co.nz...#!xApk0RxK!IuTeDmokBtNo6jaOM5NqvA336gQGq9vFMC9dglCraBw

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Source: JimStonefreelance
pgs.: 100
pics: 89

Thx
:-)

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

More on the diplomat who took ebola to Port Harcourt:

The official of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) who took Ebola to Port Harcourt has been identified as Olu-Ibukun Koye.

Koye made contact with index case, Patrick Sawyer but later fled quarantine despite showing symptoms of the disease.

He travelled to Port Harcourt where he hired Dr. Iyke Samuel Enemuo to treat him at Mandate Hotel.

...

Enemuo’s wife and child have been quarantined and about 200 people have also been placed under observation.

Reports have it that Koye might face charges of manslaughter for his actions which led to Enemuo’s death.

Meet The Diplomat Who Took Ebola To Port Harcourt

I thought that once you became symptomatic, you were a bed ridden mess hardly able to move. How did this man manage to fly, book himself a hotel and arrange for a private doctor visit after he became obviously ill and highly contagious?

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

good Genes,,,were all different ,,and react differently too sickness,,

How did this man manage to fly, book himself a hotel and arrange for a private doctor visit


i hope that answer's your question of how.

As too why,,hmmmm

originally posted by: joho99
Disease modelers project a rapidly rising toll from Ebola

Based on the known numbers.

I was curious how Alessandro Vespignani's projections lined up with the projections I've made, so I overlaid them onto mine to see. Vespignani's projections only cover from July 6, 2014 through September 24, 2014, so they are the tiny box overlaid on my larger Chart 4 here (click to view full size):

And here a small section of my Chart4 is overlaid on Vespignani's projections so you can see similarities and differences more clearly (click to view full size):

Although Vespignani's projections cover a much smaller time segment, you can see that our independent projections overlap quite a bit for the same time period.

deleted accidental double post

a reply to: ikonoklast

which would qualify as a double blind, and therefore more likely too be correct.

correct as in true. or fact.

a reply to: BobAthome

I would say the two independent projection models definitely support each other. And the other projection model was done by Professor Alex Vespignani: Sternberg Distinguished Professor of Physics, Computer Science and Health Sciences at Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts, which is also a pretty good validation of the projection model I think.

Unfortunately, so far reality has been matching the projections. I keep hoping to see the curves of actual cases and deaths start to go down. So does Prof. Vespignani.

a reply to: joho99

Thanks for posting that link. I found it interesting on several levels. First, there were those who said no one (other than me) does projections like this, the math was very bad, and you can't do projections like this. Well, evidently Professor Vespignani, Sternberg Distinguished Professor of Physics, Computer Science and Health Sciences at Northeastern University in Boston, Massachusetts does and did do projections like this also, and in fact it's one of his areas of expertise.

And second, unfortunately, Prof. Vespignani's projections are similar to mine. And although they only published his projections through late September, he obviously has run the projections out further and seen the same thing I have, because the article says:

Extrapolating existing trends, the number of the sick and dying mounts rapidly from the current toll—more than 3000 cases and 1500 deaths—to around 10,000 cases by September 24, and hundreds of thousands in the months after that. “The numbers are really scary,” he says—although he stresses that the model assumes control efforts aren't stepped up. "We all hope to see this NOT happening," Vespigani writes in an e-mail.

SOURCE

a reply to: ikonoklast

well today is the first so , 10,000 cases by September 24.

Maybe a newbie can start a thread,,10,000 cases by September 24 Countdown Begins.

and we shall see.

Deleted accidental post - time for a holiday today, this is the second accidental post I had to delete today!

a reply to: ikonoklast

It would all depend on why they go down we may get lower numbers because of things like WHO shutting down labs like they have done already that will skew the numbers.

Or things like Sudan putting a blanket ban on reporting ebola.
Sudan bans reporting on Ebola

So not sure how WHO would include them numbers.


I am adding Sudan to my infection map because of that