devastating solar storms expected to knock out National Grid in 2013

reply to post by Trillium

Yes. Arcs are dangerous. But that is not what a geomagnetic storm would do. Transformers would essentially melt.

Originally posted by tnhiker

Originally posted by Trillium

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Trillium

 

Yes Geomagnetic storms does mostly produce E3 pulse but can produce E2 & E1

No.

The power surge will jump to sub-system
generator, scada, PLC, computor ETC......it all in the proper gounding of the system which most are not.

Yes, something plugged into the grid is at risk. Emergency generators are typically isolated from the grid.

NOW multiply that by 10,000 to 100,000 Power Station and Sub-Station down 3 to 5 year.

In a worst case scenario. Maybe.

You miss this part
I seen 120 KV line go bad fast to sub-system the ark flash is amazing just pure ionize air BOOM.

Your typically isolated generator will go up in smoke, I seen it happen with a bad ARK FLASH senario
and this was only 120,000 volt now think 200 KV line the 500 KV line
Now we have a SURGE off 1,000,000 volt induce on top off those line man get the popcorn out & a beer.

Arc Flash is a different scenario then the results of a geomagnetic storm.

Sorry but it is part off the scenario the surge will cause the arc Flash to the Sub-System.
Wish I still had picture of what PLC, SCADA card look like after a 13,800 volt Arc Flash goes thru
a 1/8" steel wall into the control and switching unit. At $20,000 to $30,000 per switching breaker ABB line

reply to post by lacrimaererum
Since when does msm share anything except what they are allowed to? This is either another keep them in fear so they will mass consume or it's to divert attention from something else.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Trillium

 

Yes. Arcs are dangerous. But that is not what a geomagnetic storm would do. Transformers would essentially melt.

edit on 8/22/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Come on Phage try and keep up.

The geomagnetic storm cause the damage to the transformer which start the high current.
The damage transformer cauce the high current surge in it and typically goes to the lease resistence.
Now the High current & voltage surge will cauce the Arc Flash to start.
The Arc Flash wil now take out your main switching breaker and mostlikely the switching control PLC
and flash back to your SCADA system BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM

Originally posted by lacrimaererum

Originally posted by Phage
What is an extraordinary power outage? Is that when the power really, really goes out as opposed to just going out?

not in great humour tonight? bit of a smart assed comment?

I laughed out loud I thought it was very humurous.

In fact I am still laughing.

Oh on topic, these doom thread get very redundant after the millionth one.

reply to post by Trillium

You are talking about what happens at the transformer station? What does that have to do with emergency generators which are isolated?

Where does that 1,000,000 volts come from?

I highly doubt they can predict this, but it is nice to see news sources are educating the public on the chance that these type of events do happen. They have happened. Maybe not on the scale that some people would like to imagine, but still a very serious and scary experience. I have heard of this happening twice in Canada and during one of those events the back-up generators at the Nuclear facility in Ontario had problems coming online. They where pretty close to a serious situation in the cooling chambers of that plant.

reply to post by lacrimaererum


It could be really bad, but you do know that in the near future,
an electromagnetic event will influence Twits,blogs, and chats.

Firewood and Acoustic Musicals Instruments always work.

They are really beautiful things at all times.

reply to post by Phage


They would melt.
That is certain Phage.
My Stars....

reply to post by Phage


Being underground during summer temperatures are cooler and in the winter its warmer. Think adobe house concept just much larger.

reply to post by Phage


I can tell you. While emergency generators are galvanic separated from the grid, they are linked up to the necessary switching unit. If induced voltage hits the grid on the long 400+ kV lines, the transformators will transform it down / bridge the voltage down to the lower kV grids. Now if there is an voltage offset from 40.000 volts on your 230/400V power grid, your galvanic isolation is nullified because that arc will just bridge either the switching relais or directly over the contacts.

This will fry the windings of your generator, viola.

Edit: To make it clear, the switching unit that hooks up the generator to the existing infrastructure after power failure is the weak point. 40kV offset should display as an example to get the point, that an ark flash is possible any time higher voltage as intended hits the appliance because the switching contacts are just not planned for it.

reply to post by lacrimaererum

Next year the sun is due to peak in current 11year solar storm cycle.

So what? The article says

Early next year, the sun will reach the peak of its 11-year activity cycle, which puts the planet at greater risk of such storms.

But also later says

'Next year is a peak in activity. However, we can't find a link between these peaks and the major events like CMEs. You shouldn't breath a sigh of relief and think you are safe, this is a constant risk.'

www.dailymail.co.uk...

Looks like double talking bullspit to me. So why the emphasis on early 2013? No one has given any reason for that time.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Trillium

 

You are talking about what happens at the transformer station? What does that have to do with emergency generators which are isolated?

Where does that 1,000,000 volts come from?

edit on 8/23/2012 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Unfortunately Phage, what Verschickter said is correct. Emergency generators can be affected by a surge that arcs due to the switching system.

If enough current is induced in the lines, it can arc across a good distance across breakers and heavy duty relay contacts. Its as he said "the weak point in the system"

While the nuclear pile's control rods are gravity fed and the reactor can be shut down quickly, it's the continued cooling pumps for spent rods that are the concern in something like this.

The only way emergency generators can be kept safe is if they have disconnecting lines that are removed, and have to manually be put into place. But nuclear safety requirements require a switching system, because of the quickness that they need to come on line.

