Quake Watch 2013

Ya'an , Sichuan Province, Lushan County Aftershocks 18.5hrs (Part 2)

I'll review and do a page on eqarchives about this one after the 30 day mark, once things have been processed/reviewed again by CENC, but I wanted to get a handle now on how they operate, so I know how to set up my Excel pages.
I did this revised/added/deleted thing for a while a few years ago with Geonets NZ data so have an idea what is in store.

Just looking at the 18.5 hour mark which had 61 aftershocks listed at that point.
On review (of the 18.5hr data) at the 48hr mark, using the time of each event as the basis;
All but 4 events have been revised with new locations (1-5km), changed magnitude ( Ms to ML for some reason) or the time was out (by 1-3 seconds).
at the 16hr -18.5 hour period there were no further changes.
The Mainshock's location and magnitude stayed the same but the time has been altered by +2seconds.
Of the revised events where the magnitudes stayed the same, but the location changed
9 had the time changed by +/- 1 second
6 by +/-2 seconds,
3 by +3 seconds
and one by +4 seconds
Of the remaining revised events;
the magnitude (Ms to ML) and location changed on 17
the magnitude (Ms to ML) and location changed and the time went back -1second on 15
the magnitude (Ms to ML) and location changed and the time went back -2seconds on 2
the magnitude (Ms to ML) and location changed and the came forwards on 1


looks toatally different doesn't it


There were 245 additions
one of those may be the only deletion, there was a 20 second difference in the times and it went from 3.1Ms to 2.3ML, but the 3.1 didn't show on the 48hr review.


data in text format

You have to give the Chinese credit for recording earthquakes, the history goes back 3,780 years (according to Utsu to 1767BC , a 6.0 Songxian, Henan Province)
This is only eclipsed by a 4,013 year old Mag 7.1 Turkmenistan:Ak Tepe(Ashkhabad) ±100 years, detected from ruins and recorded by Kondorskaya and Shebalin (1982) catalog published in Russia.

I haven't really read much about this quake, seen the destruction on TV, locals complaining about no help/food/shelter, just reinforces the adage that "you are on your own for 3 days" that was prevalent in Christchurch, NZ in 2011. Probably worse in China, especially in the mountain towns, my newspaper this morning said trucks and crews were getting through now after dynamiting away landslides blocking the roads.
Also said there have been 2000 aftershocks so far, CENC are not showing them all, so I wonder where they get that info from?

further to post by muzzy

officially 514 aftershocks now.
181 additions, but only 10 of them during the last period (48-70 hrs), most of the new ones are from the 10-16hr period.
I'll have to thumbnail these from now on, too big for the column now



data in text format

no mag 6 yet!!??!!

reply to post by PuterMan


I saved them
but they are not the coloured ones

I was going to e-mail them to you, but thought these files might be useful to others here.
click on the text and it will open in Google Earth
Plate Boundries Black hard to see in GE but works well on Google Maps
Plate Boundries White works better in GE.
Plate Convergence Arrows

Because its not coloured if I want to know what a particular line is, I click the boxes in the side menu on and off till I find the one where I'm looking at.

reply to post by muzzy




I will load them in and then if the USGS one refuses to play at least I can see them.

Thanks for that.

Magnitude Mw 6.5
Region NEW IRELAND REGION, P.N.G.
Date time 2013-04-23 23:14:46.0 UTC
Location 3.80 S ; 152.18 E
Depth 47 km
Distances 833 km NE of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

www.emsc-csem.org...

GFZ are quite low 6.2

Did this this morning, 72hr aftershocks graph for Ya'an, Sichaun, China 7.0Ms
not your usual shape I wonder if it is because they are still plotting the smaller aftershocks, there was a bunch of new ones inserted today at the 40-49hr mark, only two new ones during the 70-86hrs period.
The map looks pretty much the same, they are doubling up on top of each other now, so I didn't bother with it.


click image for larger version

Another Earth quake hit Iran/pak border

earthquake.usgs.gov...

M5.2 - 91km N of Isangel, Vanuatu

Event Time

2013-04-24 14:08:57 UTC
2013-04-25 01:08:57 UTC+11:00 at epicenter
2013-04-24 16:08:57 UTC+02:00 system time

Location

18.723°S 169.222°E depth=233.2km (144.9mi)
Nearby Cities

91km (57mi) N of Isangel, Vanuatu
145km (90mi) SE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu
317km (197mi) NE of We, New Caledonia
415km (258mi) SSE of Luganville, Vanuatu
477km (296mi) NE of Dumbea, New Caledonia

articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com...

www.livescience.com...

www.insurancejournal.com...

www.mnn.com...

www.theepochtimes.com...

science.nbcnews.com...

