Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

Ebola is scary #.

Up to a 21 day incubation period. There are week periods when a person is ill where they can spread the disease simply by touching something or being touched.

Not even an informed person in America would think "Oh I feel slightly ill today", lets quarantine myself and not touch anything and avoid all contact. Doctors who had a very long term understanding of the virus have died from it. Now it's doubling every week and is being found in areas with large populations.

These charts are bad news. Even if the outbreak continues on at the current pace for the next two months, tens of thousands of people will die. Within six months, approaching 1 million exposed.

What if it reaches the poor in a large urban population in India? Tens of Millions could die.

If I had the means I would be flying to West Africa to try and help. I think the US Military should send all of our NBC personnel and Biological Weapons experts to find people that are infected so they can be isolated and treated. We spend all that money on training and equipment to protect against dangerous Biological agents, now is a good time to use it.

a reply to: negue

I suspect the 'stretch' is an indication that the numbers are becoming harder to verify, which is to be expected as the numbers grow.

At some point, they'll have to switch mostly to estimates through sampling.

a reply to: ikonoklast

The current West African epidemic is spreading human-to-human - but - animals get Ebola too. One of the main carriers is the fruit bat whose range is shown below by the magenta dotted line. ...Any way you can factor fruit bat spread into your calculations?




ETA - Bad joke. Sorry. ...Have you seen this: now 3,500 cases reported to WHO with 1900 deaths. ....WHO cannot report cases unless the country does, and many nations like to cover up their 'troubles' for economic, political and other reasons.

originally posted by: negue
Just a heads-up: WHO says the death toll is 1,900+ www.abovetopsecret.com... out of 3,500 infected.
Nothing on their site yet.

So, um, prepare to spike the spike?

PS They're really stretching the updates. Last W Africa update was on Aug28.

Thanks for the heads up. I keep seeing the new approximate numbers from WHO mentioned in the news, but still no definite numbers and no official update on the WHO website.

The August 28 WHO update covered data through August 26, 2014. But I have seen the following numbers from other sources. WHO's numbers may differ when they come out.

--------------------

Totals as of 8/30/2014: 3588 cases and 1867 deaths
New cases during August 2014: 2148 new cases and 1041 new deaths
(Lexman55, if these numbers are correct, then your projection for new deaths in August was very accurate.)

Totals by country:

Sierra Leone as of 8/30/2014: 1190 cases and 435 deaths
SOURCE

Guinea as of 8/30/2014: 749 cases and 489 deaths
SOURCE

Liberia as of 8/29/2014: 1631 cases and 907 deaths
SOURCE

Senegal as of 8/30/2014: 1 case and 0 deaths
S OURCE

Nigeria as of 8/26/2014: 17 cases and 6 deaths
From the lastWHO Update on 8/28/2014.

Nigeria as of 9/3/2014: 18 cases and 7 deaths
SOURCE

-------------------

Since I've been trying to primarily stick to the official numbers from WHO, I have not updated the charts except for some test graphs so I could see what they look like.

But if these numbers are correct, it is indeed a spike. Liberia was already one big spike lately, but the bad news is that if these numbers are correct, there are big unexpected spikes for Guinea and Sierra Leone as well. Previously it looked like Guinea and Sierra Leone were making progress in containing the outbreak. Maybe not anymore...

originally posted by: ikonoklast

Totals as of 8/30/2014: 3588 cases and 1867 deaths
New cases during August 2014: 2148 new cases and 1041 new deaths
(Lexman55, if these numbers are correct, then your projection for new deaths in August was very accurate.)

Correction: I had a typo in my spreadsheet but it's too late to edit my previous post. Total deaths (if country numbers are correct) was 1837 as of 8/30/2014, which would be1011 new deaths in August.

Update: Some of the sources have added further updates which would indicate 3844 total cases and 1977 total deaths as of September 2, 2014 if the numbers are correct. As noted previously, these are not numbers from WHO. There is still no update from WHO posted. The WHO numbers may differ when they are posted.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Preliminary WHO report:

Recognizing the demand for updated numbers from this outbreak, the following information is being released in advance of the second update of this situation report.

As of 31 August 2014, 3685 (probable, confirmed and suspected) cases and 1841 deaths have been reported in the current outbreak of Ebola virus disease by the Ministries of Health of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

In Nigeria, there have been 21 cases and 7 deaths.

In Senegal, one case has been confirmed and there have been no Ebola deaths or further suspected cases.

a reply to: ikonoklast

It's only a matter of time, some researchers are warning, before isolated cases of Ebola start turning up in developed nations, as well as hitherto-unaffected African countries.

This is something ATSers havr been saying for weeks, even months, now and it is only recently being reported as being said in the scientific community.

The probability of seeing at least one imported case of Ebola in the U.S. is as high as 18 percent by late September, researchers reported Tuesday in the journal PLOS Currents: Outbreaks. That's compared to less than 5 percent right now.

