Drake equation: How many alien civilizations exist?

Are we alone? It is a question that has occupied mankind for centuries.

I saw this on the Beeb today and thought I would post it up for all to interact with and enjoy, it certainly is one question I think about all the time, hey probably every night to be honest, every time I look in the sky at night. It blows my mind to smithereens to think how many "Other worlds" are out there possibly thinking the same thing when they look at our little star in their night sky. I can only imagine what kind of life they have and do they use similar products to us etc etc. My only wish before I die is to find out. Surely we can'y be unique..............can we? Enjoy!

www.bbc.com...

Today, we live in an age of exploration, where robots on Mars and planet-hunting telescopes are beginning to allow us to edge closer to an answer.

While we wait to establish contact, one technique we can use back on Earth is an equation that American astronomer Frank Drake formulated in the 1960s to calculate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations may exist in the Milky Way galaxy.

It is not a rigorous equation, offering a wide range of possible answers. Instead it is more a tool used to help understand how many worlds might be out there and how those estimates change as missions like Kepler, a telescope that is currently searching for Earth-like planets, begin to discover more about our universe.

Until ground-based observations, space telescopes and planet-roving robots uncover any tell-tale signs of life, what better way to speculate on how many intelligent alien civilizations may exist than to explore the universe with our interactive version of the equation.

www.bbc.com...

Live Long and Prosper... and "They Live".

Just not in our back yard (disclaimer).

In an infinite universe I imagine the amount of life out there to be infinite as well. Just think of how seemingly infinite amounts of life are here on earth and spread that all throughout the known and unknown universe

reply to post by CaptainBeno


Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

reply to post by Druscilla


Yep, I have thought about that as well.

Because of no "actual" alien photographs or "actual" ahem, video'd UFO encounters that we can say with 100% "That's an Alien!" we really have seen nothing have we?

Don't get me wrong, I'm a believer but the closest thing yet is NASA videos on the ISS and even those have been drawn over the coals one to many times hey?

Boooooooooooooooo!!!!!!! and WHY? (He say's with utter frustration!)

Originally posted by Druscilla

Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

Because humans are by and large feeble minded and would not be able to handle such a revelation. Instead of evolving in the past 500 years we've astonishingly went the opposite way. Seeing them is, for the time being, only for the select few who have been chosen.

even if the drake equation is wrong, the fact is there is at least 1 more civilization but probably more than we could even comprehend so we,r not alone........to think that nothing else is alive out there is frankly ridiculous if u ask me.

Originally posted by lobotomizemecapin
In an infinite universe I imagine the amount of life out there to be infinite as well. Just think of how seemingly infinite amounts of life are here on earth and spread that all throughout the known and unknown universe

Indeed.

Now, if we're talking about an infinite universe, we must also assume there to be galaxies with stars as large as our entire Milky Way. In such a case, there should be a planet capable of harboring life that can travel the universe, with each lifeform being multiple times larger than our sun. Since we haven't seen such a thing, we can consider the Drake equation bunk.

Originally posted by kronos11

Originally posted by Druscilla

Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

Because humans are by and large feeble minded and would not be able to handle such a revelation. Instead of evolving in the past 500 years we've astonishingly went the opposite way. Seeing them is, for the time being, only for the select few who have been chosen.

I totally have never understood this concept of "Humans being feeble minded", how so?

Most people are far more capable than you think... People could handle the truth easily.

Originally posted by kronos11

Because humans are by and large feeble minded and would not be able to handle such a revelation. Instead of evolving in the past 500 years we've astonishingly went the opposite way. Seeing them is, for the time being, only for the select few who have been chosen.

Oh, sure, like Steven Greer and his invisible aliens.
I see your invisible aliens and raise you Invisible Bike!


All this talk about Humanity not being ready yet where only select chosen people get imparted alien wisdom is total buffoonery.
If there's aliens, then if they were to suddenly show up, it'd be like learning to swim by getting tossed into a pool. Some would would be cool with it, while others may freak out.
Regardless of when/where this happens if it ever does, whether 1 day, or a thousand years from now, the same will apply.

Encountering anything unknown is a test of the unusual.

Originally posted by DaTroof

Originally posted by lobotomizemecapin
In an infinite universe I imagine the amount of life out there to be infinite as well. Just think of how seemingly infinite amounts of life are here on earth and spread that all throughout the known and unknown universe

Indeed.

Now, if we're talking about an infinite universe, we must also assume there to be galaxies with stars as large as our entire Milky Way. In such a case, there should be a planet capable of harboring life that can travel the universe, with each lifeform being multiple times larger than our sun. Since we haven't seen such a thing, we can consider the Drake equation bunk.

edit on 23-8-2012 by DaTroof because: (no reason given)

with stars as large as our entire Milky Way

something that big would implode due to gravity and create a black hole

reply to post by Druscilla


Just for a laugh, I see your invisible cat and raise you................

The Drake Equation is worth revisiting. It was developed during a time when we had no idea how many other stars had planets. Now we are coming to the conclusion that having planets around a star system is not only not rare, but may be commonplace. That ups the ante a bit!

Druscilla, you're a naughty girl. That cat bicycle is hilarious. I'm gonna steal it!

May I also link you to another find:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Thank you

Originally posted by Druscilla

Oh, sure, like Steven Greer and his invisible aliens.
I see your invisible aliens and raise you Invisible Bike!

