Something interesting I just noticed

Originally posted by purplemer

Originally posted by Zarniwoop

Pretty interesting, is it just a coincidence?

Just a coincidence.

Each incident had the same 1 in 29.5 or so chance of happening on that particular phase of the moon. Those aren't huge odds.

The probability of these two events happening under the same moon phase are about 870/1.

What math did you use to come to that figure??? The moon is constantly changing phase, these "phases" are man-made inventions. In the OP, she is splitting the moon into 29.5 phases, which means the odds the events will happen on the same phase is just 29.5/1, much smaller than the odds you cited.

Edit: I see what you have done, multiplied 29.5 by 29.5. This is incorrect, this is not the odds for the event happening on the same phase, it is the odss for both events happening on that exact partiicular phase, which we have no great reason to prioritise over any other.

In short, your odds are wrong.

The OP's coincidence is no more of a coincidence than them both happening on the same day of the month.

I'm not sure what everyone is getting excited about.

Good observation, I have always had an interest and enjoyed deep thoughts and conversations about the moons existence...even at a very young age before my mind had possibly been swayed by sites such as ATS, I have always felt that something is just not 'right' about the moon. There is always something major happening in my experience around full moons, like a taxi driver crashing into a tree (R.I.P) in Middlesbrough seconds before I walked past, and many other instances such as big life highlights like amazing gigs I have performed at and such, just always seem to fall on full moons?

Sorry for the skewed rant, I'm enjoying this thread...thank you. Peace and Warmth

Originally posted by humphreysjim

Originally posted by purplemer

Originally posted by Zarniwoop

Pretty interesting, is it just a coincidence?

Just a coincidence.

Each incident had the same 1 in 29.5 or so chance of happening on that particular phase of the moon. Those aren't huge odds.

The probability of these two events happening under the same moon phase are about 870/1.

What math did you use to come to that figure??? The moon is constantly changing phase, these "phases" are man-made inventions. In the OP, she is splitting the moon into 29.5 phases, which means the odds the events will happen on the same phase is just 29.5/1, much smaller than the odds you cited.

Edit: I see what you have done, multiplied 29.5 by 29.5. This is incorrect, this is not the odds for the event happening on the same phase, it is the odss for both events happening on that exact partiicular phase, which we have no great reason to prioritise over any other.

In short, your odds are wrong.

edit on 20-12-2012 by humphreysjim because: (no reason given)

The odds of the two events happening on the same phase is calculated correctly wtf are you talking about? They calculated the odds for the two events occurring on the same particular moon phase and you say he is wrong because of what?

Nothing . . . . other than you alone have no reason to think there may be a connection.

It has been said for a long time that there are cults in places of power, this could be a possibility.

Edit
Lol after reading most of the denial skeptics I think I have figured out a mantra for you to chant when you get upset.

"Coincidence coincidence coincidence coincidence coincidence coincidence coincidence coincidence maybe"

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

The odds of the two events happening on the same phase is calculated correctly wtf are you talking about? They calculated the odds for the two events occurring on the same particular moon phase and you say he is wrong because of what?

Nothing . . . . other than you alone have no reason to think there may be a connection.

It has been said for a long time that there are cults in places of power, this could be a possibility.

No, there are 29.5 possible phases according to the OP, yes? Therefore, the odds are 29.5 to one that two events would occur on the same phase.

After the first event, there was a one in 29.5 chance of the next one happening on the same phase.

Which part do you disagree with? He multiplied 29.5 by 29.5, which is wrong.

Event A happened on a certain moon phase, for event B to happen on the same phase, the odds are 29.5/1.

Unless you are giving that particular moon phase special importance, which would be silly.

Pick a number from 1-30. Write it down. I'll pick one too. What's the odds we will pick the same number.

Obviously 30/1, not 900/1 (30 x 30, which is what you're doing with the moon phases).

reply to post by humphreysjim


There are two events the first one had a 1/29.5 chance and the second one had a 1/29.5 chance

How to Calculate Probability
www.wikihow.com...

Multiply the probability of each event by one another. This will give you the probability of multiple events occurring one after another.

What is the probability of rolling two consecutive fives on a six-sided die?
The probability of both events is 1/6.
This gives us 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36 or .027 or 2.7%.

These are consecutive cases. Given that they are both mass murders with a connection to the Batman flick and the same phase of the moon was occurring the least one could do with the odds would be 1/900. That is despite the fact that this was also the phase during Columbine and Gabrielle Gifford's shooting which are so far unrelated but have been speculated false flag/MK operations.