As time goes by, it becomes more of a certainly; when, not if.

"What is happening in West Africa is going to get here. We can't escape that at this point," says physicist Alessandro Vespignani, the senior author on the study, who analyzes the spread of infectious diseases at Northeastern University.

To be clear, the projection is for at least one imported case of Ebola — not for the kind of viral mayhem afflicting Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

"What we could expect, if there is an importation, would be very small clusters of cases, between one and three," Vespignani says.

Recongize that name?

This is where I choose to differ from the experts, I do not think it will be as easy to contain here as they seem to think.

There's a 25 to 28 percent chance that an Ebola case will turn up in the U.K. by late September. Belgium, France and Germany will have lower risk. "But it's not negligible," Vespignani says. "Sooner or later, they will arrive."

The closer to Africa the more likely it is to show, and sooner.

The researchers calculated the impact of severe restrictions on flights from Ebola-affected regions. An 80 percent reduction in air travelers would do no more than delay the impact of Ebola by a few weeks. (A 100 percent choke-off of air travel is considered impossible.)

Impossible by choice.

"Unless you can completely shut down the transportation systems, these kinds of efforts will, at best, buy you a little time," Longini says. "And they can be quite counterproductive because you're interrupting the flow of help, goods and services. It can make the epidemic worse in the country that's being quarantined."

All commercial traffic should have been halted weeks ago and only allow aid/food/supply flights, but that was deemed too damaging economically.

A Few Ebola Cases Likely In U.S., Air Traffic Analysis Shows

As we predicted this thing is getting to far out of hand for them to acuaratly count, test, find, and treat. The reports of infected walking out of treatment centers and the 10s of thousands of contacts that would need to be traced and quarantined. The mass shortages of ppe and at this point medical staff. I've been trying to explained to family and friends and really anyone who will listen the potential that this has to be a global catastrphe for some time. Now I fear that this disease will circle the globe before the graphs flatten then start to fall again. I've watched doomsayers my entire life predicting global demise. This one however my brothers and sisters has got the overwelming potential to cut the worlds population by over half. Outside of mass extermination over a huge area and then redoubled efforts to contain I see no other way to stop this. It's ironic that I use to make fun of people for outlandish predictions like this. Now I'm the one cautioning people to head for the hills.

a reply to: soficrow

Thanks.

I'll be updating the charts as soon as I have a bit of free time hopefully this afternoon.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
a reply to: ikonoklast

It's only a matter of time, some researchers are warning, before isolated cases of Ebola start turning up in developed nations, as well as hitherto-unaffected African countries.

This is something ATSers havr been saying for weeks, even months, now and it is only recently being reported as being said in the scientific community.

...As time goes by, it becomes more of a certainly; when, not if.

...Alessandro Vespignani...

Recongize that name?

This is where I choose to differ from the experts, I do not think it will be as easy to contain here as they seem to think.

Yes, I do recognize that name and I also don't think it will be as easy to contain outside of Africa as some experts seem to think. Actually, I'm not so sure they really think that either. They are looking at the same numbers we are.

Experts are straddling a fence between trying to present numbers deemed reliable and trying not to cause global panic. This is purposeful. I've seen research that indicated that if people start to perceive that WHO and the CDC are covering up how bad things are, people stop believing anything they say and assume things are even worse than they actually are and panic can set in. But on the other hand, WHO and the CDC and the UN are very concerned that if people fully understand the situation panic could also set in.

A conscious decision has been made to try to be as up-front with the numbers as possible while trying to not cause panic, and you can see this in some of their papers and you can hear it in some of the interviews, testimony, and in the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) teleconference call I posted a link to in another Ebola thread.

Panic will only make things worse, it will start to strain and collapse social structure. This is already starting to happen in affected countries in Africa. I don't advocate panic, but I do advocate being aware of what is going on around us so that we are not blind-sided if the outbreak can't be reined in.

The graphic, to me, is eerily reminiscent of a scene in the old movie War Games, the scene where the computer games all the global thermonuclear scenarios and realizes all the scenarios lead to global annihilation. The flight graphic looks all too much like the graphic in that scene of all the missiles firing. Unfortunately, we don't have the option of "the only way to win is not to play the game."

Mighty fine thread and scary as heck... but as far as freaking out, I wouldn't start to really worry about the globe until the reports stop completely... and even then freaking out does nothing.

Wash your hands, suppress your coughs... and "duck and cover."

And Vit C... there's always vit C...

a reply to: ikonoklast

...Experts are straddling a fence between trying to present numbers deemed reliable and trying not to cause global panic. This is purposeful. I've seen research that indicated that if people start to perceive that WHO and the CDC are covering up how bad things are, people stop believing anything they say and assume things are even worse than they actually are and panic can set in. But on the other hand, WHO and the CDC and the UN are very concerned that if people fully understand the situation panic could also set in.