www.sltrib.com...

www.kjrh.com...

reply to post by muzzy


Summat not quite right there

GFZ Event gfz2013hykj
13/04/23 23:14:42.91
New Ireland Region, P.N.G.
Epicenter: -3.86 152.09
MW 6.5

GFZ CENTROID MOMENT TENSOR SOLUTION
13/04/23 23:14:41.16
Centroid: -3.8 152.2
Depth 22 No. of sta: 88
Moment Tensor; Scale 10**18 Nm
Mrr= 0.09 Mtt= 6.01
Mpp=-6.10 Mrt=-1.15
Mrp=-1.19 Mtp= 1.26
Principal axes:
T Val= 6.40 Plg=12 Azm=173
N 0.01 75 34
P -6.41 9 265

Best Double Couple:Mo=6.4*10**18
NP1:Strike=309 Dip=75 Slip= 1
NP2: 219 89 165

###########
#################
#####################--
#####################----
------###############--------
----------##########---------
-------------######------------
-----------------##--------------
------------------#--------------
--------------#####------------
P -------------########----------
-----------###########---------
-----------##############------
---------################----
-------###################---
----#####################
--#####################
#################
###### ##

geofon.gfz-potsdam.de...

and EMSC are showing GFZ at 6.5

what? still showing 6.2 on the list and events page.
yeah its not like them to not match everything up.
It was 6.1M originally, thats the number I saved on the LISS SNZO graph of it, even though I thought it was bigger myself (based on the graph)
Russians had 6.1Ms.

further to post by muzzy

and

I'll review and do a page on eqarchives about this one after the 30 day mark, once things have been processed/reviewed again by CENC, but I wanted to get a handle now on how they operate, so I know how to set up my Excel pages.

Its weird how they (CENC) are reviewing the data, in bits and pieces, you would think they would start at the start but they seem to be doing it in blocks here and there.
I did this short animation to show how they are loading the data on

Ya_anAnimation

If you want to see it more than once just click your browser refresh, seems to work best in Chrome and IE
edit: seems to show the animation once on Firefox, then freeze up on the last image, could just be my own settings or..... dunno


I really hate that black background Firefox have now for images

Whats up with the lack of aftershocks after the Paupa quake???


earthquake.usgs.gov...


Any opinions on the matter?

reply to post by radpetey


There are aftershocks, just no one is bothering with them, can't tell for sure how big these are

Rabaul BHZ 25th I count 6 small ones

Rabaul BHZ 24th April I count 4 that are close by could be 4's, about 30 others as well look further away.

the 6.6 23rd April or 6.0Ms, or 6.3Ms, or 6.2M, or 6.5Mw, depends who you believe

maybe just not enough siesmographs in the area to pin down the locations, nearest other stations are at Honiara 1000km and Port Moresby 800km away


Not sure if this helps, could be a red herring, as seisme.nc (New Caledonia) come out with some weird and wild locations enough of the time that we consider them "unreliable"

New Ireland Region, P.N.G.
Latitude : 2.57 °S
Longitude : 153.86 °E
Depth : 0 Km
Date : 24/04/2013 08:21:32 (UTC)
Magnitude : 4.2 mb
Phase count : 7

It matches the big blue signal on the 24th graph, so if they are right, then the rest are likely below 4.0 and thats why you won't see any of the aftershocks on USGS as they only "do" above 4.5 outside the USA

was on the other side of New Ireland Island though

Planet has unusual period of silence between large earthquakes

April 24, 2013 – GEOLOGY - In the global aftershock zone that followed the major April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake, seismologists noticed an unusual pattern. The magnitude (M) 8.6 earthquake, a strike-slip event at intra-oceanic tectonic plates, caused global seismic rates of M=4.5 to rise for several days, even at distances thousands of kilometers from the main-shock site. However, the rate of M=6.5 seismic activity subsequently dropped to zero for the next 95 days. This period of quiet, without a large quake, has been a rare event in the past century. So why did this period of quiet occur? In his research presentation, Fred Pollitz of the U.S. Geological Survey suggests that the Indian Ocean earthquake caused short-term dynamic stressing of a global faulting system. Across the planet, there are faults that are “close to failure” and ready to rupture. It may be, suggests Pollitz and his colleagues, that a large quake encourages short-term triggering of these close-to-failure faults but also relieves some of the stress that has built up along these faults. Large magnitude events would not occur until tectonic movement loads stress back on to the faults at the ready-to-fail levels they reached before the main shock. Using a statistical model of global seismicity, Pollitz and his colleagues show that a transient seismic perturbation of the size of the April 2012 global aftershock would inhibit rupture in 88 percent of their possible M=6.5 earthquake fault sources over the next 95 days, regardless of how close they were to failure beforehand. -SD

theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com...

