Drake equation: How many alien civilizations exist?

Originally posted by cripmeister
Every time I see someone mention the Fermi Paradox this little gem comes to mind. Serious questions asked in an off humorous kind of way

Perhaps Fermi was an alien. It's really hard to get past the sardonic and dismissive tone of Hodgman's "comedy" - everytime he mentions anything that has to do with aliens its a joke - "uh.. if you believe in that sorta thing. (pauses for chuckles from the audience.) I think this guy is clever but in the end there only stiff reasoning with people like this and it's easy for the sheep to digest and be broken down and de-mystified to the point of absolute boredom.

Originally posted by kronos11

You're looking at it the wrong way, they are not hiding at all. They don't want to interfere except when absolutely necessary (nuclear disarmament by UFO has been documented several times) ...

Yet, from those early days of nuclear testing and development, the technology has spread where not only the U.S. and Russia have nukes in a somewhat contained proliferation scenario, but, it's spread to:
China, France, United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Turkey, and then also nations which formerly held nuclear weapons: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, South Africa.
Nuclear States

This, of course, doesn't include the more extensive list of nations which have nuclear power, which with some modification in some cases could very well lead to weapons grade material and development of national nuclear armament.
This is called Nuclear Latency where Nuclear latency is the condition of a country possessing the technology to quickly build nuclear weapons, without having actually yet done so. Because such latent capability is not proscribed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, this is sometimes called the "Japan Option" (as a work-around to the treaty), as Japan is a clear case of a country with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly.

Thus, regardless this supposed intervention, these supposed aliens have done a pretty poor job at what many claim they've had a hand or tentacle in trying to prevent.
They are thus demonstrated ineffective.
Further, were such an issue of any importance, couldn't such a concern have been mitigated by dropping a gift from the 'gods' of a free energy solution of such design that it could not be weaponized?
A free energy solution wouldn't necessarily need be dropped from the sky, but, inspired through magical alien telepathy to several renown respected scientists worldwide such that the technology is "discovered" simultaneously across the globe.

Alas, we see no such thing.
These supposed aliens according to any supposed reason or logical excuse would seem not to subscribe to any logical process, and if real are essentially hanging out for voyeurism which makes them essentially useless.

Finally, any benevolent alien concerned about our war-like development could simply fabricate a disposable false robot 'enemy' to swoop in destroying infrastructure, weapons production, and other areas of concern around the globe where then when the peoples of Earth are helpless, the aliens could then ride in on white horses to save the day from the evil robot threat they've been chasing across the galaxy or some other fine charade.

There'd be ticker tape parades welcoming the saviors, speeches, parties, fanfare and the whole bit.

Alas, no.

Thus, I posit, there are no secret aliens, no matter how cool it might be.
Invisible bike is still more believable.

Talking of cats, how many people, in a civilisation that has had them living with us for 1000s of years actually understand what a cat is doing when it brings alive animal in drops it at your feet then plays with it? People still look totally shocked when you explain to them. "The cat sees you as another cat, it's never seen you hunt, it's trying to teach you".

Given that level of well, let's be honest, ignorance, just how do you expect us to even know we're being contacted and by what means?

Let's postulate theirs a civilisation only 20 light years from us that are say, 400 years in front of us tech wise and they ceased using radio/TV as a communication 200 years ago, as "inefficient", we probably did receive loads of their transmission only at the time we, with our present tech that, could read them with, didn't have the equipment to.

So Fermi's paradox is actually based on very shaky foundations and is, let's be honest, grade school science given our current understanding of Universe just a couple of decades later. It's just a tad amusing that, the very same people who poo poo the chances of alien life looking like us then wheel out the Fermi paradox which is wholly based on extrapolating, how we as humans act, to the rest of the universe.

However that is inherent of the "Skeptics paradox" that goes... "There is no evidence to say non human intelligence exist or have contacted us however, if they had, we, meaning we the rational skeptics, would already understand how they did it and it would conform wholly to our human expectations".

It does make me chuckle... "Oh, they are a rocket scientist they would understand".... really now? I doubt they'd actually understand the propulsion behind a genuine starship any more than a medieval wainwright would understand how to service the computer controlled engine of a modern car.

Originally posted by Druscilla
reply to post by CaptainBeno

 

Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

This is why:

Drake's equation...bad math. There are too many undefinable variables for it to have any validity. It's a fun thing, but less useful than a slinky.

reply to post by cripmeister


Really funny stuff. Thanks for posting it.

Do the math...We are not alone....

-SAP-

It’s not enough to build an equation, but we know of 49 sunlike stars besides our own Sun within 51 light-years of Earth. And I would think that people who assume there are no UFOs visiting Earth and that all reports are rooted in psychopathy or misperception probably would have no problem with the notion that among those 49 solar analogs there might well be astronomers that are aware of Earth and consider it an excellent candidate for supporting life.

en.wikipedia.org...

We are not alone is possible, very possible, but just because you do the math does not mean you have to keep that number. Not every habitable zone has life, just because it is habitable (like Gliese system), of course hostile environments where life may develop as well, could make up for the habitable planets without life but still the numbers would be less. Just substract or divide the whole thing by 100 times or so until you get a possibility of 100-1000.

Originally posted by CaptainBeno
Until ground-based observations, space telescopes and planet-roving robots uncover any tell-tale signs of life, what better way to speculate on how many intelligent alien civilizations may exist than to explore the universe with our interactive version of the equation.

Carl Sagan looked at the Drake equation as this video shows:


He said perhaps most stars have planetary systems so he wouldn't be surprised by modern findings, but he only used 1/4 for the fraction of planets with planetary systems. He calculated just 10 intelligent civilizations in the Milky Way (and presumably about 10 per other galaxies also), then changed the last variable and came up with a huge number (millions).

