It's just a matter of days, now...

Originally posted by herrw
reply to post by moniesisfun

 

Actually, the theory of mental unity is based strongly on Maslow's work. However, one cannot rationalize reactions to threats. One must document what is observed in the most impiricist way possible. If we attempt to rationalize, or to assign value of any sort whatsoever, we apply our own prejudice to the problem and invalidate any results.

I think you meant, empiricist. A rationalization is a false belief. You seem to believe that objective measurement of human interaction is actually possible to accurately predict the future, indefinitely. It's not. It's in constant flux. Our nature is not set in stone. Game theory has it's limitations, and it's benefits. So the prejudgment is that you assume the subjective can approach objectivity. I think this is an invalid assumption.

A hunger threat is simply that: a hunger threat. It is the threat of hunger, or lack of food. A hunger threat is not a threat of immediate physical harm, such as getting shot.

That in no way excludes the threat from being a security threat.

Food Threat

Rationally, we might reason that being hungry is a threat to one's security, or that security of the necessities of life is important (and it is) but security of situation exists at a higher level on the motivational heirarchy than survival. And it is the survival mechanisms which aggregate in collectives.

Security of situation?

How about, I have no food, or I perceive to be lacking in ability to secure food. That is the situation. It is a food security issue.

Great first thread!

I am a believer in your hunger theory! People are just not motivated enough to change how things are, unless they are immediately threatened with hunger. As a small example; I was buying 1.5kg peanut butter for $5.00 a tub back in February 2012. Now that same Tub is going for $12.99 and just does not go on sale any more. I often wonder when the tipping point for people is going to be....as it is a staple food for the poor.

As for your Moral theory; I just do not see it as such a factor anymore in the traditional sense. That being, a religious moral offense of some form. There are just to many people, not really believing enough in anything anymore, for them to become outraged. Atheism, and spirituality are becoming the dominant "religions" so to speak. Sure there is a lot of outrage over cultural differences, but it just does not have the weight it used to. The internet has made people too indifferent to issues other than sending mass e-mails, or signing online petitions. My point is that for whatever issue it is...most are not going to leave the house to do anything about it.

My vote is that the Hunger scare from this years heat wave, is the tipping point that has not been entirely felt yet. Next years heat wave, or other food disaster should put the nail in the coffin.

Looking forward to your input!

reply to post by moniesisfun


You're confusing the second level of Maslow's heirarchy, security of resources, with the first level: security of person. It's the need to establish shelter, and to protect one's offspring. If you have no food, you will have a hunger threat. If someone threatens to take your food, you have a second-level security threat. As we develop through the heirarchy we differentiate ourselves from our fellow man. In a collective, it is only those things which every man (and/or woman) has in common which contributes to the collective intellect.

Hunger threat is hunger threat.
Security threat is security threat.

My equations don't attempt to predict the future into perpetuity. Consider the following: if I were to release a large drop of water onto a concrete slab, the water would create a somewhat predictable form (if I knew the nature of the slab's geometry combined with the size of the drop, etc.) Smaller drops of water would scatter from that initial impact. I would have little hope of estimating their size, direction of travel, etc. Further, if they splattered into still more droplets, calculating their paths and sizes would be a near impossibility. However, I can still say that they will all be comprised of water, that they will all exhibit the same boiling point, that they will sublimate at a rate proscribed by their surface area, and that they will tend to reform when they come in contact with each other. I don't need to know where they're going to predict how they'll act. I just need to know what they're made of.

The object is to take what you know, and to extrapolate based on fact.

Originally posted by theclutch
Great first thread!

I am a believer in your hunger theory! People are just not motivated enough to change how things are, unless they are immediately threatened with hunger. As a small example; I was buying 1.5kg peanut butter for $5.00 a tub back in February 2012. Now that same Tub is going for $12.99 and just does not go on sale any more. I often wonder when the tipping point for people is going to be....as it is a staple food for the poor.