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel

you know that I'm going to check that out don't you
not the extinction site, but the ANSS archives for the 95 days after the "twin" 8's
tomorrow

I have convinced myself that the building collapse in Bangladesh was not all due to human negligence. Yes, I'm sure there was gross incompetence and corruption that led to the deaths.

www.reuters.com...

motherboard.vice.com...

Bangladesh is a low lying fertile plain. It is similar to New Orleans, the Nile Delta etc. I believe the large earthquakes on either side of the area has affected the soil and there has been subtle liquefaction. It would be unnoticeable in small buildings and in the subsoil. But when you have a new, massive concrete building (which is not build soundly) sitting on unstable ground, small changes can bring about large consequences.

Mexico city 1985.
en.wikipedia.org...

If you don't have the foundations reaching bedrock, essentially, you are building your house on sand. or rather, quick sand.

Trust me, I can link this story to earthquakes. "Natural gas, clean, safe, affordable." "Now, you're cooking with gas."
Here's a barge of gas. Mobile, Alabama. I wonder if it show up on a seismo somewhere.
www.vancouversun.com...




Oklahoma is still carrying on. New pumping? Leftover-aftershocks? I don't know. Natural? I doubt it.

2.6 5km NE of Luther, Oklahoma 2013-04-25 04:58:39 35.698°N 97.162°W 5.0
2.8 10km ENE of Luther, Oklahoma 2013-04-24 22:54:33 35.708°N 97.093°W 5.0
3.3 10km ENE of Luther, Oklahoma 2013-04-24 18:04:22 35.690°N 97.089°W 5.0
2.7 2km E of Luther, Oklahoma 2013-04-23 19:33:58 35.659°N 97.171°W 6.2
2.7 3km NNE of Jones, Oklahoma 2013-04-22 00:00:22 35.597°N 97.266°W 4.7
2.8 5km E of Luther, Oklahoma 2013-04-19 18:40:04 35.657°N 97.138°W 2.5



((((((Eric Blair's tombstone is simple. Forget about his macro-views on the world and government. IT all came about because he focused on the small and seemingly insignificant. He was right about the this future-present government control and deception. But what he obsessed with most was poverty. He wanted to know. He wanted to know how the poor died. and found out)
))))))))))
(((((((even when i'm not being he, i'm not wasting my time... but there's so much more I could do, if.... I haven't mistakenly taken that vow. the truth cannot be found on a road littered with materials and consumables... you must go without))))))))

reply to post by angelchemuel

April 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake.....................However, the rate of M=6.5 seismic activity subsequently dropped to zero for the next 95 days.

Incorrect, in the 95 days afterwards there were 5 earthquakes above 6.5, and 2 more within the "few days" afterwards (I take a few days to mean 3 day max)
the 5 events start date is 17/4/2012, six days later.
Does not include aftershocks of the actual twin 8 events, or anything within 3 degrees lat/long.

Fred Pollitz of the U.S. Geological Survey should look at his USGS/ANSS data and write a retraction.

Taking account that there WERE earthquakes in the 95day period above 6.5, perhaps there was something else there, like "there were less quakes than normal"
so comparing in 95 day block periods (how else can you compare it
2012/04/11 +95days = 7 events
next 95 day period = 8 events
next 95 day period = 11 events
next 95 day period = 4 events
then the next mag 8+
2013/02/06 +95day [= 12 events (already)

I started backwards to see if the rest of what he said stacked up.

previous mag 8+ was the Honshu 9.1
again doesn't include aftershocks of that or anything within 10 degrees lat/long
2012/03/11 +95days = 7 events
next 95 day period = 6 events
next 95 day period = 18 events
next 95 day period = 9 events
next 95 day period = 6 events
then the Indian Ocean twin 8's

previous mag 8+ to Honshu was Chile in 2010
again doesn't include aftershocks of that or anything within 10 degrees lat/long
2010/02/27 +95days = 17 events
next 95 day period = 21 events
next 95 day period = 5 events
next 95 day period = 14 events
then the Honshu

sorry Fred, there appears to be no trend at all that I can see.
Maybe if its broken down into other time periods you could get the data to fit the theory.
nothing to see here folks, move along please

here is the data that I used to reach my conclusion text file opens as html

pity Fred didn't present HIS data


I posted this over on that extinction blog comments
"Your comment is awaiting moderation"
will be interesting to see if it gets approved .
6 bloggers "liked" the original post
I wonder how many are going to like the discreditation (is that a word?)

reply to post by muzzy


Froze in my FF as well.

Sorry, could not resist.....pause and re-show - and if you click it gets bigger!

PM removed the comment as it was already answered and had no purpose. Shame we can't delete them!