Great Jobs Report: Unemployment Rate Falls To 7.5%

reply to post by BobM88

I'll admit I've had my doubts about Obama, but this is good news.

I think you meant "Bold Faced Lie"


www.shadowstats.com...

They aren't reporting on the number of people who are unemployed.... they are reporting the "Unemployment™" Index... which means something completely different from The number of people who don't have a job.

Edit: Oh... I see you guys have already begun discussing this information... very well, carry on.

reply to post by Afterthought

The fact is that now almost every single measure is improving...jobs, housing, stock market, gold is on the decline, interest rates are going to start rising again soon.

Nope.... the Gold index actually rallied after last weeks "Suspicious Drop"

As did Silver.

reply to post by 48e18

Gold (check trend for past year)

HA, and then check it for the past 10 years.....

reply to post by 48e18

Stock market, housing, auto sales...those are all measured in units sold/traded.

By every concievable metric, all of these are measured in PRICE IN DOLLARS

You have sticker price, Stock Price, And Mortgage Value.... all of these are measured in dollars.


Quit trying to whitewash the Failures to fix the economy by giving the banks Trillions of dollars.

reality doesn't lie.

BUT YOU DO!

reply to post by Covertblack


What they dont tell you are the kind of jobs that were "created" Because of this it is very misleading. You can "create" blockbuster video jobs and grocery store jobs but its not going to pay the bills and taxes that we are bombarded with on a day to day basis. Most of the time jobs like these are temporary not permanent with a pension and 401k and full benefits. They will keep lying and keep trying to make people feel like the country is doing better while they bomb other countries and suck the money from our pockets. Stop voting and giving these people legitimacy to keep operating because we dont need hope right now, we need to start over as a country. Unfortunately our parents are brainwashed into believing that voting is the only thing that you can do to create change. This is a false doctrine that has been used for multiple centuries to make people feel like they have an affect on the whole process of government. Thanks. God Bless.

I believe the numbers have been heavily doctored and the real numbers would be pretty disappointing, but probably not terrible. But right now, Obama is on the ropes and they need to prop the stooge up or his administration would be just about finished.
But I am worried about the institutional pumping up of the stock market. Computer programs are buying millions of shares and I think we're going to see a mass sell off that will hurt 90% of all investors, pension funds, IRAs, everybody. The very biggest and richest will sell off before it happens and be able to weather the storm and then can buy back and make up any losses, the rest won't. The economy is getting ready to take a major downturn which will make the last one seem like a minor speed bump.
Obama will be villified but he'll be on the way out anyway so it won't matter.
I'd sell off my stock but what to do with the money? They kept real estate prices artificially high so thats out. Gold? I think its peaked. Canned goods and shotguns, maybe. But the douchebags want to ban guns, too.

Originally posted by roguetechie
reply to post by TauCetixeta

 

Actually Tau... you are completely mistaken!

The phoenix metro area's explosive rise in home prices is due to institutional investors snapping up properties which they then put in the care of property management companies who lease or rent them out...

The fallacy that actual families are buying these homes to live in is not in any way supported by the actual numbers that are freely available to those who do their due diligence.

This has caused rent prices in the phoenix area to drop on some properties due to a glut on a market that is also slowly but surely becoming too expensive for the vast majority of people to participate in!

And while gas prices may have went down temporarily I can tell you that this is also not actually a good sign!

Do you know why gas prices are dropping right now?

Because demand worldwide is CRATERING!!

Last month a survey was done among companies that operate tankers in the middle east. Do you know what they found? They found that nearly 22% of all tankers in the fleets were most likely not going to do even a single run for the ENTIRE month! They also found that many of the tankers that are still operating and running shipments are operating at losses up to several hundred dollars a day during the runs! In other words demand is so far down that the going price for a tanker delivery is now so low that many operators cannot even operate their ships on what they are getting paid!

If you look at rail traffic and a myriad of other indicators the news is the same everywhere!

I'd also like to point out that the so-called job creation going on right now is really just a reshuffling act where companies are cutting the hours of more expensive employees and hiring less expensive employees (also part time! good luck finding full time work in most of the country right now! and you know what? It's only going to get worse!).

If you or anyone else arguing that the economy is doing better had bothered to drill down into the data even a tiny bit you'd see that while in theory 169k jobs were created the total hours worked by the ENTIRE workforce in the country has dropped SHARPLY! To a point where just to even things out for the loss of average hours worked by already employed people there would have had to have been almost three quarters of a MILLION jobs created... not one hundred and sixty nine THOUSAND!

