North Atlantic Hurricane Watch 2013

Well, this season kicks off soon, and all sources are predicting an above-average activity season: 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. That's fine, as long as they stay over water.

Here are the names:

Andrea (unused)
Barry (unused)
Chantal (unused)
Dorian (unused)
Erin (unused)
Fernand (unused)
Gabrielle (unused)
Humberto (unused)
Ingrid (unused)
Jerry (unused)
Karen (unused)
Lorenzo (unused)
Melissa (unused)
Nestor (unused)
Olga (unused)
Pablo (unused)
Rebekah (unused)
Sebastien (unused)
Tanya (unused)
Van (unused)
Wendy (unused)

reply to post by Gazrok


Thanks for posting the names, and heck yeah I hope they stay out over water this year.

This link from the Miami Herald talks about how Florida has been "relatively lucky" the last several years. If memory serves from past Hurricane Watches here, I thought I remember you mentioning once that you are living in Florida Gazrok, so definitely needing to watch closely this year, eh?

www.miamiherald.com...

Also, even though not in the Atlantic, I think Hurricane Barbara in the east Pacific that just nailed SE Mexico should be mentioned. Here is an article on her, the damages, the missing American and others because of her.

www.accuweather.com...

And last, a NOAA view of Barabara as she breaks up.



Peace

Well I think it is a good thing that I did mention Barbara, as she might (low chance, but still there) of turning into our first named system of the year as Andrea, with possible East coast Impacts, especially Florida.

Definitely keeping an eye on her, but the models are pretty crazy right now, with her going anywhere.



spaghettimodels.com...

and



www.weather.com...

ALSO, just a reminder to everyone along the coasts, this is the time to be double checking your own Hurricane emergency plans. Make sure you have what you need for the season. Always a good idea to change out batteries for lamps, radios, and flashlights. It is also very important to be aware of your own local evacuation and shelter plans.

Stay safe.

Peace

Hey Floridians...keep an eye on this thing.

The system is looking a little bit better organized, and conditions are somewhat more favorable than yesterday for further development, so NOAA has upgraded the chance of tropical formation from Low to Medium.

"TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
LOCATED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS."

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Morning folks. Still not sure if it is going to become a named storm or not, but it is big, and NOAA has bumped the chances up to 50%. To my eye, I am seeing some outflow and some better organization, but regardless, it will dump a lot of rain wherever it goes, named or not.



"1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING
THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. "

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

If memory serves from past Hurricane Watches here, I thought I remember you mentioning once that you are living in Florida Gazrok, so definitely needing to watch closely this year, eh?

Even moreso now.

Now I'm a homeowner, and we have horses (and lots of really big trees).

Luckily, I'm kind of beginning a "prepper" kind of mentality. We've always got stores of food and water (I'm on a well, but if I lose power, I lose the well pump), so good there, but there is a lot to do around the ranch when a storm comes. Lots of things to secure. (If we lose power out here, it will be hours and hours before it is back on).

I got a chainsaw and trimmed branches that can pose hazards, made sure we can always secure any loose items, etc. The stables are pretty well built and can be shuttered for a bad storm. We're set pretty well here for anything but the absolute worst of storms. (and we always have an eye on the weather, as we don't put the horses out to graze during lightning).

This system looks like it is organizing pretty fast, but doesn't have a whole lot of time for development. NOAA bumped it to 60% for development. I reckon it will likely be at least a Depression by the time it is over us. Just a lot of rain and some wind.

For perspective, I'm here (circled)

Tropical Storm Andrea was named within the past hour:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012013
600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURDAY AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Next advisory is at 8pm eastern (about an hour & 15 from now)

I don't see it having the potential to be any worse than our typical summer storms, but impressive things have happened from equally or crappier organized storms.

We had at least one tornado touch down in Myakka, but they are rarely strong here. We're still in a Tornado Watch and Tropical Storm Warning. We lost power, but only for a couple of hours early this morning. LOTS of rain though, very little wind, but last estimate for the TS was winds at 60mph. We have another band coming through in about an hour. This storm organized real quick....well-defined eye and everything.

Of course, just a TS, so everything is still open, everyone going to work, etc. New advisory at 8am. I expect it will be a little stronger then, but likely still not a Hurricane. (which if I recall, is 74mph).

reply to post by Gazrok


I hope you stay safe and all is well there Gazrok!

