Michael Hastings – “Foul Play Or Not” – Do you have a plausible theory?

Originally posted by ShadellacZumbrum

Wouldn’t that lead you to believe that since there is more evidence that suggests it was either mechanical failure or operator error, that it is more than likely that it Was either mechanical or operator error?

That is the ONLY official conclusion that can be made in a case like this.

reply to post by ausername

That is the ONLY official conclusion

I can appreciate your wording on that.

Do you believe that there will be any evidence as far toxicology and autopsy reports that would prove the case either way?

Originally posted by ShadellacZumbrum
reply to post by ausername

 

That is the ONLY official conclusion

I can appreciate your wording on that.

Do you believe that there will be any evidence as far toxicology and autopsy reports that would prove the case either way?

If needed I'm sure they can be used to provide more evidence, but is really unnecessary.

You cannot prove anything but that the driver was at fault, and/or for whatever reasons was unable to control the vehicle, whether compromised by drugs or alcohol really wont make that much difference in this case, at least as far as the official conclusions are concerned. There is no proof of foul play, and there never will be.

Doesn't mean there wasn't though.

Hi, I'm new here though have been following the Michael Hastings crash since the beginning.

I'm not sure one way or the other on the issue and you all are fantastic so hadn't felt the need to chime in before now. Since this thread is trying to dissect the information that is out there and come to some sort of conclusion I hope some things I've come across or thought of may be able to help, or haven't been brought up before.

One thing that needs to be addressed is the thought that "wouldn't someone use an easier or less in our face form of killing him if if that is what happened"? Maybe for Joe Smoes like us that would be the track they would take.

But take the case of Don Bolles who was an Investigative Journalist for the Arizona Republic. He left a note in his typewriter that he was meeting with an informant but would be back by 1:30. The source had promised information on a land deal involving top state politicians and possibly the mob. After a wait of several minutes in the lobby of the Hotel Clarendon (now known as the Clarendon Hotel) was concluded with a call for Bolles to the front desk, the conversation lasted no more than two minutes. Bolles then exited the hotel to his car in the adjacent parking lot just south of the hotel on Fourth Avenue.

Bolles started the car, drove a few feet, when a remote-controlled bomb consisting of six sticks of dynamite taped to the underside of the car beneath the driver's seat was detonated.

Not saying that is what happened to Michael Hastings, but when someone wants to send a message to others to lay off, this would be an almost sure way to do it. Though in the Bolles case it backfired and they had Journalists breathing down their necks before long.

So no, depending on what the wanted outcome was they might not want the easiest quietest way of silencing.

There were other ideas floating around this brain but it's 3AM and the above just zapped all my juice for the moment.

Sorry for just plopping in to the middle of this conversation. You all have my utmost respect for the intelligent looking into of the Michael Hastings tragedy.

reply to post by heavenlyalchemy


Welcome to ATS.

Thanks for your insight. What ever you can offer will be greatly appreciated.

There is a lot of good information in this thread. In fact, I think every piece of information that is available to the public is in here.

If you have anything at all to add please feel free. There is a genius running this post, but that doesn't mean that we didn't miss something.

Originally posted by ausername
...If needed I'm sure they can be used to provide more evidence, but is really unnecessary.
...You cannot prove anything but that the driver was at fault, and/or for whatever reasons was unable to control the vehicle, whether compromised by drugs or alcohol really wont make that much difference in this case, at least as far as the official conclusions are concerned. There is no proof of foul play, and there never will be.
...Doesn't mean there wasn't though.

You make a good point.
What the police and fire department need...are investigative journalists!
Then, they wouldn't be as restricted in the scope of their responsibilities.

reply to post by ShadellacZumbrum


Wan,

Wanted to add something to think about.

After going back and reviewing the pizzeria video for the millionth time, it dawned on me that. .. .

When the Mercedes hit the hydrant cover do you think that was enough to deploy the Air Bags?

I would think that if they did, it would have been enough to trigger the EMBRACE system to send the telemetry, If he had the subscription.

I had read another article that I can’t seem to find now that indicated that the data transmits in less than a second. I have gone nuts trying to find that article, but, while I was looking I did find another article by the Hollywood Reporter. Not sure if you had seen this yet. LINK It was published on 6/20. It was actually the first time I had read it.

Anyways, I keep thinking about Mercedes offering help that supposedly isn’t being taken by the investigators and the more I think about it leaves me wondering if they did actually capture that data.