Please find a better objection than poor math skills.

reply to post by humphreysjim


Thank you for your reply. Maths is not my strongest subject. I did not really understand your explanation. If I was wrong in my calculation could you please explain why I was wrong and how I should have worked it out. I thought it would be the same as trying to work out for example throwing two sixes on a dice. That would be a 1/36 chance or am I wrong here too...

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
reply to post by humphreysjim

 

There are two events the first one had a 1/29.5 chance and the second one had a 1/29.5 chance

I know how to calculate probability. You clearly don't.

Once the first shooting had occurred, it no longer had a 29.5 to one probability, it had a 1 probability because it had already happened. Now you want to calculate the chance of a future shooting occurring on the same moon phase, which is 29.5 to one.

Had someone made a prediction prior to both events that both shootings would have occurred on that exact moon phase, then you would be right in stating 870/1 odds, but the isn't what happened. I don't know how better to explain the basic error you are making.

Originally posted by purplemer
reply to post by humphreysjim

 

Thank you for your reply. Maths is not my strongest subject. I did not really understand your explanation. If I was wrong in my calculation could you please explain why I was wrong and how I should have worked it out. I thought it would be the same as trying to work out for example throwing two sixes on a dice. That would be a 1/36 chance or am I wrong here too...

In that case you would be right, but what we are really calculating is the odds of throwing two of the same number, it doesn't have to be two sixes, it can be two 1s, two 2s, etc.

In the OP, we are calculating the odds of two events occurring in the same moon phase, regardless of what phase that is. We have no reason to give any particular phase special treatment.

In your example it has to be two sixes, but for two shootings to be in the same phase, what ever phase that may be, you would not multiply the odds together. Does that make sense?

Say you throw one die and it's a 4. What are the odds you'll throw another 4? 6/1, not 36/1.

What are the odds of two people sharing the same birthday? Is it 365/1 or 13225/1?

Obviously is it 365/1. When you guys understand why, you'll see where you're miscalculating here.

reply to post by humphreysjim


The probability for consecutive mass murders in the same moon phase is about 1/900

The probability that a mass murder would occur in a certain moon phase is 1/29.5.

The premise of this thread was a connection between the two so you would have multiply them as they are consecutive.

You are trying to play lame math games and are not adding anything but confusion to the issue, nice try. The probability does not become 1 ever unless there is 100% accuracy in prediction.

Once one of the actions occurs at odds of 1/29.5 the odds that the next will also occur in the same phase are 1/29.5 however the odds that both will occur in the same is calculated using consecutive probability which is about 1/870.

Please stop trying to change the dynamics of mathematics to fit your world view.

Originally posted by humphreysjim
What are the odds of two people sharing the same birthday? Is it 365/1 or 13225/1?

Obviously is it 365/1. When you guys understand why, you'll see where you're miscalculating here.

The odds that a person with specific condition is born on a certain day is 1/365 the odds that another person with this same condition is born on that same day after the first is 1/13225.

Do you see the error you are making here?

reply to post by MsAphrodite


December 13 was a new moon. New moons generally signify new beginnings. It is sad that a new beginning associated with these new moons would be toward a phase of new gun control measures which the planners of Agenda 21 and the NWO have in mind to disarm the populace and neuter the resistance to it's Totalitarian regime. Have you noticed new attitudes even among former pro-gun politicians to one of acquiescence to the plan? i have, and it's similar to the attitudes of supposedly Republicans and more conservative groups of people in media to accept the changes in society that the Planners have put forth through their social engineering programs and media manipulation.

It's a new attitude but not necessarily for the better.

Both Barack and Eric mentioned after the shootings that we must think about what our nation is and think about our rights and look at new gun rights legislation. They have a definite idea in their mind of what they want. Even if they only take a few steps in that direction, they know, as Fabian Socialists know, that a few steps usually don't alarm people the same way something more drastic would, for instance, a ban on semi automatic weapons is less drastic than complete gun confiscation, although I assure you complete confiscation and banning is in the works, both from a National and Intl level with the UN Small Arms Treaty as setting the precedent for world confiscation and control.
There are still many people who are taking the bait, thinking our govt really cares about all those children and really want the best for all of us. It simply is not the case that govt is truly looking out for us, they want control of us.
I recommend everyone read Rosa Koire's new book "Behind the Green Mask" and I keep posting it, because it all makes sense what is happening when you see the outline of it in her book.