Once upon a time I used to live in Sarasota (love the Columbia restaurant and the Ringling Museum) and lived in North Tampa (Fletcher Ave. area) for a while. Saw some tornadoes, but nothing monster.

Still waiting for the 8am update from NOAA, but in the meantime, here is a NOAA graphic for rainfall for the next 1-5 days, which will be the biggest issue with this storm, unless she strengthens (highly unlikely) when she crosses Florida and hits the Atlantic. Current models are showing her sticking very close to land, but as we all know, that can change quickly.



www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov...

reply to post by Nyiah


Hi there and thanks for posting that update! Hurricanes are my favorite topic, after spending years in Florida, and after being stationed when I was in the Army in Louisiana. Star!

Peace

Pictures almost always paint a better picture...so here is some of the latest NOAA graphs and charts.







www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Peace

We've already had about 3 inches of rain, with more on the way. Slow commute this morning, as for some reason, people love to tailgate and still drive 70mph in the pouring rain....so lots of accidents. Just in for a wet and rainy day (and the horses are going to be ticked, as they've been stuck in their stalls with all the bad weather.)

Last radio update had pretty much everything still the same....stat wise.

Local news radar image....

Our Tornado Watch was just updated to a Warning, for the next hour. So far, we've had 3 different tornadoes in the bay area this morning. No official word on strength, but that usually means only an F1.

According to a report, a horse was badly injured in a barn in the Myakka area and had to be put down as a result of its injuries.

- Bay News 9 (tornado in Myakka)

reply to post by Gazrok


Just went through a bunch of the Tampa Bay news sites, and I saw this article and links for getting Sandbags in your area.

www2.abcactionnews.com...

"Emergency operation centers across the Tampa Bay area are gearing up. Flooding is a main concern, and residents should be prepared to react.
•Sandbag pickup in Pinellas County: wfts.tv...
•Sandbag pickup in Pasco County: wfts.tv...
•Sandbag pickup in Polk County: wfts.tv..."

Saw pics of some damage in Hillsbourough and Pinellas Counties.

Stay safe man!

Peace

Here:

TAMPA - THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PINELLAS COUNTY

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 957 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR GULFPORT...OR NEAR SAINT PETE BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT
30 MPH.

* THE WATERSPOUT WILL BE NEAR...
GULFPORT...SAINT PETERSBURG.
TROPICANA FIELD...DOWNTOWN SAINT PETERSBURG.
LEALMAN...SAWGRASS LAKE PARK.
PINELLAS PARK.
HIGHPOINT...LARGO.
SAINT PETE CLEARWATER AIRPORT...CLEARWATER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 275 BETWEEN EXITS 6 AND 32.

Tropical Storm Andrea, churning through the eastern Gulf, has strengthened to 60 mph.

The storm is now bringing periods of heavy rains and a possibility of tornadoes.

We are under a Tornado Watch until 11 am this morning.

A Flood Watch also covers most of the viewing area.

Stay tuned!


Read more: www2.abcactionnews.com...

The situation there is not looking good. Here is an excerpt from the live weather blog update from Fox 13.

www.myfoxtampabay.com...

"TAMPA (FOX 13) - The entire Tampa Bay area remains under a tornado watch until 10 p.m. as Tropical Storm Andrea moves northeast into Florida.

Several tornadoes have been reported in Bay area locations, including Myakka City, Sun City Center and Gulfport.



Read more: www.myfoxtampabay.com...
Follow us: @myfoxtampabay on Twitter | FOX13TampaBay on Facebook

10:46 a.m.: A tornado watch for the entire Tampa Bay area has been re-issued to extend to 10 p.m.


10:45 a.m.: Chief of Gulfport police Robert Vincent tells FOX 13 it appears a waterspout came on land; 2 buildings reporting structure damage.There are trees and downed power lines.


10:42 a.m.: 4,000 people without power in Pinellas County – largest faction in Gulfport area. TECO reporting 567 people without power – largest faction in East Lake area of Hillsborough County.

10:38 a.m.: Emergency crews report possible entrapment of people in building at 2526 Beach Blvd. S in Gulfport.

10:34 a.m.: Tom Iovino of Emergency Management in Pinellas: Reports of light structure damage and trees down in Gulfport area. No reports of flooding yet in Pinellas, but he cautions, "We're not out of the woods yet."

