It's just a matter of days, now...

reply to post by herrw

My equations could very well be way off mark. As I said, they are relational rather than mathematical. However, they are based on the premise that collectives function in much the same way most of the time. Central to the equations is the series P(xT/d^2), where d=time, x=nature (hunger, moral, etc), T=severity of threat, and P= prestige, although P may be applied to any area of the equation. I really wish ATS had a function wherein I could upload a rtf file to show them. I would love the feedback.

How about hand-written equations - You can load the page/s then in that manner

I feel as if I should explain the relationship of some of the variables in the equation, now that I've found a way to share it.

d is an important variable, when you consider its relationship to everything else. Given enough time, the most mediocre of threats can escalate into a huge panic. As time reduces to the point where the threat is realized, the strength of the threat increases (d is a negative value until it reaches 0, or the present, which causes the equation to transform as the threat becomes infinitely real). Once the threat has passed, it remains an effect on society until enough time has passed to reduce it's influence to near nothing. Such was the case with the attacks on the World Trade Center (not trying to open a debate on their cause here... just looking at their effect). Immediately after the attacks, the United States was fairly unified in thought and emotion. It was not until weeks later that the mental unity devolved enough that our reactions might be questioned. Months were required to really generate interest in a 9/11 truth movement.

The nature of the threat does not matter, except in the way that responses are directed. Hunger threats tend to make us want to change the way that we rely on our food. Translated to large groups, that becomes a revolutionary tendency, or a rejection of current leadership. We blame the people in charge, because we trusted them to make sure we could feed ourselves. Security threats tend to result in armed resistance. Yes, a hunger threat may evolve into a security threat (say, marauding gangs of thugs) but then it becomes both a hunger threat and a security threat, rather than one or the other. The two are separated for clarity. Energy threats (real or implied) tend to involve the ability to achieve the staples of life (access to communication/internet is a fine example, as is access to fuel and access to electricity). These tend to result in industry. Finally, Moral threats involve any ideal or dogma which is threatened from any quarter. This includes liberalism, conservatism, libertarianism, and holy-isis-the-aliens-are-attacking-ism. Moral threats generate responses of expulsion and, given the percieved severity of the threat, murder. Executions for offending Allah, or excommunication for violations of church dogma would be excellent examples.

Prestige is a directing influence which is afforded in varying degrees to individuals. These individuals will be either internal leadership or external leadership. Internal leadership tends to be of the more populist variety, while external leadership tends to be of the more 'star chamber' variety. Internal leaders are generally very good at generating sentiment, but poor at planning future activities. External leadership tends to keep an eye to the future regardless of what effect it might have on any specific individual.

Consideration of the tendency towards action for a given nature of threat helps determine likely outcome. Disagreement with my segmentation is welcome, although I might humbly request historical examples which support the argument. I love being wrong. It means that I get to be right in the future.

Originally posted by herrw

Originally posted by Bluesquid
Thank you Herr for posting your thoughts. Not everyday that I get to read the thoughts of an obvious genius. I bought your book and plan to delve into it tonight. Only then will I feel like I can re read your comments, and perhaps have something to offer in return.

Best thread of the year in my opinion.

No one is a genius. We all have a certain amount of attention which we can devote to any given subject. I'm a horrible cook, lousy as an auto mechanic, and my dog won't listen to me. I'm sure that you have a great deal of advantage upon me in at least one of those three failings, if not the many many more which were not listed.

That being said, thank you. I hope you find it germaine.

And humble too?

I like you even more. i have always given heed to

“In my walks, every man I meet is my superior in some way, and in that I learn from him.”


― Ralph Waldo Emerson

Originally posted by herrw
I have created a CreateSpace location with preview capacity, and uploaded the Mental Unity Equations in .pdf format. Anyone and everyone is welcome to view them here:

www.createspace.com...

These equations will not make a lot of sense unless the reader has some grounding on the theories upon which they are based. Those theories are posited in The Collective, By William R. Herr. The Collective is a restatement and extension of the theories originally expounded by Gustave LeBon in The Crowd: a Study of the Popular Mind. A free copy of The Collective is available here:

www.createspace.com...

Moderators: These digital copies are of work to which I hold the copyright. Distribution of the latter in the form of review copies (which this is) does not compromise any legal or ethical rights. There is no intent to solicit the purchase of my book. This is simply an attempt to share knowledge by the most expedient means possible, rather than flounder in the discussion of theories which have not been distributed between conversants. I humbly request your understanding in this matter, as the equations in the former link cannot be translated directly into text.