Originally posted by ShadellacZumbrum
...After going back and reviewing the pizzeria video for the millionth time, it dawned on me that. .. .
...When the Mercedes hit the hydrant cover do you think that was enough to deploy the Air Bags?
...I would think that if they did, it would have been enough to trigger the EMBRACE system to send the telemetry, If he had the subscription.

I have wondered the same about the airbags deploying as a result of hitting the utility cage...
I believe, according to the crash-test video...that they might still have been functional/useful by the time the car arrived at the tree, though.
But - they would not have (in this scenario) provided much protection for the crown of his head, when the roof impacted the tree.
And - as to the M-BRACE system sending its data - it looks to me as if there would have been time for the transmission.
We're only talking about a difference of 1/7th to 1/11th (or so) seconds between hitting the utility cage, and hitting the tree...
And yet...there is still another 3/8th (or so) seconds before the head & tail lights extinguish.
So - as you say - if he was subscribed (and - one might place the odds with this possibility), there is a good chance M-BRACE got at least a partial upload.

I had read another article that I can’t seem to find now that indicated that the data transmits in less than a second. I have gone nuts trying to find that article, but, while I was looking I did find another article by the Hollywood Reporter. Not sure if you had seen this yet. LINK It was published on 6/20. It was actually the first time I had read it.
...Anyways, I keep thinking about Mercedes offing help that supposedly isn’t being taken by the investigators and the more I think about it leaves me wondering if they did actually capture that data.

I remember reading that article. Thanks for reminding me.
In considering the explosion at the tree...and the various parameters that seem apparent, their point regarding "hot exhaust system components being situated near the fuel tank" is worth considering.
They, of course, are suggesting a rupture of the fuel tank...but...we know that anywhere the fuel would have been going through the fuel line...was now gone (so - open-ended fuel line...even if 'no electricity' to power the fuel pump)...and a lot of trauma to probably every physical component in the entire vehicle...
The HUGE explosion is not immediate...
And, I'm guessing the HUGE explosion to be the fuel tank exploding.
The video seems to show an initial explosion, that graduates to a big fireball...that erupts into the HUGE explosion...then settles down to a raging inferno (that is about the size of the "big fireball").
I am calculating 6/11th to 6/7th seconds between engine ejection and initial flash of explosion, and 4/11th to 4/7th seconds between the tail lights going out, and initial flash of explosion. (That is, at least, a little bit strange, to me.)

Again - I'll be letting this simmer...

Originally posted by ShadellacZumbrum
reply to post by heavenlyalchemy

 

Welcome to ATS.

Thanks for your insight. What ever you can offer will be greatly appreciated.

There is a lot of good information in this thread. In fact, I think every piece of information that is available to the public is in here.

If you have anything at all to add please feel free. There is a genius running this post, but that doesn't mean that we didn't miss something.

Thank you, ATS seems to have some of the best minds, knowledgeable and truly interested in vetting all aspects of an issue.

There is a lot of good information in this thread and others posted on the first page. I've been lurking for a while, but with nothing to add thought it best not to just post. There is truly a genius running this thread as well as others posting.

Now math is my worst subject so the figures that have been come to regarding MH's speed I can't agree with or refute, though thinking of it even if he had been going 75-100+ wouldn't hitting the median as well as the metal grate and water pipe have slowed him down immensely?

Even though he was heading south when he hit the tree he was facing East. Shouldn't the engine and all that was connected to it have been due East? Instead of South-East? Like I said math is not my subject so this could be wrong but It seems that with the trajectory the engine would have had to have disconnected before hitting the tree since it was found South East.

The hood of the car facing the car on the tree practically undamaged has me wondering how that is possible, it reminds me of the hood of Don Bolles' car which looks like it was popped but still latched. Though talking about that, Bolles' car was blown up but did not catch fire what so ever.

This brain of mine has tapped out for the moment, looking forward to further discourse with everyone here.

reply to post by heavenlyalchemy

wouldn't hitting the median as well as the metal grate and water pipe have slowed him down immensely?

Some of us have done several calculations regarding speed and from the point where he bottomed out coming across Melrose puts him somewhere between 90-120mph. That is a rough figure.

Here is an excerpt from page 7 regarding a "Rough Calculation" in the reduction of speed.

Things to consider for the reduction of speed.