As to those saying QE is ok because everyone is doing it.... I hope to god you are not economics or accounting majors because statements like that are so ridiculously illogical that it actually PAINS me to hear people saying things like that with a straight face and actually BELIEVING them!

Now... to address the whole there's been no hyper inflation so you right wingers are wrong wrong wrong argument....

First off if you knew ANYTHING about the mechanics of economic collapses you would know that before any hyperinflation incident there is a period of deflation.... we are starting to enter this period now (Finally... Helicopter Ben and the gang may have kept the hot potato in the air for awhile but it was sheer folly to think they could do it indefinitely!)

In addition it can and should be pointed out that much of the difficulty people are having with predicting the markets is due to the utterly rampant and ubiquitous price fixing, organized fraud, insider trading, and other dirty games going on behind the scenes right now! In essence the reason things are being made to look like they are on the upswing right now is to bring the last of the money from the quickly evaporating middle class and nouveau riche back into the markets for one more round of fleecing!

If you watch closely what the ultra rich and the ultra smart are doing right now.... you will see a concerted and UNIVERSAL effort to use every trick at their disposal to gain ownership of real and tangible physical assets in exchange for useless paper!

Take for example Gold.... rumors of gold's demise are running rampant and everyone and their dog are telling YOU the small time investor that gold, especially physical gold you hold yourself, is a bad investment and that you should sell it NOW!

Actually, i am correct.

Yes the Hedge Funds are buying up homes in Arizona.

The truth remains that home values are going up. We are going in the right direction.

Go to Zillow.com and seek the truth.

You will find this truth revealing. Here is the address.

17926 North 97th Way
Scottsdale, AZ 85255

Look how the price of the NEW house goes up every month.

It went up $20,000 just this month!

Originally posted by ErtaiNaGia
reply to post by BobM88

 

I'll admit I've had my doubts about Obama, but this is good news.

I think you meant "Bold Faced Lie"

www.shadowstats.com...

They aren't reporting on the number of people who are unemployed.... they are reporting the "Unemployment™" Index... which means something completely different from The number of people who don't have a job.

Edit: Oh... I see you guys have already begun discussing this information... very well, carry on.

edit on 4-5-2013 by ErtaiNaGia because: (no reason given)

The Jobs Report was good but it could be much better.

The real unemployment rate is over 11%.

We need to put America back to work.

reply to post by camaro68ss

The Federal Reserve is purchasing 90% of all government debt with printed money for the last 5 years! what do you think is going to happen when those bonds, purchased with printed money matures?

These bonds are being purchased at record low Interest rates( 1.5%-2%) And the interest on the debt is at $350 billion dollars. What happens when rates rise back up to their historical rates of 6%? You’re going to see the interest on debt TRIPPLE to $1.050 TRILLION. That’s 42% of the money taken in by the government through taxes going to interest payments. At that point we defalt.

No, US doesn't have to default ever even if the interest owed is several times the tax revenue. Since all the US debt is denominated in US$, the government will simply have to raise the debt ceiling and generate more money. If the debt is held by the Fed even better, since all the "interest paid" comes right back to the treasury as income. I suppose you are aware that all the Fed's "profits" are remitted to the treasury.

If the economy was doing so well, why has the FEDs not stopped print 85 billion dollars a month? The stock market is at record HIGHs and there still printing money? That’s scary!

It is the Fed "printing the money" that is holding the economy up. So if they stopped purchasing all kinds of debt from banks, infusing liquidity, it may go right back to where it was or worse.

What you should be scared about is not QE, but the stock market being at record highs. That means most of the QE money is only going into inflating the stock prices. So any small political shock is sufficient to make the markets come crashing down again and no amount of QE will be able to prop them up again.

That will spell the end.

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”


Joseph Goebbels

Originally posted by MyHappyDogShiner

“If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.”


Joseph Goebbels

U.S. Home values are rising. That is not a lie.

Jobs are being created. The U.S. Economy is growing.

Right now our GDP is growing at around 2.5%.

Well, I must say.. This thread has gotten more entertaining to follow since I last saw it. Sorry I couldn't get back sooner. My pillow and I had about a 14 hour session of quality time I, thankfully, have no recollection of. lol.... Wow.. was that badly needed!

Anyway... There is a bit of data which is commonly overlooked right now and that would be where employment IS doing well. The U.S. Government. The unemployment rate there, according to the same numbers released for the basis of the thread, is 3.3 %. Given that I recall the 4-5% average national unemployment while Bush was in office being declared "full employment" for statistical purposes by media and politicians alike, I suppose 3.3 is a truly ROARING employment picture.