However, I WOULD like to point out the following things:

A) Next years solar maximum is predicted to be less powerful than the last one back in 2002.
B) Due to the constant monitoring of the sun, solar flares and CME's can be seen happening, and, unlike other natural disasters (IE earthquakes, etc), we have many hours or days to prepare for such an event.
C) Power companies pay attention to solar weather now (unlike just a decade or so ago). If a solar event has the possibility of creating another 1859 event, they will have plenty of time to isolate their systems like emergency back up generators so that no arcing can happen.

I think....

The Sun is not that predictable. It's full of surprises. This type of scenario could very well happen today or in the next one hundred years. No one knows...

If the power were to go down... All power.... We would no doubt revert back to the dark ages for that period of time until power is restored.

Life as we know it will be changed, for sure.

Thanks for the reminder OP !

You know,it never hurts to create a thread like this, whether you wish to call it "doom porn," or otherwise, regardless how unlikely the threat may seem, there is still a threat there.

We are all guilty of complacency, the "It will never happen to me !" mentality, althought this for the best part is true, it is only in hindsight we come to realise the inevitable truth...

Anything can happen, any time, any place, anywhere.

The only reason next year is being earmarked is purely to do with being the peak of the cycle.

I just hope the governments are taking the issue seriously enough, and not just paying the scenario lip service, and I really hope the National Grid has run some tests to back up their appraisal of the scenario should it occur.

Originally posted by MamaJ
I think....

The Sun is not that predictable. It's full of surprises. This type of scenario could very well happen today or in the next one hundred years. No one knows...

If the power were to go down... All power.... We would no doubt revert back to the dark ages for that period of time until power is restored.

Life as we know it will be changed, for sure.

You are correct MamaJ in that the sun can surprise us.

However, again, solar flares and CMEs are just like hurricanes that we have on Earth: the form, we watch and track them, and people in a given area can have days or even over a week to get prepared.

If a large solar flare or CME were to erupt from the sun suddenly, right now, this very minute, and in the right direction to hit the Earth, it will take many hours or even days to hit us. The charged particles do not travel as fast as light, they travel a lot slower.
So since we are watching the sun all the time, we'd see the event happening in 8 minutes, but the harmful part of the flare or CME would take a lot longer to get here.

Because of that, we have time to prepare for it: power companies know that they can shut power down just before it hits. By doing that, you reduce the amount of current that are on the lines. And by doing that, you can keep systems from overloading due to the extra current being induced by one of these events.

It won't keep it from happening to everything, however, doing this, and isolating systems, reduces the amount of damage. This makes it to where only certain places might be without power again for extended periods, unlike say 20 years ago or before, we would have been completely blind sided, and the damage would have been catastrophic, leaving some places without power for years until new substations and generators could be manufactured (they don't keep spares laying around, heeheheheh. Too expensive).

So yes, the sun can surprise us, but we'd still have time to prepare.

He " believes" ... now that's the word, that says you can ignore it.

That something stellar can hit us, is obvious and we've always known. A solar flare, a medior ... whatever. But this is just fear mongering ... trying to capitalize on public fear, and should be ignored. People who "believe" should go to church ...

However, what this guy doesn't seem to be saying though ... is that solar radiation has been quite off this summer. And I hear no information on that at all. Which tells me, that these so called "experts" are just morons ...

Nobody has wondered why they're sweating like pigs, in 23 degrees celcius? In 27 degrees here around the northern hemisphere, these past days, it's been devestating ... nobody has reported the radiation anomaly. Not even here on ATS, has there been anything on it. I've got people that are used to live in over 40 degrees celcius, complaining about 23 degrees. And when I went much further south for a few days, it was hotter, over 30 degrees. Yet, still not this bad ... it's radiation effect. No question about it. But not a word.

What are the chances of a flare, from the sun, hitting earth directly? First, it has to be directed 3D directly at earth ... and that's about a chance in a million. And then, it has to be timed, precisely so it will hit the earth head on ... we're talking about a one in a gasillion here. And guess what, life has been on earth for a long long time, and during this time ... it's probably had lots of hits. Why should the next year hits, from a sun that is cooling ... be hotter or worse, than they were from a hotter sun in the past?

Makes no sense, whatsoever ...

Yeah, there is danger ... always is. But no reason to go bonkers over one more doomsday prophecy. File this one, with all the other ones ... under "X-Files".

reply to post by eriktheawful


I agree, we would have time to prepare and hope " they" would take heed in doing so.

The what ifs still creep into my mind though. Lol

The main concern if this were to happen will be with GPS. I'm not sure how we can prepare avoiding that issue.

Originally posted by MamaJ
reply to post by eriktheawful

 

I agree, we would have time to prepare and hope " they" would take heed in doing so.

The what ifs still creep into my mind though. Lol

The main concern if this were to happen will be with GPS. I'm not sure how we can prepare avoiding that issue.

Well, you know, humans got along just fine before GPS....

Compass, maps......using s sextant at sea.


Mater of fact, I trained on how to use one while I was in the Navy.

What I would be more concerned about is communications satellites going down and cell phone's not being available for months or more.

So many people out there would go into some sort of shock and widthdraw...........

I lived in Naples, Italy in the early 80's for 3 years. We didn't have a telephone. Got along just fine.

My problem with this thread is in the title -- the term "Expected to".

I understand that the power grid can "possibly" be disrupted by solar events, but where are we getting the idea that this time (as opposed to all of the other times we have had a solar max) that the national power grid is "Expected" to be knocked out?

What makes the people who say this so sure that they are expecting it to happen? Why didn't the national power grid get wiped out in 2000, during the last solar maximum? The newest studies of the coming solar maximum (a prediction just updated this month) indicate that it may be a relatively tame one.