Cnn/Orc Poll: Unskewed...Romney Up 8

Cnn/Orc latest polls unskewed would put romney up by 8%. From their latest polls, Independents are way undersampled, while Democrats are oversampled. And of course, Republicans are undersampled.

Survey includes a total of 822 registered voters and breaks down as follows:
441 registered Democrats
397 registered Republicans
37 Independents

Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll By Dean Chambers
www.examiner.com...

Ah, the Examiner is at it again!

I suggest you study the Actual Poll Data (if you're into polls, that is...)

What purpose do this preliminary polls actually serve besides creating controversy and potentially leading to confusion when it comes to the actual vote?

As stated above the original poll data is righ here:

441 registered Democrats
397 registered Republicans
37 Independents

822 Total

Party affiliation poll from Gallup:

31% Democrat
28% Republican
41% Independent

If we extrapolate that data from Gallup we should get the following for the CNN/ORC poll:

255 registered Democrats
230 registered Republicans
337 Independents

Party Affiliation from Gallup:
www.gallup.com...

Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
Ah, the Examiner is at it again!

I suggest you study the Actual Poll Data (if you're into polls, that is...)

edit on 9/11/2012 by Benevolent Heretic because: (no reason given)

I can only link to the actual poll data. I can't make you read it. Continue to believe the propaganda put out by the Examiner. Because Lord knows, they get it right every time! (That last part was sarcasm)

Have a good day.

All I did was use the raw data from CNN/ORC and the most latest Party Affiliations poll from Gallup. The examiner has nothing to do with my analysis here. Are you actually looking at my numbers data?

reply to post by Benevolent Heretic

Why pay attention to any poll, until about a week before the election. Then the game is up and to save face, the real numbers come out.

Just avoid the Left Leaning Media polls and any other for that matter.

The only thing that really counts is the actually election. Just look at the history of polling in the last 20 years.
You will cleanly see they are way wrong more than they are right.

And, you can see how the polls almost always support.... the dumbocrate.

Jesus Christ, OP.

You have no sense of interpreting polling data. Oh, my god. Public Administration and Polling undergrad classes were unbearably boring, but I'm glad I have a grasp on these concepts not to be posting dribble like this on ATS.

Look towards aggregates, man, and stop posting until you do.

reply to post by RELDDIR


Perhaps a "teaser" from the actual data:

Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans conducted by telephone
by ORC International on September 7-9, 2012.

NOT 822, as your "source" claims. Just GO TO THE POLL DATA for a few seconds and you'll see where the Examiner got their numbers.

I'm not going to beg you to educate yourself. Bye.

With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the Rasmussen numbers, this poll's data would indicate a Romney lead over Obama of 53 percent to 45 percent.

Are you kidding me? They adjusted the poll results using numbers from another poll.

I can see adjusting results based on percentage of registered voters in each party or some other real demographic data, but not off another random poll.

If I may suggest this piece:

The Parade of Bad Polls Continues
www.powerlineblog.com...

So, what do you think now?

Your post is clueless. I AM using aggregates. My extrapolated number totals 822, just like the original numbers.

Never knew they had polling undergrad classes. Where I'm from, we have Probability and Statistics, a calculus course using derivatives to forecast outcomes based on data.

Originally posted by TheOneElectric
Jesus Christ, OP.

You have no sense of interpreting polling data. Oh, my god. Public Administration and Polling undergrad classes were unbearably boring, but I'm glad I have a grasp on these concepts not to be posting dribble like this on ATS.

Look towards aggregates, man, and stop posting until you do.

reply to post by RELDDIR

Cnn/Orc latest polls unskewed would put romney up by 8%.

Uh huh. Good luck with that. The polling is accurate and borne out by other polls, including even right-leaning Rasmussen. The sampling reflects reality, which is that registered Dems outnumber registered Republicans (a trend shows Repubs losing ground in registered voters). Gee, I wonder why that is? Insanity and cynical outright obstruction, mixed with the inability to tell the truth tends to turn people off.

Originally posted by RELDDIR
Cnn/Orc latest polls unskewed would put romney up by 8%. From their latest polls, Independents are way undersampled, while Democrats are oversampled. And of course, Republicans are undersampled.