Thank you,

William R. Herr

wow.. very interesting my opinion of you just went up 10 fold ( i thought you were trying to sell books) I'll be reviewing your work with great interest in the next few hours I'm interested in seeing your equations and analyses of group think in general..

reply to post by gnosticagnostic
Again, thank you. I don't need to hawk my book, as it has been selling quite well on its own without undue attention. It reached #4 on the politics/history topic line, beating out Coulter and Twain. It has since sunk in popularity, but has achieved very nice sales in India (which I don't quite understand, but appreciate).

I don't make much money off of it. It's just there to share the information. I don't care if anyone buys it or not, but if they do I hope they feel it was worth the investment. It would be free except for the fact that publishers must make a profit and nothing free is ever valued highly. Free books generally go unread.

reply to post by herrw


au contraire mon frere.. i read a free book off the amazon list everyday.. granted i read alot of sh#t but i do find precious gems every once in a while. I wonder if it's so popular in India for a reason? That is certainly interesting. This has been an awesome thread. I'm looking forward to your work.

reply to post by herrw


Again, look at post USSR Cuba.

There are invisible leaders in society who do not hold titles or positions of power or celebrity, who lead by example. People who have strong connections to the truth, that people recognize, and so choose to follow their leads.

Personally, I think one's ability to admit that they are wrong is probably the most overlooked critical trait for a good grasp of the truth.

Originally posted by gnosticagnostic
reply to post by herrw

 

au contraire mon frere.. i read a free book off the amazon list everyday.. granted i read alot of sh#t but i do find precious gems every once in a while. I wonder if it's so popular in India for a reason? That is certainly interesting. This has been an awesome thread. I'm looking forward to your work.

edit on 21-10-2012 by gnosticagnostic because: (no reason given)

I know a recent immigrant from India, and I asked him about this. He admitted that he could not be sure, but that books about history sell very well in India, regardless of translation. According to him, in the cities books are mainly devoured electronically, and the greater percentage of readers also speak and read fluent english. I don't know for sure. I'm just gratified that someone felt my work worth study.

Originally posted by herrw
Free books generally go unread.

You mean like Gideons Bible found in cheap motel rooms? I have found myself seeking solace in the "word" on many a sad occasion.

I'm glad your book is being received well! I wish I could say the same about my screenplays!

Originally posted by herrw
reply to post by okyouwin

 

Thank you for your response, and I agree that my qualifications section (such as it is) isn't very impressive. I included it only to ensure that everyone knew from the outset that I am just a crackpot author whose pedigree is unimpressive. That was by design, and not by chance. I can't effectively study anything from within a slanted system, so I remain always on the outside looking in, on purpose. It helps that I prefer my life in that manner (as does my wife).

I further agree that I didn't go far enough in describing the theories that led to the equations, nor was I able to share them up until now. I have found a way to do so, if the kind moderators will allow it to stand.

I welcome your thoughts. Keep in mind that the equations are relational and not mathematical. Yes, it would be easily possible to plug numbers into them for an arbitrary result, but the result would say absolutely nothing. It is the nature of the variables and the way that they interact which is important. Also keep in mind that the equations do not predict specific occurrences. They predict increases in mental unity and the types of potential responses which result.

Well I'm glad she's sticking with you through out this. Your wife that is.

I understand the nature of the equations. I would think they would need to be stimulus and response, and interpretation of relationship or interaction of these two. I suppose you are saying that events are happening at a pretty good clip and it's only natural for you with your background and understanding to give values to both time until response and intensity and duration of response event. changes in these factors would be indicators of future activity.

I think you have it a little more detailed than this and I'm betting it even goes beyond the actual event and samples general moods and behaviors of the population in question. I bet it's a real slick system. and I can't wait till the moderators give you the big go.

I'm afraid though that by the time any one understands it, your time line will have passed. Doom averted once more.. No I'm just kidding you. I agree things are happening real fast. Hell's a popping all over. I see you have something farther into the thread and I'm going to read more. Just a little advice though. don't get too disappointed if things are slow in coming. I, for one, am sure as hell rooting for the slow. But you may be onto something.

Should I forget. Good luck with the book.

Originally posted by poet1b
I have written a book as well, titled "The Pursuit of Common Sense", which touches on this theme. The technological advancements of the last hundred plus years have removed people who live in first world nations from the natural arena of the struggle for survival, and placed us in this new artificial arena, where mainly we struggle with how much is too much.

