Quake Watch 2014

oops wrong Topic,
was meant to be over here

while I'm here,
that 8.2Mw = radiated energy released of 30,089,039.47 Tonnes of TNT
phew!

Time to start counting over - the record breaking 25 days (?) overdue for a 7 or above has stopped, and a new outside number has been established. When it's too quiet for awhile it definitely is worrisome but the earth is clearly coming out of its lull.

Oh that is interesting, I saw a rainbow sky last night just before dusk. I was looking in the direction of ESE (direct line to Chile). Thought last night there was going to be a big earthquake in our country, as I have seen it before other large earthquakes.

PuterMan

OK, so a little earlier than anticipated for the Chile one - I had around the 14th in mind. Now I guess I shall have to wait and see about Santa Cruz/Vanatu and keep my mouth shut in future.

edit on 1/4/2014 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

NO WAY PUTER MAN.

Ain't now way we are allowing you any grace to keep your mouth shut or your fingers silent. LOL.

We'd have to slap your hands silly or revoke your Master Quake Jockey status or something terribly drastic even for hinting seriously that you'd be shutting up.

Ain't no better than you and muzzy, imho.

And those of us who have learned that experts are merely drips under pressure are NOT AT ALL interested in y'all's expertise of hard in-the-trenches out of the box observations and research to be squelched.

If anyone has deserved to be silenced . . . it would likely be . . . uhhhhh . . . the

Un-Sightly-Gosh-awful-Singularly dippy government blathering club.

So there. Harumph.

PLEASE keep up the great work. Both of you-ins.

reply to post by lonewolf2

you in Hawaii?

angelchemuel
reply to post by PuterMan

 

Take it your early warning system got you out of bed Puters....and just as I was going off to mine!

Rainbows
Jane

Having an early night were you? I usually go to bed around 2 am and am up again around 8am so no it did not get me out of bed

ETA

Puters....have you gone back to bed?....Because if you have...then I can too

Oh, yes I had, not back but gone. Nothing gets in the way of my sleep. The house could be falling down but |I would still have to sleep for 6 hours.

And another ETA

...so we do have them...I don't know, but aren't they dropping off rather quick?

Chile does not tend to have massive runs of aftershocks as some other areas do.

@everyone:

Thanks for your praise. Not really deserved. As far as I am concerned it was just a lucky guess steered perhaps by the pattern of quakes I was seeing. Another time nothing would happen. Even those who profess to predict quakes get one right every now and again. I would not be prepared to state that I had any skill until my prediction rate was 80%+

reply to post by PuterMan


Puterman, when do you think the West Coast will go off. I am not fussy which fault system.

By what I see, it should be very soon. In fact, I can't figure out why it hasn't already. I know a lot of small quakes continue to bleed energy but frankly it would take thousands and thousands of those to bleed anywhere near the energy that should be there, silently waiting.

Every day, I grow a little more doubtful of the tectonic plate theories.

P

reply to post by pheonix358

By what I see, it should be very soon.

Agreed, but geologically soon. Not tomorrow in our time but tomorrow in Gaia time.

My feeling is that the big fault line from Canada to Northern California is under, as you say, some major stress and I believe that to a degree this is slowing movement on the San Andreas.

The last set of calculations I did showed potential for a Mag 8.5+ on Cascadia. When this has been released we may see movement on the San Andreas ( but see below ).

I think I have mentioned before that I consider Cascadia will do its thing within 15 years, and I still believe that to be the case - a geological second! San Andreas 5 to 7 years after that depending on how much of a shove it gets from the Chile /Ecuador / Central America region. (I happen to believe the Pacific plate is sort of rotating anti-clockwise as well as growing from the central ridge that is not very central!)

It is possible that San Andreas could go first (M7.8) in which case reverse the order - 5 to 7 for San Andreas followed 15 or so years after that by Cascadia.

Please note that this prognostication of doom will probably turn out to be completely wrong and should not be taken seriously.

the seismic region of Mw 8.2° in Chile is:


www.mapsism.com...



attention...

QueenofSpades

Question: Is there a possible connection with the recent Washington State landslide?

I am by no means an expert, but I believe that was more weather related. Mudslides are always a concern with a frozen defrost and rain happening at the time.

reply to post by QueenofSpades


This is just my opinion.

I don't think the earthquakes had anything to do with the Washington landslide. IMO it was solely due to unconsolidated glacial till being over-saturated by rainfall to the point of failure.