The other galaxies are too far to have much relevance regarding aliens, so what I thought was interesting about his calculation of 10 was that would still be consistent with the Fermi Paradox, because 10 civilizations spread throughout the Milky way could still be far enough apart where they might still not have had enough time to reach or detect each other.

If on the other hand you go with Sagan's more optimistic number, the Fermi Paradox would truly be a paradox, as it would be with most figures in-between. So, maybe his 10 is a good estimate? Who knows, but we do know more today than we did then so it bears re-visiting.

Originally posted by FireMoon
Talking of cats, how many people, in a civilisation that has had them living with us for 1000s of years actually understand what a cat is doing when it brings alive animal in drops it at your feet then plays with it? People still look totally shocked when you explain to them. "The cat sees you as another cat, it's never seen you hunt, it's trying to teach you".

That really happens? By the time I get the animal, it's dead, and I was told the cat was giving me a gift. I guess that cat didn't know teaching someone to fish was better than giving them a fish, metaphorically speaking?

Originally posted by Druscilla
reply to post by CaptainBeno

 

Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

maybe it would be easier if you thought of it in the small scale.
imagine America is the universe
your house is our solar system
and you represent humanity

as far as space exploration goes, you've barely made it out of bed, never mind out the front door.
how can we expect to have found alien life when we have searched less than 0.00001% of the places it might be.

reply to post by Imtor


'habitable zone' is so vague. the habitable zone is defined as an area around a star that is just the right distance to sustain the existence of liquid water, but like you said, even inside the habitable zone you still need the right conditions IE the right atmosphere, the presence of water etc etc.

but also there are other place liquid water can exist, for example you can extend what we think of as the habitable zone because water can exist in liquid form at different temperatures depending on the atmospheric pressure.

liquid water does not require energy from a star to exist, it simple needs energy. this energy could come from the tidal friction that occurs when two bodies orbit each other (a planet and its moon/s)
also, some planets emit radiation, both of these things would create smaller habitable zones around some planets within solar systems.

reply to post by CaptainBeno

www.sci-news.com...

if it happened here then it most likely happened on some other earthlike planet in the distant past, so why is it so unreasonable to think life formed somewhere else and even earlier? we've more than likely been seeded here. We talk about terraforming other planets with our rinkydink technology, I don't get why that's so impossible to think others would do the same.

And for those who think we are in some hard to find corner of nowhere, consider them being able to link themselves to us in a non-locally telepathic way. They just link up to our frequency and their crafts bring them here. Why are people so stubborn on this? I mean really, grow up already everybody

Originally posted by CaptainBeno
Are we alone? It is a question that has occupied mankind for centuries.

And its been answered for millennia. It goes something like:

"Dear humans. Since you are too frigging dumb to understand that the many statues, cave paintings and giant skulls in your history that looks like aliens actually ARE aliens, we built a couple of giant pyramids in your deserts since we were confident that it would end the silly debate about weather or not we exist.

We were wrong.

So we started flying around your sun and in your skies, trying to make it super obvious we are here and have always been here. Surely you humans would now get the message?

We were wrong again.

Since then we have just stopped trying. There is a limit to our patience. We wish you humans a happy, ignorant existence until your planet gets wiped out by Nibiru and the universe can create something that actually knows how to listen and understand their neighbours.

Have a good day."

Originally posted by PrimitiveWorld

Originally posted by CaptainBeno
Are we alone? It is a question that has occupied mankind for centuries.

And its been answered for millennia. It goes something like:

"Dear humans..."

So the aliens aren't even advanced enough to type their own message?

It's kind of like the preacher telling me what God said. If God's got something to say he shouldn't need the preacher to say it, just as the aliens shouldn't need you to type up and send their message for them. If they are capable of interstellar travel, they should have a better way of getting a message to us than that.

Originally posted by rigel4

Originally posted by kronos11

Originally posted by Druscilla

Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

Because humans are by and large feeble minded and would not be able to handle such a revelation. Instead of evolving in the past 500 years we've astonishingly went the opposite way. Seeing them is, for the time being, only for the select few who have been chosen.

I totally have never understood this concept of "Humans being feeble minded", how so?

Most people are far more capable than you think... People could handle the truth easily.

I am reminded of the program 'war of the worlds' that aired in 1939 (?) in America, the panic was widespread, was it not?

reply to post by CaptainBeno


If you still think that we are alone, then, well... Who cares? I know I don't anymore!

Originally posted by SloAnPainful
Do the math...We are not alone....

Oh, I put a zero in just one of the variables. Turns out we are alone. Oops.

Originally posted by HEYJOSE
If you still think that we are alone, then, well...your and idiot.

"Your and idiot," huh?
Sorry, I just have to laugh.

Originally posted by DaveNorris
how can we expect to have found alien life when we have searched less than 0.00001% of the places it might be.

Well, statistically speaking, there's something called a "sample" which could be useful here. We don't need to search everywhere, we just need to search in enough places so that it represents a typical slice of the universe. So far, we haven't searched a whole lot of the universe, but we've searched a bit of it in different ways including listening to radio noise, and the answer so far is the same. There's nobody else around but us. Now, maybe they exist on some hypothetical plane of existence we can't comprehend, but we don't really care about those things. We're looking for intelligent creatures that live in the same kind of reality as us that we can understand.

So far, none. Oh, sure, there are millions of hypothetical aliens out there, and maybe a few statistically probable aliens out there. But they kind of have the same thing in common -- they aren't real. the only way for us to know for sure that there is an alien out there is to find one. Yes or no. Anything else is just wishful thinking.