As for your Moral theory; I just do not see it as such a factor anymore in the traditional sense. That being, a religious moral offense of some form. There are just to many people, not really believing enough in anything anymore, for them to become outraged. Atheism, and spirituality are becoming the dominant "religions" so to speak. Sure there is a lot of outrage over cultural differences, but it just does not have the weight it used to. The internet has made people too indifferent to issues other than sending mass e-mails, or signing online petitions. My point is that for whatever issue it is...most are not going to leave the house to do anything about it.

My vote is that the Hunger scare from this years heat wave, is the tipping point that has not been entirely felt yet. Next years heat wave, or other food disaster should put the nail in the coffin.

Looking forward to your input!

Everyone believes in something. Almost everyone is willing, at some level, to fight for it. It doesn't need to be religion in the classic sense. Are you a conservative? If so, you will have conservative dogma to which you adhere (to one degree or another). Liberal? Same deal. Atheist? Wow, they have inviolable dogma like you wouldn't believe (I have a good number of friends who are atheists. They still talk to me because I do not violate their dogma by attempting to save their souls. To that end we can have rational discussions.) In the end, whether you're a Marine, or an Atheist, or a Liberal, or just a patriotic Englishman, we all have some dogma which helps guide our lives. And that dogma is the target of any moral threat.

It is interesting to note that the Arab Spring didn't come into full swing until after we started using corn for fuel, which pushed the price of food higher worldwide. It doesn't take much: just the threat of hunger, or sudden increase in cost. After that, it is a gutteral response to question one's leaders. At that point, there are always malcontents willing to direct the revolutionary impulse.

reply to post by herrw


Alright, let's agree to disagree on that one. I fail to see how the threat of securing basic physiological needs is not on the first rung. All good.

Your premise is that we will have a food insecurity, because the financial systems will approach infinity, so to speak. That just means a reset is needed. It means we have bank holidays, martial law, and a debt jubilee. The end result is a more just, objective means of measuring humanities energy resources; whether that be in goods, or services. It means we go entirely digital.

If you honestly think these contingencies haven't been thought out far in advance, I think you're a bit naive.

It's simply in NOBODIES best interest to have any kind of local or regional wars spill out into a global war. The very fact that we have the ability to transfer information around the globe in milliseconds means a game changer has been introduced since the last cycle. It means there's that much more awareness, to prepare and contain these sparks before they become forest fires. Just think it through. The worst is already passing.

Originally posted by moniesisfun
reply to post by herrw

 

Alright, let's agree to disagree on that one. I fail to see how the threat of securing basic physiological needs is not on the first rung. All good.

Your premise is that we will have a food insecurity, because the financial systems will approach infinity, so to speak. That just means a reset is needed. It means we have bank holidays, martial law, and a debt jubilee. The end result is a more just, objective means of measuring humanities energy resources; whether that be in goods, or services. It means we go entirely digital.

If you honestly think these contingencies haven't been thought out far in advance, I think you're a bit naive.

It's simply in NOBODIES best interest to have any kind of local or regional wars spill out into a global war. The very fact that we have the ability to transfer information around the globe in milliseconds means a game changer has been introduced since the last cycle. It means there's that much more awareness, to prepare and contain these sparks before they become forest fires. Just think it through. The worst is already passing.

edit on 19-10-2012 by moniesisfun because: (no reason given)

In a manner of speaking, I would say that it has been thought out in advance, just not in a manner you would typify as 'thought'.

You're right. To any sane, life-loving person it would make no sense whatsoever. However, if I step away from any moral limitations which I have been taught and look at the system coldly and logically, I can see how groups of people rarely do what is in the best interest of the individual. So what would be the result of a world conflagration?

There would be a great deal of death, first off. The level of killing would probably be to the point that it would generate some level of change in the popular psyche, much as WWI and WWII did. Afterward, any surviving national leadership would be forced to admit that the UN didn't have enough teeth to stop WWIII from happening. What would happen then? Since the tendency towards centralization of power follows any major war, I would expect a greater centralization to occur... this time, with teeth.

If the dollar collapses, it all collapses. Oil is still pegged to the dollar, even if other countries have started trading in their own currencies. The petro-dollar is still the standard. But let's pretend that it isn't, for a moment. No nation in Western Society exists in a vacuum. Each nation is bound to every other nation through a web of mutual debt. That includes China and North Korea, as well. If the dollar were to suddenly collapse (and it has to) that would invalidate the debt of all of the countries which invested in treasury bonds. Remember what happened when the US Housing market collapsed? That's nothing compared to what will happen when the banks let go of the money they've been holding. It's not as simple as declaring a jubilee. And national leadership just isn't that smart to begin with.

