North Atlantic Hurricane Watch 2013

Originally posted by lasertaglover
Great catch. Star. This one developed quickly. Looks like it is going to go through some unfavorable conditions so it is expected to weaken over the next several days.

They changed their tune pretty quick on that "not going to intensify much" forecast:

AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE
WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN
ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF
COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. THEREFORE...THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND
INSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

From the same link above, wind speed probability's up quite a bit now, too:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 15.1N 33.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 15.7N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 16.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 17.2N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 17.9N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 19.0N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 20.0N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 20.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

Wind Speed Probability Table page:
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

This is the current Atlantic Surface Analysis:



I definitely see it moving North of P.R., - It will be interesting to see what it does afterwards.

According to this Surface Pressure forecast for next Wednesday,
it may also trek more to the west. (subject to change.)



Given the high pressure, it may also move up the coast - an (L) is currently moving towards the Atlantic, but we'll see what happens in a weeks time. It's very early yet.

TS DORIAN is expected to weaken,
and is currently moving towards the west at a forward speed of 22mph.

According to recent Advisory (#12), issued by the NWS-NHC:
DORIAN is expected to become a remnant low within the next couple days.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST
FRI JUL 26 2013

...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 48.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

I heard on CBC Radio today that, although there have been several named storms this hurricane season, there have been no actual hurricanes.
We are roughly half way through the current season with no action.
Does anyone else find this strange?
Will we get slammed in the remainder of the season?
Is this an effect of global (warming) climate change?

reply to post by lasertaglover


New thread here for the 2014 season.

Hopefully we don't see much activity there.

2014 thread
www.abovetopsecret.com...