A conscious decision has been made to try to be as up-front with the numbers as possible while trying to not cause panic, and you can see this in some of their papers and you can hear it in some of the interviews, testimony, and in the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) teleconference call I posted a link to in another Ebola thread.

Panic will only make things worse, it will start to strain and collapse social structure. This is already starting to happen in affected countries in Africa. I don't advocate panic, but I do advocate being aware of what is going on around us so that we are not blind-sided if the outbreak can't be reined in.

The graphic, to me, is eerily reminiscent of a scene in the old movie War Games, the scene where the computer games all the global thermonuclear scenarios and realizes all the scenarios lead to global annihilation. The flight graphic looks all too much like the graphic in that scene of all the missiles firing. Unfortunately, we don't have the option of "the only way to win is not to play the game."

Yes.

You're a great role model.

I have updated some of the Ebola outbreak charts with the newest update from WHO that just came out today, September 4, 2014 (covering through August 31, 2014) and will update more of them later tonight or tomorrow. Again, sadly the new numbers do continue to match my projections all too closely. Once again they are just barely off the line projections in Chart 3 and are within the projection ranges in Charts 4 and 5. Again, I was really hoping the projections would be wrong, but so far they are not.

Click any graphic below to see it full-size.

Charts and future projections were done by me, not by WHO. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following WHO and New England Journal of Medicine websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

The numbers in the charts do not yet include the Ebola outbreak in the Congo. Currently that is believed to be a different strain and it is believed to be unrelated to this outbreak. If that situation changes or if the Congo outbreak is not contained, I may add it to these charts or create separate charts.

DISCLAIMER: Please do not do anything you might regret based on projections. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

Great work with these graphs. I thought, and said to a few when news of this outbreak hit the mainstream that this could be a major problem. Got looked at like I was a lunatic, but your data seems to be confirming my thoughts; unfortunately. Will be keeping an eye out for future updates.

a reply to: ikonoklast

a reply to: ikonoklast

Do you have a new R0? [Other past projections estimate the basic reproductive number to be in the range 1.5 − 2.0, like previous Ebola outbreaks. Seems that's changing?]

…..42 percent of all African ebola cases occurred in the last month.
Fauci says … in West Africa right now, the rate of infection is exponential, …. "The number of cases per unit time is dramatically increasing."

"That exponential increase indicates that the virus is now "beyond the interventions we have in place," Fauci says.

As promised, I have updated the rest of the current Ebola outbreak charts (Charts 7-14) with the newest update from WHO that just came out September 4, 2014 (covering through August 31, 2014).

Click any graphic below to see it full-size.

Charts were done by me, not by WHO. I am not an Ebola expert, epidemiologist, virologist, or MD, but I manually compiled the data used to create these graphs from news updates on the following WHO and New England Journal of Medicine websites:

SOURCE: WHO website 1

SOURCE: WHO website 2

SOURCE: WHO website 3

SOURCE: The New England Journal of Medicine

The numbers in the charts do not yet include the Ebola outbreak in the Congo. Currently that is believed to be a separate outbreak that is unrelated to this outbreak. If that situation changes or if the Congo outbreak is not contained, I may add it to these charts or create separate charts.

DISCLAIMER: Please do not do anything you might regret based on these charts. Hopefully efforts to contain, quarantine, treat, prevent, or cure Ebola will eventually be successful, and hopefully sooner rather than later.

a reply to: ikonoklast

Brilliant, of course. Thanks much. ....Anthony Fauci, director of NIH's National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases says the rate of infection in West Africa is now exponential, not linear. Do you have exponential projections from August 1 with the new infection rate? [Not to be pushy and demanding but I'd love to see them.]

....and btw - even WHO Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan is now on record saying, “It has become a global threat and we require urgent action."

The needle-like spike is painful to witness.
I hope it's okay to bump this thread, as it promotes awareness.

Here is a report put out by WHO dated today September 5, 2014. Some good info on this.

Two countries, Nigeria and Senegal, have now reported a case or cases imported from a country
with widespread and intense transmission.
In Nigeria, all cases in the transmission chain are linked to a single person who
travelled from Liberia to Lagos on 20 July. Among the contacts of this case, one
person travelled to Port Harcourt and was the source of further local transmission;
this transmission is at present limited to four cases. As a top priority, contact
follow-up, supported by the highest authorities, has been implemented in Lagos
and Port Harcourt.
In Senegal, one person, who travelled by road from Guinea to Dakar on 20 August,
tested positive for EVD on 27 August. 67 contacts are being followed-up; none of these
have tested positive so far.

This is turning into a full-time job to keep up with the new numbers:

World Health Organisation, WHO, has said the number of people killed in the Ebola outbreak has reached 2,097.

There have now been about 3,944 cases in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea, WHO confirmed on Friday.

The figures do not include cases in Nigeria or Senegal.

source