Originally posted by herrw

In a manner of speaking, I would say that it has been thought out in advance, just not in a manner you would typify as 'thought'.

I'm listening.

You're right. To any sane, life-loving person it would make no sense whatsoever. However, if I step away from any moral limitations which I have been taught and look at the system coldly and logically, I can see how groups of people rarely do what is in the best interest of the individual. So what would be the result of a world conflagration?

No, no. Screw morality. I said it was in nobodies best interest. That is the truth. The elite no longer think in terms of war (for the most part) to secure their agenda. Everything is far more abstract these days.

There would be a great deal of death, first off. The level of killing would probably be to the point that it would generate some level of change in the popular psyche, much as WWI and WWII did. Afterward, any surviving national leadership would be forced to admit that the UN didn't have enough teeth to stop WWIII from happening. What would happen then? Since the tendency towards centralization of power follows any major war, I would expect a greater centralization to occur... this time, with teeth.

Yea, not gonna happen. Not because they are good people who want to do what's best for the group, but because we've reached the point where what's best for the individual is what's best for the group. We're all too damned interconnected, and it's quite obvious. Cooperation is the new fight.

If the dollar collapses, it all collapses. Oil is still pegged to the dollar, even if other countries have started trading in their own currencies. The petro-dollar is still the standard. But let's pretend that it isn't, for a moment. No nation in Western Society exists in a vacuum. Each nation is bound to every other nation through a web of mutual debt. That includes China and North Korea, as well. If the dollar were to suddenly collapse (and it has to) that would invalidate the debt of all of the countries which invested in treasury bonds. Remember what happened when the US Housing market collapsed? That's nothing compared to what will happen when the banks let go of the money they've been holding. It's not as simple as declaring a jubilee. And national leadership just isn't that smart to begin with.

Eh, we're going to simply have to wait and see. I think you're off the mark. The national leadership is not what is on C-SPAN. It's all show for the time being. Once the dollar collapses, martial law will be declared, and policies for continuance of government will be put in place. It's all in public view for anyone who cares to check.

It will be but a few days for the new system to be up and running. In the meantime the military, along with fema in conjunction with fusion centered local and state authorities, will be able to hand out basic necessities, including food, water, etc...again, the policies are already in place to take over industry temporarily once this happens. Again, give the dog a bone. The people will demand a new order, and it will of course have to be better than the old system, else heads will roll.

Very interesting discussion.
Will participate at some point.
Just posting this for now to make it easier for me to follow.

S&F

reply to post by herrw


That's a pretty good summation of what's to come but you're wrong about the religious conflicts. As long as someone's god(s) says they have the right to take someone elses crap, those conflicts will go on as long as there are recources to fight over.

reply to post by herrw

The cash drops into the economy like an atomic bomb, destroying everything around it. With so much cash in circulation, the price of everything is going to skyrocket.

A close facsimile would be to give everyone in a small town a million dollars. Overnight the price of a loaf of bread or a gallon of gas goes up to... a million dollars.

That "bluff" they keep telling us about? Its very high.

I received a phone call on my smart-phone today. I am in Canada. The number was- v01914290000047. Being the conspiracy theorist that I am, I thought it weird and decided to answer. I was greeted by a female voice that addressed me by name and then informed me that I might be eligible to receive 0% interest on any credit card debt. This was a result of new government legislation. I was then prompted to press 1 to hear more, or 2 to opt out. I hung up. The paranoid in me instantly thought that this was an attempt to codify, enumerate, gauge levels of acceptance of government support and assistance. Me being me I chose not to choose. Stubborn I am. Anyone else in the Dominion of Canada know anything of this?

Originally posted by theclutch
Great first thread!

