MH370 missing (Part 2)

Given the amount of actually data to work with, may be some major wrong assumptions are being made.

The result in official eyes is based only on some partially understood electronic device connections and 1 or 2 radar sightings that may or may not be on record. Occam's Razor would not go near this one.

Why a country(s) would spend the time and money searching without better cooperation of Malaysia seems strange. May be ego thinks it will find it despite the fact they may not be any where near the correct spot.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

There is an image of the 7 data points in this post, albeit with a bad resolution.
Those 7 points refer to the part after the last radar position.

The 14 numbers are not released, but Malasyia has the data.
I am sure of it, they might not have known how to use this data nor were they able to process it and therefore they have sent the data to the U.S where it was processed into usable data.
The BFO graph is the result of it, it is processed data that has been released.

Cannot believe how easy this has been forgotten, I had to search in my weekend newspaper for the tiniest little article on how the search has hit a snag 'again'! You don't hear about it on the news any more either?
A government stole this plane and probably murdered everybody on board and the news cant even keep the spotlight on it!

a reply to: qmantoo

Thanks for this link, very interesting

Let us not forget the simulation done by a pilot on pprune.org which showed that a pilotless aircraft would fly in line and go up and down in a sine wave kind-of altitude track and eventually hit the ground.

But that would mean a big influence the fuel consumption.
It was calculated that it had enough fuel for 7.5 hours, it did fly for almost 7.5 hours which is not possible if it was using more fuel.

Do we REALLY believe that the US and other countries do not know where the MH370 plane is now?

That is indeed hard to believe considering those radars in the area, not to mention, if the Malaysian plot is right, it also flew over Cocos Islands.

a reply to: sy.gunson

Ohh ok, thanks for the correction, i thought it was sent to the U.S
So the British investigation board has processed the data.

a reply to: sy.gunson

No, i'm not missing the point, but yes you say it more clear than me, "it is the frequency which indicates the velocity".

I know it contradicts the map, we have discussed it multiple times already.
It is not about who is right or wrong, it is about making sense of it by ruling out certain possibilities such as FL450 for example.
We have to assume they do not lie and thus the radar plot indicates the aircraft has been flying over the Malaysian peninsula and out of the Malacca Strait.
From there it is anybody's guess if it flew north or south, which speed it had and at what altitude it was flying until fuel starvation.

a reply to: roadgravel

Yes agreed, they must be quite sure of themselves to be spending so much time and money on the assumption that they know this location is where it eventually crashed.

We have several people or groups saying the data should be interpreted or adjusted in different ways. At this point, given the results (debris or pings), who wants to wager the interpretation has been correct. Not I.

Given the Malaysian stance, I would pack up and leave it to them unless they want to be more open. Between egos and national security of the rest of the world, the reality of what happened is not going to be let known any time soon.

If any reasonable person believes the US and a few other countries don't have a better info or outright know the answer then that person should at least realize the enormous waste of money being spent on intelligence and systems.

Just some reference material. Doubt it matters much in this one.

ICAO Letter of Intent to Require the Automatic Recording of Surveillance Data by Air Traffic Service (ATS) Units

Link to PDF

The Captain of JAL750 which took off from Ho Chi Minh (former Saigon) at 17:09UTC spoke with the co-pilot of MH370 (Fariq Abdul Hamid) "just after 17:30 UTC on 121.5 MHz. The Japanese Airlines captain said all sounded normal at that time.

Malaysia's Government says MH370 turned west at 17:21 UTC and dropped to 5,000ft to avoid radar and flew around like a fighter plane through the 7,000ft + altitude Titiswangsa Mountain range in darkness.

Now VHF radio is line of sight which means it does not follow the curvature of the Earth.

At 17:51 JAL750 was at 11:55N, 108.43E flying east at 32,000ft.



Enlarged

For JAL750 to be speaking to MH370 flying at 5,000ft then MH370 could not have been more than 306nm away. This places MH370 northeast of IGARI at 17:31 UTC and makes a nonsense of claims it flew west at 5,000ft.

The truth is MH370 never flew west through the Straits of Malacca

originally posted by: earthling42
a reply to: sy.gunson

No, i'm not missing the point, but yes you say it more clear than me, "it is the frequency which indicates the velocity".

I know it contradicts the map, we have discussed it multiple times already.
It is not about who is right or wrong, it is about making sense of it by ruling out certain possibilities such as FL450 for example.
We have to assume they do not lie and thus the radar plot indicates the aircraft has been flying over the Malaysian peninsula and out of the Malacca Strait.
From there it is anybody's guess if it flew north or south, which speed it had and at what altitude it was flying until fuel starvation.