Morality exists to establish human trust. If your neighbor murders your other neighbor, you don't want the murderer living next door, because they might murder you or someone you love. This is the basis for morality, law, police, jails, all that. It has nothing to do with being good so you can get into heaven. Part of the problem is that a large percentage of us have become too intelligent to buy into the whole religious scam.

If we run into a food shortage, then we will start to see society break down. I don't think a collective is strong enough to break nature community bonds that will come together, IMO, should the first world nations start to see a serious food shortage.

I have to ask, have you looked at how Cuba reacted to food shortages after the USSR fell apart. I would think that a study of this recent modern event would be critical in understanding how a modern society and communities will react to a food shortage.

There is a real planet wide crisis developing, but I don't think it will be triggered by inflation, and I think there is very little probability that this will happen in the next week or next couple of weeks, but if it does, my hats off to ya for such an amazing prediction.

The Arab world is experiencing two major problems at the same time, that will soon be coming to our shores. One, the oil in the middle east is running out, and those nations have been running off of welfare from the oil money. As exports decline, the welfare check is running dry in countries who have experience unsustainable population booms. At the same time, Global Warming is creating ever worse droughts, and there are a lot of hungry people.

As global climate change worsens, and we run out of the easy to get light sweet crude, even the first world nations are going to experience very severe crisis situations.

The problem isn't collectives, IMO, but institutions that have grown up everywhere in our modern world. These institutions allow people to hide behind the mask of the institutional entity, and commit horrible crimes, for which they are not held accountable. When these numerous crises hit, these institutions will act in the coldest and cruelest of manners. People will have to choose between loyalty to the institution, or to the communities they live in.

What we will likely see is corporations trying to establish territorial control. It will be institutions verses communities.

edit on 20-10-2012 by poet1b because: typo

Have you ever watched an old barn fall down? For years you watch this thing crumble. You study it as you go past every day. You see it lean, You figure you know which way it's going to fall.Over the years it becomes more obvious. And then one day it moves, and I'll be if something didn't catch on the inside that kept it from falling down. Didn't look a whole lot different. And we begin the watch and wait all over. Still pretty much sure what's going to happen.

I wouldn't pooh pooh history too much. that's probably your best source of likely events.

Everybody likes a good doom story and I think we are in for one. foretelling when has proven to be difficult.

Originally posted by okyouwin

I wouldn't pooh pooh history too much. that's probably your best source of likely events.

First off , I liked the Falling Barn Analogy.
As to your above quote, usually History is a good Indicator of how Present things will play out.
But there are so many Variables Present today that History hasnt been privy too.
Global Markets, Global Workforce, Deficits greater than Countries GDP, Computer Controlled Markets and Defaulting Countries.

reply to post by okyouwin


I also like the barn analogy.

My profession is analyzing things that fail. I get where you are coming from,

But I am not pooh poohing history, I think some historians put too much emphasis on the French Revolution, but then again going all Robespierre on the ICBs wouldn't upset me too much.

Originally posted by herrw

Hunger threats result in a tendency for revolution.

I agree with the other two, but not this one unless things really change for the worst. It is suggested that the daily calorie diet needs to drop below 800 in a society for this to happen...we got a long way to go before we even come close to that.

reply to post by herrw


yep. that sounds about right..

ive been watching for the hyperinflation to hit from all the bank bailouts

from day one...

peace..

and welcome to the show

We are at a stage in our society now, where some version of what you speak of, is sure to happen. as mentioned in other posts, there is no turning back now. As a nation, we are in a freefall, and most sheeple don't know they are falling, as they haven't had that sudden stop yet. But they are close.
What I am seeing in our society now, is an awakening, and an a giant WTF coming, as many of the sheeple realize they have been lied to, cheated, and enslaved, all at the same time. I see this every day. But, this new ralization will be too little, too late. as I said, we are in an unstopable freefall.
There is nothing new in all this. Everything that is going to happen, has happened before. It's time for one cycle to end, and another to begin.
I remind my grown children everyday, that very soon, nothing will be as it has been, for a very long time--get ready. I don't think they believe me---but they will soon enough.