I am a believer in your hunger theory! People are just not motivated enough to change how things are, unless they are immediately threatened with hunger. As a small example; I was buying 1.5kg peanut butter for $5.00 a tub back in February 2012. Now that same Tub is going for $12.99 and just does not go on sale any more. I often wonder when the tipping point for people is going to be....as it is a staple food for the poor.

As for your Moral theory; I just do not see it as such a factor anymore in the traditional sense. That being, a religious moral offense of some form. There are just to many people, not really believing enough in anything anymore, for them to become outraged. Atheism, and spirituality are becoming the dominant "religions" so to speak. Sure there is a lot of outrage over cultural differences, but it just does not have the weight it used to. The internet has made people too indifferent to issues other than sending mass e-mails, or signing online petitions. My point is that for whatever issue it is...most are not going to leave the house to do anything about it.

My vote is that the Hunger scare from this years heat wave, is the tipping point that has not been entirely felt yet. Next years heat wave, or other food disaster should put the nail in the coffin.

Looking forward to your input!

My wife and I also noticed the price of peanut butter has skyrocketed. Meat prices are increasing too.

It seems to me like something might be missing from your equation Herr. I'm not sure so don't think I'm attacking you I'm just getting an odd sense that the human drive to survive as a species is left out. The way you describe things it's almost like you predict all of human society coming to a screeching halt within the time span of one week to one month and then not starting again until we have crashed hard into the rock at the bottom. I fully realize that humans are animals and when faced with threats we respond as animals would, caring for our own survival first and foremost but this self-preservation always requires group preservation as well whether we like it or not.

I would think a sort of straight driver is carrying the human species along like a jet engine through the seas of time and that it cannot just be switched off seemingly in an instant. I feel like we have built into our society various "glider wings" so to speak to keep us going if the "jet engine" begins to fail. I see us falling slowly down, filled with fear, and many dying on the descent but I can't see humanity as a whole plummeting like a rock dropped off the top of a building.

We will find leaders to organize us, we will form new communities and work together to maintain whatever degree of human dignity we can manage. There will be savages and there will be savage deaths, but that will be only the symptoms of the Jet Engine of humanity running low on power enough to carry all of us. Many will have to jump ship (die) for us to continue but we will continue and we'll be better for it.

I feel that you have overlooked one critical part to your equation.

Our governments. (the one's with power) will to keep the same system(corporate America) in place and functioning. This is one aspect that I feel the doom and gloomers, such as yourself, are seriously overlooking.

This is not the 40's and the world in which we live in cannot even be compared to Ww2. Never has a country been so powerful and in control of every aspect of information the way the current US is. NAZI Germany does not even compare.

All this government needs is to instill fear into the populace. Remember the terrorist threats? People are affraid and the majority do not want to fight. Control the majority and you control a nation.

I honestly believe that TPTB will not let go of the power.

Change will come but not as most around here speak of.
A peaceful people is affraid of violence. Put a scapegoat infront of everyone and give them a reason to keep it the same politics as usual.

I believe this because we have the most powerful propaganda machine/s of all time. The television and the internet.

Control peoples emotions and you control the"game".

Just my two cents, if it is even worth that.

reply to post by liejunkie01


But the question is can they keep paying their enforcers (the military)? See the government can't hold itself in place if it has no one to enforce its power. The government is sort of an imaginary thing like the dollar that we give our power to because it makes life work better for all of us in a structured society, but as soon as that structure breaks then people keep their power to themselves rather than give it away to something they see as unable to provide them with the security it once did.

reply to post by Socrato


All it takes is one person to run a computer.

With our computerized weaponry these days we honestly do not even need "boots on the ground".

There will always be the one's that think that they are doing the right thing for this country.

We have computers now, one drone with one missile on one mission can do some serious damage to the human Psyche.

Hollywood wants us to believe that good will prevail. It will not be like Hollywood.

BAH! LET THEM EAT CAKE!

It's been any day now since 1999. If it doesn't happen by December 21st I will be liberated from visiting these ridiculous websites.

great read. you sure got my old heart pumping at double time reading this.

Some how I am betting "Willard The Rat" Romney will make it in here as the great white hope...to save the day!

Actually I think a change would do us all good! Even if things were set back 100 years people will survive and thrive and at least some of us wont have to worry about this!