1 - Bottoming out crossing Melrose ( 2-3 times ).
2 - Swerving to the left direction before jumping the curb.
3 - Jumping the curb ( A wheel at a time )( curb appears to be 3-4" in height ).
4 - Loss of traction when solid on the grass.
5 - Hitting the hydrant cover ( NEED to know what it was attached with ( # of bolts holding it down )).

I have tried to consider everything to extrapolate a fairly accurate figure.

Now if we assign values to those 5 items, as far as speed goes, it might look something like this .. .

1 - -5mpg
2 - -5mph
3 - -3mph X 4 = -12mph
4 - -5mph
5 - -10-15mph

Add the figures from the high side of things and you get a reduction of 42mph

Subtract 42 from 100 and you get 58mph

My original calculation of 60 mph is pretty damn close.

After that was posted WanDash came up with a figure of around 120mpg as opposed to 100.

So, the impact speed and the impact force can both be increased.

As far as the cage around the hydrant and the and the Pipe, after further study it appears as though the anchors that were securing the cage pulled out of the cement. In addition the pipe was determined to be PVC either schedule 40 or 80. Either way PVC is brittle and breaks fairly easily. So those 2 impacts would have made a marginal difference in the reduction of speed.

The engine placement is a little tricky, It appears as though the engine was ejected between impact and wrapping around the tree. That would account for where it landed.

The hood of the car facing the car on the tree practically undamaged has me wondering how that is possible

On the initial impact the cars rear-end came off of the ground and the roof hit the tree. That would have been when the hood came off of the car.

Originally posted by heavenlyalchemy
...Now math is my worst subject so the figures that have been come to regarding MH's speed I can't agree with or refute, though thinking of it even if he had been going 75-100+ wouldn't hitting the median as well as the metal grate and water pipe have slowed him down immensely?
...Even though he was heading south when he hit the tree he was facing East. Shouldn't the engine and all that was connected to it have been due East? Instead of South-East? Like I said math is not my subject so this could be wrong but It seems that with the trajectory the engine would have had to have disconnected before hitting the tree since it was found South East.
...The hood of the car facing the car on the tree practically undamaged has me wondering how that is possible, it reminds me of the hood of Don Bolles' car which looks like it was popped but still latched. Though talking about that, Bolles' car was blown up but did not catch fire what so ever.
...

Hello heavenlyalchemy - nice to hear from you!
I will give your questions my best shot...
First - "slowing due to the median & utility cover"...
I would consider some slowing on both of these...but, not substantial... The curbing is 2 to 3 inches (closer to 3), and, while that is a "step up", it was mounted at a "good" angle (I'm guessing 15° - 20°) for "smooth transition". That is not to say that there was "no" loss of momentum/speed, but that it wasn't the kind of loss that would have resulted from approaching at a 30° or above angle...
As ShadellacZumbrum has noted - the bolts that secured the utility cage to the concrete block...stripped out of the block...which would have required less force, than if the only way they would "give way" was by breaking/shearing.
Now - if for some unknown reason, the throttle were not still in "wide-open" or "near-wide-open" mode...just prior to impacting the cage, and then through the cage, I think we could expect some significant impact to the speed, as well. But considering that the throttle was probably in the same position leading to the cage...and that we're dealing with a 3,000 (or so) pound vehicle travelling at "near" 100 mph, I don't think the utility cage (and water pipe) would have taken more than 10 mph away.
Those are just guesses, though...and, your concern is exactly what mine was, earlier on. (You could be right!)

Regarding the direction of travel for the engine/tranny and debris field... If you watch the video posted by JBA2848 of the crash test...the "swing" or "sling" that results from hitting an immovable object off-center (in favor of the driver's side), combined with the velocity and (possibly) other unobservable factors hidden in the dark, might sum up to exactly what we see in the video.

The hood...while looking surprisingly good for what had just transpired...in this pic' from the LoudLabs video...

...does not appear to have fared as well, in this pic from the same video...


When the Mercedes collides head-on with a substantial resistance, one of the first "crumple-zone" effects, is the "hood" moving back and up. If the hood had started this movement prior to the roof slamming into the tree, I'm pretty sure that the hood would have been entirely dislodged from its hinges...then, moved with the car as it continued to "swing" around, and fell with the decimated front grill-work, for all those pics we've seen.

Those answers may be correct - incorrect - or partially both... Just giving my best shot, for the moment.
Thanks.
Look forward to hearing more from you.

ETA: Sorry for doubling Shadellac's response.

deleted.