You are correct in many points with your ideas. Two weeks may be less may be more. It has all been set up to go this way for about ten years. In order to have a great shift arise from this point in time you must take down the old system. I am not talking about the government, the economy, religion. But, the structure base of the reality you currently reside in. All the banks are set to collapse real soon, and they know it. In the chaos of this collapse where the world, as you know it, comes to a standstill. The human race will be given a new set of laws, and a form of debt forgiveness will come about. If you see many problems with this, then let us throw in another factor that is occurring at a very rapid pace. What if everyone on the planet gained the ability to read everyone elses thoughts. Seems unreal well do the research and see how true this is coming to be. Why destroy the banks because they are the source of power for those who would keep the planet as it is? But none of this matters much in the bigger picture where all this around us changes so fast you will not be able to keep up. What if at this moment, there was introduced a machine that what produce food. As well, you found that you needed very little of it to survive. Get ready because the world, as you know, it is about to change. The understanding of who you thought you were is about to expand beyond anything you could have imagined. Why do you think the internet came to be so fast because consciousness is a virus taking over this dying reality? The only thing holding everything back is the very few still holding on. That is where the bank collapse comes in and destroys the dead system.

The world has actually been here a coupel of times before...

Consider, for example, the lead up to the French Revolution...

For years, the kings fo France had run various wars and acted to prevent it from impacting the economy.

They did this by...

1. They raised huge levels of debt. At the eve of the French Revolution, interest levels had hit 20$.

2. They sold off "aristocratic titles" to fund and then passed ever increasing restricted practices to ensure what they were selling was still worth cash. For instance, one could not become a doctor, a lawyer or an officer in the army if one was not an aristocrat, hence to become an aristocrat, people raised huge levels of debt to finance becoming an aristocrat....HOWEVER, very, very few Americans understand the concept of :"aristocrat".- In pre-revolution France, an "aristocrat" included becoming a "squire" in short, it was someone who had a university degree.

This is being closely repeated in the USA. You can't get any decent jobs unless you have a degree or a high school diploma for which people borrow huge amounts an dthe Government is passing ever more laws to restrict access to various jobs to ensure that funds pour into universities and colleges. Just listen to any and every politician in the US, education is ALWAYS on the agenda.

Similarly, no-bid contracts closely ressemble the French Kings "tax exemptions " and monopoly laws for under the table payments.

Meanwhile debt levels are soaring.

From this it beomes quickly possible to see what will happen next.

The end of Pre-revolutionary France...

With the economy strung up with laws prohibiting employment without a sky-high priced university degree in pre-revolutionary France, the economy tanked with only the wealthy and often stupid able to take key jobs in the economy like doctor, dentist of army officer. ANy cash made in the country was poured into the mushrooming Gvoernment debt as tax income collapsed. Having sold off so many monopolies (no-bid contracts) and tax exemptions, the only way for the King of France to reverse the decline was to get everyone to allow him to expand the tax base again. As this would involve getting everyone to tear up at least part of their contractual benefits that they had paid top dollar for, it required a meeting of all the levels of the social strata, anmely the ordinary, unqualified folk, the "aristocrats" in general those with a UNiversity degree and the clergy who were wholly tax exempt.

The King then states that he can't finance the debt interest without his debt ceiling raised and new taxes leveled.. The part of this "Estates General" then refuses any increase in taxes or his debt ceiling. Panic spreads across the market and the stock market collapses on FEARS of a default, making it impossible for new bonds to be raised and becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy - banks then collapse with everyone forclosing ion everyone else.. With everyone's pension and savings in the French King's debt and in banks that have now collapses, everyone faces bankruptcy and hence exclusion from doing trade in the professions for which they carry huge student debt burdens. Anger grows. And people pre-empt the possibility of violent by raiding the armouries. However, with the army officers realising that they are not going to be paid and that they will go bankrupt themselves as they carry huge student loans in order to get their job as an army officer, they abandon their posts and go home. With army munitions being raided, fears grow of a backlash against dissidents grows so the "Gitmo" of its day, the Bastille is raided by a bunch of intellectuals whjo have lost everything in the crash.

With all pretence to law having collapsed, riads on the superrich who have survived the crash or can't pay their bills begins and spreads faster and faster until people are attacking their nextdoor neighbours simply because they had the university degree and could work as doctor and they could not. As a result, the economy total y stops as people fear going out so supply of food stops, triggering hunger and rioting and looting. Paranoia spreads with everything being blamed on the debt-laden aristocrats (university degree holders) and in the midst of chaos, a new committee is set up of non-university degree people (ie stupid people) who begin killing anyone and everyone.

I hold that human nature is eminently predictable, when those individuals are joined together in groups. But I will agree to disagree.


I agree with you 100%

Tell me how the story starts - I'll tell you how it ends.