Maybe some others will chime in.

ETA:
reply to post by PuterMan

PuterMan

edit on 2/4/2014 by PuterMan because: I seem to be having a few problems with the English language this morning. Perhaps I should revert to Alien since my better half thinks I am a reptilian.

LMAO.
Is that were your copious talents hail from? I knew it!
Puters, I humbly request that you upload an audio file of your chorus performance--please. It will be lovely to hear.

reply to post by PuterMan


IF tectonic plate theory is correct, I agree with your summary, but, I don't think it is. We have discussed this before.

If it takes 15 years, then it will be the most horrific quake in modern history.

Energy has been released in the other three quadrants and these have been years apart, not decades.

I see the remaining quadrant going in from anytime now to 24 months.

Quite frankly, the sooner the better because the longer it takes, the more energy will be released when it does go.

I cannot see where is is hung up, it should have released multiple sevens over the past decade.

That's my take and like you have said, 'for what it is worth' because we are like little five year olds trying to work out why the water rotates going down the drain plug. Fascinating to watch but no idea as to why.

Thank you for the reply, it is appreciated as always.

P

reply to post by PuterMan


Hi Puters......thank you for that bedtime info...I will factor that in next time there is a 'major'

*goes back to lurking mode*
Rainbows
Jane

I hadn't run across this particular internet rumor, but the USGS did. From the front page of their EQ Hazards page


I really wish hoaxers (in all genres) would give it a rest for a while--tedious.

reply to post by Olivine


Just playing devil's advocate here, as, like you, I hate hoaxers too......but what if.....this had been about the Chile EQ? Don't have to look too far for a person who had a pretty strong and science based hunch about it......like I said...just playing devils advocate

Rainbows
Jane

angelchemuel
reply to post by Olivine

 

Just playing devil's advocate here, as, like you, I hate hoaxers too......but what if.....this had been about the Chile EQ? Don't have to look too far for a person who had a pretty strong and science based hunch about it......like I said...just playing devils advocate

Rainbows
Jane

Just N.O.

If you're going to predict something, be it pulling it out of your hind end, or going the scientific route, you use your own name/handle. You do not impersonate an agency and scare the tar out of people.That is wholly irresponsible on all levels.

I agree with Olivine, hoaxers get steam pouring out of my ears, and especially doom porn hoaxers.

Nyiah

angelchemuel
reply to post by Olivine

 

Just playing devil's advocate here, as, like you, I hate hoaxers too......but what if.....this had been about the Chile EQ? Don't have to look too far for a person who had a pretty strong and science based hunch about it......like I said...just playing devils advocate

Rainbows
Jane

Just N.O.

If you're going to predict something, be it pulling it out of your hind end, or going the scientific route, you use your own name/handle. You do not impersonate an agency and scare the tar out of people.That is wholly irresponsible on all levels.

I agree with Olivine, hoaxers get steam pouring out of my ears, and especially doom porn hoaxers.

Just playing devil's advocate here, as, like you, I hate hoaxers too......but what if.....this had been about the Chile EQ? Don't have to look too far for a person who had a pretty strong and science based hunch about it......like I said...just playing devils advocate

Erm...did you miss the bit I have now bolded for your convenience?

Rainbows
Jane

So, now we know the 6.7M off Chile on March 16 was not the main shock. In fact now it can be seen as a fore-shock. Chilean scientists were warned that the series of 6's were fore-shocks. I am proud of the Chileans again. Very few fatalities.

Chicken and egg.
Olivine wrote on TrueAmerican's thread that they still think a bigger one could come soon.
So, was the 8.2M the main-shock, or a fore-shock?

Because anywhere along the Chilean coast, you can have a movement bigger than 9.

Maybe this part of the fault moves very slowly and we have another series to come. So, don't be like the press and think of it an a singular event followed by a wind-down. This is part of a big movement over a very long time. Even when this part of the fault slows, another part of the fault will have added stress and will move. It just may take years. Or, this movement will help trigger other zones. And, may be part of the same movement which is reaching all the way to Northern California. We can expect events anywhere along the west coast of the Americas.

I just want to thank all the "experts" here on the Fragile Earth Forum ("Quake Jockeys"?? is that what you're called? ) for your facts, your analysis, your ruminations...I learn ever so much more on ATS during events like this than all of the MSM combined.

THIS is where I immediately come for the latest, most comprehensive information. You guys ROCK!

*namaste*