Russia declares war on Ukraine. Live updates from inside Ukraine

Xcathdra
reply to post by DJW001

 

Russia has dropped a lot of money trying to hold the ruble stable on the world market. When this mess first started and the 1st round of sanctions hit, Russia had to spend close to 10 billion to reinforce the Ruble. They pinned some of their hopes on Germany taking a position against sanctions and I don't think that worked out to well.

I think Russia feels that they have Europe over an economic barrel, and to an extent they do. However, I don't think Putin considered the possibility that Europe would have taken the option that hurt them economically. I also think the gas supply issue to Europe was over played as well.

No one is going to walk away from this without injury. How painful those injuries are though is Putin's choice.


reply to post by dragonridr

 

There have been discussion among Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan about replacing local currencies with a new one.

edit on 15-4-2014 by Xcathdra because: (no reason given)

Well look at the facts two of the worlds largest gas suppliers are in Europe BP and shell they will find away to get supplies. It may cost more but they wont go without thats for sure.

reply to post by dragonridr


According to Russia's own Finance minister, capital flight is already underway to the tune of $63Bn:

Linky 1
Linky 2

And Russian economic growth has effectively stalled from a rate of 4.3% to almost 0% in the last quarter. The sanctions are biting already and the West has only just got started.... Russia cannot keep this up for long - they are either going to have to go all in or fold.

reply to post by dragonridr


Quite - Qatar and to a lesser extent the US are ready to supply LNG. The UK already gets a good haul of gas via LNG terminals from the Middle East, so we could easily up the importation then pipe it back to the continent.

Russia relying on holding the EU to ransom with gas has spectacular backfired. Their timing sucks as well, they should have played this game before Winter, not Summer.

clay2 baraka

asen_y2k

Myroslava Petsa @myroslavapetsa #Crimea puppet governor Aksyonov says #Putin said no to his request for sending Russian troops to Ukraine, warns of danger of III World War 11 mins ago 18 retweets |

Sounds like Obama gave him an ultimatum during their talks the other day..

I believe he threatened there remaining banks see the US locked out one bank using the excuse it did business with people on the list of sanctions.II think this was a warning shot so to speak because it effectively turned that bank into a local bank and locked it out the world market.Even went as far as locking it out of Visa and mastercard transactions alot of there customers found out there cards stopped working. Other banks in Russia are fearful the same thing will happen to them.So my guess is that was the threat either directly or indirectly implied.

stumason
reply to post by dragonridr

 

According to Russia's own Finance minister, capital flight is already underway to the tune of $63Bn:

Linky 1
Linky 2

And Russian economic growth has effectively stalled from a rate of 4.3% to almost 0% in the last quarter. The sanctions are biting already and the West has only just got started.... Russia cannot keep this up for long - they are either going to have to go all in or fold.

Correct assessment ..

Putin has gotten in the ring with the big boys way before he was ready.

Also it seems unlikely that Putin will go for broke.. he has too much to lose personally
and that's what counts most to "comrade" Putin.

stumason
reply to post by dragonridr

 

According to Russia's own Finance minister, capital flight is already underway to the tune of $63Bn:

Linky 1
Linky 2

And Russian economic growth has effectively stalled from a rate of 4.3% to almost 0% in the last quarter. The sanctions are biting already and the West has only just got started.... Russia cannot keep this up for long - they are either going to have to go all in or fold.

Yes i agree there is a problem though if Russia does actually invade they have to end it quickly they dont have the resources for a sustained conflict. And to give you an idea we are talking less than a week to take Ukraine. I know Putin was told this and im sure that is a large part of his reluctance hes simply not sure if Ukraine would just roll over or not? Tell you the truth neither am I.

Iran also stated that it is ready to supply natural gas to Europe.

"Iran has the biggest gas reserves in the world. We don't want to compete with Russia. We know that Europe's demand for natural gas is growing, and we just want to get our share (of the market)," he said in an exclusive interview with leading German-language business newspaper Handelsblatt in Berlin on Monday. He noted that the Islamic Republic could be a "reliable and long-term" energy partner for Europe. Nematzadeh further stated that Iran is currently working on a large-scale project to build a gas pipeline that will supply natural gas to the Turkish border and further to Western countries. On April 6, Iran's oil minister said production capacity of the country's giant South Pars gas field will increase by 100 million cubic meters per day in the current Iranian calendar year (started March 21, 2014). Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said that the majority of the units related to the prioritized phases of South Pars, including phases 12, 15, 16, 17 and 18, will start production this year. The oil minister emphasized that all the aforesaid units must start production before winter. South Pars is part of a wider gas field that is shared with Qatar. The larger field covers an area of 9,700 square kilometers, 3,700 square kilometers of which are in Iran's territorial waters (South Pars) in the Persian Gulf. The remaining 6,000 square kilometers, referred to as the North Dome, are in Qatar's territorial waters. The Iranian gas field contains 14 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, about eight percent of the world's reserves, and more than 18 billion barrels of LNG resources.