Unfortunately, the Government doesn't produce. It consumes. It doesn't add to an economy in any productive fashion. That's a literal statement of truth, not a subjective opinion. The only area of the U.S. Government which had, many years ago, managed to operate at a profit? No longer does. That had been the United States Mint.

So, the sector with roaring figures is a consumer of national wealth and resources with nothing but service returned. A fair trade, in a healthy or robust economy. It's a harbinger of doom, in a failing one. It might explain the basic stability of the overall national rate though.

I was going through all my youtubes last night (did you know, youtube has a record of every video you've ever viewed...going back years? I just discovered that!) and sorting them into something usable in my very own Youtube content channel last night before I somehow fell asleep on my poor keyboard. Anyway.. I found many..many..from the past I've lost or forgotten.

ONE of them stands out as being especially useful in this debate, so I'd like to share that with everyone.



Now, John Boehner is the Speaker these days, not Pelosi. However, Pelosi is, for all intents and functional purposes, #2 for political power and influence in the function of the US House. When they take back the House in 2014 (Just ask 'em, it's a foregone conclusion to their thinking ..and with Boehner? Perhaps it really is, too), she fully intends to return to Speaker and full leadership of the House.

The above video is FAR MORE than simply one statement. It shows a number of statements which come down to the very same thing and it's how we've found ourselves with numbers that don't necessarily carry logic to the pain we see among our friends, family and community vs. the "good times" she and some in this very thread seem to claim we have.

In that video are many statements indicating that Government support and carrying of individuals is a good thing and what we should strive for. It's basically laying out, by statements directly from one of the most powerful figures in elected office today and part leader of 50% of the political force in America, everything which is wrong with the approach being taken.

................Lets also recall, she had full control over the House for part of Obama's time ....and part of that first period where *NO* budget of any formal kind has passed. Not once. In any form.

The LAST Budget to pass the United States Congress was under her, and it was George Bush's 'carry over' budget from 2008. Every "stop gap", "deem & pass" or "spending bill" since has, by legal definition, been BASED ON Bush's last written budget....which was 100% Emergency in nature, to respond to the collapse of the Real Estate market in 2007. Nothing, but nothing in this nation can even get back on track until there is at least a budget which exists as such.

Until a budget exists...nothing we're even talking about in this thread is more than statistical sampling, creative numbers or smoke & mirrors ..whether it just happens to resemble truth or not. That's secondary to the quicksand of logic it's all based on and comes from.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


The Secular Progressive Solution to create 600,000 jobs:

No problem. Just hire 600,000 ObamaCare ' Navigators ' to explain the 27,000 pages

to average Americans. Pay them all $50,000 a year.

Originally posted by Starwise
I personally know many people who have fallen out of the system and are still unemployed. The report to me is so false it is not even funny. I am out of work right now, but it doesn't count because I am not collecting unemployment.

You have to view this 'information' while keeping in mind two questions: 1) the data source for the Bureau of Statistics numbers and 2) is that data source truly representative of what is being claimed.

One - the only statistically valid source of information (meaning numbers) that the Bureau has are State and Federal Unemployment roles. Though I don't know for certain, there isn't really any other quasi-verifable source of numbers on unemployed persons. There could be models based on samples, surely but they would be entirely dependant on the sample taken, the method of sampling and the relevance of the sample to the general conclusion. I know there is considerable controversy about sampling but I digress. Basically, the Bureau is only working from data collected from the unemployment roles and those receiving benefits.

Two - it's obvious that working from unemployment roles misrepresents the actual unemployment picture. Those who work in the underground economy (an ever growing segment of the population) are non represented, those who have run out of benefits become 'magically employed' because they are no longer drawing benefits, part-timers (willing or unwilling) are counted as employeed. I am certain that other sectors of our society are uncounted as well.

Also of some imporatance in making up your mind is how 'guarded' any statement from the Bureau of Labor Statisics is phrased. They are, any statistician is, aware of how the usefulness and accuracy of statistics is limited by data source and methodolgy. Statistics is a science, like many or perhaps all, that are in need of a new viewpoint and methdology that better approximates reality. A new scientific method if you will - a 'Systems' view of subjects.

Think how useless official unemployment statistics are to the things we really need to know about the subject.
1) What sectors are new jobs in?
2) What pay rate are new jobs?
3) Are new jobs union or not?
4) Are new jobs temporary or permanent?
5) Are new jobs beneficial to the environment and society?
6) Are new jobs full-time or part-time?
and many others.

These job numbers are useless except to 'Analyists' who earn their padded salaries by playing with numbers while thinking they are smarter then everyone else because they 'understand the numbers'.

