When will America be #2?

Everyone agrees that the superpower of the world today is the United States of America. Though we haven't been the most powerful country in the world for very long, no country has ever been as powerful as we are.

Many civilizations have been the in the seat that we are in now. Rome, Britian, and Russia have been superpowers, but eventually they lost power and gave up their status as a superpower.

When and how do you think America will lose it's status as a superpower?

Who do you think will be the next superpower in the world?

The US is really better described as a Megapower now rather then a Superpower.

As for the next Superpower I would say China would be the safe bet. I also wouldnt count out Russia to make a come back to Superpower status some time in the future.

Originally posted by ShadowXIX
The US is really better described as a Megapower now rather then a Superpower.

As for the next Superpower I would say China would be the safe bet. I also wouldnt count out Russia to make a come back to Superpower status some time in the future.

You're right about the megapower term. I never really knew that the term existed until I read your post.

I would say China would be a safe bet also. I wouldn't rule out places that have nuclear capability and growing economies, like India.

I've been yelling China for 15 years now. They had a $1 trillion military modernization after the Reagan years. That would be 10X what the U.S. put in just in labor costs, although we put in a trillion in ours, labor costs ate up a good chunk of it.

As for a Superpower, the EU is becoming more powerful than I'd like. With talk about a unified military and the common currency already in place, Europe may become an eventual threat to the U.S. and the U.K.

I miss the Deutsch Mark though.

Is a megapower more powerful or less powerful than a superpower?


Anyways, I think the U.S. will continue to be the "one true power" in the world for some time. Why? Simply because the U.S. is caught up in every major affair in the world. And, the U.S. dollar bill is the currency upon which every other currency is judged. If the U.S. were to fall, I believe that the world would be in another time of "dark ages".

If the U.S. does submit to another country as #2, it won't come peacefully. It'll be a war.

-wD

I feel the same as many in this thread - China.
China has the economy, it has the manpower and is building the military, and it is very, very patient. In addition to this, China sees America as the military threat and the economic competitor to beat. If any power could have the stamina and drive to put us at #2, I think China is the one, and I think China has the patience and cunning to do it without war.

I prefer the term "Hyperpower"

The best bet is the EU. Europe is modern and technologically advanced. China has a LOT of potential, but the government is holding it back. Also, China has many more times the domestic problems that the US or Europe does because of that HUGE population.

Russia could make a comeback, but they won't be as powerfull as the USSR was. About half the population and less land.

I don't expect the US to loose it's advantage anytime soon, and if it looks like it might, don't shoked if the US looks to make it's own union with other nations, even if it's only an economic one.

I think in about 10-30 years, we will see a more multipolar world, hyperpowers like EU and US, and several major powers China, Japan, Russia, India, regional powers like Brazil, South Africa, etc.

Whether EU can develop millitary force independent of US will determine whether it will be on par with US. China is developing fast, and will able to defend the interests around China like Taiwan, etc. Without solving Taiwan problem, China will continue to be a regional power in East Asia.

For Japan to join the club, it has to reconcile with the Chinese people, and fully repent for their former atrocities.

Originally posted by WeBDeviL
Is a megapower more powerful or less powerful than a superpower?

-wD

Megapower is really used to described going beyond a Superpower, Hyperpower like American Mad Man said is the same thing.

Zcheng interesting choice in Japan to join the club they are a great economic nation in their own right.They dont seem to like or be liked by the nations in their area. A Union of East Asia countries China , Japan, S Korea (or even better a unified Korea) would be one heck of a world power.

You always provide a good laugh Zcheng.

But back on topic, I dont think the US will ever become a #2 status. You know what they say, Location, Location, Location. Our local is the best thing weve got, were surrounded by only 2 countries, and for everybody in the middle east, thats only a dream. Plus we have had the best military for awhile now, and I dont see any other country even coming close.

Yeah, China is growing more powerfull, But there population is rediculous, The world population is 6.1 Billion, and the United States population is 300 million, and China's is 1.3 billion, an the US is bigger then China. So I think to many people is going to hurt them, Especially for there army, I dont care how big they say it is, its the logistics of it all that counts. and they cant possibly expect to be able to pay for a million man army.

The US will be going toward Unmanned wars, Not just in the air either, On the future news we will be hearing about horrific events like 6 robots died today in a explosion that cost the US hundreds of thousands of dollars.

I thought China would be slowing down, but actually their annual economic growth has picked up again and is forecast for around 5% for 2023 and similar for 2024. If this rate continues and the US continues to slow down, then by the 2030s, I would say it is possible China could be #1 and the US #2, but keep an eye on India, because they are growing quite fast now, too.

a reply to: Slayer

China. 3 years ago.

What China is doing now seeks to do exactly that.
And their PPP is a few trillion greater than ours. Our GDP is better, but not our purchasing power parity. (PPP)

They have a hive mind to form an Axis with the least free countries on earth (with money) and strangle every last bit of influence out of our dollar.