Spent a good while, yesterday, attempting to find a more exacting method of determining the vehicle speed in the security camera video.
For the sake of intelligent vetting, I will explain “how” the numbers were derived, first… Then, give the numbers.

Whereas in the former group, posted in this thread (beginning here), totaled 22 different screen-shots once the Mercedes was in the picture, through the first light of explosion at the tree (showing 30 screen-shots, in all), a little more effort now turns the “22” into 27 different screen-shots…for the same stretch.

As you know – this is security camera footage, from a camera posted beside the door of the Pizzeria Mozza, that sits on the corner of Melrose Place and North Highland Avenue.

We don’t know the frame capture rate of this camera… I have formerly contended that the camera probably captures 7 to 8 frames per second… After this latest adventure, I’m rethinking.

Until the Mercedes enters the picture, it is difficult to determine if every single change has been identified… So, for the two full seconds that precede (Seconds #12 & #13) the Second that includes the first screen shot of the Mercedes, I captured only eight and ten screen shots, respectively.
For Seconds #14 and #15, however, I caught 12 screen shots, each.
There were anomalies in the process…where 3 consecutive screen shots were captured, showing timer progress in each, but, likewise revealing no change to what was captured in the video. The two redundancies have been removed from the lot.

What’s the point?
Accuracy &/or Proof.

I don’t think I’ve seen two “prognosticators” (including myself) or “experts” (discluding myself) offer the same numbers with regard to “how fast” the Mercedes was travelling…and thus – how much force (energy, etc…) was involved in the collision.
Previously, I used the numbers given by Michael Krikorian…for distances…, and used an approximation of “frames per second”…as well as certain interpretations of the video evidence.
I kind of knew there was another, more accurate method available…but didn’t want to go through the process… Nevertheless – here we are…and…I’ll wake you up when this is finished…

The only thing that is linearly measurable in the security camera video…is “time”.
If we had the “original video” that statement might change…but, what we have is a video of a video, that is for most intents and purposes – outstanding – but, also bears movements indicative of the emotion/s of the video operator in the stretch, where the car meets the tree.
Regardless, though, of what angle the second-hand operator might move to…the timer at the bottom remains the same…constant…and measurable.
So – after “re-capturing” the screen-shots…and even going back a couple of seconds for more context, I loaded each screen-shot into a graphic application…with grid/scale/ruler…and measured & marked the progress of time.
In my opinion, this is “fairly accurate”.
On the scale/ruler, Seconds #13 and #14 each measured to “51”, while Second #15 measured to “49”.

At 1/3 of a second into Second #14, the Mercedes is on-screen. It appears (to me) that you can see the entire passenger-side rear end…but, perhaps, not the driver-side rear corner of the vehicle. For the sake of simplicity, we will assume that the car has travelled 15’ of the 251’ total distance to the palm tree, in this pic’.

In the first pic’ that shows the rear end rising…46.939% of Second #15 has passed…
In the second pic’ that shows the rear end rising…51.020% of Second #15 has passed…

In the first pic’ showing the head lights no longer beaming…83.673% of Second #15 has passed…

The first pic’ of Second #16, shows the tail lights dimming…and is the first shot that undeniably shows the southeasterly flying (& glowing) object…

I have read others claiming that “the head lights going out” is the first evidence of meeting the tree… (I disagree – but, that’s not the point)…
If that is the case…then…subtracting 15’ from 251’…leaves 236’ travelled in:
2/3 of a second + 83.673% of a second… or … 1.170068 seconds
That translates to 201.69767 feet per second…
Or – 137.5 miles per hour…

If my interpretation of the video evidence was correct…and the start of the rear end rising correlates with impacting the tree…then…
(…we’ll go with the latter/second pic’ showing the rear end rising…)
Still going with 236’ travelled in:
2/3 of a second + 51.020% of a second… or … 84.354% of a second
That translates to 279.77419 feet per second…
Or – 190.5 miles per hour…

If, rather than either of these…we go with…the pic’ where the southeasterly flying & glowing object is seen…
We are looking at 1 full second and 1/3 of a second…traversing 236’…
…which translates to 177 feet per second…
… … 120 – 121 mph …

Okay… Sorry for the muddling…but, I believe I have allowed for enough possibilities that you can choose what you want to believe about the speed.
I do not see a good enough reason to post this series of pic’s…so…if you want them, U2U me…and I’ll find a way of getting them to you.
Thanks!