rigel4

stumason
reply to post by dragonridr

 

According to Russia's own Finance minister, capital flight is already underway to the tune of $63Bn:

Linky 1
Linky 2

And Russian economic growth has effectively stalled from a rate of 4.3% to almost 0% in the last quarter. The sanctions are biting already and the West has only just got started.... Russia cannot keep this up for long - they are either going to have to go all in or fold.

Correct assessment ..

Putin has gotten in the ring with the big boys way before he was ready.

Also it seems unlikely that Putin will go for broke.. he has too much to lose personally
and that's what counts most to "comrade" Putin.

Though he would lose personal wealth i think to a large extent Putin is an idealist.So im not sure i agree he may make a sacrifice if he suspects his ultimate goal can be reached.

DJW001

On the other hand, the ruble continues its race to irrelevance.

Actually, the rouble's fall is to be expected, due to the fact that the sanction hit Russian bank, the Rossiya, has made the move Putin was waiting on opportunity to do, and the sanctions gave him it...and that was to detach the rouble from the US dollar. Rossiya is now dealing only in roubles.

Russia, at its present stage of development, should not be dependent on foreign currencies; its internal resources will make its own economy invulnerable to political wheeler dealers...We have been moving towards wider use of the Russian rouble as the currency of settlement for a long time. The ruble became fully convertible quite a long time ago. Unfortunately, we have seen predominantly negative consequences of this step so far revealed in the outflow of capital from this country. The influx of foreign investments into Russia has been speculative and considerably destabilizing to our stock markets.

www.globalresearch.ca...

Is it any wonder that the rouble has seen modicum fall while the system adjusts to the detachment from the US dollar? It will rebound back to a healthy situation, and especially so when investors see how more stable and less personal fortune threatening it is than the US dollar. Being attached to the US dollar is being at the mercy and whim of American financiers, look what they did to us all in 2008!

This is the reason why the West is vilifying Russia and Putin, the Ukraine is just the #e in the pot the West is stirring to make Russia smell bad.

reply to post by dragonridr


NATO's own assessment seems to think Russia could "achieve it's objectives" (take that how you will) in 3-5 days. That is, of course, assuming that they Ukrainians don't put up one hell of a fight. Personally, I think the Ukrainians would fight, but the country is so vast and their army so comparatively small that they'd be blitzed in short order no matter how doggedly they fought.

elysiumfire
DJW001

On the other hand, the ruble continues its race to irrelevance.

Actually, the rouble's fall is to be expected, due to the fact that the sanction hit Russian bank, the Rossiya, has made the move Putin was waiting on opportunity to do, and the sanctions gave him it...and that was to detach the rouble from the US dollar. Rossiya is now dealing only in roubles.

Russia, at its present stage of development, should not be dependent on foreign currencies; its internal resources will make its own economy invulnerable to political wheeler dealers...We have been moving towards wider use of the Russian rouble as the currency of settlement for a long time. The ruble became fully convertible quite a long time ago. Unfortunately, we have seen predominantly negative consequences of this step so far revealed in the outflow of capital from this country. The influx of foreign investments into Russia has been speculative and considerably destabilizing to our stock markets.

www.globalresearch.ca...

Is it any wonder that the rouble has seen modicum fall while the system adjusts to the detachment from the US dollar? It will rebound back to a healthy situation, and especially so when investors see how more stable and less personal fortune threatening it is than the US dollar. Being attached to the US dollar is being at the mercy and whim of American financiers, look what they did to us all in 2008!

This is the reason why the West is vilifying Russia and Putin, the Ukraine is just the #e in the pot the West is stirring to make Russia smell bad.

Ok your just showing a complete lack of understanding of the financial markets. No country wants to invest in a country with a failing currency. Look at mexico typical example. As far As US currency What detachment are you talking Russia this occurred long before this but Russia ended up still having to get US dollars to pay for imports so there detachment was a farce. See They attempted to use gold but the problem is alot of countries dont want to deal in moving gold so instead they use banknotes. Only problem is Russia will be locked out of this if there not careful. See when you see articles like that they have no understanding of banking in general they look at one small aspect and try to predict the global market. Its kind of like seeing two bees and from that trying to tell what the entire beehive is doing.

stumason
reply to post by dragonridr

 

NATO's own assessment seems to think Russia could "achieve it's objectives" (take that how you will) in 3-5 days. That is, of course, assuming that they Ukrainians don't put up one hell of a fight. Personally, I think the Ukrainians would fight, but the country is so vast and their army so comparatively small that they'd be blitzed in short order no matter how doggedly they fought.

