Ebola cases jump 30% in 4 days says WHO

"That's like saying your pet tiger is under control," he told reporters. "A couple of burials go wrong in a couple of places, and you start a whole set of new transmission chains and the disease starts trending upward again."

People may want take note here, this is the reason why Ebola is only still a real issue in parts of Africa. You have to basically throw yourself at deceased Ebola victim's body to actually get it.

When common sense is applied, Ebola basically dies out.

For this reason alone it will never be a worldwide killer. Not very hard to figure out either.

originally posted by: tranquilone666
a reply to: Phage

Phage, question for you.
Is it a possibility that a large number of infected people traveling into the US for access to our 8% mortality rate could overwhelm our medical systems? The only thing I would think keeping us from the same fate is our medical facilities.

Possibly infected people have repeatedly broken quarantine, with a large number of possible/ confirmed infected, a large number of refusals to quarantine could spread the infection couldnt it?

Omg, are you for real? This post......

There have only been a handfull of Ebola cases outside of Africa, only 8 % died. You really think this is a statistic that somebody in Liberia is aware of and thinks "I have Ebola so I must get to the USA where I have 92% chance of surviving once I cross the border.I am feeling a little under the weather but I'm going to board this rusty vessel to cross the ocean, arrive in Mexico, then cross the border into the USA and make use of their medical facilties while being there illegally, that is, if I am not dead a few weeks ago.

Off course infected Liberian zombies spreading the disease to the good ol US of A sound very exciting but I think someone is not really thinking through his replies.

a reply to: HappyThoughts

Completely right. I just typed away without even a thought about the words flowing forth from my brain to my fingers to my keyboard. I just decided, ya know what? Im going to as the least thought out question possible.

I have to say that while an amazing community, fellow ATSers can be quite rude. If I thought that I would get accused of flag mongering, fear mongering and not even thinking before I replied I wouldnt have posted the article. Kind of disheartening for a new member.

a reply to: tranquilone666

Well you live and you learn.

a reply to: tranquilone666

I have to say that while an amazing community, fellow ATSers can be quite rude. If I thought that I would get accused of flag mongering, fear mongering and not even thinking before I replied I wouldnt have posted the article.

ATS is kind of like high school.

You'll find people you get along with, people you don't, and people that are argumentative and mean just for the heck of it. Right now, there are a handful of people that claim flag mongering on every single thread Ebola related. You'll also run across people that claim star mongering if you disagree with them or provide an argument with sources that they can't refute. Luckily, these people are a small minority here.

Don't let them ruin your ATS experience. They don't represent the vast majority here, and there will always be people who agree with your views and will defend you. This diversity of opinions and people, and the level of respect and grown-up debates that usually prevails, make ATS a great community.

a reply to: tranquilone666

Latest reports I read (which were only yesterday) were saying that the number of cases & deaths is down on average (In Monrovia, Liberia anyway).

This link says: Huge drop in Ebola bodies across Monrovia

www.news24.com...

This one says: WHO: Liberia’s Ebola Infection Rate Declines

www.voanews.com...

And this one says: WHO: Ebola decline in Liberia
could be real trend

www.thejakartapost.com...

When speaking of "number of cases" there needs to be a distinction between accumulative and current.

I'm still waiting until the end of the year before coming to a conclusion of what is going on with Ebola.

a reply to: halfpint0701

On the other hand, some people are fearmongering, on purpose or not, and people are posting stupid things. I guess pointing it out makes you mean or rude.

Don't let them ruin your ATS experience. They don't represent the vast majority here, and there will always be people who agree with your views and will defend you.

Yes that´s what´s important, that people agree with you, no matter if you are wrong or being stupid.

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: tranquilone666

Nutshell answer: no, I don't think so. We will not have an ebola apocalypse.

Well, that settles it then. The Great Phage has spoken.

Or, some people have a bit of cognitive dissonance about the dangers. Stating it won't happen doesn't make it so and it's not a matter of which is more infective or lethal; we'll still get all the deaths from the flu, and now add in the possible deaths from Ebola, if that's indeed what this is. There's a lot of anomalies to the Western version of what people seem to be getting; they don't look like they've been sick afterwards, for one thing; no evidence of the rashes and bruising that are an almost universal second symptom of Ebola, for one thing.

Why pray tell was the CDC and individual researchers and virologists writing long warnings about Ebola dating back to the 1970s when it was first discovered that one or another of the 'emerging diseases', or another Spanish or Bird Flu outbreak was a question of 'when, not if', and that's what kept them up at night in abject horror at the possibilities? We're way overdue for another pandemic and what with global air travel, incredibly high population densities, open borders and clueless officialdom, it really is a question of time.