10:23 a.m.: Fire and rescue officials say heavy wind damage in Gulfport. Reports of trees and power lines down along Beach Boulevard South.


10:15 a.m.: Amateur radio operator reports trees down at 22nd Street S in Gulfport. Radar continues to indicate rotation moving north along U.S. 19.


10:01 a.m.: Tornado warning issued for Pinellas County. NWS says radar-indicated tornado near Gulfport and St. Pete Beach, moving north at 30mph. Warning is in effect until 10:30 a.m.


10:00 a.m.: 22 flights are reporting delays at Tampa International Airport. The entire Tampa Bay area is under a tornado watch until 11 a.m.


9:50 a.m.: FOX 13's Aaron Mesmer speaks to Sun City Center resident Phill Lafluer, who tells us reported tornado this morning "sounded like a freight train through our living room." The home's lanai was ripped off.

9:44 a.m.: The city of St. Petersburg is making sandbags available today. You can pick them up at two locations: Northeast Park, 875 62nd Avenue NE; Frank W. Pierce Center/Bartlett Park, 2000 Seventh S. S.

9:30 a.m.: All lanes of Bayshore Boulevard have been reopened in Tampa. A single lane was closed because of flooding.

9:03 a.m.: Manatee County deputies confirm a tornado touched down in Myakka City near Singletary Road around 3 a.m. Thursday. It's the same tornado that traveled to Sun City Center. Some damage reported; no injuries to report.

8:55 a.m.: The National Weather Service has confirmed that a tornado did touch down Thursday morning in Sun City Center. FOX 13's Aaron Mesmer reports damage to homes in the area, as well as downed trees and power lines. No reported injuries.


8:43 a.m.: Pasco County is also making available sandbags if needed. Here are the locations where you can pick them up. You need to bring your own shovel."



Read more: www.myfoxtampabay.com...
Follow us: @myfoxtampabay on Twitter | FOX13TampaBay on Facebook

It's been like a long, drawn out storm. Squally, yes, but not unexpected or unfamiliar weather. It is just a TS after all. We have a constant good rain dump akin to what we're already familiar with. I did hear statewide that we've had at least 5 mild tornadoes, Myakka & Sun City Center being the nearest to us in the Tampa area. I think Palm Beach had a tango with one as well.

I'm pretty surprised that Andrea continued to strengthen, I did not expect 60MPH winds from her, I expected the dry air to the west & the shear to begin to tear her apart by now.

The silver lining is, aside from much needed rain, that the beaches will have freshly churned up shells for the beachcombers to scavenge for. I may go do this myself after the weather settles.

Edit: Although I am not one of those without power, we have had several flickers of it this morning. I would not be surprised if we lose power for a time today.

More stuff coming inland people. Stay safe!

11:11 a.m.: A tornado warning has been issued for western Charlotte County, NW Lee County and Sarasota County until noon. Radar indicates waterspouts moving on shore at 30 mph along a line from Venice to Englewood to 18 miles south of Englewood.

Read more: www.myfoxtampabay.com...

Animal deaths being reported.

11:30 a.m.: 1 horse killed, 2 dogs unaccounted for after reported tornado flattens barn in Myakka City, owners tell FOX 13.

Peace

More tornadoes and updates for ya'll.

11:48 a.m.: The Sunshine Skyway Bridge is now closed due to high winds.

11:45 a.m.: There are three active tornado warnings for southern Bay area counties. Charlotte County, NW Lee County and Sarasota County until noon. A radar-indicated tornado was moving north 7 miles east of Sarasota. And a radar-indicated tornado was moving NE near the Myakka River State Park at 40 mph.


Read more: www.myfoxtampabay.com...

Peace

reply to post by lasertaglover


Yep, my wife is in one of those spots. One of the locations in the path of the sighted tornado is right across the street from her. I just heard on the radio that water is blowing over the lower parts of the bridge seawall of the Howard Franklin bridge. Of course, we're nearing high tide, so no real surprise. I hope that bridge isn't closed this evening, as that's my main way home. I would have preferred to stay home today, but in the bay area, staying home for anything less than a Cat 3 storm is kind of frowned upon it seems.

A friend of mine in Gulfport has been out of power since earlier this morning, her whole neighborhood is. She says mostly just some branches and trash debris though, nothing major.