I used to believe this crap and figured I wasn't smart enough or educated enough to understand these matters. So, I went to school, took numerous classes from good and basically honest instructors and finally, in a finance class, it dawned on me that all these "Stastical" fields are based on somebodies best guess. I asked that question in class, I'd worked back the calculations to the base principle and wanted to know how it was derived, and was told - 'it's just that way'. Shook up the teacher when I said - it's just somebodies guess? Why is their guess any better than mine? Just because they talk nicer and can convince others better? It was a huge revelation for me. I just wish I'd gotten their sooner in life - I tend toward naviete.

reply to post by TauCetixeta

That "secular progressive" thinking is precisely what has and is still forming the underpinning of every statistic we're seeing today.

This isn't Bush's economy, however some still cling to that like people off the Titanic, hanging on to sticks in the water. We're into the 5th year of the next guy now ...and he owns it. The above, shows the logic ...and the logic to espouse Government benefits are still being touted as the answer, to this day.

I just figured I'd share it's origins for recent policy formation as we see the impact around us right now. You still hang onto and misrepresent the fortunes of Wall Street as the fortunes of Main Street, when the two are radically different and worlds apart. The benefit to retirement accounts IS important ...but doesn't help when John Q. Citizen has to raid them just to pay the mortgage and make ends meet ...as is increasingly the case.

At least John Q will raid much of it for base survival before the Hair Cutters come and take the rest. Economic reality isn't so easily defined as you attempt to present it and it never has been ...on any of the threads you run on a near weekly basis, it seems, saying about the same thing, over and over.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


I'm curious. Were you aware of the ObamaCare ' Navigators ' or was this the 1st time you

heard of them?

BTW, i'm glad that home values are rising across America.

Or is that just another conspiracy of yours?

reply to post by TauCetixeta

Well, how about...instead of a trick questions meant to make me look bad somehow by a reference to a term not yet used? You helpfully explain for everyone what you are talking about with that reference. It wouldn't just be considerate ...it would be debate, vs. fighting tactics. I'd love more debate ...but I'm not competing for who can out troll the other today.

You started ..again, for yet another almost identical thread in recent weeks, a fairly important topic discussion here. So, please do elaborate. I could so easily mistake precisely what you are referencing with that.

* Oh..and to be specific to my thinking and post? I was quoting one of the top 3 most powerful people in the United States Government with that Youtube...not a "navigator". ...while I await your interpretation of that word. :

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


I'll ask again.

Is this the 1st time you have heard of the ObamaCare ' Navigators' ?

Unemployment numbers were all mucked up under Reagan, to make it look like Reagan lead some sort of economic recovery. He did not, it was all smoke and mirrors.

The unemployment numbers since then have been under counted. This being said:

Recent drops in unemployment numbers, increased job growth, and an improving economy are in fact what is happening. The US economy is in fact growing, an economic recovery is under way.

The are lots of reasons for this, productivity of US workers, improvement of the business environment by increased law enforcement by Obama,

OH, and a tax increase on the rich!!!!

The rich would rather invest in business than pay taxes, so when tax rates go up, business returns to investing money in business.

I pointed out we wee heading into an economic recovery a year ago.

We're I live, buildings are going up everywhere, and unlike the Reagan era when those buildings remained empty, these new building are being filled by companies.

The recovery is under way, and yes Obama deserves some credit.

So stop your whining.

reply to post by poet1b


So explain to me why there are still a record number of people on government assistance? Why is the Dow Jones at a record high, yet job growth doesn't mirror this? What is going to happen when the Fed stops injecting $85 billion a month into the economy? How about when the interest rate finally starts to increase and we have to actually start paying REAL interest on this massive debt we've accrued?

I'm sorry but no amount of sing-songing and various nice "factoids" will convince me that the economy is improving until I get real answers to those questions and more that I have yet to ask. You can call me a pessimist or a doom and gloomer, but in fact I'm a realist. I try to look at the big picture and make a call from there. This gets me called a pessimist quite a bit because reality is NEVER as shiny and pretty as the talking heads try to make it out to be.

Quite a few posters have pointed out the significant drop in hours worked by our workforce suggesting a massive move from full employment to part-time employment. This can be reflected by the companies creating more (part-time) jobs to make up for this drop. Also as summer is just around the corner, many seasonal workers are starting to get back to work.

By the way, for every example of a booming economy you can point out from your town, I can point one out from mine that counters it. In fact I'll give you a personal one. I recently drove past the house my parents were evicted from. It resides in a nice neighborhood and in a good economy should have no problems selling. The house is still empty and isn't even on the market. I know this because the shed door in the back yard is still wide open and empty (which wouldn't be the case if the house had someone living there).