Survey includes a total of 822 registered voters and breaks down as follows:
441 registered Democrats
397 registered Republicans
37 Independents

Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll By Dean Chambers
www.examiner.com...

Just for fun......someone somewhere should do an honest poll.

45% Republicans

45% Democrats

10% Independents

and just see what happens.

What's the worst that could happen?

-------------
BTW, the only poll that counts is the one taken on November 6, 2012.

All of the polling organizations will go into full damage control mode 5 days before the election.

1 word - credibility

That is an incredibly small sample to extrapolate from.
Or even call a poll survey on the Presidential election.

How many people live on one city block in the average suburban area?
How many city blocks is 822 or even 1,022 people?

Originally posted by RELDDIR
As stated above the original poll data is righ here:

441 registered Democrats
397 registered Republicans
37 Independents

822 Total

Please....BH directed you to the actual poll twice...Not 822...but 1,022...you excluded Likely Voters...

Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans conducted by telephone
by ORC International on September 7-9, 2012. The margin of
sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or
minus 3 percentage points.

The sample also includes 875 interviews among registered voters
(plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 709 interviews among
likely voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points).

READ THE WHOLE OP.

Originally posted by Indigo5

Originally posted by RELDDIR
As stated above the original poll data is righ here:

441 registered Democrats
397 registered Republicans
37 Independents

822 Total

Please....BH directed you to the actual poll twice...Not 822...but 1,022...you excluded Likely Voters...

Interviews with 1,022 adult Americans conducted by telephone
by ORC International on September 7-9, 2012. The margin of
sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or
minus 3 percentage points.

The sample also includes 875 interviews among registered voters
(plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) and 709 interviews among
likely voters (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points).

Originally posted by anon72
If I may suggest this piece:

The Parade of Bad Polls Continues
www.powerlineblog.com...

So, what do you think now?

I think that website is an awesome example of right wing nuts capacity to ignore reality.

Romney could get caught on stage french kissing a man and the far right would claim it was just an unusual CPR technique and that Romney saved his life.

All politics aside, he is going down in flames and rightly so. If he didn't have the money to overpay his advisors, we would have seen an exodus by now.

He is taking desperate chances...endorsing Obamacare...slamming the debt deal that his VP championed and voted for...refusing to give any details about policy...mostly out of fear and to allow himself as much room as possible to play to his only strength which is Flip-Flop champion of the world.

One more time, did you fail to read EVERYTHING from the OP?

Originally posted by Indigo5

Originally posted by anon72
If I may suggest this piece:

The Parade of Bad Polls Continues
www.powerlineblog.com...

So, what do you think now?

I think that website is an awesome example of right wing nuts capacity to ignore reality.

Romney could get caught on stage french kissing a man and the far right would claim it was just an unusual CPR technique and that Romney saved his life.

All politics aside, he is going down in flames and rightly so. If he didn't have the money to overpay his advisors, we would have seen an exodus by now.

He is taking desperate chances...endorsing Obamacare...slamming the debt deal that his VP championed and voted for...refusing to give any details about policy...mostly out of fear and to allow himself as much room as possible to play to his only strength which is Flip-Flop champion of the world.

Originally posted by RELDDIR
READ THE WHOLE OP.

Oh Please...I did! What is hillarious is this bit from your OP article...

Unskewing this data to make up for the likely 25 percent under-sampling of independent voters shows the results are quite different. With the weightings of independents, Democrats and Republicans conducted by the Rasmussen numbers, this poll's data would indicate a Romney lead over Obama of 53 percent to 45 percent.

Hmm...Okay...Then the farthest right leaning pollster in the business, one which has been hammered for using insanely GOP bias weightings...is the new standard? OK..let's check out Rasmussen's latest polls!

TUESDAY, Sept. 11th
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 48, Romney 45
Obama +3

+3 for Obama??? But your article just said their poll would show +8 for Romney!

What does that tell you when the most Romney friendly poll...AND THE ONE YOUR ARTICLE LOOKED TO USE TO MAKE IT'S "reality is not reality" argument...shows Obama ahead?

When RASMUSSEN starts showing Obama with significant lead then you know the Romney camp is in trouble.

Or how about EVERY other poll???
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Why do I always imagine folks get a little twing of pain in their frontal lobe when they work this hard to deny reality.