As of now, there is more purchasing power in BRICS (China, Russia, India, South Africa) than the G7.

The only thing we have in our favor (US specifically) is defense spending and established authority. For now.

Waiting for China to become a problem to deal with them is disadvantageous. Do it now. Over Taiwan. And on with the proxy skirmishes of Cold War II.

From my position i feel China is so good (at leading our petty squabbles through social media) they have most of the world blaming their own country for a virus they clearly released to take over the world and surge their own economy. In 2020 their PPP surged to #1 during the height of covid.

Keep calling out their state owned social media platform. And treat anyone with reverence for the CCP like a soviet sympathizer at the height of McCarthyism.

I swear China is playing the stinking world like a harp from hell and Bruce Wayne is too preoccupied donating to progressive causes through his charitable foundation to notice.

a reply to: ShadowXIX

Well the children of the wealthy and the elite are learning Chinese. I have seen no reports of them learning Russian.

If that means anything.

a reply to: Degradation33

The US still has the superior currency for now...

Are we talking militarily or economically?
Militarily the US is 3 steps ahead of anyone. China and Russia know this. Neither wishes to go head-to-head toe to toe against the US.
Economically China can sell more t-shirts and garbage tools.

The only problem The US has with its Military is a lack of discipline within its main troops and a serious lack of coordination in command. Too much gung ho. Some commanders believe in fire powering out of a situation.

Its special forces guys can hold their own. They have been taught well.

originally posted by: ShadowXIX
The US is really better described as a Megapower now rather then a Superpower.

As for the next Superpower I would say China would be the safe bet. I also wouldnt count out Russia to make a come back to Superpower status some time in the future.

We will see with China. Europe tried by forming EU, but that really didn't do it. China has some HUGE problems coming in the next 10 years that makes anything bad in America look like nothing at all, so let's see where they are around 2030, and I'll bet they are worst off by far than today and America is even farther split off as the one mega power in the world.

originally posted by: Xtrozero

originally posted by: ShadowXIX
The US is really better described as a Megapower now rather then a Superpower.

As for the next Superpower I would say China would be the safe bet. I also wouldnt count out Russia to make a come back to Superpower status some time in the future.

We will see with China. Europe tried by forming EU, but that really didn't do it. China has some HUGE problems coming in the next 10 years that makes anything bad in America look like nothing at all, so let's see where they are around 2030, and I'll bet they are worst off by far than today and America is even farther split off as the one mega power in the world.

Don't forget India. They will be close to being 3rd best economy within the next decade. I would not be surprised if they overtake China.

It won't take much more than the world calling in the debt of the US. Our power is our status as reserve currency. There are already nations beginning to use the Yuan as a reserve currency also. This is a huge indicator of where things are headed.

Our financial system in its present form is entirely untenable. Sorry, but you simply can not solve a massive credit crisis with more credit. It didn't work in the 1930's and its not going to work now. We have been throwing band aids at a gushing wound for decades and its not working any more. Our economy is basically one giant ponzi scheme and simply cannot survive indefinitely. As a distinguished economist and mentor once said, "Right now we have stepped off the cliff and are caught in this sort of "Wile E. Coyote" moment where we are just hanging there waiting for gravity to notice us." We have far more debt than we can ever hope to pay. Pumping more and more currency in to the market will only work for so long. The true value of the currency is nothing more than the idea that it will continue to be in demand in the future. Without that expectation it is worthless.

We are headed for some very dark times financially. It wouldn't be unreasonable at this point in time to believe another 1920's/1930s style depression is on the horizon. In today's world, that would be even more catastrophic than it was the first time around.

In the stock market crash of 1929 the stock market lost 25% of its value in two days. Almost a month later it had lost 50% of its value. By 1932 it had lost 89% of its value. It didn't fully recover to pre-crash heights until 1954, 22 years later. The market was under 400 when the crash began.

Think about all that financial disruption and chaos, and only 10% of the people in the US owned stocks at the time. At the height of the depression 35 million Americans out of 121 million people, 30% of the country, lived in a family where no one had a job. During that decade the wages of people who did work dropped 40%.

Today 56% of the people in the US own stocks. Imagine the devastation of a similar crash if 30% of this nation, today roughly 110 million people, lived in a family where no one had a job. Basic needs, food, water, shelter, are going to be real life concerns on a daily basis for well over 100 million people. There are no food stamps for a problem that big. And what nations will come rushing to our aid?

a reply to: Slayer

" When and how do you think America will lose it's status as a superpower? "

Just Like Ancient Rome . Through Unchecked Immigration caused by Low Fertility Rates among Native Romans , and an Overly Expansionist Mindset by it's Leadership . Time ? TBA ......

originally posted by: Logicon

Don't forget India. They will be close to being 3rd best economy within the next decade. I would not be surprised if they overtake China.

I agree with India, but the one thing they don't have that China has/had is 30 years of trillion of American dollars in businesses going there. That alone took 800 million extreme poor Chinese into the middle class.