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

The odds that a person with specific condition is born on a certain day is 1/365 the odds that another person with this same condition is born on that same day after the first is 1/13225.

What condition? What are you even talking about?

What are the odds me and you were born on the same day of the year? 365/1, or 13225/1?

If you think 13225/1, you need to go back to school

I would welcome a maths expert to come in and settle this right now, because I know I'm right here.

Originally posted by eagleeye2
reply to post by MystikMushroom

 

The moon phase doesnt look exactly like OP showed, close though.
What about V Tech, Norway, Dawson College (Canada), 9-11, 7-7?


/eta
So far only vtech is close.

edit on 19-12-2012 by eagleeye2 because: (no reason given)

Well, whatever you say it did or didn't look like, I checked and the moon phase of both aurora and Sandy Hook showed a new moon on the previous day. Please see my post for analysis of it.

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

The probability for consecutive mass murders in the same moon phase is about 1/900

The probability that a mass murder would occur in a certain moon phase is 1/29.5.

The premise of this thread was a connection between the two so you would have multiply them as they are consecutive.

Riiiight, so the odds of throwing two of the same number on a dice is 36/1 (6 x 6), right?

I would truly love to play poker against you, some time. LOL.

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

You are trying to play lame math games and are not adding anything but confusion to the issue, nice try. The probability does not become 1 ever unless there is 100% accuracy in prediction.

Lame maths games? I call it correcting your abuse of probability, and seeing as this is a thread about coincidences and probability, it's quite important it's done right.

Originally posted by humphreysjim

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

The odds that a person with specific condition is born on a certain day is 1/365 the odds that another person with this same condition is born on that same day after the first is 1/13225.

What condition? What are you even talking about?

What are the odds me and you were born on the same day of the year? 365/1, or 13225/1.

If you think 13225/1, you need to go back to school

You are not following the linear nature of the events as in one following the other. You would be right if you were talking about two separate instances but that is not the case here.

ie: if one event occurs what is the probability the next event will be the same?
How to Calculate the Probability of Consecutive Events
www.ehow.com...

I have already provided you text to help you with this so maybe a video will help you more effectively.

I am back in school and just finished up calc 3 working towards my electrical and electromagnetic engineering. I know probability.


Poker is a zero sum game . . . . rolling dice is is not limited by a total card count. I would love to play cards with you I think it would be very entertaining.

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

You are not following the linear nature of the events as in one following the other. You would be right if you were talking about two separate instances but that is not the case here.

Of course one follows the other. One of us was born, and then the other was.

I am asking what are the chances we were born on the same day of the year?

Just like the shooting, there was one mass shooting, then another, what are the chances they were in the same moon phase? EXACTLY the same process is used to calculate the probability, and in neither case do you multiple them together.

Chances of us sharing a birth date=365/1. Chances of two shootings in the same moon phase = 29.5/1.

Thanks for playing. Stay in school.

Originally posted by humphreysjim

Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli

You are not following the linear nature of the events as in one following the other. You would be right if you were talking about two separate instances but that is not the case here.

Of course one follows the other. One of us was born, and then the other was.

I am asking what are the chances we were born on the same day of the year?

Just like the shooting, there was one mass shooting, then another, what are the chances they were in the same moon phase? EXACTLY the same process is used to calculate the probability, and in neither case do you multiple them together.

Chances of us sharing a birth date=365/1. Chances of two shootings in the same moon phase = 29.5/1.

Thanks for playing. Stay in school.

edit on 20-12-2012 by humphreysjim because: (no reason given)

OMG you are not including the timeline . . .

If there was a 1/29.5 chance of a mass murder taking place on a certain phase what are the odds that the first and 2nd mass murder would take place on the same phase. That is how you get 1/29.5*1/29.5

The odds independent of time would be 1/29.5 you are arguing outside the context of the issue here.

So, let's talk about one example. Let's say what is the probability of getting three white balls in a row?

This is from your link, sir.

This is the difference, you are MANDATING that the ball be white. The first ball MUST be white to match the prediction, right?

With the shootings, the first shooting can fall in ANY moon phase, and the second only has to match it, that's the difference. That's why you don't multiply the first shooting, because the chance it will fall in any of the possible moon phases is 1, not 29.5/1.

Get it?