Why do you assume Malaysia does not lie?

They have issued one load of false information after another and shifted goalposts more often than I have had a change of clothes.

By analysis of what they say one can prove their claims are false.

That is the whole point. The Burst Offset Frequency chart shows MH370 flying west when radar said it was flying east.

When they say it was flying south in the Indian Ocean the Burst Offset Frequency chart shows increasing frequency from 19:41 to 00:11 UTC indicating MH370 flew towards INMARSAT yet their map plot says the opposite.

If by this stage you still believe a word they say then that is an act of naivety.

originally posted by: roadgravel

originally posted by: sy.gunson

originally posted by: earthling42
About the raw data, it apparently consists of only 14 numbers.
These numbers were handed to Malaysia.

satellite-data-is-just-14-numbers

As i mentioned in an earlier post, there are two kinds of data derived from the handshakes, namely the ping time delays (arcs) and the BFO, out of the the 7 data points (handshakes) these form the 14 numbers.

The data was given to SITA by INMARSAT and from them to Malaysia who then asked the British AAIB to analyse the numbers and make sense of them. The AAIB actually made a nonsense out of them because they can not be used to plot any kind of sensible track.

Then how can your plotting be sensible?

I am critiquing what Malaysia claims in their graphs and their map plots which mutually disagree.

I did not create the BOF chart... neither did i release the map plot

originally posted by: sy.gunson

originally posted by: roadgravel

originally posted by: sy.gunson

originally posted by: earthling42
About the raw data, it apparently consists of only 14 numbers.
These numbers were handed to Malaysia.

satellite-data-is-just-14-numbers

As i mentioned in an earlier post, there are two kinds of data derived from the handshakes, namely the ping time delays (arcs) and the BFO, out of the the 7 data points (handshakes) these form the 14 numbers.

The data was given to SITA by INMARSAT and from them to Malaysia who then asked the British AAIB to analyse the numbers and make sense of them. The AAIB actually made a nonsense out of them because they can not be used to plot any kind of sensible track.

Then how can your plotting be sensible?

I am critiquing what Malaysia claims in their graphs and their map plots which mutually disagree.

I did not create the BOF chart... neither did i release the map plot

Good to know. I am beginning to believe the analysis has been in error since several people can create realistic theories that differ. Purposeful? Who knows.

I really have to think that the plane flying so long and not being tracked other than by electronic connections is pure BS. So a cover up is in progress. No airline passenger will want to know their plane can be downed for security reasons.

a reply to: sy.gunson

Why would they?
It is their arcraft, their state company and economy that suffers through the loss of this aircraft and how they have been handling the situation.
It must have been quite hard for the relatives who lost their loved ones, this will surely have a negative effect on the future of Malaysia airlines.
So they have more reason to come with answers and a coördinated search in an effort to find the plane instead of simply lying to everyone.

They clearly were not capable to cope with such a tragedy in the very beginning, and coöperation with neighboring countries seemed to be difficult as well.
Combined with the lack of knowledge about what happened with the aircraft and the speculation from China and Vietnam means that valuable time was lost.

The fact that the aircraft was not intercepted when it was seen on the primary radar must mean that this is not uncommon in that region, this could have made a difference for everyone on board of MH370.
And the location of the crash would have been known, also this information should have been known at day one.
Without sharing this information with the world, they expanded the search area to the Malacca Strait at March 9.
To me this shows how unsure they were and therefore denied that the aircraft had turned back while a seach was being conducted in the Malacca Strait.
This simply means they did not track the plane when it flew back over the Malaysian peninsula, but it was spotted above Pulau Perak.

When Inmarsat said it had flown for at least 5 more hours it became clear that the aircraft which they spotted could indeed have been MH370.

The only radar data they seem to have is the part above the Malacca Strait, the rest is made to fit the story and they did that in a way to not embarrass Thailand.
It might have been in Thai airspace while it flew towards the Malacca Strait, but we were presented with an image which showed that it flew from waypoint to waypoint.
Misleading? yes, lying? no, but combined with the notion that all communication seemed to have been switched off intentional, the reputation of the pilots who probably have been trying to save the life of every passenger on board has been dragged through the mud.
At first we only had the last arc (position of the aircraft at 00:11 somewhere along the arc) and the possibility that it flew either to the south or north.
Malaysia had all the data points, in a later stage when the BFO was added and a northern path excluded, the first plots were made and the search area moved to the Southern Indian Ocean.