Oh yeah --- you can wake up, now.

reply to post by WanDash


I would say that your figure is a hell of allot more accurate than what I came up with.

Not to even mention Professor Maharani’s calculation of 35MPH using a "Simple Formula".

2 witnesses sitting at a light witnessed the car moving passed them at Break Neck Speeds. I would think that might be an indication that the car was moving Much Faster the 35mph. Moreover, according to the good professor, it is this 35mph, which was more than enough to cause the engine and tranny to be ejected. ... OVER 100 Ft. AWAY ! !

With that Idiot Professor making his "Expert" statement, this has caused Conspiracy Theorists to consider that as a fact, which backs up the "Foul Play" Scenario. NOT!

I say "Bull S[SNIP]T, Professor So and So needs shot in the Damn Foot for inciting a Damn Riot over his Act of Retardation.

I sure would like to see that "Simple Equation". .. . ... /END Rant.

Sorry for the rant but I have read several HOSED articles today all mentioning the Professor and his "Expert Calculation".

Now. .. . .. .

I think it is safe to assume by your figure that the impact force is Much Greater then my initial calculation.

I for one can't wait to see the actual "Accident Report" so we can all see how close were really are.

P.S. . .. . Wan, .. You should send a copy of your "Simple Equation" with the answer to Professor Mehrabadi so that he may compare notes.

Wan,

Check the News.

The Coroner's Report just came Out.

It is Not good.

ETA:

I am NOT ready to call it Case Closed. .. .

There are still too many questions.

reply to post by ShadellacZumbrum

Well - I'm sure the good ole professor spied a simple problem that wouldn't take much effort solving...and whipped-out an "obvious" answer. Don't know if he's been challenged on his solution...and/or if he's chosen to defend the position... I don't think any right-minded "scholar" would try to defend that if presented with facts that they were obviously missing.

But - as you say - all it takes is one spectacular blurb, and the mice are scurrying like a disturbed nest of Africanized honeybees.

190 mph seems high...
120 and/or 137 seem more reasonable...
I wonder if anyone knows how to determine just how fast the Mercedes might have been going...if, at Santa Monica, it was travelling 60-70 mph...and the throttle was wide-open all the way to Melrose Place.
I'm guessing it would have achieved "maximum" speed by then...if that were the case.

Used to drive a Saab...and it had, at least, 165 mph on the speedometer. I took it up to 135 mph for a short stretch on a wide-open stretch of West Texas interstate. Even then (no-one around, flat, straight), it was a bit unnerving.

You would think the accident investigators could give a fairly good estimation of how fast the car was moving, by how far it went in the air (presumably) as a result of the Melrose high rise.

Originally posted by ShadellacZumbrum
...The Coroner's Report just came Out.
...It is Not good.
...ETA:
...I am NOT ready to call it Case Closed. .. .
...

Thanks - got it...
Coroner, family link Michael Hastings to drug use at time of death
...amphetamine (methamphetamine) and marijuana (medical marijuana card - issued for treatment of post traumatic stress syndrome)...
...neither were considered a factor in the crash...
He had just returned from New York the day before the accident...
His brother was scheduled to arrive in Los Angeles...later on the day of the accident...as..."His family was attempting to get (Hastings) to go to detox"...
He was believed to have been sober for 14 years, but recently (within the last month or so) began using drugs again...according to interviews with family members (conducted by the coroner's office).
...A couple/few hours before the crash (between 12:30 a.m. and 1:00 a.m.) he was "last seen by one witness - passed out"...
Yeah... Don't know how much this affects the story. It certainly has an effect...but, I'm going to have to take off for a few hours to attend to some business...
Be back in a while!
Thanks again!

ETA: According to Michael Krikorian's Blog - Hastings Family Tried To Get Him To Rehab ...the story is just a little different.
I really like the way Mr. Krikorian writes...

Thanks WanDash and ShadellacZumbrum you both helped quite a bit.

I posted the Coroner's Report on this thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Interesting to say the least...

reply to post by heavenlyalchemy


Thanks for posting this report. It was quite a read. Although I am not able to read it all because of my eyes.

Anyways, there is a section on the toxicology report that says some about Dimatryptamine and how something can affect those results Negatively but I can't read it.

I think it shows to different compounds that can interfere

I was just wondering if it shows those in his system

reply to post by WanDash


Wan,

Wanted to make a quick note.

Last week I think it was, his brother made a statement, something about he was pretty sure that it wasn't murder. I am wondering if he made that statement because he already knew.