All this talk about Humanity not being ready yet where only select chosen people get imparted alien wisdom is total buffoonery.
If there's aliens, then if they were to suddenly show up, it'd be like learning to swim by getting tossed into a pool. Some would would be cool with it, while others may freak out.
Regardless of when/where this happens if it ever does, whether 1 day, or a thousand years from now, the same will apply.

Hahhaa... good one! I'm totally with you, I think we need a good toss in the deep water but because of what they term "free will" we can't have it so easy.

The reality is I didn't make the rules, they did. Buffonery it may be but this is as it has been since we began here, most of what has taken place in the form of "contact" in the past 50 years has been out of a desperate need to fix this planet which is entering unknown and dangerous territory. After the A-bomb was dropped it was open season for us.. they had to come and start trying to fix the mess.. "They" try to remain as undetected as possible although that is impossible since people do remember but the result of their continual attempt to cover up their tracks is the scant evidence that is left to prove or disprove their existence.

Originally posted by Druscilla
reply to post by CaptainBeno

 

Ah the Drake Equation. On the other side of that, We have Fermi's Paradox: If there are indeed ETs out 'there', why haven't we seen them? (NOT including UFO reports, but more of a proper "seeing")

Since you bring up Fermi's Paradox, I recommend reading Inflation-Theory Implications for Extraterrestrial Visitation.

It has recently been argued that anthropic reasoning applied to inflation theory reinforces the prediction thatwe should find ourselves part of a large, galaxy-sized civilisation, thus strengthening Fermi’s paradox concerning “Where are they?” Furthermore, superstring and M-brane theory allow for the possibility of parallel
universes, some of which in principle could be habitable. In addition, discussion of such exotic transport
concepts as “traversable wormholes” now appears in the rigorous physics literature. As a result, the “We are
alone” solution to Fermi’s paradox, based on the constraints of earlier 20th century viewpoints, appears today
to be inconsistent with new developments in our best current physics and astrophysics theories. Therefore we
reexamine and reevaluate the present assumption that extraterrestrials or their probes are not in the vicinity of
Earth, and argue instead that some evidence of their presence might be found in certain high-quality UFO
reports. This study follows up on previous arguments that (1) interstellar travel for advanced civilizations is not
a priori ruled out by physical principles and therefore may be practicable, and (2) such advanced civilisations
may value the search for knowledge from uncontaminated species more than direct, interspecies communication,
thereby accounting for apparent covertness regarding their presence.

Super interesting stuff if your interested in that kind of thing.

The earth is fairly exploding with life, maybe Europa is under all that ice, maybe mars underground in some dark aquifer even so and especially if not we really should take better care of ourselves as at least in whatever sphere we may accomplish we are life's shepherd.

Originally posted by kronos11

Hahhaa... good one! I'm totally with you, I think we need a good toss in the deep water but because of what they term "free will" we can't have it so easy.

The reality is I didn't make the rules, they did. Buffonery it may be but this is as it has been since we began here, most of what has taken place in the form of "contact" in the past 50 years has been out of a desperate need to fix this planet which is entering unknown and dangerous territory. After the A-bomb was dropped it was open season for us.. they had to come and start trying to fix the mess.. "They" try to remain as undetected as possible although that is impossible since people do remember but the result of their continual attempt to cover up their tracks is the scant evidence that is left to prove or disprove their existence.

edit on 23-8-2012 by kronos11 because: (no reason given)

I still don't buy it.
The argument claims god-like benevolent aliens are in contact, yet, on the other hand, these same god-like aliens are incapable of effectively hiding themselves 100%, and erasing memories of "primitive" hairless monkeys without incident?

Were we so primitive as is claimed, there'd be no reason to hide which would lead one to reason that we're closer in development to any proposed visiting species than might be common thought, such that we're threat enough to hide from, which leads further in reason such that if we're threat enough to hide from, then, certainly it'd be in best interest to come out of the closet (unless there's nefarious intent).

It's loose, and sloppy reasoning, but, benevolent aliens in hiding just doesn't wash.

Originally posted by Druscilla
I still don't buy it.
The argument claims god-like benevolent aliens are in contact, yet, on the other hand, these same god-like aliens are incapable of effectively hiding themselves 100%, and erasing memories of "primitive" hairless monkeys without incident?

Did not say we were primitive, just feeble minded - in fact our DNA is coded with some profoundly advanced sequencing so our potential is quite vast - so much so that there are many humans now who can, at will, exhibit some of the higher functions such as telekinesis, remote viewing and astral projection.

Originally posted by Druscilla
Were we so primitive as is claimed, there'd be no reason to hide which would lead one to reason that we're closer in development to any proposed visiting species than might be common thought, such that we're threat enough to hide from, which leads further in reason such that if we're threat enough to hide from, then, certainly it'd be in best interest to come out of the closet (unless there's nefarious intent).

It's loose, and sloppy reasoning, but, benevolent aliens in hiding just doesn't wash.

You're looking at it the wrong way, they are not hiding at all. They don't want to interfere except when absolutely necessary (nuclear disarmament by UFO has been documented several times) and in the most minute areas such as retrieving data and genetic material from select individuals through abductions and by monitoring certain bloodlines.

Every time I see someone mention the Fermi Paradox this little gem comes to mind. Serious questions asked in an off humorous kind of way