I know you dont like to hear that it flew west and over the Malacca Strait, but that is what the evidence shows.

Now i am not discarding the possiblity that this whole story is simply a lie, if it is, it is not Malaysia who is lying but those who are behind the disappearance of this aircraft.
That is some food for thought

originally posted by: earthling42
a reply to: sy.gunson

Why would they?

Perhaps you should start by telling me why they would stage an arson attack inside their avionics hanger on 26 March to destroy maintenance records for MH370 and then threaten all staff with dismissal on 31 March if they communicated about the arson attack online?

Tell me also why Malaysian Police have not investigated nor arrested anybody for that arson attack?

Please tell me why the Malaysian Government will not even confirm publicly that there was an arson attack?

Please tell me why the Malaysian ruling party will not permit malaysia's parliament to debate MH370's disappearance?

.
Without sharing this information with the world, they expanded the search area to the Malacca Strait at March 9.

So you don't find the lack of transparency suspicious?

Again I say you are being naive.

This simply means they did not track the plane when it flew back over the Malaysian peninsula, but it was spotted above Pulau Perak.

Malaysia has two military radar stations on the east coast with 200nm+ ranges, one at Kuantan and another at Kohta Bahru, neither of which saw MH370 flying west from IGARI

I notice you have no answer why JAL750 spoke to MH370 after 17:30 UTC when Malaysia says it dropped to 5,000ft and flew west?

Something which was physically impossible from JAL750's position in Vietnam because of the range limitation on VHF radio. So you just ignore that because it does not fit your theory?

When Inmarsat said it had flown for at least 5 more hours it became clear that the aircraft which they spotted could indeed have been MH370.

The satellite handshake data from MH370 does not plot a track west through the Straits of Malacca. When corrected by Mike Exner for the frequency inversion by double transmission back to Perth it proves MH370 flew east.

If on the other hand you still believe in the BOF chart published by Malaysia on 24 March then that chart says MH370 flew towards INMARSAT when radar observed it flying east.

The only radar data they seem to have is the part above the Malacca Strait,

Which is actually just EMR343 on a normal commercial flight.

...the rest is made to fit the story and they did that in a way to not embarrass Thailand.

I love the flippant way you just casually accept they made the story fit. If they made the story fit then none of the story is reliable.

Misleading? yes, lying? no, but combined with the notion that all communication seemed to have been switched off intentional, the reputation of the pilots who probably have been trying to save the life of every passenger on board has been dragged through the mud.

The notion that communication equipment was switched off presumes that electrical failure is ruled out, yet you yourself pointed out earlier that the absence of altitude data from the transponder after IGARI may have signified a creeping electrical malfunction.

Malaysia had all the data points, in a later stage when the BFO was added and a northern path excluded, the first plots were made and the search area moved to the Southern Indian Ocean.

As you say they made the story fit. The BOF chart does not plot a path to the Ocean Shield search site because the "Velocity" or rather frequency increase on the BOF chart shows MH370 flying towards INMARSAT from 19:41 to 00:11 UTC, not away from it as plotted by the Malaysian Government.

I know you dont like to hear that it flew west and over the Malacca Strait, but that is what the evidence shows.

It has nothing to do with what I like. It has everything to do with lack of evidence, lies and contradictory evidence.

MH088 also spoke with MH370 after 17:30 UTC at the request of Ho Chi Minh ATC. I have taken the co-ordinates of MH088 and calculated the VHF radius from MH088 with another aircraft flying at just 5,000 feet.




If MH370 was flying west at 5,000ft from IGARI it could not have communicated with MH088.

The captain of JAL750 positively identified MH370 and said he spoke with the co-pilot of MH370. The crew of Mh088 say they also communicated with MH370 but got a garbled response. MH088 was further north than JAL750.

MH088 would not have been able to communicate with MH370 if it was south of Cao Mao Peninsula, the southern tip of Vietnam

a reply to: sy.gunson

Perhaps you should start by telling me why they would stage an arson attack inside their avionics hanger on 26 March to destroy maintenance records for MH370 and then threaten all staff with dismissal on 31 March if they communicated about the arson attack online?