Our time isn't 'special' or immune and I know from experience, just a few flu patients alone can completely overwhelm a big city hospital; Ebola will shut them down in hours flat. Then you're not much different from the African health system, except with clean water and working toilets, and many of our vaunted 'western medicine health care supplies' come from China and Japan. Good luck getting extra shipments of that stuff if the problem goes global.

In other words, we'll find out how this is going to play out over the next several months, no amount of either hand-wringing OR denial will change whatever's coming, and if the past is prologue, the outbreaks will come in waves. Just another disease to add to the list, but this time it's a particularly nasty one.

originally posted by: signalfire

originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: tranquilone666

Nutshell answer: no, I don't think so. We will not have an ebola apocalypse.

Well, that settles it then. The Great Phage has spoken.

You know, Phage is 100% accurate every time he has predicted no Apocalypse, no Apocalypse.

Just saying.

a reply to: signalfire

We're way overdue for another pandemic and what with global air travel, incredibly high population densities, open borders and clueless officialdom, it really is a question of time.

So what is Ebola waiting for? Why would it happen if hasn't happened yet sofar?

originally posted by: Boomy327
a reply to: tranquilone666

Total Cases: 13703*

Total Deaths: 4922

originally posted by: stardust22

How is it even possible that the death count is that low?

Here are a few things that have to be considered:

1. At least in part, it's because the number of Ebola cases is doubling approximately every month, so almost half of those cases were new in October. In fatal cases, it takes about 6-16 days from the start of symptoms to death. 3512 cases were new in the 6 days prior to the update, 4802 in the 16 days previous to the report, so it's too soon to know for many of those cases what the outcome will be. But looking at current reported deaths versus the case numbers 6-16 days previous, that would put the case fatality rate around 50%, give or take a few percentage points.

2. Liberia's Ministry of Health also drastically downsized the number of reported deaths by 602 overnight between October 21-22, 2014, although WHO doesn't seem to have reduced the reported deaths by quite as much for Liberia.

3. WHO has stated that the fatality rate is approximately 70% still. But that's for patients where Ebola is clinically confirmed and they know the clinical outcome (death or recovery). It's not completely clear why there is such a large discrepancy in the percentages, especially in countries where the percentage of cases that are clinically confirmed is high. Is it a lack of records or inability to keep up with records? Are many leaving treatment facilities prior to a known outcome and not being tracked? Or what?

a reply to: HappyThoughts

This poster made a good point and I agree with them. Anyone with the means and money is going to flee West Africa if this continues to spread. This is common sense and I know it is a hard thing to come buy in today's world.

originally posted by: HappyThoughts
...Ebola is only still a real issue in parts of Africa. You have to basically throw yourself at deceased Ebola victim's body to actually get it.

When common sense is applied, Ebola basically dies out.

For this reason alone it will never be a worldwide killer.

It doesn't seem to be dying out. I keep hoping to see it dying out, but so far it's pretty relentless. I hope it doesn't continue at this pace, because the projections (if nothing changes) aren't good. The longer it continues, the more difficult it will be to control and halt.



Ebola - my visual charts & projections based on WHO data

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

See page 1 of this thread.

originally posted by: HappyThoughts
a reply to: signalfire

We're way overdue for another pandemic and what with global air travel, incredibly high population densities, open borders and clueless officialdom, it really is a question of time.

So what is Ebola waiting for? Why would it happen if hasn't happened yet sofar?

Are you using translation software or what. This poster is right pandemics do happen and can happen again. Listen to what the doctors at the CDC say about potential pandemics. Ebola good be a big deal or it could burn itself out. The path it is currently taking is a little scary. Exponential growth of this disease is a big deal.

originally posted by: HappyThoughts
a reply to: tranquilone666

Well you live and you learn.

It seems you joined ATS to Troll.....am I right or what. If you want to call out other posters the best way is facts and figures and putting forward your version of the truth in a well thought out way. Not snarky one liners.

originally posted by: ArmyOfNobunaga
a reply to: tranquilone666

I would counter you with this


EBOLA ON THE DECLINE

*snip*

Ebola is dead... get over it people.


cheers

A quote from your very source,"

Cautioning against reading too much into the decline in Liberia, Aylward said that any let-up in the response could allow the disease to surge again.

"Am I hopeful? I'm terrified the information will be misinterpreted and people would start to think, oh great, this is under control," he said. "That's like saying your pet tiger is under control."

Hmmm, I think you should go and pet your tiger.

a reply to: SubTruth

Are you using translation software or what.

Can you just answer the question you responded to?

a reply to: SubTruth

It seems you joined ATS to Troll.....am I right or what. If you want to call out other posters the best way is facts and figures and putting forward your version of the truth in a well thought out way. Not snarky one liners.

Whatever you say bub.

What did I say that was not factual then? If you want to call me out for trolling at least back it up you know.