The military would need to hold out and do damage not a direct fight this isnt going to be a world war 2 battle at all. If it goes longer than a week Russia couldnt keep the supplies coming. I think the key factor would be Ukrainians themselves are they willing to fight to keep their country or will they hide in there homes? As i said im not sure if they will or wont and i dont think Putin is either. I said earlier if Ukrainians were to literally get out on the streets much like the pro russian crowd this thing would already be over. But i think they believe their government will handle it and i have zero faith thats going to happen.

reply to post by stumason


Yes the timing is bad to use gas pipes as a weapon and if Russia had planed the unrest in the Ukraine then they would have done it last september which leads to only one conclusion.

Now lets think about this crash for one second because if Russia has lost, well lets say 50% but it has managed to bump the worlds market down by, well I don't know 5% then Russia has lost, well lets guess $1tr and the rest of the world has lost $20tr

The only ones I see licking their lips has got to be China who might want to replace Russia as a trading partner in the west and so far they seem to be wining at this game of monoply so we end up with a dragon instead of a bear and who knows what a hungry bear will do.

I think it is a little too soon to speak about victory over a bear who can live for months without eating and has a warm winter coat whilst standing next to the gas switch because if he turns it off then industry in the west will suffer and if he flicks it to feed china that then takes up the slack in the west then down the road we have lost any chance of winning a prolonged battle.

Germany once made the mistake of thinking they could starve the residence of Russia to death but unless they can force the international price of gas down then Russia stands to gain and Europe is not going to let the USA tell it that it can buy gas at $10 due to a shortage if Russia is selling at $8 and the winter starts to move in.

dragonridr:

No country wants to invest in a country with a failing currency.

As much as I love your avatar, it amuses me to see you insisting that the Russian rouble is a failing currency. It isn't failing, it is adjusting. Semantics aside, I feel I am reasonably conversant in how financial markets work. Once the Ukraine crisis has passed I predict the Russian rouble to revive what it has lost, and to see a reverse in the negative trend that was caused by the influx of foreign investment into Russia using other currencies that were destabilising.

Some posters have questioned why Russian banks haven't done anything to prop up the rouble? Obviously, the reason is because the rouble isn't failing, and the banks don't see it as doing so. The rouble is, as I believe, adjusting, and the banks are letting it find its own settlement before taking any action, if action becomes necessary.

If you truly want to see a failing and worthless currency, one that will take a dive in the future, if your American, just look in your wallet, and reflect on what I quoted of you at the beginning of this post.

I noticed on rt that there had been four party talks scheduled which may now be cancelled. The four parties being Russia, EU, Ukraine and USA. It crossed my mind that why are America involved at all? These people are mental...Kerry and Mccain. We have that bombastic little non entity William Hague prancing about the party. I heard a rumour America was considering sending weapons to the Ukranians...I'm sure that can't be true.

VirusGuard:

Europe is not going to let the USA tell it that it can buy gas at $10 due to a shortage if Russia is selling at $8 and the winter starts to move in.

Nice perspective. Guess what? If Europe wants to buy gas from Russia, it has to pay in roubles...not US dollars. The rouble will revive, and investors will see the wisdom in it all, as will other countries. Detaching from the US dollar is what will save global finance, and protect it from crooked American financiers and their other Western counterparts.

Of course, at this moment in time, Western countries are ignoring the request of Russia to pay in roubles and I think are putting pressure on Putin to allow them to pay using the dollar, but Putin isn't having any of that. I hope he stands on principal, and stays true to his currency ambition, because other countries will eventually follow suit, and trade in their own currencies, taking a hit initially, but reviving ultimately. The world needs to end the reign of the petrodollar.

#Ukraine Deputy: #Putin gave order to #Russian military "green men" in eastern Ukraine to "dissolve and disappear" but not to stop operation

Looks more like propaganda.

elysiumfire


Nice perspective. Guess what? If Europe wants to buy gas from Russia, it has to pay in roubles...not US dollars. The rouble will revive, and investors will see the wisdom in it all, as will other countries. Detaching from the US dollar is what will save global finance, and protect it from crooked American financiers and their other Western counterparts.

This article appears to agree with you.......

kingworldnews.com...