Knowing it is a state company, it is easier and cheaper to just alter some papers

Undoubtly there is the possibility that the aircraft was not fit to fly, the ability to compete with other cheap airliners must come from somewhere, so likely money was saved through less or sloppy maintenance.
There was also an aircraft which had to divert from it's route because of a malfunctioning APU and an aircraft which had to return because of a malfunctioning landinggear.
That does not bode well.

So you don't find the lack of transparency suspicious?
Again I say you are being naive.

If they have nothing but a possible indication without knowing it for sure i can understand that they would wait until more evidence is gathered before they announce that it indeed flew above the Malacca Strait.

Malaysia has two military radar stations on the east coast with 200nm+ ranges, one at Kuantan and another at Kohta Bahru, neither of which saw MH370 flying west from IGARI

Yes they have, which means that if they had tracked the aircraft, they would have been able to provide the relatives and everyone else with the exact route flown by the aircraft, also they would not have been searching in de South China Sea for 4 days.

I notice you have no answer why JAL750 spoke to MH370 after 17:30 UTC when Malaysia says it dropped to 5,000ft and flew west?

I do, there was no communication.
www.pprune.org...

The satellite handshake data from MH370 does not plot a track west through the Straits of Malacca. When corrected by Mike Exner for the frequency inversion by double transmission back to Perth it proves MH370 flew east.

If on the other hand you still believe in the BOF chart published by Malaysia on 24 March then that chart says MH370 flew towards INMARSAT when radar observed it flying east.

It does not matter what i believe Sy, i do not say it is so, nor do i dismiss it as not so.
I'll be the first to admit that i do not know how they made that BFO graph, so i am not in the position to judge it or to judge the people who made it.
I can doubt it, but as i mentioned earlier, we first had the arc's, should we just dismiss them as a lie? on what base?

I like to keep an open mind until proven otherwise.

Which is actually just EMR343 on a normal commercial flight.

That is indeed possible, but this aircraft had a functioning transponder so the identity and other information was known.

I love the flippant way you just casually accept they made the story fit. If they made the story fit then none of the story is reliable.

That is because it has been altered many times, if it was known which route the aircraft had flown this would not be the case.
One thing i am pretty sure of, as you mentioned a few pages back, it flew directly to IGARI and the data from From FR24 indicates it was flying directly towards BIBAN after it passed by IGARI.
So far the flight was normal, but after that it is a great unknown as to how and where the aircraft flew.

The notion that communication equipment was switched off presumes that electrical failure is ruled out, yet you yourself pointed out earlier that the absence of altitude data from the transponder after IGARI may have signified a creeping electrical malfunction.

Not an electrical electrical malfunction but a problem with the pitot tube and static port.
They provide the main information such as speed, vertical speed and altitude.
Have a look at this page to see what i mean.

It seems as if it was switched off, but the transponder needs the pressure altitude to transmit the altitude information to the ATC.
What if the pilots wanted to switch to the second transponder after the transponder failed, only to found out that they had no other functioning transponder?
An aircraft has multiple ports and tubes, but does that mean nothing can go wrong? it has led to crashes before and if maintainance was sloppy, who knows.

originally posted by: earthling42
a reply to: sy.gunson

Perhaps you should start by telling me why they would stage an arson attack inside their avionics hanger on 26 March to destroy maintenance records for MH370 and then threaten all staff with dismissal on 31 March if they communicated about the arson attack online?

Knowing it is a state company, it is easier and cheaper to just alter some papers

You are truly naive...

So you don't find the lack of transparency suspicious?
Again I say you are being naive.

If they have nothing but a possible indication without knowing it for sure i can understand that they would wait until more evidence is gathered before they announce that it indeed flew above the Malacca Strait.

Your limited grasp of facts beggars belief

Malaysia did not wait at all. On day 4 of the search they thanked Vietnam and called off the search in Vietnamese waters and published a claim that MH370 flew IGARI-VAMPI-GIVAL-IGREX.

You never hear that claim anymore because there was never any evidence.

They also claim it flew to an altitude of 45,000ft. You never hear them repeat that claim either because there just was no evidence.

They have fabricated a story with tenuous claims which are not even corroborated by the INMARSAT BOF chart.

Malaysia has two military radar stations on the east coast with 200nm+ ranges, one at Kuantan and another at Kohta Bahru, neither of which saw MH370 flying west from IGARI

Yes they have, which means that if they had tracked the aircraft, they would have been able to provide the relatives and everyone else with the exact route flown by the aircraft, also they would not have been searching in de South China Sea for 4 days.

No, you assume.

Malaysia has repeatedly claimed MH370 dropped to 5,000ft to avoid radar (ie they never saw it fly west)

This is the coverage area. Malaysia has consistently said it did not see MH370 on radar east of the Malay Peninsula

I notice you have no answer why JAL750 spoke to MH370 after 17:30 UTC when Malaysia says it dropped to 5,000ft and flew west?

I do, there was no communication.
www.pprune.org...

The person you cite as "Lukesktoddler" is your witness? ... Really is that the best you've got?

You don't know who this person is, or even if he is really a pilot.
You don't even know that he was actually there.
All he says is he did not hear it.... That's your earth shattering evidence?

Are you being a comedian Earthling42 because your reply is laughable?

When somebody says they did not witness something that is not proof that nothing happened.
You still have not addressed the question how do you explain JAL750 talking to MH370 beyond radio range?

In your own words this time if you please...?

The satellite handshake data from MH370 does not plot a track west through the Straits of Malacca. When corrected by Mike Exner for the frequency inversion by double transmission back to Perth it proves MH370 flew east.

If on the other hand you still believe in the BOF chart published by Malaysia on 24 March then that chart says MH370 flew towards INMARSAT when radar observed it flying east.

It does not matter what i believe Sy, i do not say it is so, nor do i dismiss it as not so.
I'll be the first to admit that i do not know how they made that BFO graph, so i am not in the position to judge it or to judge the people who made it.

No but you defend them when they are clearly not telling the truth and you attack me for questioning their claims.

I can doubt it, but as i mentioned earlier, we first had the arc's, should we just dismiss them as a lie? on what base?

If you have ever bothered to read what I say (which I doubt) You would be aware I have always said the only two reliable pieces of information from the BOF chart are the location where it took off and the distance from INMARSAT at the last handshake.

I have always said all else in between is a work of fiction.

I like to keep an open mind until proven otherwise.

Then why do you come here and waste the time of people who want to know?

Which is actually just EMR343 on a normal commercial flight.

That is indeed possible, but this aircraft had a functioning transponder so the identity and other information was known.

The Butterworth radar track is primary radar which does not pick up civil transponders. Indonesia on the other hand tracked the same target and said it saw nothing which can be interpreted as MH370, because Indonesia was simply watching civilian airline traffic and nothing more.

I love the flippant way you just casually accept they made the story fit. If they made the story fit then none of the story is reliable.

That is because it has been altered many times, if it was known which route the aircraft had flown this would not be the case.

That is no justification for your flippancy. Nor is it an answer. You act as if it is not particularly relevant that Malaysia keeps changing the story yet you defend them saying there is no evidence Malaysia has lied.

You own attitude is bizarre and contradictory.

One thing i am pretty sure of, as you mentioned a few pages back, it flew directly to IGARI and the data from From FR24 indicates it was flying directly towards BIBAN after it passed by IGARI.

No its intended track was to BIBAN, It turned east 040 degrees and crossed BITOD.

The notion that communication equipment was switched off presumes that electrical failure is ruled out, yet you yourself pointed out earlier that the absence of altitude data from the transponder after IGARI may have signified a creeping electrical malfunction.

Not an electrical electrical malfunction but a problem with the pitot tube and static port.
They provide the main information such as speed, vertical speed and altitude.

They do not provide main information. They provide outside air pressure and a differential between oncoming air and static air pressures.

To have a problem with the pitot tube the pilots would have discovered that a long time earlier. There was no significant weather on the route and therefore no source of icing. Icing is the only way a pitot tube will contribute. The last conversation with JAL750 indicated no problems of that kind and that conversation could not have occured unless MH370 was well north of IGARI.

a reply to: sy.gunson

The pilot is a lot more credible than china who claims something which simply is not true

The aircraft did fly west over the Malaysian Peninsula, it did not fly your fantasy track which is contradictory to the arc's

I see you are just a stubborn man who insults everyone who does not want to listen to his truth.

Well Sy, the fact is you don't have the truth and seem to be very close minded to enquire into possibilities to rule them out eventually to come to the closest possible truth.
You only seem captivated with your fantasy plot and insult everyone if they do not agree.

I have news for you, your plot is nothing but rubbish

The captain of JAL750 positively identified MH370 and said he spoke with the co-pilot of MH370. The crew of Mh088 say they also communicated with MH370 but got a garbled response

Is there a source for this info. Early on it was said a JAL flight had a garbled conversation and I don't recall any statements of good comm with the flight.